Post#889 » by ImNotMcDiSwear » Thu Jun 29, 2017 1:24 pm
TL;DR: Rambling
So as of now, we have under contract:
Bledsoe/Ulis/James
Booker/Barbosa/Reed/Millsap/Knight
Warren/Jackson/Jones Jr.
Chriss/Bender/Dudley/Peters
Chandler
with at least one of Alex or Alan likely to stick in RFA.
I'm actually a bit relieved that Duds will be out to start the season, as this allows us to develop a rotation entirely devoid of him, which is my preference, given the five young forwards that have earned development time.
If you narrow this list to guys who will certainly be in the rotation, I think you're at Bledsoe-Ulis-Booker-Warren-Jackson-Jones Jr.-Chriss-Bender-Chandler. That's 9 deep. I think if we keep one or both of Len or Williams, that player makes the rotation as well. That's 10, likely booting Jones Jr. to the 10 spot.
Given our depth at the 2, I think you can assume that Millsap does not stick. I doubt we let go of Barbosa, though, unless we really do plan to go after a big FA (which I doubt).
So going forward:
1. We all know Knight needs to go. We'd all be happiest, I think, if we ended up with no long-term salary on the books in his place. Otherwise, the shorter the contract the better, IMO. I'm even okay losing a 2nd rounder to see him off. A 1st? No. Practically, we should only be concerned about that last contract year, which would overlap with Booker's extension. Not a killer if we can't lose it, but certainly not a good thing. In any case, he'd be off the books before the cap-killing extension trifecta of 2021 comes around.
2. Because our long-term planning is likely focused on 2021, Chandler and Dudley's contracts should not concern. The issue with Chandler isn't the contract but the PT - I'd rather see any one of young guys - including Alex and Alan - get that PT in his stead. Unless he's ready to play mascot, we should move Tyson, locker room presence or no. This will probably be the trickiest move to make, as I can't imagine many teams wanting to take Tyson on without sending out other long-term salary. And we shouldn't accept long-term salary in return unless we plan to play the payee.
3. It would be almost impossible to deal both Chandler and Knight without taking back major salary. There is only one spot on the roster for major salary to fit, and that's the 5. This is probably what we should be focused on. There are upgrades at the center position available - Jordan and Drummond both make about $20 mil per; Valanciunas makes $15; Vucevic makes $12... Kanter (blech), Monroe with $20 and $17 I think... Biyombo and Mahinmi each with $17... Dieng with $16, Robin Lopez with $13, even... there's more. The league has a ton of highly-paid 5s.
Len will almost certainly be a better bargain than most of that list. He could be useful as a S&T component if we want to make a deal on this front. Alan will almost certainly be an even better bargain, and we should keep him and put him in the rotation if we can.
Ideally, I might even prefer to move Chandler for nothing, re-sign Alan and Alex, rotate Alan and use Alex as the emergency big until he shows more. But it's probably more practical to trade for one of the guys listed above if we can. Jordan would be the best addition, IMO, if he could be had at a reasonable price. Otherwise, going with Drummond and Williams at the 5 might work.
I can envision several multiple-team scenarios wherein we send out Chandler and Knight with maybe a 1st and 2 2ds for Drummond. If we wanted Jordan, I expect the conversation would have to start with TJ Warren.
4. Bledsoe. I think he's a great fit with the current squad, if Bender and Jackson really are going to be given some of the playmaking responsibilities (which they should). There's talk about Jrue Holiday getting $25 million. If money matters (and it does), I expect a fair deal for Bledsoe is two first round picks - and we're not really desperate to move him. If we got a fair deal for him, I would be open to using those picks to facilitate the unloading of salary. If we wanted to go after Deandre Jordan, though, it would be a better idea to keep Bled around.
I don't think we would really lose anything by letting him play out his contract with us, even if we had to let him walk at the end of that period. We still have a nice treasure trove of assets (though of course it would be better to have more). He's not a burden at all on our fiscal situation, he fits with our roster, he's a good character guy, and worst case scenario (for him) he'll be one of our three best players next year. We're in a solid bargaining position as a result.
5. Conclusion. We have flexibility to do a lot of things this summer, but it's all about the 5 spot and finding good landing spots for Chandler and Knight, who no longer fit. The core of the roster - Ulis, Booker, Jackson, Warren, Chriss, Bender, [Alan] is basically set. The only piece loose enough to be pried off is Warren, and of course it is possible Williams gets a surprise offer (I hope not!). We don't have room for more forwards or need of a backup 2. We can stand to be patient. We're in great position. Let the development continue!