Time to say NO to NikO? - update Niko signed 2/27

[TheStig]

Spoiler:

I can't say I've seen a ton of Olynyk but I've never heard anyone call him even an average defender. I'm guessing that you're not high on his defense either, you just think is a poor defender. He's not. He's improved a lot, to the point that he's at least average. There's a lot more to defense than how fundamentally sound a player's help defense is. And I've seen Mirotic play good help defense.



According to the NBA.com data, which I think comes from Sports Vu, Mirotic passes more than Olynyk. Olynyk just gets assists (and turnovers, I'm sure) on a higher percentage of his passes. I suppose that just comes down to who is more willing to attempt difficult passes? It could also be a matter of scheme. I know that Mirotic has the ability to be a very good passer because I've seen him make a lot of great passes.



We know for sure that Olynyk isn't far more efficient when he shoots. That's a math question where the stats tell the entire story and Olynyk's career TS% of .567 is practically tied with Mirotic's .558 mark.



It might be that you don't want to get into them with me because I tie it back to the stats, the objective evidence, which tend to starkly contrast with this notion of Mirotic as a low IQ player. People say, "Oh, he makes the most boneheaded decisions with the basketball." Which would make you think that his turnover rate is sky high but it's actually very good. People say, "Oh, but he has the worst shot selection." And you would think that he then misses a bunch of shots but his scoring efficiency is actually quite good. It's one of the best on the Bulls every season and roughly as good as Olynyk, who you incorrectly assumed has far better efficiency for whatever reason. And then people like to say, "Well, the way he plays doesn't show up in the box score. You gotta watch the games to see how he hurts the team." And my response to that is to go to the on/off stats, which show Mirotic as helping the Bulls win more than any player with the exception of Jimmy Butler the last three seasons. It's amazing how there's this prevalent view, shared by respected basketball minds like yours, that Mirotic is constantly making dumb plays that hurt his team and yet, we have this wealth of data these days, and essentially all of it contradicts this view and none of it supports it

.

Random comments:
- This year, Olynyk had a ts% of 60.3%. Mirotic was 54.6%. That's an appreciable difference. You used the career numbers to make it look closer but no one is evaluating a player in free agency based on what they did 3 years ago (which was Mirotic's best year).

- Most of your supporting data for Mirotic comes from on/off stuff. While its true that his numbers don't look bad in that regard, they don't look great either.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/CHI/2017/lineups/

What does look great is his numbers with Butler and somewhat Lopez. It might be worth a separate conversation as to why, but Mirotic's numbers without Butler have to be horrific. Perhaps he really is creating space for top players while those guys are creating shots for him yet when put in a bigger role with lesser players his dunder head plays kill the team.

- I do have a set of numbers that support him sucking though. His playoff numbers. He was dam near worst on the team for on/off in the playoffs. This matches with the eye test and confirms the view that he doesn't handle pressure well. While its a small sample size and many of his PO games were from 3 years ago, he had a 9.8PER in 2015 and a 9.5 this year.

Just to be clear, in 17 career playoff games, Mirotic has a PER of 9.6, ts% of 44.5%. Olynyk has bounced around, but he played well in the PO this year and overall has a playoff PER of 13.6 and ts% of 57.4 in 26 games.
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I just looked at his playoff numbers from last year. They are bad - but mostly it's that his already poor shooting percentages went down - his volume was ok... for a bench guy. Olynyk, in comparison, was much stronger (PER over 16, TS at 59.7) - and a year younger than Niko. Portis was also much better, but that's probably jacked by the one game he went off during...

Eh, I don't get the debate. Mirotic is an ok role player. Portis and Lauri can do just as good of a job jacking up bad shots. Why do we need Mirotic on a big deal?

[kodo]

He’s a RFA. If he wants $16M+, go out and get that offer sheet first.

I’d be surprised if any team other than Brooklyn is desperate to lock up $16M of their FA money on Niko. But I could be wrong, last summer’s FA had a lot of idiotic contracts like Evan Turner $70M or Austin Rivers $36M.

Either way the Bulls will be fine. They can match a reasonable offer or let him walk on a stupid one.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

Niko is worth $5M more per season than Felicio, but Felicio is worth only about $5M/season (despite what he got paid).

If that is what you believe. I'm not going to be disrespectful and give the lol emoji as my response.

First, thank you for your restraint.

Second, show me some comps for guys this year that support your assertion.

Not necessarily a comp but - PJ Tucker was just signed by Morey for the same as Felicio - 4yrs 32 million.

There have only been 4 or 5 C signings in FA this year. Of those the closest comp is Kelly Olynyk who just signed for 4yrs 50 million.

Looking at forwards - Serge Ibaka just got 22 million a year.

James Johnson just got 15 million a year

[Ice Man]

Eh, I don't get the debate. Mirotic is an ok role player. Portis and Lauri can do just as good of a job jacking up bad shots. Why do we need Mirotic on a big deal?

Kinda where I am. Only kinda because Niko defends, and Portis is still working on that, and we don't know about Lauri. But offensively, I think both those guys can already match what Niko does. That isn't hard.

[holv03]

Bulls offer for Nikola is 3 years $36 million. Niko wants close to 19 a year which is crazy. I think we should let him walk. He's not a $19M a year player.

[BeatDaCavs420]

Read on Twitter

Not sure how reliable this person is. If it's accurate, than hard pass on Niko.

OMG I will die if they pay him this

Please don't

[sco]

If that is what you believe. I'm not going to be disrespectful and give the lol emoji as my response.

First, thank you for your restraint.

Second, show me some comps for guys this year that support your assertion.

Not necessarily a comp but - PJ Tucker was just signed by Morey for the same as Felicio - 4yrs 32 million.

There have only been 4 or 5 C signings in FA this year. Of those the closest comp is Kelly Olynyk who just signed for 4yrs 50 million.

Looking at forwards - Serge Ibaka just got 22 million a year.

James Johnson just got 15 million a year

I think Alan William 3/$17 and Aron Baynes 1/$4 are at least comps for quality back-up C's who are skilled by not elite 3pt shooters or shot blockers.

[BeatDaCavs420]

12.5 million a year is highest I would go

Obviously no teams are offering him anything good. I mean there hasn't even been a matching offer on the table yet. And that says a lot.

[League Circles]

Bulls offer for Nikola is 3 years $36 million. Niko wants close to 19 a year which is crazy. I think we should let him walk. He's not a $19M a year player.

Thanks a lot for the info. 3/36 is fair.

[Stratmaster]

Niko is worth $5M more per season than Felicio, but Felicio is worth only about $5M/season (despite what he got paid).

If that is what you believe. I'm not going to be disrespectful and give the lol emoji as my response.

First, thank you for your restraint.

Second, show me some comps for guys this year that support your assertion.

C.J. freaking Watson makes 5mil a year.

If someone wants to make a case that it should have been 7.5 mil, we can split hairs. Show me some comps for 5 mil who are as talented, young and have the upside Felicio has.

[kodo]

But that's all Mirotic brings to the NBA:
- He isn't a playmaker and doesn't draw fouls.
- He isn't a good help or team defender.
- His defensive rebounding is mediocre and his offensive rebounding is atrocious.

If Mirotic isn't shooting well, he is worthless. He is a 1 dimensional player who's 1 dimension frequently disappears.

Agreed #1.
But strongly disagree with #2 & #3.
Comparing Niko to other comparables, which means not top tier PFs like Draymond and Anthony Davis, he's both a strong defender & and a strong rebounder.

Niko vs other PFs who have to spend significant time on the perimeter (and most less than Niko):

Defense: DRPM
Porzingis +1.90
Niko +1.31
Ibaka +1.08
LMA +1.05
Blake Griffin +0.76
Dirk +0.64
Ryan Anderson -0.12
Aaron Gordon -0.78
Jabari Parker -1.61

Rebounding per 36 minutes:
Niko 8.2
Blake Griffin 8.1
Porzingis 7.9
LMA 7.3
Ibaka 6.8
Dirk 6.5
Jabari Parker 6.5
Aaron Gordon 6.3
Ryan Anderson 4.6

Being a stretch 4 who has to spend your time on the perimeter hurts your ability to help defend & rebound, Niko has done well considering he lives out there.

IMO, most people have Niko's situation completely opposite. Mirotic's positives having nothing to do with his sketchy offense...his positives as a roleplayer are that he's a plus defender & one of the best rebounders, for a stretch 4.

[fudgie]

Niko's max is 24.7 million first year. No way he's worth three quarters of a max deal. Half of the max at best, and to me even that's pushing it.

I'm for playing hardball with him. Worst case he takes the QO and goes behind Lauri and Portis on the depth chart.

[MrFortune3]

Read on Twitter

Not sure how reliable this person is. If it's accurate, than hard pass on Niko.

Given the contracts given out in today's NBA that's not a ton of money. Do I think Niko deserves that much per year? No, but I don't think most of the contracts signed the past 2 years are deserved either.

He can always be traded at a later date if he fails to live up to it.

[Magilla_Gorilla]

I think Alan William 3/$17 and Aron Baynes 1/$4 are at least comps for quality back-up C's who are skilled by not elite 3pt shooters or shot blockers.

Williams is a reasonable comp - but get out of here with that Baynes comparison. Baynes is 6 years older and has 5 years in the NBA. At least part of Felicio's worth is that he still has some 'potential'.

Williams and Felicio are both 24 entering their third seasons - and depending which metric you favor its debatable who has been better the last two seasons. Its possible Felicio could have been gotten for 6 million a year - but I'm not sure the Bulls thought it was worth losing him to find that out.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

3/36 is too much for a guy who couldn't (and probably won't) field an offer sheet, whose role is duplicated by other players on the team, and who doesn't line up with our most promising players, age-wise.

[Pnjguy]

Niko is not an asset going forward at $19 mill a year. And the Bulls at this point are not interested in 1 year deals. So unless Niko comes down, looks to me like he's gone.

[boozapalooza]

Bulls offer for Nikola is 3 years $36 million. Niko wants close to 19 a year which is crazy. I think we should let him walk. He's not a $19M a year player.

The fact theres such little interest in him says a lot. Hes lucky we offered him 12M. Doubt anyone offers him a higher amount except maybe BKN, since the Wiz matched on Porter. I'd rather spend the money on Ian Clark or anyone else, its time to move on from Niko.

[coldfish]

But that's all Mirotic brings to the NBA:
- He isn't a playmaker and doesn't draw fouls.
- He isn't a good help or team defender.
- His defensive rebounding is mediocre and his offensive rebounding is atrocious.

If Mirotic isn't shooting well, he is worthless. He is a 1 dimensional player who's 1 dimension frequently disappears.

Agreed #1.
But strongly disagree with #2 & #3.
Comparing Niko to other comparables, which means not top tier PFs like Draymond and Anthony Davis, he's both a strong defender & and a strong rebounder.

Niko vs other PFs who have to spend significant time on the perimeter (and most less than Niko):

Defense: DRPM
Porzingis +1.90
Niko +1.31
Ibaka +1.08
LMA +1.05
Blake Griffin +0.76
Dirk +0.64
Ryan Anderson -0.12
Aaron Gordon -0.78
Jabari Parker -1.61

Rebounding per 36 minutes:
Niko 8.2
Blake Griffin 8.1
Porzingis 7.9
LMA 7.3
Ibaka 6.8
Dirk 6.5
Jabari Parker 6.5
Aaron Gordon 6.3
Ryan Anderson 4.6

Being a stretch 4 who has to spend your time on the perimeter hurts your ability to help defend & rebound, Niko has done well considering he lives out there.

IMO, most people have Niko's situation completely opposite. Mirotic's positives having nothing to do with his sketchy offense...his positives as a roleplayer are that he's a plus defender & one of the best rebounders, for a stretch 4.

1. Being a stretch 4 on offense has no impact on your defense or defensive rebounding.
2. Comparing Niko to other 1 dimensional players to show that he isn't 1 dimensional doesn't make sense. He is *good* at only one thing (shooting), but that's inconsistent. He is mediocre at a few (man defense, defensive rebouding) and poor at others (passing, help defense, playmaking).

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

We need to stop calling them "stretch 4s". Shooting 3s is now a baseline expectation for PFs.

[MrFortune3]

We need to stop calling them "stretch 4s". Shooting 3s is now a baseline expectation for PFs.

Just because it's semi expected doesn't mean it will happen. The ones that can are still stretch 4's.