shrink wrote:Sugarless wrote:shrink wrote:If you are going to compete with the Warriors, this is the way that it will have to be done. GSW is paying Steph, Durant, Draymond, and Klay. If they look ahead like this, it's going to be a fortune. However, they will gain added revenues from winning championships. I agree Gorgui gets moved later, just like GSW had to let Harrison Barnes go.
Wait, they *will* gain added revenues from winning championships? Then it's a given they not only will get to compete with probably the best team ever, but also beat them and everyone else? And more than once?
This is not NBA 2K. Competing with the Warriors should be the least of Minnesota's concerns this summer. These Wolves have not made the playoffs yet and they will continue to have weak links in the roster (i.e. an extremely poor and thin bench if you plan on giving one player that kind of money) and need to gel as a team regardless of who comes this summer. Having 4 max guys doesn't guarantee anything if they don't have a supporting cast or they don't click once they step on the court.
Going hard after a guy like Lowry at +30M would place a tremendous amount of stress on the Wolves financially over the next few years. It could also mean that two years from now, if Butler decides to sign with a different team instead of staying in Minnesota, you find yourself with KAT, Wiggins (who may or may not deserve his max contract by then) and a 33yo Kyle Lowry, and without the ability to sign quality free agents anymore. Hardly a team to be thinking about winning championships.
Nobody in this league is paying +115M to 4 players, not even the Warriors will after they sign Curry and KD this summer, and they have 2 of the best players in history (Wiggins and Towns are obviously not that, Jimmy Butler is not that, and neither are Lowry, Jrue or whoever you bring). They could also easily lose Klay Thompson in 2 years when he's a FA, before they even have to pay Draymond Green a new contract.
I'm sorry but it's a terrible, shortsighted idea and if Thibs and Layden have just one person on board that understands the cap implications of such a move, it just won't happen. Or it will against all common sense, and the Wolves will lose one of those 4 pieces along the way, cause it just isn't sustainable.
Ok, let me break this down for you.
1. Curry will make $28 mil next year, and Durant $32. Both can sign 1+1 deals to maximize their control in team decisions and eventual salaries. Both can get 20% raises the following year, so they can make $34 and $38. Klay and Draymond are still under contract for $36.5, so that's already $108.5 for four players. Not quite $115, but I think close enough that you can't immediately dismiss $115.
2. I don't know if MIN will take that path, but if the goal is to win a ring, it will take multiple superstars for any team to beat the multiple superstars of the Warriors.
3. It's nice to look down the road, but preventing actions now because you are worrying about paying luxury taxes in the July of 2020 does not factor in the volatility of the nba. Imagine if we based our decisions from the team in 2014 (Love, Zach, Derrick Williams) because we thought we knew where we would be now! I don't have a clear picture of February of 2020, who will succeed or fail, what players might be traded, if Jimmy Butler re-signs here, etc.
4. Superstar deals are expensive, but they are almost always valuable contracts. KAT or Wiggins will make the max, but because the CBA restricts the price to a percentage of the cap, these deals are almost always under market price. I don't know of Lowry would be under market price after three years, but KAT and Wiggins certainly would. One way to measure the best teams is by how much production they get for the money, and teams with productive max deals and rookie scale contracts do well. What I am saying is that even if everything was identical to our predictions for 2020, the value of those contracts gives a team the opportunity to trade them, and even make a profit.
I am probably one of the most money-conscious posters in RealGM, and I applaud you for being aware of luxury tax ramifications. Too many posters simply say, "our owner is rich, I want a better player now, so who cares - not my money!" That's not realistic. However, right now, with Towns on rookie scale for two more years, and Wiggins for one, it gives the Wolves an opportunity to not just sign a max player, but to stay under the lux for one and maybe even two years, so they wouldn't even pay lux taxes until year 3, and the repeater tax far down the road. These are precisely the times when you hope to grab a max deal.
There are no indications that KD and Curry will take the full extra 20% in a year, regardless of the 1+1 contract. If anything, they've said they're willing to sacrifice some money so the team can re-sign guys like Iguodala and Livingston this summer, and they'll probably do so again in the future as the Warriors will have to make a huge effort if they want to keep Klay Thompson on the team, only one year after their supposed 20% jump. But even if that happened, you're still not taking into account 3 critical factors:
1. The difference from 108M to 115M invested in 4 players when paying the luxury tax is huge. Even if you don't account for the repeater tax (which the Wolves wouldn't be paying until a few years from now, that's right), once you add the rest of the salaries on your roster it can take you from paying 1.75$ per dollar over the luxury tax threshold to 3.25$.
2. The most important aspect of those presumed 108M is the fact that they would only be paying that for a year. One year later (2019) they would have to re-sign Klay Thompson if they wanted to keep the core intact, and in another year they would face a new critical increase with Green's new deal. *If* they were willing to pay them both, which is yet to be seen, cause even the Warriors have a limit.
3. And this takes us to the third factor: Minnesota is a small market with little appeal for most outsiders, not the most loyal or best established fanbase, they've been out of the playoffs for 13 years already and they won't have superstars even if they add someone like Lowry (their best chance is Towns, but it may take a while yet). They're second to last in franchise valuation according to Forbes at 770M, and even after their most succesful season ever, with a true superstar and one of the league's icons in KG and two other stars in the team, they couldn't make it past 16th in the league. The Warriors play in the Bay Area and are moving to SF in the future. They have two all-time top-20 players to go along with Klay and Green, they've dominated the league for 3 years already and they were a playoff team before that, they're currently the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league at 2.6B (and growing at an extreme rate, not only for the product they put on the court but also in other areas), and they've always had a great fanbase even through years of constant losing. So to sum it up, they have inherent advantages in terms of location, they're excellent at marketing their brand, they have at least two future first ballot HOFers, and they have maybe the strongest team in the history of the league, with a pretty good chance at becoming a dynasty. They can afford to pay 4 post TV deal max contract, and it's still not sure it'll happen. The Wolves have none of that, they're on a completely different situation as a franchise, and you want them to go beyond what the Dubs will be paying the next couple of years like you're going to fight them with their own weapons. I'm sorry, but I think it's preposterous, and an excellent way to burden the future of a young team that up until one week ago had the same fans asking for patience.