The Zach Lavine Problem

[Paxson43]

The majority of fans upset with / disliking a 22 year old kid that shot 38.7% from three last season are letting their Jimmy Butler emotions tie into the acquisition.

Keep in mind, Thibs didn't want to part with this kid last season, and the only reason we got him this season was because we threw in the 16th pick and he's coming off an ACL surgery. Since when, in this era, has ACL injuries ruined careers of 21, 22 year olds? This isn't someone that solely relies on his explosion/athleticism like Derrick Rose

You don't get a lot of 22 year olds that win dunk contests and potentially could have won a 3PT contest the same season. He's an upper echelon athlete in terms of his quickness and explosion, and he is a much better shooter than his reputation lends.

I think it's more of a clash between those who follow advanced stats or those who don't care for them. This post isn't intended to argue which group of posters is better or smarter (advanced stats tell some but not all of the story), more just explaining the thought process behind the guys who don't like LaVine are generally guys that like Butler.

I'm one who doesn't view LaVine as an asset because I see little chance that he could eclipse the value of his next contract (not a knock on LaVine specifically, but generally that's something that only all-stars and rookies do as NBA economics wildly underpay stars/rookies and shovel the cash that should be going to those guys to guys like LaVine), i do think he has a good chance to recover just fine from his injury.

With this new era of exploding NBA contracts, I don't think anyone really have a solid grasp on what a player truly deserves. I mean $200 million dollars for some of these dudes? It's asinine.

Gordon Hayward just got $32 million a year, and his career PER is 3.1 higher than what LaVine got last season. It's never going to match-up, so it boils down to how well they fit what you're trying to do and, IMO, their work ethic.

[chrispatrick]

The majority of fans upset with / disliking a 22 year old kid that shot 38.7% from three last season are letting their Jimmy Butler emotions tie into the acquisition.

Keep in mind, Thibs didn't want to part with this kid last season, and the only reason we got him this season was because we threw in the 16th pick and he's coming off an ACL surgery. Since when, in this era, has ACL injuries ruined careers of 21, 22 year olds? This isn't someone that solely relies on his explosion/athleticism like Derrick Rose

You don't get a lot of 22 year olds that win dunk contests and potentially could have won a 3PT contest the same season. He's an upper echelon athlete in terms of his quickness and explosion, and he is a much better shooter than his reputation lends.

I think it's more of a clash between those who follow advanced stats or those who don't care for them. This post isn't intended to argue which group of posters is better or smarter (advanced stats tell some but not all of the story), more just explaining the thought process behind the guys who don't like LaVine are generally guys that like Butler.

I'm one who doesn't view LaVine as an asset because I see little chance that he could eclipse the value of his next contract (not a knock on LaVine specifically, but generally that's something that only all-stars and rookies do as NBA economics wildly underpay stars/rookies and shovel the cash that should be going to those guys to guys like LaVine), i do think he has a good chance to recover just fine from his injury.

With this new era of exploding NBA contracts, I don't think anyone really have a solid grasp on what a player truly deserves. I mean $200 million dollars for some of these dudes? It's asinine.

Gordon Hayward just got $32 million a year, and his career PER is 3.1 higher than what LaVine got last season. It's never going to match-up, so it boils down to how well they fit what you're trying to do and, IMO, their work ethic.

I understand that the cap is exploding, but I am adamant that the people who are getting that money aren't the people deserving that money. It's the stupid maximum that they have on contracts and rookie contracts that skew everything. I realize that when Kevin Durant doesn't get the $80M+ a year he's worth, that money has to go somewhere in the NBA landscape and that's why you see all these middle tier players getting big contracts. But that doesn't mean it helps to be the team giving that money to people who don't impact the win/loss column just because everybody is doing it.

Hayward is also worlds apart in terms of on/off impact, so while he's only moderately ahead in one metric (PER), he's way ahead in team impact. By no means am I saying ESPN's CARMELO system is perfect, but it is objectively stat driven and says Hayward is $153M over the next 5 years. That same system says LaVine is with $29M over 5 years without even accounting for the injury.

You and I will both agree that ESPN's metric is somewhat flawed but it is using objective statistical data. My point in referencing it is not that it's the best system in the world, more just that advanced stats hate Zach LaVine.

[tunit213]

An article I found posted back in March about Lavine's ACL injury.....

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/03/22/minnesota-timberwovles-zach-lavine-says-he-will-return-acl-better-ever

Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio said he and teammate Brandon Rush - both of them have come back from ACL injuries earlier in their careers - can't believe how fluid LaVine is moving less than two months removed from the injury.

"It seems like he didn't have surgery," Rubio said. "He's walking around here, and me and (Rush) spent like six weeks with crutches. He's shooting already. He's a freak athlete, and you can tell the way he's recovering, if the season was one or two months more, he probably would play."

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

An article I found posted back in March about Lavine's ACL injury.....

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/03/22/minnesota-timberwovles-zach-lavine-says-he-will-return-acl-better-ever

Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio said he and teammate Brandon Rush - both of them have come back from ACL injuries earlier in their careers - can't believe how fluid LaVine is moving less than two months removed from the injury.

"It seems like he didn't have surgery," Rubio said. "He's walking around here, and me and (Rush) spent like six weeks with crutches. He's shooting already. He's a freak athlete, and you can tell the way he's recovering, if the season was one or two months more, he probably would play."

That's really encouraging. Thanks.

[RedBulls23]

An article I found posted back in March about Lavine's ACL injury.....

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/03/22/minnesota-timberwovles-zach-lavine-says-he-will-return-acl-better-ever

Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio said he and teammate Brandon Rush - both of them have come back from ACL injuries earlier in their careers - can't believe how fluid LaVine is moving less than two months removed from the injury.

"It seems like he didn't have surgery," Rubio said. "He's walking around here, and me and (Rush) spent like six weeks with crutches. He's shooting already. He's a freak athlete, and you can tell the way he's recovering, if the season was one or two months more, he probably would play."

That's really encouraging. Thanks.

At the same time I'm a bit jaded with the Drose stuff, and teammates hyping up his recovery.

I'll wait to have any hope till we see him on the court.

Big thing that I do like in the difference between he and Rose is that Lavine can shoot.

[WindyCityBorn]

I only hope the FO doesn't use the money to give him a max contract.

I doubt Lavine gets max money right after an ACL injury unless he averages 30ppg with good defense with the limited time he gets to play factoring his recovery and easing back to full minutes on a regular basis.

The odds are not in his favour, high chance we get him on a cheaper deal.

Plus weren't there reports that with the lower cap and shorter playoffs this year and contracts thrown around so far fewer teams would have space in 2018? Combine that with what seems like his own attitude and the Bulls' (and I'm sure the Bulls have discussed this with him) and I would expect him to come back mid-late season to get his feet wet but that's it. And the Bulls to have already discussed some prelim extension terms with him with the goal of giving him some certainty and the team getting him on ideally a Curry-esque contract that underpays him in years 2-4 but protects him from further injury (and/or maybe gives him a 3yr deal w opt- out in yr3 type of structure).

This is extremely wishful thinking on your part. He isn't signing for anywhere near $11 million per like Curry did because he doesn't have a chronic injury. Felicio just got $8 million he isn't 1/3 the player Lavine is.

[WindyCityBorn]

lol no chance.

At age 21, Harden's stats were inferior to his.

No they weren't.

Let's not be that idiotic forum that compares their middling young talents to superstars.

Middling talent? Are you even trying to be rational any more? I don't think he is gonna be a superstar, but consistent all-star is well within his reach. I'm really interested to see how he plays when Hoiberg gives him free reign to do as he pleases. He will be a leader on this team which is something he hasn't done before in college or the pros.

[WindyCityBorn]

An article I found posted back in March about Lavine's ACL injury.....

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/03/22/minnesota-timberwovles-zach-lavine-says-he-will-return-acl-better-ever

That's really encouraging. Thanks.

At the same time I'm a bit jaded with the Drose stuff, and teammates hyping up his recovery.

I'll wait to have any hope till we see him on the court.

Big thing that I do like in the difference between he and Rose is that Lavine can shoot.

Rose was a headcase. I wouldn't use him as a benchmark for any player's recovery. Dude refused to play when he was ready. Can't see Lavine pulling a stunt like that.

[tunit213]

Off topic a bit- Could use some fantasy basketball advice ...
I'm in a 2k sim league and got offered Zach Lavine (80 rated) for basically my 15ish pick this year and a 25ish pick. My team already has Jamal Murray at point, Wiggins at SF, Mitotic at PF, Gobert at C. So I can use a SG. Plus in our league Lavine has 2 more years left on his contract at only 4-5 mil per. If it wasn't for the acl injury I'd already do the deal especially in wanting a Bulls player on my team. Now it's a bit risky. Thoughts? Thanks in advance

[Paxson43]

An article I found posted back in March about Lavine's ACL injury.....

http://www.nba.com/article/2017/03/22/minnesota-timberwovles-zach-lavine-says-he-will-return-acl-better-ever

That's really encouraging. Thanks.

At the same time I'm a bit jaded with the Drose stuff, and teammates hyping up his recovery.

I'll wait to have any hope till we see him on the court.

Big thing that I do like in the difference between he and Rose is that Lavine can shoot.

I don't really call it hyping it up when someone says "I'm surprised this dude is walking, my buddy and I were still on crutches during this phase of rehab".

Kid's an athletic freak and a hard worker, solid combination in my world.

[ChiCitySPORTS#1]

Watch on YouTube

Has DRose all over it. Hope Lavine isnt bothered

[Hangtime84]

Off topic a bit- Could use some fantasy basketball advice ...
I'm in a 2k sim league and got offered Zach Lavine (80 rated) for basically my 15ish pick this year and a 25ish pick. My team already has Jamal Murray at point, Wiggins at SF, Mitotic at PF, Gobert at C. So I can use a SG. Plus in our league Lavine has 2 more years left on his contract at only 4-5 mil per. If it wasn't for the acl injury I'd already do the deal especially in wanting a Bulls player on my team. Now it's a bit risky. Thoughts? Thanks in advance

Lavine in 2k is kinda like JR smith used to be. Also lavine hot zones are pretty nice from 3.

[laxmosher1]

Zack Lavine
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2014-15|19|PG|77|40|24.7|3.7|8.8|.422|0.7|2.2|.341|1.9|2.3|.842|2.8|3.6|0.7|0.1|2.5|10.1|
|2015-16|20|SG|82|33|28.0|5.3|11.7|.452|1.5|3.9|.389|2.0|2.5|.793|2.8|3.1|0.8|0.2|1.9|14.0|
|2016-17|21|SG|47|47|37.2|6.9|15.1|.459|2.6|6.6|.387|2.5|3.0|.836|3.4|3.0|0.9|0.2|1.8|18.9|

James Harden
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2009-10|20|SG|76|0|22.9|3.1|7.6|.403|1.2|3.3|.375|2.6|3.2|.808|3.2|1.8|1.1|0.3|1.4|9.9|
|2010-11|21|SG|82|5|26.7|3.6|8.3|.436|1.4|4.0|.349|3.5|4.2|.843|3.1|2.1|1.1|0.3|1.3|12.2|
|2011-12|22|SG|62|2|31.4|5.0|10.1|.491|1.8|4.7|.390|5.0|6.0|.846|4.1|3.7|1.0|0.2|2.2|16.8|
|2012-13|23|SG|78|78|38.3|7.5|17.1|.438|2.3|6.2|.368|8.6|10.2|.851|4.9|5.8|1.8|0.5|3.8|25.9|

Who knows how Lavine will recover from his ACL injury but statistically he was on par with a Harden trajectory even with entering the league a year younger. If the biggest things he needs to work on is his handling and becoming a shot creator for others. I don't see why he can't develop those skills over the next 2-5 years. I think many people forget that most players are not a complete player by 21. Kobe, Lebron, Butler all continued to add new pieces to their game that took them to another level. I can't say for sure Lavine will take that huge leap but other than his injury there is no reason to think he can't considering he improved every year in the league.

[Chi]

Zack Lavine
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2014-15|19|PG|77|40|24.7|3.7|8.8|.422|0.7|2.2|.341|1.9|2.3|.842|2.8|3.6|0.7|0.1|2.5|10.1|
|2015-16|20|SG|82|33|28.0|5.3|11.7|.452|1.5|3.9|.389|2.0|2.5|.793|2.8|3.1|0.8|0.2|1.9|14.0|
|2016-17|21|SG|47|47|37.2|6.9|15.1|.459|2.6|6.6|.387|2.5|3.0|.836|3.4|3.0|0.9|0.2|1.8|18.9|

James Harden
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2009-10|20|SG|76|0|22.9|3.1|7.6|.403|1.2|3.3|.375|2.6|3.2|.808|3.2|1.8|1.1|0.3|1.4|9.9|
|2010-11|21|SG|82|5|26.7|3.6|8.3|.436|1.4|4.0|.349|3.5|4.2|.843|3.1|2.1|1.1|0.3|1.3|12.2|
|2011-12|22|SG|62|2|31.4|5.0|10.1|.491|1.8|4.7|.390|5.0|6.0|.846|4.1|3.7|1.0|0.2|2.2|16.8|
|2012-13|23|SG|78|78|38.3|7.5|17.1|.438|2.3|6.2|.368|8.6|10.2|.851|4.9|5.8|1.8|0.5|3.8|25.9|

Who knows how Lavine will recover from his ACL injury but statistically he was on par with a Harden trajectory even with entering the league a year younger. If the biggest things he needs to work on is his handling and becoming a shot creator for others. I don't see why he can't develop those skills over the next 2-5 years. I think many people forget that most players are not a complete player by 21. Kobe, Lebron, Butler all continued to add new pieces to their game that took them to another level. I can't say for sure Lavine will take that huge leap but other than his injury there is no reason to think he can't considering he improved every year in the league.

Wow so Lavine was like, Wayyyy better than Harden at the same age ...

Interesting...

[BullsFTW]

Zack Lavine
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2014-15|19|PG|77|40|24.7|3.7|8.8|.422|0.7|2.2|.341|1.9|2.3|.842|2.8|3.6|0.7|0.1|2.5|10.1|
|2015-16|20|SG|82|33|28.0|5.3|11.7|.452|1.5|3.9|.389|2.0|2.5|.793|2.8|3.1|0.8|0.2|1.9|14.0|
|2016-17|21|SG|47|47|37.2|6.9|15.1|.459|2.6|6.6|.387|2.5|3.0|.836|3.4|3.0|0.9|0.2|1.8|18.9|

James Harden
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2009-10|20|SG|76|0|22.9|3.1|7.6|.403|1.2|3.3|.375|2.6|3.2|.808|3.2|1.8|1.1|0.3|1.4|9.9|
|2010-11|21|SG|82|5|26.7|3.6|8.3|.436|1.4|4.0|.349|3.5|4.2|.843|3.1|2.1|1.1|0.3|1.3|12.2|
|2011-12|22|SG|62|2|31.4|5.0|10.1|.491|1.8|4.7|.390|5.0|6.0|.846|4.1|3.7|1.0|0.2|2.2|16.8|
|2012-13|23|SG|78|78|38.3|7.5|17.1|.438|2.3|6.2|.368|8.6|10.2|.851|4.9|5.8|1.8|0.5|3.8|25.9|

Who knows how Lavine will recover from his ACL injury but statistically he was on par with a Harden trajectory even with entering the league a year younger. If the biggest things he needs to work on is his handling and becoming a shot creator for others. I don't see why he can't develop those skills over the next 2-5 years. I think many people forget that most players are not a complete player by 21. Kobe, Lebron, Butler all continued to add new pieces to their game that took them to another level. I can't say for sure Lavine will take that huge leap but other than his injury there is no reason to think he can't considering he improved every year in the league.

Like what you've mentioned, he needs to be a better playmaker. However, he also needs to improve his defense and learn how to draw fouls.

[laxmosher1]

Agreed on the play making and drawing fouls. I think the play making would be helped if we had a competent coach, but sometimes a team will run an offense around a player which will give them more opportunities to create plays for others. If you think about how ball dominate Harden is, you would expect him to have high assist numbers because he IS the offense (same with Westbrook). I don't know if Lavine will get to that level but that's the hope and he already has the shooting and athletic ability to be that kind of player.

Now I don't think many players will get to the Harden level of drawing fouls but he also has increased his foul rate each year. The thing about Harden is he came into the league with that mentality. He averaged over 3 fouls a game as a rookie, and jumped up to 4.2, 6.0, 10.2 every year after. This is the one stat I think I'll pay attention to most for a young Lavine, since he already is an impressive shooter I want to see if he can be crafty enough to get to the free throw line for easy points. If Lavine can average even 6-8 Free Throw attempts per game I think combined with the rest of his skills would make him a consistent all star.

[TheSuzerain]

....Lavine's Free Throw Rate has dropped every season he's been in the league so far.

[TheSuzerain]

Zack Lavine
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2014-15|19|PG|77|40|24.7|3.7|8.8|.422|0.7|2.2|.341|1.9|2.3|.842|2.8|3.6|0.7|0.1|2.5|10.1|
|2015-16|20|SG|82|33|28.0|5.3|11.7|.452|1.5|3.9|.389|2.0|2.5|.793|2.8|3.1|0.8|0.2|1.9|14.0|
|2016-17|21|SG|47|47|37.2|6.9|15.1|.459|2.6|6.6|.387|2.5|3.0|.836|3.4|3.0|0.9|0.2|1.8|18.9|

James Harden
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2009-10|20|SG|76|0|22.9|3.1|7.6|.403|1.2|3.3|.375|2.6|3.2|.808|3.2|1.8|1.1|0.3|1.4|9.9|
|2010-11|21|SG|82|5|26.7|3.6|8.3|.436|1.4|4.0|.349|3.5|4.2|.843|3.1|2.1|1.1|0.3|1.3|12.2|
|2011-12|22|SG|62|2|31.4|5.0|10.1|.491|1.8|4.7|.390|5.0|6.0|.846|4.1|3.7|1.0|0.2|2.2|16.8|
|2012-13|23|SG|78|78|38.3|7.5|17.1|.438|2.3|6.2|.368|8.6|10.2|.851|4.9|5.8|1.8|0.5|3.8|25.9|

Who knows how Lavine will recover from his ACL injury but statistically he was on par with a Harden trajectory even with entering the league a year younger. If the biggest things he needs to work on is his handling and becoming a shot creator for others. I don't see why he can't develop those skills over the next 2-5 years. I think many people forget that most players are not a complete player by 21. Kobe, Lebron, Butler all continued to add new pieces to their game that took them to another level. I can't say for sure Lavine will take that huge leap but other than his injury there is no reason to think he can't considering he improved every year in the league.

Wow so Lavine was like, Wayyyy better than Harden at the same age ...

Interesting...

uhhh no.

Harden has always and will always be better. Full stop.

[Lauri_Legend]

Zack Lavine
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2014-15|19|PG|77|40|24.7|3.7|8.8|.422|0.7|2.2|.341|1.9|2.3|.842|2.8|3.6|0.7|0.1|2.5|10.1|
|2015-16|20|SG|82|33|28.0|5.3|11.7|.452|1.5|3.9|.389|2.0|2.5|.793|2.8|3.1|0.8|0.2|1.9|14.0|
|2016-17|21|SG|47|47|37.2|6.9|15.1|.459|2.6|6.6|.387|2.5|3.0|.836|3.4|3.0|0.9|0.2|1.8|18.9|

James Harden
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2009-10|20|SG|76|0|22.9|3.1|7.6|.403|1.2|3.3|.375|2.6|3.2|.808|3.2|1.8|1.1|0.3|1.4|9.9|
|2010-11|21|SG|82|5|26.7|3.6|8.3|.436|1.4|4.0|.349|3.5|4.2|.843|3.1|2.1|1.1|0.3|1.3|12.2|
|2011-12|22|SG|62|2|31.4|5.0|10.1|.491|1.8|4.7|.390|5.0|6.0|.846|4.1|3.7|1.0|0.2|2.2|16.8|
|2012-13|23|SG|78|78|38.3|7.5|17.1|.438|2.3|6.2|.368|8.6|10.2|.851|4.9|5.8|1.8|0.5|3.8|25.9|

Who knows how Lavine will recover from his ACL injury but statistically he was on par with a Harden trajectory even with entering the league a year younger. If the biggest things he needs to work on is his handling and becoming a shot creator for others. I don't see why he can't develop those skills over the next 2-5 years. I think many people forget that most players are not a complete player by 21. Kobe, Lebron, Butler all continued to add new pieces to their game that took them to another level. I can't say for sure Lavine will take that huge leap but other than his injury there is no reason to think he can't considering he improved every year in the league.

Yoooooooooooo. We about to get lit....Lavine 2022 MVP runner up

[laxmosher1]

....Lavine's Free Throw Rate has dropped every season he's been in the league so far.

It hasn't..
2.3
2.5
3.0