Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIII

[BigA]

If Porter is like "yeah screw it" and goes to BKN, surely Grunners gets the boot right? I mean he's well beyond due the boot at this point, but after such a disaster the owner would have to or we'd burn down the Verizon center am i right?

He can't if the Wizards match, right?

[BigA]

Just think of where we were on July 1, 2016.

We had the exact same starting five then as we have now + Oubre -- but we also had max cap room and our 2017 pick. The moonshot plan was to upgrade the starting five; the backup plan was to field a professional bench (combo guard who can score/distribute, backup PF/C who can defend mobile 4/5s, specialists).

If EG had just had an average offseason -- not inspired, but not horrendous -- we'd have likely made it to the EC Finals (granted, we might've been a higher seed and faced the Cavs earlier in the bracket. But still).

Instead, EG managed to to bungle that cap room so *thoroughly* that he had to light that innocent 2017 pick on fire just 8 months later. And, here we are, July 7, 2017, with the same starting five + Oubre, only with no max cap room, no pick, a negative asset in Mahinmi, and an *extremely* iffy bench. We still need a combo guard who can score and distribute, and we (likely) still need a big who can defend mobile 4s and 5s.

Man, it takes a special kind of skill to turn a promising situation into a sad one so quickly.

To me the problem was really more about spending significant money in that particular offseason to begin with - it was the exact worst moment in NBA history to have lots of cap space with the expectation that it would be spent unless you happened to land either Durant or Horford. Due to a highly unusual supply and demand situation related to that revenue boost, the longer term contracts for substantial money doled out then were generally bad or terrible overspends by most all participants. And now of course the cap is looking like it's going to be more or less stagnant through the next couple years, making almost all the longterm deals signed that summer even worse.

While there might be an alternative universe out there where the Wizards were saved from themselves with Horford coming to Washington, there generally just were not a lot of good outcomes for a team that had built up the expectations with their franchise player and the fans that they were going to spend big money. They almost all shot themselves in the foot with negative signings, some of which were outright catastrophic (Parsons, Noah, Dieng, Crabbe, Turner, Mozgov, etc.)

Even Ad-Hoc usage of the MLE or just retaining guys like Ariza or Booker in the 2014 or 2015 timeframe would have ultimately ended up being a much higher percentage play than 2016. You could just about draw the names of modest and available free agents from a hat in those years and be guaranteed to do better (never even minding great deals like Millsap signing for 2 years @ $19 million, for example). And of course, trades in that earlier timeframe for rotation players that came along that would cut into the 2016 max slot plan were back-burnered as well.

The whole ordeal going back a few years really deserves a Seconds From Disaster episode.

These two posts are a great summary of where the Wizards are an how they got here.

[FAH1223]

So...a 1st round pick to dump Nicholson. Niiiice.

That's our Ernie. Mr. Dragsail.

2011 R1 pick (#6) -- player out of the league in 2 years
2011 R1 pick (#18) -- player out of the league in 2 years
2011 high R2 pick -- player waived
2012 R1 pick -- Brad Beal
2012 high R2 pick -- pick Tomas Satoransky who stays 4 years in Europe then is below average (meanwhile, Draymond Green, Jae Crowder, Khris Middleton, Will Barton all went elsewhere)
2012 R2 pick (#49) -- thrown in as part of Okariza trade (meanwhile Kyle O'Quinn becomes very solid rotation NBA Center)
2013 R1 pick -- Otto Porter
2013 high R2 pick -- player out of league in 2 years
2014 R1 pick -- traded for 1-year player rental
2014 R2 pick -- sold for cash
2015 R 1 pick -- Kelly Oubre
2015 R2 pick -- given away in trade for player with team for 1 year (Miller: this is from memory)
2016 R1 pick -- traded for below average PF
2016 R2 pick -- traded to move up in 2015 R1 to get Oubre
2017 R1 pick -- traded for zip
2017 R2 pick -- traded for Tim Frazier

Quite a haul, huh?

edit: You want to really be depressed? Take a look at 2011 alone vs. the Spurs:

Wizards @ #6: Jan Vesely
Spurs @ #15: Kawhi Leonard

Wizards @ #18: Chris Singleton
Spurs @ #29: Cory Joseph

Wizards @ #34: Shelvin Mack
Spurs @ #49: Davis Bertans

Depressing. Fook Ernie Grunfeld.

[payitforward]

So, forgive my ignorance here, but even if we match Otto, we still could take on some salary (like a Crowder dump) if Uncle T was willing to pay the tax, right?

No because we didn't pick up a TPE in a Bojan sign and trade. Can't make uneven trades like a pick for Crowder. Plus even if we did, those cheap idiots wouldn't pay money to be compete

Nat... you are starting to make me chuckle.... Don't you think we'll be in the top, say, 25% of all salaries this year? Doesn't it seem pretty likely we'll be in lux tax territory this year?

The answer to our problems isn't to keep adding salary. The answer is to fire the GM & hire a good one.

[payitforward]

We were so close to horford though. That would've been huge.

Wall Sato
Beal Mac
Oubre OG Anunoby (2017 1st)
Porter Keef
Horford Gortat

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhh this team forsure makes the NBA finals

You're kidding, right?

Replacing the Mahinmi/Jennings/Bojan/Smith with Al Horford and the top wing defender in the draft we at least beat Boston (they wouldn't have horford) and probably beat Cleveland also. Horford averaged 14-7-5 that would've been huge for us.

Well, there's no such thing as "for sure." But I'd say we would have a pretty good chance at least to be in the ECF. Esp. if we were starting Wall, Beal, Porter, Horford (i.e. at the 4) & Gortat. Not much doubt about how good that starting 5 would be!

More importantly, it's a much better team than the one we have. & it's also only 10 guys, so I don't think Nat is suggesting there would be no more depth.

Smith could still be there at backup C, for example -- or Dedmon or Withey or Reed -- a number of choices for 1-2 additional bigs. Obviously, we'd also need more depth at wing & PG.

Thing is, I'm not so sure that we were really #2 on Horford's list; there's no way to know. But, in principle that team is better just for not having made the other mistakes Ernie made last Summer. & there's room to add someone else outstanding even if Horford didn't come to us.

[DCZards]

You're kidding, right?

Replacing the Mahinmi/Jennings/Bojan/Smith with Al Horford and the top wing defender in the draft we at least beat Boston (they wouldn't have horford) and probably beat Cleveland also. Horford averaged 14-7-5 that would've been huge for us.

Well, there's no such thing as "for sure." But I'd say we would have a pretty good chance at least to be in the ECF. Esp. if we were starting Wall, Beal, Porter, Horford (i.e. at the 4) & Gortat. Not much doubt about how good that starting 5 would be!

More importantly, it's a much better team than the one we have. & it's also only 10 guys, so I don't think Nat is suggesting there would be no more depth.

The lineup that NatP4 claims would make the NBA finals has the unproven Sato and Mac, and rookie Anunoby as backups at PG, SG & SF. If there's more depth than that, as you assume there is, Nat certainly has not made it known who those players are or how the Zards would obtain them. In fact, judging by his previous posts, Nat seems to think that Sato and Mac are good enough to help the Zards reach the NBA finals.

He may be right. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Not to mention that the Zards would get absolutely crushed on the boards with Nat's proposed starting lineup.

[payitforward]

Replacing the Mahinmi/Jennings/Bojan/Smith with Al Horford and the top wing defender in the draft we at least beat Boston (they wouldn't have horford) and probably beat Cleveland also. Horford averaged 14-7-5 that would've been huge for us.

Well, there's no such thing as "for sure." But I'd say we would have a pretty good chance at least to be in the ECF. Esp. if we were starting Wall, Beal, Porter, Horford (i.e. at the 4) & Gortat. Not much doubt about how good that starting 5 would be!

More importantly, it's a much better team than the one we have. & it's also only 10 guys, so I don't think Nat is suggesting there would be no more depth.

The lineup that NatP4 claims would make the ECF finals has Sato, Mac, and rookie OG Anunoby as backups at PG, SG & SF. If there's more depth than that, as you assume there is, Nat certainly has not made clear who exactly those players are or how the Zards would obtain them. In fact, judging by his previous posts, Nat seems to think that Sato and Mac are good enough to help the Zards reach the ECF finals.

He may be right. But I wouldn't bet on it.

No question about it, Nat is all in on Sato & Mac.

At the same time, Zards, surely the main thing he means to be saying in this post is that if you remove Horford from the Celtics on the one hand, & you add Horford to the Wizards on the other hand, why then (he thinks) we become a good bet to beat them -- & maybe to win the ECF as well, he is so bold as to say. We'll never know, will we? But, it's not an outlandish claim.

In this particular post, in other words, although you are right that he lists them as the only backups (& only 1 backup per position as far as that goes), I don't think he meant any big claim about Sato 'n Mac.

In a way, there's a hidden truth in what Nat writes here: we have gotten ourselves into a) so much salary trouble, and b) such a paucity of really young talent (I mean on rookie contracts moreso than age in years) that if we are going to be really good (ECF & maybe forward) it's going to have to be because Sato & Mac (& guys like them: the undrafted amigos, McCullough & Frazier) can develop a lot -- & quickly. Oubre too, of course.

That far, I agree. We are going to need some positive surprises to become a power team.

[NatP4]

Replacing the Mahinmi/Jennings/Bojan/Smith with Al Horford and the top wing defender in the draft we at least beat Boston (they wouldn't have horford) and probably beat Cleveland also. Horford averaged 14-7-5 that would've been huge for us.

Well, there's no such thing as "for sure." But I'd say we would have a pretty good chance at least to be in the ECF. Esp. if we were starting Wall, Beal, Porter, Horford (i.e. at the 4) & Gortat. Not much doubt about how good that starting 5 would be!

More importantly, it's a much better team than the one we have. & it's also only 10 guys, so I don't think Nat is suggesting there would be no more depth.

The lineup that NatP4 claims would make the NBA finals has the unproven Sato and Mac, and rookie Anunoby as backups at PG, SG & SF. If there's more depth than that, as you assume there is, Nat certainly has not made it known who those players are or how the Zards would obtain them. In fact, judging by his previous posts, Nat seems to think that Sato and Mac are good enough to help the Zards reach the NBA finals.

He may be right. But I wouldn't bet on it.

Not to mention that the Zards would get absolutely crushed on the boards with Nat's proposed starting lineup.

What are you comparing this to? Lol. Mahinmi playing 20 games? Jason Smith? Andrew Nicholson? Are you suggesting that Al horford isn't an upgrade from that?

We used Trey Burke/Brandon Jennings/Marcus Thornton and Bojan as backup guards throughout the year, are you suggesting that Sato and Mac wouldn't be upgrades? (Because they already were better last year)

I assumed you could fill in the blanks, obviously Porter would play some 3 and Oubre would play some backup 3. Of course there aren't only 10 players on a team, Ernie would've filled in the rest of the roster.

Turning these players into

Burke/Jennings to Satoransky
Thornton to Sheldon Mac
Bojan to OG Anunoby (who was picked later than our potential pick, 23RD)
Nicholson/Smith/Mahinmi to Horford

On a team that lost in game 7 of the ECSF and already matched up well with Cleveland. Hmm

What PIF said above is spot on, the "next step" will have to come from a surprise in Sato/Mac or even McCullough or a big jump from Oubre. Not out of the question either

[payitforward]

& I am sure we all hope that surprise (or, better, those surprises) are in the offing! Zards has said repeatedly he is behind Sato & Mac. Just doesn't think they've proven it yet.

IOW, I don't think there's really that much to argue about. Personally, I've moved on to thinking about "The Undrafted Amigos" as you will soon see on topic list!

[mhd]

What about this deal:

Wiz trade: Mahinmi+2018 1st (lotto protected) for Koufus+2018 Sac 2nd
ATL trade: Plumlee for Mahinmi
Sac trade: Koufus+2018 2nd for Plumlee for Wiz 2018 1st (lotto protected)

We give up ANOTHER future 1st, but get out of Mahinmi's horrendous contract, while getting a solid vet backup center in Kofous signed for half the money. The Sac 2nd figures to be high. Atlanta spends about 2.5 million more for a productive center instead of the useless Plumlee. Sac does it to get another future 1st.

We get out lux tax land, while actually improving out bench scoring.

[payitforward]

Koufos is too old. Given Gortat being old, we need to be looking for more youth in the C position. Plus, no more trading R1 picks. Should be obvious by now what it's cost us to have had only 1 R1 pick in the last 4 drafts.

Not to mention zero R2 picks. In fact, since 2009 we have had exactly 1 -- only 1 -- R2 pick make the team & be retained via a multi-year contract: Tomas Satoransky. & (but only if we pick up Mac's option) 1 undrafted guy. & only 1 R1 pick taken later than #3 (Oubre @ #15).

This year the NBA champion Golden State Warriors will have 3 R2 picks on their roster. They will also have 2 undrafted players on their roster. In addition, they will have 2 guys they picked @ #30 -- last pick in R1. That's 7 out of their 15-man roster.

Any questions?

[payitforward]

Oh, one more thing: you know how many guys the Warriors are bringing to SL who went undrafted in 2017?

They are bringing 7 of them. No surprise if 1 of those guys makes the team. That's how you run a franchise. I.e. the opposite of how Ernie runs a franchise.

[gambitx777]

You know I've been thinking. I love Otto but man that contract is stupid. What would be the pros and cons of just saying **** it let him walk. With all the raises and new contracts subtract the 14 and 7 mill cap hold we just renounced. ? Try to work some deals to move mahinmi and go after a Jae Crowder/will barton trade ? I mean we don't get better but idk Otto's contract is not an abatross cuz he's a really good player but yikes . And he can bounce in three years and we have a phone situation on our hands. I'd I love Otto and I'm happy to keep him but man.

[DCZards]

What are you comparing this to? Lol. Mahinmi playing 20 games? Jason Smith? Andrew Nicholson? Are you suggesting that Al horford isn't an upgrade from that?

We used Trey Burke/Brandon Jennings/Marcus Thornton and Bojan as backup guards throughout the year, are you suggesting that Sato and Mac wouldn't be upgrades? (Because they already were better last year)

Nope...I'm comparing the lineup you posted to Cleveland, Boston and Toronto. Because that's who the Zards will have to beat to make it to the NBA Finals...and not last year's Wizards team.

But it's all good. I'm also hoping that Oubre, Sato and Mac make that next step and provide us with a much improved bench compared to last season.

Go Zards!

[gambitx777]

Koufos is too old.?

He is 28 not too at on and he's on a reasonable 2 year deal.

[gambitx777]

If it didn't cost us much more than a first to move mahini to a third team id still be all about moving mahinmi and Smith to get melo. If he's willing to play a bench roll . If not I would move mahinmi in a cap dump if I could.

I'm still super interested in seeing if you would toss a 2019 first and 2018 second at phx to get an Alex Len sign and trade with mahinmi as the main filler. If Len is 10 mill a year or less. Something like 4 for 40 . I'm still thinking a gortat for Zeller swap makes sense for the char and the wiz. I would also be fine making a mahinmi and a 2019 first and 2018 second for Lopez and Grant trade with Chicago.

[payitforward]

Koufos is too old.?

He is 28 not too at on and he's on a reasonable 2 year deal.

My bad, you are right. Don't want him anyway. Not if it costs us another R1 pick.

[gambitx777]

Koufos is too old.?

He is 28 not too at on and he's on a reasonable 2 year deal.

My bad, you are right. Don't want him anyway. Not if it costs us another R1 pick.

But youre not paying a first jsut for him, you are getting him and moving the mahinmi deal which is twice his and a year longer, so over all that's saving like 32 million, all while not really loosing a whole lot player wise.

[NatP4]

I would still love to see Melo in D.C. If we could move Mahinmi+Gortat and a 1st for him and Hernangomez.

[JWizmentality]

I would still love to see Melo in D.C. If we could move Mahinmi+Gortat and a 1st for him and Hernangomez.

Much rather make a run at Boogie. Melo is an instant gratification fix. The hang over would be brutal.