A Brief History of Tanking

[Prokorov]

A Brief History of Tanking

Had a discussion going on the GB about tanking. thought my findings my be of interest given we have our pick control coming back and will need to build on young talent. Someone had said how the cavs/wolves/wizards are all top 3 teams in their conference (assumption on the wolves) because of tanking. Which turned out to be very false. So I figured I would outline some teams that built through the draft and whether they Tanked or Didnt Tank and if they Did Tank how they fared.

Cleveland Cavaliers:
2011 finished with the 8th worst record(32-50). moved up 7 spots to #1 (kyrie irving)
2012 irving missed 30+ games, they didn't intentionally tank. They finished 5th worst but moved up 1 spot (Dion waiters)
2013 irving again missed 30+ games, they didnt intentionally tank. They finished 3rd worst but moved up 2 spots to #1 (bennett)
2014 irving healthy, they finished with the 9th worst record(33-49), moved up 8 spots to #1 (wiggings)

DRAFTED CORE: Irving | Waiters | Bennett | Wiggins

Analysis: NOT a Tank. They got their 2 star draft picks in the 2 years they won 30+ games. They got 2 busts the years they were bad. They were able to get Kevin Love with Wiggins who was drafted in a non-tank season. Lebron came back to the Cavs to play with Kyrie/Love... neither of which were products of tanking.

Minnesota Timberwolves:
2014 Finished with the 13th worst record (40-42). Picked #13 (Zack Lavine)
2015 They Traded Love for Wiggins/Bennet. they finished 16-66. They Picked #1 (Towns)
2016 They finished 5th (30-52) and picked #5 (Dunn)
2017 They finished 7th (31-52) and picked #7 (Markannen)

DRAFTED CORE: LaVine | Towns | Dunn | Markannen

Analysis: NOT a Tank. The players they used to acquire Jimmy Butler where all taken in season where they won 40, 30, and 31 games respectively. They year they finished with 16 wins was not tanking. The Kevin Love era had run its course. they traded him for a young star in Wiggins and pushed the reset button. Even if you want to consider Towns "Tanking" there was luck involved with getting him. There was only 1 superstar in the top 3 (Russell, Okafor) and the ping pong balls kept them at #1. As a comparison look at the year the magic finished with the worst record. They dropped from #1 to #2 in a draft where the top 3 players were: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter.

Of the Wolves new "Big 3": Butler | Wiggins | Towns only one of them was aquired with a top 3 draft pick. Butler was acquired with Lavine(13)/Dunn(5)/Markannen(7) all in 30+ win seasons and Wiggins was acquired with Kevin Love.

Washington Wizards:
2010 They Finished 7th worst. Moved up 6 ahead of a 70 loss nets team to #1 (John Wall).
2011 They Finished 6th, moved down 1 spot to #7 (Vessley)
2012 Wall missed 35 games. They finished second worst. They moved down 1 spot to #2 (Beal)
2013 they finished 8th worst (30-52). They moved up 5 spots to #3 (Porter)
2014 They made playoffs (44-38). Traded from #19 to #15 (Oubre)

DRAFTED CORE: Wall | Beal | Porter | Oubre

Analysis: NOT a Tank. Their franchise player (Wall) was acquired in a year they finished with the 7th worst record. Luck moved them up to #1 ahead of the Nets (12-70). They got Beal in a year they finished with the second worst record, however, they had a poor record because Wall missed the first 33 games with injury (Wizards went 4-29 during that span). They Selected Porter in a year they finished 8th worst winning 30 games, and Oubre in a year they made the playoffs (Traded #19 and a pair of second rounders to move #15).

The Wizards built their team taking advantage of some great luck, not by tanking. The only asset they got from finishing with a bad record was beal, and they finished with a poor record unintentionally due to a wall injury.

New Orleans Pelicans:
2012 Traded Chris Paul. Finished with the 4th worst Record. Moved up 3 to #1 (Anthony Davis)
2013 Finished 5th worst. moved down to #6 (Noel). Traded the Pick for Jrue Holiday.
2014 Finished 10th worst (34-48). No draft pick (was part of Noel for Holiday trade)
2015 Made playoffs. Finished 46-36. No pick (Traded for Asik and Omir Cassippi)
2016 Davis missed 21 games. Finished 6th worst (30-52). Picked #6 (Hield) later traded for Cousins.
2017 No Pick, was part of the Demarcus Cousins trade.

DRAFTED CORE: Davis

Analysis: NOT a Tank.. The Hornets were forced to move on from Chris Paul when he forced his way to L.A. (first in an overturned trade to the lakers, then eventually to the clippers). They were bad the next season, but didnt tank for the #1 pick. They finished with the 4th worst record. They got lucky with the ping pong balls and got the #1 pick in front of a team who WAS tanking, the bobcats (7-59 record). Once they acquired Davis they immediately started making "win now" moves trading their next FOUR draft picks for established talent ('13 and '14 picks for Holiday; '15 Pick for Asik, '16 pick (Hield) and '17 Pick for Cousins).

Their current "Big 3" of Holiday | Davis | Cousins were not a result of tanking. Holiday/Cousins were acquired by trading picks outside of the top 3 and Davis was acquired after getting lucky in the lottery moving up ahead of tanking teams.

Milwaukee Bucks
2012 Finsihed 12th worst (31-51). Traded #12 for Dalembert and #14 (Henson)
2013 Made playoffs as 8th seed (38-44) Picked #15 (Giannis)
2014 Finished last (15-67). Dropped 1 spot to #2 (Parker)
2015 Made playoffs (41-41). Picked #17 (Rashad Vaughn)
2016 Finished 10th worst (33-49). picked 10th (Thon Maker). Also picked #36 (Brogdon)

DRAFTED CORE: Giannis | Parker | Brogdon | Maker

Analysis: Partial Tank.. While on the surface it may appear they tanked for Wiggins(ended up picking parker) that really isnt the case. their core of Jennings/Ellis/Ilyasova wasnt working out. They let Ellis go in free agency and traded Jennings and Ilyasova for Bradon Knight. Also that year Sanders played just 20 games after being suspended.

Even if you want to say the Bucks tanked in 2014... and that they tanked that year knowing they had to rebuild, the Majority of their core was acquired without tanking. Giannis was a non-lotto pick. Maker was drafted a year they went 33-49. Middleton was acquired in the Brandon Jennings trade. Brogdon was a second round pick. Snell was acquired via trade for Carter-Williams. The Bucks were built on acquiring superstar talent outside the lottery(Giannis), trading for a second rounder who blossomed(Middleton) and drafting the rookie of the year in the second round(Brogdon). Parker is a part of that core, but hasnt contributed much yet.

More to come... but I think it is interesting how most of the good young teams actually didnt tank to get where they are now. They just either: A) Got Lucky, B) Drafted extremely well later in the lottery/late in the draft, C) made great trades, D) all of the above.

The last 10 years Following top draft 3 picks were drafted by teams who did NOT Finish with a bottom 3 record:
Andrew Wiggins
Otto Porter
Anthony Davis
Kyrie Irving
John Wall
James Harden
Derrick Rose
Kevin Durant


More to come....

[Prokorov]

RESERVED

I'll but adding more teams to this later. Want to make sure I get all the details correct.

[Roy Tarpley]

Some good work here Prok but are there really that many instances of an obvious deliberate tank? I can't think of many examples:

- Hinkie's overt tank over multiple years
- Lakers' covert tank to keep their top 3-protected picks in 2015-16 and 2016-17

You conclude that "most of the good young teams actually didnt tank to get where they are now. They just either: A) Got Lucky, B) Drafted extremely well later in the lottery/late in the draft, C) made great trades, D) all of the above."

But you forgot to add the most important factor: HIGH DRAFT PICK

The only ways to get a high draft pick are : (1) swindling other teams (see Celtics-Nets trade); (2) terrible team leading to poor record; (3) tanking (overtly or covertly); (4) luck through lottery; (5) former high draft pick through trade/FA (e.g., Russell or Bennett).

(1) After the Celtics-Nets trade, it's really hard to swindle teams, no one wants to be Billy King
(2) It's hard to be a terrible team accidentally. Teams like the Bulls who traded Butler and didn't sign Rondo will be terrible through deliberate choice. When David Robinson got injured, that was an accidental tank. Even the Lin injury was an accidental tank, though on a minor scale, and without the benefit of having their own pick.
(3) Teams can tank although there are consequences for team culture and fan support
(4) You can't control luck
(5) It's hard to get former high draft picks through FA/trade because why would the original team give them up unless they had no value? Not impossible, but situation has to be right (kudos to Marks for finding this type of situation).

[Paradise]

Losing and tanking are two different things.

I don't see us deliberately tanking but we will be bad and flexible for 2019 when we could draft Bagley or Zion. You're not talking about decent prospects. Bagley is looking like a lefty Anthony Davis.

I don't think I'll hold any ill will to Sean or the FO if they choose to tank. Russell / LeVert / Bagley / Allen is a terrific core barring all of them reach 60% of their potential and trajectory.

That's a core capable of competing with the Sixers, Celtics and Bucks core in deep playoff runs for future years to come. Assuming, LeBron leaves the East next summer.


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[Prokorov]

Some good work here Prok but are there really that many instances of an obvious deliberate tank? I can't think of many examples:

- Hinkie's overt tank over multiple years
- Lakers' covert tank to keep their top 3-protected picks in 2015-16 and 2016-17

You conclude that "most of the good young teams actually didnt tank to get where they are now. They just either: A) Got Lucky, B) Drafted extremely well later in the lottery/late in the draft, C) made great trades, D) all of the above."

But you forgot to add the most important factor: HIGH DRAFT PICK

The only ways to get a high draft pick are : (1) swindling other teams (see Celtics-Nets trade); (2) terrible team leading to poor record; (3) tanking (overtly or covertly); (4) luck through lottery; (5) former high draft pick through trade/FA (e.g., Russell or Bennett).

(1) After the Celtics-Nets trade, it's really hard to swindle teams, no one wants to be Billy King
(2) It's hard to be a terrible team accidentally. Teams like the Bulls who traded Butler and didn't sign Rondo will be terrible through deliberate choice. When David Robinson got injured, that was an accidental tank. Even the Lin injury was an accidental tank, though on a minor scale, and without the benefit of having their own pick.
(3) Teams can tank although there are consequences for team culture and fan support
(4) You can't control luck
(5) It's hard to get former high draft picks through FA/trade because why would the original team give them up unless they had no value? Not impossible, but situation has to be right (kudos to Marks for finding this type of situation).

IT not "high draft pick" its more the #1 pick. after the #1 overall your odds of getting a great play decrease dramatically. and finishing with the worst record you have a 76.4 % chance of NOT getting the first pick.

You are MUCH better off playing hard and living with whatever position you end up with and rely on your scouting. like the bucks. maybe you luck into high picks without finsihing in the bottom like the wizards.

tanking is by FAR the worst option. teams that have been bad but tried to win as many games as they can have consistently done better then teams who dont. which ill prove once i add the rest of the teams in there (like the kings, magic and lakers)

[Prokorov]

Losing and tanking are two different things.

I don't see us deliberately tanking but we will be bad and flexible for 2019 when we could draft Bagley or Zion. You're not talking about decent prospects. Bagley is looking like a lefty Anthony Davis.

I don't think I'll hold any ill will to Sean or the FO if they choose to tank. Russell / LeVert / Bagley / Allen is a terrific core barring all of them reach 60% of their potential and trajectory.

That's a core capable of competing with the Sixers, Celtics and Bucks core in deep playoff runs for future years to come. Assuming, LeBron leaves the East next summer.


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Agreed... the cavs lost but didnt tank. they got starts despite winning 30 games those years. same with the wizards. same with the wolves assets.

I would 1000000% hold it against marks if he tanked to get bagley. now if we are bad but still play with high effort every night and end up with a top pick then thats one thing. but too much has been put into development in culture to start sitting/reducing roles for Levert/RHJ/Russell or to dump a leader like Lin in order to lose a few more games.

Stay with the "grit" and effort culture. keep developing. if we organically get a top pick great.

when you tank more often then not you just watch someone leap frog your 70 losses to take john wall or anthony davis

[Roy Tarpley]

Losing and tanking are two different things.

I don't see us deliberately tanking but we will be bad and flexible for 2019 when we could draft Bagley or Zion. You're not talking about decent prospects. Bagley is looking like a lefty Anthony Davis.

I don't think I'll hold any ill will to Sean or the FO if they choose to tank. Russell / LeVert / Bagley / Allen is a terrific core barring all of them reach 60% of their potential and trajectory.

That's a core capable of competing with the Sixers, Celtics and Bucks core in deep playoff runs for future years to come. Assuming, LeBron leaves the East next summer.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

Agreed... the cavs lost but didnt tank. they got starts despite winning 30 games those years. same with the wizards. same with the wolves assets.

I would 1000000% hold it against marks if he tanked to get bagley. now if we are bad but still play with high effort every night and end up with a top pick then thats one thing. but too much has been put into development in culture to start sitting/reducing roles for Levert/RHJ/Russell or to dump a leader like Lin in order to lose a few more games.

Stay with the "grit" and effort culture. keep developing. if we organically get a top pick great.

when you tank more often then not you just watch someone leap frog your 70 losses to take john wall or anthony davis

I can't disagree with anything here.

[ChokeFasncists]

Greatest tank job ever: DRob getting injured, shut down everyone else - Duncan!