tk76 wrote:Not to be gloomy on Christmas, but odds are bad for this team for the next 4 years regardless of what you do. If you have to choose between build around Brand/Iguodala and blowing it up I'd say Neither are enticing options- but the franchise is in a bad position right now.
I've never been one to say Finals or bust. I'd be very happy being a fan of a team like the Eagles or Jazz who consistent win but can't get a ring. But I feel most likely these next four years standing pat does not mean good. It means more of mediocre, with little chance at excellence. So I'm willing to throw away mediocre and risk being lousy for a least a shot at building towards a consistent winner.
As I see it, if you keep Brand and Iguodala then in the next four years I'd set odds at:
-one or more 55+ win season and a shot at contending: <1% (You'd have to strike gold in this year's draft and have everyone develop)
-multiple 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: <5%
-a 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: 15%
- more than one 40+ winning season and 1st round playoff losses: 60%
-Mostly losing seasons and 1 or less playoff appearances: 20% (injuries and or poor player development)
If you move Brand +/- Iguodala (ideally just Brand) then in the next 4 years I'd set odds at:
-one or more 55+ win season and a shot at contending: 3-5% (a combination of a stud from the draft and a superstar trade/signing in 2011). Then you'd be good for a while.
-multiple 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: <5% (probably won't be really good until 3 years from now)
-a 48+ win seasons and a 2nd round playoff exit: 5%%
- 40+ winning season and 1st round playoff losses: 35%
-Mostly losing seasons and 1 or less playoff appearances: 50% (injuries and or poor player development)
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So basically you can take a huge risk and most likely end up a a loser instead of average... or you can stand pat and have a much lower ceiling and be stuck in the same boat you are now. I do not think stading pat can lead you to a consistent winner given this roster and the salary cap.
Yes. I'd mostly agree with that. IMO, The keys to the team's progression to that contender level are with Jrue, Thad and Speights. Once they play at a consistently effective level in their niches, then Iguodala is freed from having to be the Leading Scorer. I believe that those 3 will be the bellwether for the team going forward.
I thought that about Thad before Brand was signed, which is why I had reservations. However, I capitulated, thinking that they could win now and win later.
Though, I don't think Brand will be here throughout his contract. 3 summers from now, he becomes a soon-to-be EC. So that is the longest term he'd be here, if not less. As I said before, an easy way to get that possible top pick stud is to keep Jordan this year, let him wreck havoc, and take the guaranteed lottery pick as a result. This team will be a bottom-feeder, guaranteed. That high lotto pick, hopefully the defensive anchor, will also be part of the core.
IMO, they have 4 starters and a key reserve in the young core. Your doomsday probability will come true if that core doesn't reach their potential or they fail to find that Defensive Anchor