2017 Nets Offseason Thread II

[Keith Van Horn]

at what point do we give up and just sign shabazz muhammed to a 2 year 10 million deal?

[Prokorov]

I don't think you can really compare Lin and Green when they are completely different type of player. You also have to add in the consideration that Grizzlies offense is a slow tempo (Atleast from what I know I don't watch them much). I think a more comparable player would be Trevor Booker and if you look at it in an eye test perspective, Green seems to be a much more capable player where he has a lot more tools than what Booker brings. It's really hard to compare stats when the Grizzlies runs a very slow tempo. So surely, statistics will not tell the whole truth in this situation. In perspective, if Green is given a higher volume he would produce more. Watching his highlights. He utilize a lot of different moves in different situations. Booker is a completely different type where he relies purely on momentum shift.

you pay for impact. doesnt matter lin/green play different spots they would both eat the same amount of cap. you want Lin-type production for that 13 million range.

trevor booker at 13M would be really really bad. at 9 million its about were he should be which is good.

pace adjusted stats tell the same story. and the big risk with low volume guys is with more volume their efficiency/shooting% goes down proportionally.

Right now greent akes only great shots. if you feed him volume, less of hsi shots are great attempts and his % goes down as does his impact.

Green is a role player. and we dont know if he is a solid Lin type impact role guy or an acy/booker low impact type role guy. so you need to be careful with his salary.

it also says alot if the grizz arent willing to give him 13 million and are in need f young talent

Man the way you reason things out is literally based on pure statistics. Basketball is not some sort of Billy Beane moment. Where you can just pure stats. Basketball is not as linear as baseball . Where every situation can be equate. I'm definitely an advocate of mathematics but advance metrics is simply not there yet in basketball. Maybe in baseball or poker but not bball. I'll explain myself later gotta go to the gym.


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Its not just statistics... but statistics are a big part of it. you go on the eyeball test and dont factor in value vs. cap% then you end up with a team of great guys who win 34 games and you spend well over the cap.

there is a reason most teams(especially the nets) spend tens of millions of dollars on advanced analytic data. because it helps you project a player and determine his impact on winning. of course fit, the eye test, effort all matter and matter a TON.

but you cant go out and just say "this guys is grea tand is a steal at 13 million! he is a great shooter and defender" a nd then ignore the facts which show while he shot great it was on super low volume, and he wanst actually a great defender.

if we sign him for 13M and all we get is a slightly better trevor booker its goint to be egg on our face.

[Prokorov]

at what point do we give up and just sign shabazz muhammed to a 2 year 10 million deal?

when pigs fly

joking. but i dont want him here. at any cost. i dont like his attitude or body language or fit or effort on defense.

[TheBrooklynKidd]

People on this board just think that with even the tiniest bit of improvement, D'Angelo is a better player than Lin next season

You mean only some people I hope?

and a lot of people would rather see the backcourt of the future in Russell/Levert start together

It looks to me like Russell would most likely play SG and LeVert would most likely play SF

Russell: He's 6'5, he models his game on Manu and he's not particularly quick. The league is going smaller not bigger. He started at PG in LA but didn't do too well. They put Clarkson next to him and he got better. One knock on him is that he's not a good enough leader to play PG. OTOH, his shooter/scoring ability would be a plus at SG.

LVJ: He's 6'7 and plays like LBJ that's a bit smaller and less athletic. He can guard LBJ OK, he'll be able to guard any SF. He just needs to bulk up. Last season, they had ample opportunity to play him at SG towards the end of the season but he barely did. It's the same logic with RHJ, who exclusive plays at PF until he has it down.

Well most people lol. It's pretty neck and neck at the moment and I'm sure there's lots of people that would even say that Russell is better right now.

Also no I see LeVert being a SG or a PG since both him and D'Angelo are capable of being primary ball handlers and are great passers. Also he played a decent amount of point at Michigan. It doesn't really matter which one is penciled in at point.

And no he didn't have any opportunity to play SG last year. The Nets had a very unbalanced roster last season because of Their abundance of guards because of Lins inability to stay healthy. LeVert was literally the only reasonable option at SF for the Nets once they moved RHJ to power forward. The only other player who was even physically capable of playing SF was KJ who we basically aqcuired for free and is no longer even on the team. He wasn't even taller than LeVert, he was our tallest perimeter player last season which is the only reason he started at SF.

[Crunky]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

[Prokorov]

Well most people lol. It's pretty neck and neck at the moment and I'm sure there's lots of people that would even say that Russell is better right now.

im not sure if russell would be "better" then lin with a small inprovement... depends how you would quantify that. but if Russell can go from 35% from three to 40% from three in a faster pace offense then he probably puts up 20/5 on 56-57 TS%. although on the flip side i can also see them limiting him to 26-27 minutes with a 5 gaurd rotation.

Also no I see LeVert being a SG or a PG since both him and D'Angelo are capable of being primary ball handlers and are great passers. Also he played a decent amount of point at Michigan. It doesn't really matter which one is penciled in at point.

im not sure what Russell is longterm. But i do agree that Levert is more a SG. he is a ball handler and at 6'5" is undersized for SF.

[Prokorov]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

he is going to be an RFA if we dont extend him. market value for a 24-27 year old starting forward of his calibur is between 15-17 M per year. he could sign that extension. if not, he becomes an RFA.... teams have to overpay to get RFAs

just like porter and KCP are worth nowhere near the max, they still get it as an RFA. same with RHJ... in 2 years in RFA he will get 17-20 per year

[Crunky]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

he is going to be an RFA if we dont extend him. market value for a 24-27 year old starting forward of his calibur is between 15-17 M per year. he could sign that extension. if not, he becomes an RFA.... teams have to overpay to get RFAs

just like porter and KCP are worth nowhere near the max, they still get it as an RFA. same with RHJ... in 2 years in RFA he will get 17-20 per year

I don't see any team offering him that honestly because he can't shoot and the league is about spacing. Cap Space has dried up, not many teams will have money.

[Paradise]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

Because he's entering his 3rd season after finishing the season averaging 10/7/2. 45% FG/ 13.7 PER at Power Forward.

He's likely to increase his production to a near 13/9/3 per game with Russell, LeVert and Lin finding open looks for him via PnR. No Lopez means Afro and Moz will control PnR a lot better thus making RHJ's defense more impactful.

In comparison, MKG averaged 6/5/48% FG. 14.3 PER entering his 3rd season. He's currently making $13 million based off the last cap.




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[Vae Victus]

DLo isnt gonna go from 35% to 40% in one season. I dont know why youre waving around that utterly unreasonable standard and being all disappointed in him for not reaching it. He's a good shooter, not trancendent.

DLo will most likely get up to 37 or with alot of luck 38% from 3. He's gonna get ALOT of volume out there and being able to stroke it for 37/38% is already a HUGE win. He'll likely follow Lin's progression where half of his shots will be a 3ball due to the way the offense is setup. Also by being the SG he'll be the recipient of alot of Lin penetration dish out/swing to open shooter shots which will greatly improve his shooting %.

Then after a strong developmental year and being in a strong system i can TOTALLY see DLo taking another step forward in year 4 and maybe just barely crack 40% from out there if Lin is around to help suck in defenses.

if Lin is gone and DLo is primary PG i can see him stick around 38% on high volume which is still absolutely wonderful from a guard, but without a true penetrator to really screw up the defense it'll be really hard to hits 40% without a good number of wide open looks a lead guard is unlikely to get without others to really draw the defenses attention.

[Sleepyazn]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

he is going to be an RFA if we dont extend him. market value for a 24-27 year old starting forward of his calibur is between 15-17 M per year. he could sign that extension. if not, he becomes an RFA.... teams have to overpay to get RFAs

just like porter and KCP are worth nowhere near the max, they still get it as an RFA. same with RHJ... in 2 years in RFA he will get 17-20 per year

I feel like you overestimating the amount of cap space teams will have when RHJ becomes a rfa. Like the large amount of salaries given out right now mostly because of the cap going up so quickly. It's only projected to increase by 3 million next year and most teams right now near capped out outside of us and 3 other teams.

[Prokorov]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

he is going to be an RFA if we dont extend him. market value for a 24-27 year old starting forward of his calibur is between 15-17 M per year. he could sign that extension. if not, he becomes an RFA.... teams have to overpay to get RFAs

just like porter and KCP are worth nowhere near the max, they still get it as an RFA. same with RHJ... in 2 years in RFA he will get 17-20 per year

I don't see any team offering him that honestly because he can't shoot and the league is about spacing. Cap Space has dried up, not many teams will have money.

actually, with all the 3 and 4 year deals with opt outs signed last year... alot of teams will have money. 2019 ans 2020 are projected to have big cap available.

Andre roberson is an RFA. we can probably gauge what RHJ gets similar to that. and while RHJ isnt a shooter he also isnt a bad offensive player. he gets you 10-11 points on excellent efficiency and is an elite defender teams will pay for that

he is a lock for 4/60 and likel closer to 4/72

[Crunky]

I'm on board with trading Rhj for Otto Porter there's no way I'm paying a role player 20mil. Otto Porter at least is an all star in the weak East with no Paul George and Jimmy Butler to deal with. If we max Rhj we'll never make playoffs guaranteed.

[Sleepyazn]

he is going to be an RFA if we dont extend him. market value for a 24-27 year old starting forward of his calibur is between 15-17 M per year. he could sign that extension. if not, he becomes an RFA.... teams have to overpay to get RFAs

just like porter and KCP are worth nowhere near the max, they still get it as an RFA. same with RHJ... in 2 years in RFA he will get 17-20 per year

I don't see any team offering him that honestly because he can't shoot and the league is about spacing. Cap Space has dried up, not many teams will have money.

actually, with all the 3 and 4 year deals with opt outs signed last year... alot of teams will have money. 2019 ans 2020 are projected to have big cap available.

Andre roberson is an RFA. we can probably gauge what RHJ gets similar to that. and while RHJ isnt a shooter he also isnt a bad offensive player. he gets you 10-11 points on excellent efficiency and is an elite defender teams will pay for that

he is a lock for 4/60 and likel closer to 4/72

Zach Lowe was talking about on his podcast today that it's a market bubble that gonna pop and he expects most agents to opt in to those contracts.

[Prokorov]

DLo isnt gonna go from 35% to 40% in one season. I dont know why youre waving around that utterly unreasonable standard and being all disappointed in him for not reaching it. He's a good shooter, not trancendent.

he is an elite shooter though... he was drafted second on his potential as just that. he was elite in college from three. he didnt just shoot 35% from three last year.... he did it on high volume (6 attempts). He is going to get better looks from three here. the one thing our offense does is generate great looks. he is going to play on the ball less.

Last year he was assited on only 63% of his three point shots. thats extremely low for the type of volume he had. that should go up drastically with Lin being the primary PG. He shot 45.2% on assisted three pointers last season. if he shoots more of those this year and less pull ups on the ball that will increase his 3 point percentage quite a bit.

if he can increase his 3pt FGM per game from 2.1 to 2.4 on the same volume that gets him to 40%

DLo will most likely get up to 37 or with alot of luck 38% from 3. He's gonna get ALOT of volume out there and being able to stroke it for 37/38% is already a HUGE win. He'll likely follow Lin's progression where half of his shots will be a 3ball due to the way the offense is setup. Also by being the SG he'll be the recipient of alot of Lin penetration dish out/swing to open shooter shots which will greatly improve his shooting %.

i dont think he gets much more volume on 3 point attempts. i realize we play at a fast pace but he already had huge volume last year and a big portion of that was on the ball. i think the volume stays the same but only on better shot selection. also there is no "luck involved". threes are a skill. he is highly skilled shooter. if he puts in the work, takes the smart shots in the offense his percentage will rise.

nearly Half of russells FG attempts were already threes.


i would be REALLY discouraged if Russell isnt close to 40% from three next year. that would be a worrysome sign for a guy whose only elite shill is range shooting

[Crunky]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

he is going to be an RFA if we dont extend him. market value for a 24-27 year old starting forward of his calibur is between 15-17 M per year. he could sign that extension. if not, he becomes an RFA.... teams have to overpay to get RFAs

just like porter and KCP are worth nowhere near the max, they still get it as an RFA. same with RHJ... in 2 years in RFA he will get 17-20 per year

I feel like you overestimating the amount of cap space teams will have when RHJ becomes a rfa. Like the large amount of salaries given out right now mostly because of the cap going up so quickly. It's only projected to increase by 3 million next year and most teams right now near capped out outside of us and 3 other teams.

I agree with you teams with cap space will be limited to a few teams looking to hit homeruns. Teams aren't looking to sign Rhj of the world to a max contract I promise you. If we cap out this roster we deserve to be in last place.

[Prokorov]

i dont think he is going to be made available but if the celtics need cap id make a big push for avery bradley. RHJ + ???

[Crunky]

Next year is make it or break it for Sean Marks if he extends Rhj to 20million without letting the market dictate he deserves to be fired.

[hood30]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

Kind of funny, but I was asking myself the same question..I know they are simply imagining the best case scenario with RHJ development in the future, but I'd be shocked if RHJ turned himself into an NBA player worth maxing out once his rookie deal expires or once he enter RFA.....I simply can't picture him becoming a key player worth keeping in the future.

RHJ is more likely to be out of the NBA in 3 years than signing max extension when he's up for a new contract.

[Crunky]

Why does everyone here feel rhj will get 20million extension, whose paying him that much. We don't even have a playoff roster to pay a role player 20million lol.

Kind of funny, but I was asking myself the same question..I know they are simply taking the best case scenario with RHJ, but I'd be shocked if RHJ turned himself into an NBA player worth maxing out once his rookie deal expires or once he enter RFA.....I simply can't picture him becoming a key player worth keeping in the future.

Exactly I'm going crazy reading everyone's comments that we need to extend Rhj to the max. I'm like wait a minute dude should be coming off the bench on any playoff team if doesn't develop a jumpshot. Marks is to smart to do something that stupid.