Post#53 » by Senior » Thu Jun 29, 2017 9:12 pm
kind of wanted to get the ball rolling on Hakeem vs Shaq, especially peak vs peak
So Shaq's peak is almost universally seen as top 5, and even top 2 right after MJ - checks off everything you'd want in a superstar year - overwhelming dominance, great RS W-L, title, played good competition...it's all there. we all remember Shaq dunking on people's heads and scoring like there's no one's there.
however, I don't believe Hakeem is *that* far behind either. 93-95 Hakeem and 00-02 Shaq are taking essentially the same offensive load at ~30 PPG (Hakeem's TS% is actually a tiny bit better because of FTs), similar passers, similarly resilient offenses in the playoffs. Hakeem also has superior range, ballhandling which means that he can shoulder a higher volume than Shaq as defenses have a little more control on denying Shaq the ball, which is really something they had to do anyway because if Shaq gets the ball too deep it's over. some teams such as the 00 Blazers were able to significantly limit Shaq's volume (for example in Game 7 Shaq like 9 FGA/12 FTA) overall, I would say that Shaq is more successful on his offensive opportunities whereas Hakeem can take more offensive opportunities. Shaq's track record of offenses kinda kills Hakeem's, but I'm not sure how much of that is due to superior offensive support such as Penny/Eddie Jones/Kobe. Rockets offense with Clyde in the 95 playoffs was already excellent.
where I start to tilt to Hakeem is defense; 00 was really Shaq's only season where he was giving 100% (or close) effort on defense, and it resulted in the #1 RS defense. his defensive effort was always up and down and he usually did fine in the playoffs, but he was still susceptible to PNR plays, not closing out, or not getting back in transition. he simply wasn't capable of defending the way Hakeem was no matter the level of effort. Teams such as 00 Portland and 02 Sacramento could take advantage - Portland's offense was rolling for Games 5/6 and even most of Game 7 and they nearly made the comeback. 97-98 Jazz annihilated LA on the defensive end too. the only Shaq-led defense that was playing above expected was like 01. even in 00 their DRTG went to 107.5 up from 98.2 in the RS. not really sure what that is in relative DRTG but his effort didn't make him an absolutely elite defender. he still has useful defensive traits - still a fine rim protector as long as he can stay near the rim and have his perimeter guys funnel the ball to him, and he only got dunked on like twice in 10 years because of the intimidation factor. but his mobility doesn't measure up to the all-timers.
I mentioned the team offenses as a point to Shaq earlier, however, Shaq's track record of team defenses isn't great. lot of average/mediocre defenses. 95-96 Orlando were 13th/12th, 97-98 LA were around 10th, 99/01 LA were dismal due to weak effort (like 23rd/21st), 02 was 7th. on the flip side you have Hakeem's Rockets top 4 every year from 87-94 except 1992 when they were 10th (point against Hakeem for slight sandbagging). they were 1st in 1990 and he probably should've gotten the DPOY over Rodman. Hakeem's defense is on the shortlist of all-timers - fantastic motor, balance, footwork, rim protection, can stay on most perimeter players on switches, fantastic BBIQ, great in transition (Game 7 1993 vs SEA is an unbelievable display), shutdown man defender (destroyed Ewing in 94) he's got the whole package. IIRC someone (ElGee, maybe) had data showing Hakeem's Rockets were playing at above expected levels on D from 93-95. 00 Shaq doesn't touch 93 Hakeem defensively.
so that's where I stand on Hakeem vs Shaq. I don't think anyone in history was better than Hakeem on offense to make up for the margin he's better than Shaq on defense, but maybe I'm wrong. I also really value Hakeem's lack of weaknesses - you could maybe argue that Shaq's ceiling is higher, but he can be taken advantage of more easily as well. considering playoff format I've always been a big believer in matchups - and I believe Hakeem matches up with teams more easily than Shaq does, even if Shaq is a bigger mismatch on offense.