RealGM Top 100 List 2017 -- #10

[penbeast0]

2017 List
1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olujawon
10.

Go!

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

.

[penbeast0]

VOTE: George Mikan. Yes, he played in a smaller, appreciably weaker NBA without the great black stars of his day. However, he dominated his league in a way that no one left, not even Shaq, matches. I am willing to switch my vote if (a) someone does a good analysis of his impact v. that of Shaq/Hakeem or (b) someone convinces me that Bird/Kobe/other deserves to be in ahead of Shaq/Hakeem. It's a bit of a cheat since I know he has no support, but I want him to be in the conversation. He was considered the best offensive player of the day AND the best defensive player and had a run of title teams similar to MJ without the hiatus. Of course, then you have to discount for his era . . . figure the talent of about 1 division in Jordan's day, and even less today where the league has greatly expanded it's talent base. However, even in Mikan's day, if you were close to 7 foot tall, you at least considered a basketball career so the talent differential is less than at other positions.

Could you repost the stats comparing Mikan to Jordan?

1951 is the first year we have rebounding stats available and, according to Win Shares, the last year of his true prime (WS averaged 21.8 for the 3 years up to that, 13.9 for the 3 years after that, then he retired except for a short, aborted attempt at a comeback in 56). So let's take that and compare it to Jordan's best year of 1991(according to WS, it's either 88 for highest total or 91 for WS/48 and just behind 88 for total because he "only" played 3081 minutes).

In terms of raw averages:
Mikan averaged 14.1reb, 4.1ast, 28.4pts on a ts% of .509 v. a league ts% of .428 on a pace of 94.8
Jordan averaged 6.0reb, 5.5ast, 31.5pts on a ts% of .605 v. a league ts% of .534 and a pace of 95.6

The pace is not that different, nor are the raw numbers taking into account the positions they played; the key is the ts%. But, using a simple ratio, Mikan's equivalent ts% relative to 1991 league numbers is .634! So, rather than being inefficient, you can see that for his time he was extremely efficient. Nothing fancy, but it's always a shock how much efficiency changes from the 50s to the 60s.

Alternate: By the numbers, Kobe or Karl Malone, by the eye test, Bird or West, by advanced statistics Garnett or David Robinson . . . open to be convinced

[ardee]

VOTE: George Mikan. Yes, he played in a smaller, appreciably weaker NBA without the great black stars of his day. However, he dominated his league in a way that no one left, not even Shaq, matches. I am willing to switch my vote if (a) someone does a good analysis of his impact v. that of Shaq/Hakeem or (b) someone convinces me that Bird/Kobe/other deserves to be in ahead of Shaq/Hakeem. It's a bit of a cheat since I know he has no support, but I want him to be in the conversation. I did a post once comparing him to prime Jordan by (simple version) adjusting his stats for pace and league norms and he scored nearly as much (within 2 points), dominated rebounding (of course), had similar assists, and with his high foul draw, good FT shooting, and the low average fg% of his era, was more efficient than Jordan relative to league as well. Add to that what contemporaries say about his defensive impact (also above Jordan) and you have a truly dominant player. Of course, then you have to discount for his era . . . figure the talent of about 1 division in Jordan's day, and even less today where the league has greatly expanded it's talent base but compared to other centers, even in Mikan's day, if you were close to 7 foot tall, you at least considered a basketball career so the talent differential is less than at other positions.

Alternate: By the numbers, Kobe or Karl Malone, by the eye test, Bird or West, by advanced statistics Garnett or David Robinson . . . open to be convinced

Could you repost the stats comparing Mikan to Jordan?

[Xherdan 23]

I have a feeling this thread will fast become Kobe vs KG with Bird actually taking the spot.
These 3 are the popular kids here but I think there are a bunch of others who should be in consideration for this spot and I'd at least want to see them mentioned and maybe even discussed a bit.

Mikan, Oscar, Dr J, Dirk, Karl Malone and the guy I feel gets overlooked a lot Jerry West.
I think you can make a case for any of them and I might try to do it depending on how this thread develops.

[THKNKG]

So my first vote will be what it has been:

1. Kevin Garnett
2. Dirk Nowitzki

I'm between Bird, Kobe, Dirk, Oscar, DRob, and West for the 2nd spot.

I'll try to do a "thinking out loud" post later today, and maybe try making a scouting report for each.

Note: one person that is not on my radar at all yet is Karl Malone. I don't see his peak as being all that high, and his prime isn't really comparable to these guys ITO impact. I am very open to being persuaded otherwise, but for now, I don't see it.

[wojoaderge]

I'm reprising my first place vote selection from the last thread. Of all those remaining, Larry Bird is the player with the most seasons as the best player in the league and the most championships won as his team's clear first option. The only other player left who could possibly match him is my second choice . . . George Mikan. A little more on him later . . .

1 - Larry Bird
2 - George Mikan

I'd like to add that these are the two last players remaining who were seriously considered as GOAT candidates while they were still playing. No revisionism necessary . . .

[Outside]

I'm going to be out for a few days, so I'll get this in now.

Vote: Larry Bird
Alternate: Jerry West

I detailed my reasoning for Larry Bird in the #9 thread. Is it okay to just refer to that?

For Jerry West, he was an elite complete player. A great scorer who increased his production in the playoffs, and a great defender. Had numerous heartbreaking losses to the Russell Celtics but finally got a title in 1972. He didn't win an MVP because Russell and Wilt kept hogging it, then Kareem at the end of West's career (with Oscar and Willis Reed thrown in there in off years), but West received votes in 10 seasons, came in 2nd four times, and was top 5 four other seasons. West was an early prototype of the scoring point guard or non-role specific guard, with seven years as a top 10 scorer and 10 seasons in top 10 assists. If he'd won more titles and MVPs, he be a lock for top 10 in this list, but losing out on those fronts to other top 10 greats makes him more of an afterthought than he should be.

Next on my list are KG, Kobe, and Oscar.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Kevin Garnett

Alt: Dirk Nowitzki

Not necessarily set on Dirk in the next spot, but it's tougher and tougher to keep Dirk down my ranking.

I wanted to share ElGee's last blog post here, and found bondom had already done so:

Just realized the Back Picks blog is posting articles. This was a few weeks ago:
http://www.backpicks.com/2017/06/27/star-player-effects-on-teammate-efficiency/

New article today too.

Here's the thing it makes me think:

That "supporting cast" part, that's the effectiveness of the supporting cast in the context they play in, and the superstar has massive influence over that. A player who has a great effect on culture, need only have a small fraction of the total cultural influence to have a major effect on par with what he can do on his own.

KG and Dirk aren't the only guys like this, but they are indeed like this.

[JordansBulls]

Code: Select all

 
              HCA(50+)/non-50                             
Bird:         10-6 / 14-1         
Tmac:         0-2 / 0-0           
Kobe:         18-2 / 7-0         
Wade:         3-2/ 13-0           



Code: Select all

 vs 50 win teams/non-50 win teams
Garnett:   3-2  (60%) /6-0 (100%)
Dirk:      6-2 (75%)  /2-1 (67%)
Malone:    4-4 (50%)  /8-2 (80%)
Barkley:   2-1 (67%)  /8-1 (89%)


Bird with 3 MVP's, 2 Finals MVP's, 3 Titles
Kobe with 1 MVP, 2 Finals MVP's, 5 Titles
Dirk with 1 MVP, 1 Finals MVP, 1 Title
Garnett with 1 MVP, 1 DPOY, 1 Title

1st Vote: Kobe Bryant
2nd Vote: Larry Bird

[Senior]

this thread might be the 1000 page KG vs Kobe we've all been waiting for

also I bet someone like Bird sneaks in at 10 after all the KG and Kobe supporters kill each other

[mischievous]

I'm not considering either at this point, but I don't get why Dirk>Karl Malone is a given in so many people's eyes. Dirk's a better offensive player at least in the postseason, but Malone was a super iron man and giving you legit 2 way production for basically 18 ish years. Dirk has 06 and 11 as his great playoff runs, but Malone also has his share of postseason success.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not considering either at this point, but I don't get why Dirk>Karl Malone is a given in so many people's eyes. Dirk's a better offensive player at least in the postseason, but Malone was a super iron man and giving you legit 2 way production for basically 18 ish years. Dirk has 06 and 11 as his great playoff runs, but Malone also has his share of postseason success.

Seems like you see Malone as a 2-way player and Dirk as a 1-way player. I see their defense being on around the same tier with Dirk having an offensive game that scales better against tough defense, and Dirk being the better leader and cultural presence by a small margin.

I also couldn't give Malone a longevity edge here. dirks longevity is great and part of that is because he gradually transitioned his play to max out his value as his abilities faded, whereas I think Malone held on to volume scoring too long.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[Tesla]

1st Vote: Kobe Bryant
2nd Vote: Larry Bird

Kobe, I simply think up to this point he is the most accomplished both by his stature he occured by his contemporaries and his results (yes I know you can call it winning bias). He has a very consistant and long prime, where he finished top 5 in mvp voting 12 times. It is an arbitrary cut off, but just being relevant to that extent for that many years is damn impressive, only Kareem (and now LBJ) can say the same and that is impressive company. His All NBA 1st team selections are also pretty much second to none. I trust that he will try to get to the stature he got to under any circumstances, yes he was a complainer at times, but it did also put pressure to change his situation. Has he been fortunate with some teams (and coach) yes, but that is also in some degree in hindsight. Success to that degree only seems very likely because it happened, we are quick to say the outcomes were so probable when in fact there have been many more teams on paper that seemed they would succeed more and didnt. None of what Kobe accomplisehd or any other player/or team is a given, I must credit it because it is extremely important reason why the game is played. He is also one of the best showmen to have ever played, we don't have thousands of threads about him for no reason even if there are polar opposite opinions. From 06-10 he really reached a strong pinnacle in the world as the best basketball player (or 2nd perhaps) but that length of time to have that opinion of you so given was only achieved by perhaps a handful of players, right or wrong. Lastly, he did adapt, he did play many roles and was successful in all but his final role as a shell of himself. You don't go from taking 30 shots to 20 shots next year without adapting (as well as olympics, where his Defense was elite). Anyhow, I take him over the remaing because I feel he has an equal or better 3 year run to anyone remaining from 08-10, and what he did the 6 years before then and 3 years after then is also just as impressive.

[Senior]

Can't see Karl Malone above Dirk. Dirk has basically two real blemishes on his postseason prime - 06 Finals and 07 (could count 05 vs Houston but whatever), his 11 run obliterates anything Malone did, and most of his other series are fantastic anyway. Malone's postseason performances can't touch Dirk's, to be honest. His skillset wasn't really built for the postseason and it wasn't surprising to see his volume/efficiency drop, especially late in games...and that's before you get to the real black marks. Even if Malone's longevity is better I'm not counting on him to show up in the playoffs. I actually think that Malone can do a lot of good on O and his only real issue is isolation scoring - problem is, Dirk can match his overall offensive impact AND he's a championship-level isolation scorer. There's no situation I would take prime Malone over prime Dirk as my offensive anchor for a playoff run.

I also don't see Malone's defense as significantly better than Dirk's. He was a more physical post defender, but he wasn't your prototypical anchor like D-Rob or Mutombo. His swipe could bug people but he's probably above average at best.

[BasketballFan7]

Vote: Julius Erving
Alternative: Kobe Bryant

These guys score closely in career value to me. Erving comes out a bit ahead across the board. He had a higher peak and by my criteria superior longevity. Kobe played more minutes but a substantial chunk of those minutes came post-2012 and pre-2000, and those seasons don't add a ton of value for me (2013 would have added significant value, enough to push him over Erving, had he not been injured late in the season, causing him to miss the playoffs). So, for me, longevity is a push at best and more likely going to Erving. Both players showed the ability to play with other star talent (that said, roster construction as a whole was far superior for Kobe) and both players tend to be overrated defensively.

Erving tends to be underrated altogether IMO. His reputation is such that one may come to believe that he couldn't handle the ball, shoot, or really do anything outside of be athletic and finish at the rim. This likely has to do with his PPG dropping upon entering the NBA. To me, that's on roster construction. You aren't going to convince me that 77-79 Erving was somehow significantly inferior to the 1980 and 1981 MVP winning version.

Lastly, I prefer Erving's less abrasive personality. I have Magic and Bird/Dirk after this pair.

[kayess]

Doc's alt vote for Dirk is 2017's version of his vote for KG at 4 in 2014.

Now that Hakeem is in, it's between KG and DRob for me. Then the Oscar/West/Dr J/Kobe/Dirk group follows

[Colbinii]

What is Kobe's argument over The Big Ticket?

Sent from my SM-G920P using RealGM mobile app

[mikejames23]

Good post on Dirk

Or anyone over Dirk. I think it's fair to say Dirk should enter the discussion.

By pure boxscore metrics, Dirk wins out. The all time W/S total comes out to be this.

7. LeBron James
8. Dirk Nowitzki
9. Kevin Garnett
18. Kobe Bryant
27. Larry Bird

From a W/S standpoint Dirk overcame KG and blew away Larry Legend. His career has 8 R/S seasons with about .200 W/S per 48. In comparison Larry Bird only has 2. KG has 5 and Kobe has 6. Not to mention Dirk’s advantage grows in the playoffs. For W/S per 48 Dirk is in the Top 20 while KG doesn’t make the Top 50. Bird is in the 30’s.

So basically I think we’re overlooking how much of a longevity advantage our modern day greats have over Larry Bird. Are we calling this the advanced medical tech advantage?

“But Fundamentals21 we don’t like boxscore stats. We pride our RAPM”

Ahh, okay okay but look!

06-11

LeBron +8.3
Dirk +8.2

And these 2 are literally .1 apart. Dirk’s offense here measures at a +5.9 which makes him even more valuable than LeBron during this time period! This run includes LeBron’s historic 09 and 10 seasons. And it feels frankly that Dirk’s ‘11 may have been very close to these runs.

08-11

LeBron +10.2
Nash +7.8
Dirk +7.8

Well damned. Looks like LeBron pulled away. That being said! This is the Kobe vs LeBron era and Dirk didn’t get any attention. 08-10 ballots in RPOY don’t have Dirk in the Top 3. It was LeBron, Kobe, Wade.

Now why is that?

I think Dirk’s rep took a considerable nosedive in the 2007 series. This was well deserved because the Mavs underwent a fiasco. HOWEVER. I believe this is the only black mark in his career. Kobe had 2004. I think we can forgive this one instance.

Not to mention, everyone here acknowledges how Dirk perfected his game so that it wouldn’t succumb to wings. In 2011 he cemented his new style.

2011 RAPM

Dirk +8.6
Manu +6.6

This is the kind of blowout that was repeated by only a year like KG in 04. Duncan’s 03 doesn’t reach this kind of dominance by +/-. As we all know Dirk also carried suspects to a championship this year, and as I keep saying carrying this load on offense as Dirk has been and taking it all the way is as impressive as Tim Duncan’s 2003 season. Honestly, if I am the franchise GM and I have put Jason Terry as my 2nd option this season, I am feeling pretty antsy. Dirk led his team and delivered on what is objectively a very suspect cast. He genuinely killed Kobe’s Lakers in an embarrassing fashion and overcame a strong series from Dwyane Wade in the finals. Even if this was a down year finals from LeBron, that Heat team was more than capable enough to overcome the Mavs. Dirk was masterful during this entire run.

---

I don’t think it’s tough to sell anyone on Dirk 06 onwards.

How good was Dirk from 03-05?

03

Dirk’s ranked #10 - +3.3. Behind Duncan and KG but well ahead of Kobe. Remember Kobe had a solid run that year and there were some in the POY thread that voted him over Shaq. This was Dirk’s first real shot at a title, but unfortunately he went down with injury vs the Spurs and we never got to see how good that Mavs team really was.

However it's to be noted he can lead a title contender. He's that good.


04

Dirk is ranked #6 - +4.4 behind Duncan and KG. Ahead of Kobe. This was another strong year. The problem with this team was there was no one to support Dirk on defense. Nash, Jamison, Finley, etc. comprised the rest of the team under Nellie and it turned out to be a 50 Win meh sort of team. However, this has more to do with team construct than anything.

05

Dirk is ranked #7 behind Duncan but ahead of KG. +4.7

Looking forward from 05 on, KG’s advantage over Dirk’s becomes primarily defensive - and this sort of advantage is simply inferior to a monster offensive player of Dirk’s caliber. You simply cannot find players around the league to produce you a monster offense capable of handling playoff defenses. You absolutely need a superstar.

Avery Johnson is here in 05! Under whom the Mavs finish really really strong. The Suns were a little better than the Mavs this year, but as we all know Dirk continues developing his game and the Mavs overcome the Suns in the following year.

Pre-03

Just for the heck of it.

33 points, 15 rebounds, 3 steals @ 68 TS% and O-Rating of 133. Phenomenal. Dropped this in 2002 first round vs the T-Wolves on our own Kevinnn Garnett!

Dirk was already THERE but not yet ready to be called a Top 5 ish player.

---

Basically Dirk gives you everything you want in a franchise player with 1 black mark in 07. He’ll have a long, strong career - always near the Top 5 and then some years contesting you for the best in the league. He pulls off a really really strong phase from 06-11 where you can argue he is the highest impact player during his time along with LeBron, Wade, Kobe. His peak excels. The '11 run's feat quite possibly excels KG and Duncan in their respective peaks.

Add to this longevity.

Beyond 2011, the Mavs have made the playoffs in 2012, 2014-2016.


Oh, and by the way, let’s not forget his 2014 season.

Dirk led the Mavs team to a 7 game series vs the Spurs team that we all know was dominant come playoff time. His impact at that age still frees up enough room for Monta Ellis to have an excellent series and lead the Mavs in scoring. No one else in that entire run put up a fight as strong vs the Mavs.

This was a renaissance year for Dirk where he fully displayed the ability to go toe to toe with a title winner.

---

Sooo, maybe we should talk about Dirk a tad bit more eh?

[oldschooled]

See post for #9 discussion. Im going to add more later if i have time.

Vote : Kobe
Alt : Larry Legend

[rebirthoftheM]

What is Kobe's argument over The Big Ticket?

Sent from my SM-G920P using RealGM mobile app

I'll speak for myself but it revolves around the following:

1: Prime Kobe (01-10) was in another tier on offense.

This I believe will not cause much controversy as Kobe had one of the greatest offensive primes of all time. KG is still very good in this regard but still reasonably inferior.

2:KG allegedly gets his separation on the defensive end.

I have not yet read a convincing an argument on why we should treat defensive indicators in the same way we do offensive indicators. Quite frankly, I think a much stronger arguments exists that an elite defensive player has far less control on his teams ability to defend than an elite offensive player has on his teams offense. Put simply, the latter by his mere presence on the court, means teams will pay attention to him, and respond to his every movements on the court in a way that cannot be replicated by an elite defensive player. Also, the latter can "clean up" his teams offensive failures in a away that the former cannot do. There's also something to be said about an elite offensive player being 'proactive' while an elite defender being 'reaction' thus creating a strong distinction in the ceilings of both.

Now I understand that in some senses, the fact that DRAPM indicators (and on/off) for elite defensive players tend to be lower than offensive indicators for elite offensive players, means that the gap between offensive and defensive impact is already realized. But IMO, I still do not think the level of attribution is still equal because none of these indicators actually tell you what is going on the court. They just inform you about shifts that are on going when X player is on/off, but nothing of actual substance. Attributing defensive shifts to one player is far more problematic than shifts on offense IMO, especially when you're dealing with elites.

KG's defensive indicators in 05/06 IMO strengthens my conclusions because so far I've read it being blamed on his teammates/coaching situation.

So in summary, I am highly doubtful that any separation KG has on D makes up for the offensive gap.

3: Prime Kobe was the better and more resilient playoff performer.

Kobe during his prime faced much tougher defenses than KG did, yet it was KG and not, who says drops in pretty much every meaningful statistical category while upping his minutes. I find Kobe's unyielding offensive pressure + his GOAT-like offensive skill-set made him resilient in ways KG could not. Again, I recognize a point has been made that with KG, his impact goes way beyond the stats. But really, against Kobe, the only thing you can point to is KG's defensive impact in the PS, which again, for the reasons above, I will not treat with the same seriousness as offense.

4: Kobe led more dominant teams in the PS:

The 08 Celtics had one of the weakest runs for a championship in modern history (maybe ever??) against comparatively weak-ish competition. They got hot towards their run, but this does not erase what occurred in the EC playoffs. And recall, that they beat a Lakers squad who had quite literally shifted their whole mode of operation from Feb onwards after acquiring Gasol. Lakers had no training camp and had to adjust on the fly. The next season (09), the Lakers looked like another machine, and beat the Celtics twice. In short, not really impressed at all by the 08 Celtics run, and KG was the leader of that ball club. Since we give Duncan and Russell props for their dominant teams, well KG's dominant team had a very underwhelming PS in 08.

Kobe and I'm sure we know, anchored/co-anchored a dominant team, including the most dominant PS team of all time. This matters to me.

All in all, I must concede i find it a little ridiculous that Duncan and Russell are on the board already at such high levels, while KG might fall out of the top 10. Real inconsistencies going on here.