Who jumps and falls below OKC this offseason?

[bondom34]

JE didn't post that, and that would be heavily influence by prior years' data. But I don't think it's some outlandish claim that having better box score numbers doesn't equate to better players.

we're not talking about comparing shane battier to kobe bryant, this is russell westbrook to russell westbrook.

in this case, i do think it's an outlandish claim. westbrook's boxscore productivity on offense is better across the board this season compared to last with the exception of a small difference in orb%. the biggest difference is (wait for it) the quality of his teammates.

but anyway, you'd really suggest based on single year npi rapm that westbrook had a more impactful year last season than this season? you're making that claim, here?

I think he was better, but I don't think it was the massive gap you do, nor do I think he's bound to fall off some cliff that wouldn't be more than negated by improvement from other players. You using box score as the sole measure of his play and pushing that they're bound to fall off is just more of a shift from normal thought.

[slick_watts]

JE didn't post that, and that would be heavily influence by prior years' data. But I don't think it's some outlandish claim that having better box score numbers doesn't equate to better players.

we're not talking about comparing shane battier to kobe bryant, this is russell westbrook to russell westbrook.

in this case, i do think it's an outlandish claim. westbrook's boxscore productivity on offense is better across the board this season compared to last with the exception of a small difference in orb%. the biggest difference is (wait for it) the quality of his teammates.

but anyway, you'd really suggest based on single year npi rapm that westbrook had a more impactful year last season than this season? you're making that claim, here?

I think he was better, but I don't think it was the massive gap you do, nor do I think he's bound to fall off some cliff that wouldn't be more than negated by improvement from other players. You using box score as the sole measure of his play and pushing that they're bound to fall off is just more of a shift from normal thought.

dude. you keep putting words into my mouth, developing this habit of transforming my statements into some kind of fringe hyperbole. i did not say, anywhere, that westbrook is 'bound to fall off some cliff', or even that any dip in productivity couldn't be made up. i said: "a step back from westbrook of some magnitude". i think that's a reasonable expectation considering he was top 10 in minutes played during a record breaking season with a greater workload than anyone except perhaps lebron.

my use of box score stats as a sole measure of westbrook's play? well, duh. he has boxscore bests virtually across the board despite the record breaking usage. he produced 30 points and 10 assists a game. but i guess his single year non prior informed rapm has hit his relative impact right on the nose. bring this discussion to apbrmetrics or the stats board i'd be interested to see if the 'normal thought' is that westbrook's season was better in 2015-16.

and you're even acknowledging he was better in 2016-17, so what is even the point of bringing up the rapm difference in the first place? you either take it for what it is or don't, you can't attack me with it saying i'm wrong and then half agree with me.

[bondom34]

we're not talking about comparing shane battier to kobe bryant, this is russell westbrook to russell westbrook.

in this case, i do think it's an outlandish claim. westbrook's boxscore productivity on offense is better across the board this season compared to last with the exception of a small difference in orb%. the biggest difference is (wait for it) the quality of his teammates.

but anyway, you'd really suggest based on single year npi rapm that westbrook had a more impactful year last season than this season? you're making that claim, here?

I think he was better, but I don't think it was the massive gap you do, nor do I think he's bound to fall off some cliff that wouldn't be more than negated by improvement from other players. You using box score as the sole measure of his play and pushing that they're bound to fall off is just more of a shift from normal thought.

dude. you keep putting words into my mouth, developing this habit of transforming my statements into some kind of fringe hyperbole. i did not say, anywhere, that westbrook is 'bound to fall off some cliff', or even that any dip in productivity couldn't be made up. i said: "a step back from westbrook of some magnitude". i think that's a reasonable expectation considering he was top 10 in minutes played during a record breaking season with a greater workload than anyone except perhaps lebron.

my use of box score stats as a sole measure of westbrook's play? well, duh. he has boxscore bests virtually across the board despite the record breaking usage. he produced 30 points and 10 assists a game. but i guess his single year non prior informed rapm has hit his relative impact right on the nose. bring this discussion to apbrmetrics or the stats board i'd be interested to see if the 'normal thought' is that westbrook's season was better in 2015-16.

and you're even acknowledging he was better in 2016-17, so what is even the point of bringing up the rapm difference in the first place? you either take it for what it is or don't, you can't attack me with it saying i'm wrong and then half agree with me.

And you're putting words in my mouth here.

He was similar to what he'd been in past years. I expect no MAJOR decline. I also expect marginal improvement from those around him. I don't think he's going to average the box score numbers but I don't think he was massively better than prior years, nor do I think he gets much worse for 4-5 more years. Anything he loses (which won't be a ton) would be more than compensated by others' improvements.

That should be simple enough to understand. You're generally really logical and for some reason there are a few topics where that just seems to totally go out the window, this being one of them.

[slick_watts]

westbrook just ts'ed the same as 2015-16 on 10% higher usage and he was 'similar to what he'd been in past years'? with lower tov?
sorry, we're not going to agree on this point at all. i do not expect any major decline, but i do expect some. and there is always the possibility of an injury. westbrook had a remarkably healthy season- there's only one direction that could go if it changes at all.

expecting marginal improvement from those around him is reasonable, i said as much in my original reply. you don't think he's going to get 'much worse' for 4-5 more years? he's going to be only marginally worse into his 30's? is there precedent for this with a player like westbrook? even lebron's declined and he doesn't have a surgically repaired knee.

as for anything he loses being more than compensated by others' improvements, we can debate that- but you're just picking on one small piece out of my reply. losing taj gibson is also a big hit. and the potential loss of andre roberson.

what improvements do you anticipate from the players around him?

[bondom34]

I think they don't suck offensively. And I'm not sold both Dre and Taj are gone, I think at least one stays.

Shockingly, I don't think a roster that's mostly 25 and under crumbles before our eyes.

[slick_watts]

I think they don't suck offensively. And I'm not sold both Dre and Taj are gone, I think at least one stays.

Shockingly, I don't think a roster that's mostly 25 and under crumbles before our eyes.

i'm not sold on both leaving, either. just acknowledging the possibility. it seems like at least one will be gone, though. and both is possible given our salary structure / presumed reticence to pay tax this year. in any event, these are factors that should be weighed if we are making predictions about the season.

even royce young, the homer of homers, said in his recent espn article the thunder young players haven't developed quite as hoped last year. what advances they make collectively is an important factor. i'm not very high on any of the non-adams / oladipo guys except abrines, and even then it's more of a 'this guy fits a need that no one else on the roster does'.

given the performances last year, i think there's a wide gamut of possibilities for the progress of our young guys, which makes for a lot of uncertainty. i was acknowledging that uncertainty in the original reply. will their improvement make up for potential losses (return to orbit for westbrook, losing either taj or roberson or both)? a fair question.

[bondom34]

"Haven't developed as hoped" was literally directed at a single player, who was a rookie starting on a team he wasn't supposed to. Being the eternal pessimist seems to really be stretching here, I'm not even overly optimistic at the roster but expecting some leaps by a bunch of other teams while the Thunder step back seems to really be pushing a narrative when we currently have no proof of it looking likely.

[slick_watts]

"Haven't developed as hoped" was literally directed at a single player, who was a rookie starting on a team he wasn't supposed to. Being the eternal pessimist seems to really be stretching here, I'm not even overly optimistic at the roster but expecting some leaps by a bunch of other teams while the Thunder step back seems to really be pushing a narrative when we currently have no proof of it looking likely.

uh, i didn't predict any leaps by any teams? i was just commenting on the thunder and some of the possibilities. are any of the possibilities i proposed out of line? i don't think they were. you've already agreed that losing one of taj gibson or andre roberson is probable. i don't think you'd disagree that losing both is a possibility that should be considered. you seem to have settled on the possibility of westbrook at least staying the same- i'd argue that some drop off should be expected (even if it's not a lot), but whatever. minor point.

i'm sure you're as iffy about a lot of the young talent as i am, and would agree that the development curve of them collectively is uncertain.

where am i off-base?

[bondom34]

No, they're all possibilities. There's a shot Phoenix takes a leap and Bledsoe/Booker turn into Curry and Klay, surpassing OKC this year and that Lonzo Ball is the next Kidd his rookie season. It's unlikely, and I wouldn't bet on either though.

In essence, what's most likely is that this team marginally improves and ends up similar to where they were last year, in that 4-8 mishmash of teams unless something changes in the next 2 months. We haven't even hit free agency yet so nobody knows.

[slick_watts]

In essence, what's most likely is that this team marginally improves and ends up similar to where they were last year, in that 4-8 mishmash of teams unless something changes in the next 2 months. We haven't even hit free agency yet so nobody knows.

this is literally just about what i said, except i acknowledged the possibility of missing the playoffs should the team perform at about the same level as last season.

1.0 srs puts them anywhere from 5th seed to out of the playoff picture, depending on the relative strength of the conference.

the glib comment that bledsoe / booker turn into curry / thompson notwithstanding.

[bondom34]

In essence, what's most likely is that this team marginally improves and ends up similar to where they were last year, in that 4-8 mishmash of teams unless something changes in the next 2 months. We haven't even hit free agency yet so nobody knows.

this is literally just about what i said, except i acknowledged the possibility of missing the playoffs should the team perform at about the same level as last season.

1.0 srs puts them anywhere from 5th seed to out of the playoff picture, depending on the relative strength of the conference.

the glib comment that bledsoe / booker turn into curry / thompson notwithstanding.

I don't see a way they miss the playoffs performing at last season's level. Other than that, and the Westbrook thing, I agree with you. I don't think he falls off impact-wise much, and unless he's injured or gone I don't see them missing the playoffs because I don't see anyone behind them making that large a leap. They were a 1.14 SRS, and Portland was the 8th seed with a -.23 , which was 9th in SRS. So the 9 seed jumping that much to me seems less likely than anything.

[slick_watts]

I don't see a way they miss the playoffs performing at last season's level.

our pythagorean w-l was only a game better than 9th seed denver's last year. are you serious?

[bondom34]

I don't see a way they miss the playoffs performing at last season's level.

our pythagorean w-l was only a game better than 9th seed denver's last year. are you serious?

Why do you use SRS to compare OKC and Denver, completely ignoring that Denver was 8th seed by SRS and Portland was 9th?

[slick_watts]

I don't see a way they miss the playoffs performing at last season's level.

our pythagorean w-l was only a game better than 9th seed denver's last year. are you serious?

Why do you use SRS to compare OKC and Denver, completely ignoring that Denver was 8th seed by SRS and Portland was 9th?

the srs difference between okc, denver, portland, etc. last year was within the boundaries of typical w-l variance no matter how you slice it.

pyth. w-l was just a striking way of showing this re: denver.

[bondom34]

our pythagorean w-l was only a game better than 9th seed denver's last year. are you serious?

Why do you use SRS to compare OKC and Denver, completely ignoring that Denver was 8th seed by SRS and Portland was 9th?

the srs difference between okc, denver, portland, etc. last year was within the boundaries of typical w-l variance no matter how you slice it.

pyth. w-l was just a striking way of showing this re: denver.

In that case, they were 3 wins clear of the playoffs and I'd venture a guess the Clippers are substantially worse this year as well.

[slick_watts]

Why do you use SRS to compare OKC and Denver, completely ignoring that Denver was 8th seed by SRS and Portland was 9th?

the srs difference between okc, denver, portland, etc. last year was within the boundaries of typical w-l variance no matter how you slice it.

pyth. w-l was just a striking way of showing this re: denver.

In that case, they were 3 wins clear of the playoffs and I'd venture a guess the Clippers are substantially worse this year as well.

sure, this is all subject to the relative strength of the conference. which is what i said. a 1.0 srs team not making the playoffs isn't outlandish, though- even last year.

[bondom34]

the srs difference between okc, denver, portland, etc. last year was within the boundaries of typical w-l variance no matter how you slice it.

pyth. w-l was just a striking way of showing this re: denver.

In that case, they were 3 wins clear of the playoffs and I'd venture a guess the Clippers are substantially worse this year as well.

sure, this is all subject to the relative strength of the conference. which is what i said. a 1.0 srs team not making the playoffs isn't outlandish, though- even last year.

Given the current landscape of the NBA, where we've pretty much got mass aggregations of superstars and multiple teams with no stars or at most one non-superstar, it would be rather surprising to me. The landscape has changed a ton in the last 5 years, and yes, I'd be very surprised.

[Dn4sty]

Buddy Hield becoming Steph and WCS becoming an all NBA center, but ZERO Thunder players getting any better. Posters are losing their minds.

[spearsy23]

Buddy Hield becoming Steph and WCS becoming an all NBA center, but ZERO Thunder players getting any better. Posters are losing their minds.

To be fair, he did say absolute worst case scenario. Though I'd personally list 'meteor crashing into thunder practice facility leaving only Kyle singler, Semaj christon, and Billy Donovan alive' as the absolute worst case. Though we would get out of kanter's contract in that scenario, so you win some you lose some.

[Patches Perry]

Well I guess it's true that we need to wait this summer out to really know for sure.