The Zach Lavine Problem

[TheSuzerain]

....Lavine's Free Throw Rate has dropped every season he's been in the league so far.

It hasn't..
2.3
2.5
3.0

That's a raw fouls drawn number (I assume), and is entirely driven by his minutes played.

His free throw attempts per field goal attempt has been on a steady decline as his 3Pr rose.

[Paxson43]

....Lavine's Free Throw Rate has dropped every season he's been in the league so far.

It hasn't..
2.3
2.5
3.0

That's a raw fouls drawn number (I assume), and is entirely driven by his minutes played.

His free throw attempts per field goal attempt has been on a steady decline as his 3Pr rose.

Inverse to his increase in 3 point attempts... shocker!

[Jcool0]

He did say during the Summer League game he wants to get to the FT line more.

[laxmosher1]

....Lavine's Free Throw Rate has dropped every season he's been in the league so far.

It hasn't..
2.3
2.5
3.0

That's a raw fouls drawn number (I assume), and is entirely driven by his minutes played.

His free throw attempts per field goal attempt has been on a steady decline as his 3Pr rose.

Wish you were more clear with your 1 sentence post but anyway, most of that can be attributed to how he was used. As a rookie he played primarily PG then was moved off ball as a shooter. He ran high PnR's that let me play more outside the 3 line. Also watching him it seemed like he had the DRose gift of avoiding contact on his drives. Like I said I'd love to see him draw more fouls, maybe that's not part of his game but I'm keeping an eye on it this year for sure.

[TheSuzerain]

It hasn't..
2.3
2.5
3.0

That's a raw fouls drawn number (I assume), and is entirely driven by his minutes played.

His free throw attempts per field goal attempt has been on a steady decline as his 3Pr rose.

Inverse to his increase in 3 point attempts... shocker!

Not shocking. Still not good. And certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects as a dynamic player on the ball.

[Paxson43]

That's a raw fouls drawn number (I assume), and is entirely driven by his minutes played.

His free throw attempts per field goal attempt has been on a steady decline as his 3Pr rose.

Inverse to his increase in 3 point attempts... shocker!

Not shocking. Still not good. And certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects as a dynamic player on the ball.

For a kid who just turned 22... yeah I'm not writing him off just yet. Almost half his FG attempts were 3 pointers, I'm curious to see how he plays with the spacing our team is (hopefully) going to afford him.

[Ben]

Inverse to his increase in 3 point attempts... shocker!

Not shocking. Still not good. And certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects as a dynamic player on the ball.

For a kid who just turned 22... yeah I'm not writing him off just yet. Almost half his FG attempts were 3 pointers, I'm curious to see how he plays with the spacing our team is (hopefully) going to afford him.

Out of curiosity, do we have any reason to suspect that our team will provide better spacing than Minnesota's? Wiggins could drive and also shoot 3s, KAT shot 36.7% from 3P range while also being a force inside, Deng is an inside guy but also shot 37.2% from 3P range on 0.5 attempts per game, Rubio was an excellent distributor... how are we likely to get LaVine better looks or the ability not to be double-teamed, etc?

[Paxson43]

Not shocking. Still not good. And certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects as a dynamic player on the ball.

For a kid who just turned 22... yeah I'm not writing him off just yet. Almost half his FG attempts were 3 pointers, I'm curious to see how he plays with the spacing our team is (hopefully) going to afford him.

Out of curiosity, do we have any reason to suspect that our team will provide better spacing than Minnesota's? Wiggins could drive and also shoot 3s, KAT shot 36.7% from 3P range while also being a force inside, Deng is an inside guy but also shot 37.2% from 3P range on 0.5 attempts per game, Rubio was an excellent distributor... how are we likely to get LaVine better looks or the ability not to be double-teamed, etc?

Going off what LaVine said in his interview Saturday, he seems genuinely excited to play in this offense due to its spacing, etc.

As for what actually will transpire on the court? Your guess is as good as mine... but reading Valentine's quotes from the official homepage, he used the word "unselfish" a number of times. Take that for what you will.

[MrFortune3]

Not shocking. Still not good. And certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects as a dynamic player on the ball.

For a kid who just turned 22... yeah I'm not writing him off just yet. Almost half his FG attempts were 3 pointers, I'm curious to see how he plays with the spacing our team is (hopefully) going to afford him.

Out of curiosity, do we have any reason to suspect that our team will provide better spacing than Minnesota's? Wiggins could drive and also shoot 3s, KAT shot 36.7% from 3P range while also being a force inside, Deng is an inside guy but also shot 37.2% from 3P range on 0.5 attempts per game, Rubio was an excellent distributor... how are we likely to get LaVine better looks or the ability not to be double-teamed, etc?

Not sure that we will create better spacing than Minnesota for him but given the assumed context of his role he should be more lethal. He is going to be the lead guy in an offense that is going to space the floor and provide him opportunities to make plays.

He and Wade should make a very nice combination to play off one another. Dunn's ability to run the offense and make shots consistently is going to be key though. If Markkanen, Niko, Portis, can keep the floor spaced as bigs then it will make it easier on Dunn, if Dunn can run the offense then it means LaVine and Wade can freelance off the ball and then when they get the ball in their hands they can do damage.

[BullsFTW]

He did say during the Summer League game he wants to get to the FT line more.

That's good to hear. I hope he does.

[Chi]

Zack Lavine
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2014-15|19|PG|77|40|24.7|3.7|8.8|.422|0.7|2.2|.341|1.9|2.3|.842|2.8|3.6|0.7|0.1|2.5|10.1|
|2015-16|20|SG|82|33|28.0|5.3|11.7|.452|1.5|3.9|.389|2.0|2.5|.793|2.8|3.1|0.8|0.2|1.9|14.0|
|2016-17|21|SG|47|47|37.2|6.9|15.1|.459|2.6|6.6|.387|2.5|3.0|.836|3.4|3.0|0.9|0.2|1.8|18.9|

James Harden
|Season|Age|Pos|G|GS|MP|FG|FGA|FG%|3P|3PA|3P%|FT|FTA|FT%|TRB|AST|STL|BLK|TOV|PTS|
|2009-10|20|SG|76|0|22.9|3.1|7.6|.403|1.2|3.3|.375|2.6|3.2|.808|3.2|1.8|1.1|0.3|1.4|9.9|
|2010-11|21|SG|82|5|26.7|3.6|8.3|.436|1.4|4.0|.349|3.5|4.2|.843|3.1|2.1|1.1|0.3|1.3|12.2|
|2011-12|22|SG|62|2|31.4|5.0|10.1|.491|1.8|4.7|.390|5.0|6.0|.846|4.1|3.7|1.0|0.2|2.2|16.8|
|2012-13|23|SG|78|78|38.3|7.5|17.1|.438|2.3|6.2|.368|8.6|10.2|.851|4.9|5.8|1.8|0.5|3.8|25.9|

Who knows how Lavine will recover from his ACL injury but statistically he was on par with a Harden trajectory even with entering the league a year younger. If the biggest things he needs to work on is his handling and becoming a shot creator for others. I don't see why he can't develop those skills over the next 2-5 years. I think many people forget that most players are not a complete player by 21. Kobe, Lebron, Butler all continued to add new pieces to their game that took them to another level. I can't say for sure Lavine will take that huge leap but other than his injury there is no reason to think he can't considering he improved every year in the league.

Wow so Lavine was like, Wayyyy better than Harden at the same age ...

Interesting...

uhhh no.

Harden has always and will always be better. Full stop.

Well statistics AKA Facts, say differently...

But who am I to argue with your fantasies?

[Jcool0]

Wow so Lavine was like, Wayyyy better than Harden at the same age ...

Interesting...

uhhh no.

Harden has always and will always be better. Full stop.

Well statistics AKA Facts, say differently...

But who am I to argue with your fantasies?

I think Lavine will be a really good player for the Bulls. But Harden was and is a better player.

[Chi]

uhhh no.

Harden has always and will always be better. Full stop.

Well statistics AKA Facts, say differently...

But who am I to argue with your fantasies?

I think Lavine will be a really good player for the Bulls. But Harden was and is a better player.

I haven't said that Lavine is, or will ever be as good as Harden has become...

But he pretty obviously was.

[FecesOfDeath]

Not shocking. Still not good. And certainly doesn't bode well for his prospects as a dynamic player on the ball.

For a kid who just turned 22... yeah I'm not writing him off just yet. Almost half his FG attempts were 3 pointers, I'm curious to see how he plays with the spacing our team is (hopefully) going to afford him.

Out of curiosity, do we have any reason to suspect that our team will provide better spacing than Minnesota's? Wiggins could drive and also shoot 3s, KAT shot 36.7% from 3P range while also being a force inside, Deng is an inside guy but also shot 37.2% from 3P range on 0.5 attempts per game, Rubio was an excellent distributor... how are we likely to get LaVine better looks or the ability not to be double-teamed, etc?

The Timberwolves last year made and attempted the least amount of threes per game in the entire league, but they were kind of accurate when they shot (20th in the NBA in three point shooting accuracy).

Unless Thibs acquires a shooter, I don't see his team jacking up very many threes any time soon. Sure, they added Teague and got rid of Rubio, but they also lost LaVine, so their shooting volume will probably not change or even get worse.

[JohnnyTapwater]

We may have something if LaVine can learn to draw fouls at the rate of Harden...

I don't know why these young players don't realize this is the key to efficiency.

[Jcool0]

Well statistics AKA Facts, say differently...

But who am I to argue with your fantasies?

I think Lavine will be a really good player for the Bulls. But Harden was and is a better player.

I haven't said that Lavine is, or will ever be as good as Harden has become...

But he pretty obviously was.

Was he?

James Harden (09-12): 17.2 PER, .605 TS%, .457 3PAr, .503 FTr, 3.1 OBPM, 6.9 VORP

Zach LaVine (14-17): 13.4 PER, .547 TS%, .338 3PAr, .222 FTr, 0.5 OBPM, -0.1 VORP

[Chi]

I think Lavine will be a really good player for the Bulls. But Harden was and is a better player.

I haven't said that Lavine is, or will ever be as good as Harden has become...

But he pretty obviously was.

Was he?

James Harden (09-12): 17.2 PER, .605 TS%, .457 3PAr, .503 FTr, 3.1 OBPM, 6.9 VORP

Zach LaVine (14-17): 13.4 PER, .547 TS%, .338 3PAr, .222 FTr, 0.5 OBPM, -0.1 VORP

Age 20 & 21 are the only 2 ages we can go by. As my argument was he was better at the same age...

[Chi]

We may have something if LaVine can learn to draw fouls at the rate of Harden...

I don't know why these young players don't realize this is the key to efficiency.

I agree this would in theory take him to a new level offensively.

But at the same time I'd rather he not try to do it. I don't think he's built to withstand physical punishment like Harden can.

I'd rather he have a long healthy career and avg 5 less ppg...

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

We may have something if LaVine can learn to draw fouls at the rate of Harden...

I don't know why these young players don't realize this is the key to efficiency.

That's asking way, way too much imo. Nobody draws fouls like Harden.

[Jcool0]

I haven't said that Lavine is, or will ever be as good as Harden has become...

But he pretty obviously was.

Was he?

James Harden (09-12): 17.2 PER, .605 TS%, .457 3PAr, .503 FTr, 3.1 OBPM, 6.9 VORP

Zach LaVine (14-17): 13.4 PER, .547 TS%, .338 3PAr, .222 FTr, 0.5 OBPM, -0.1 VORP

Age 20 & 21 are the only 2 ages we can go by. As my argument was he was better at the same age...

Okay....

Harden (10-11): 15.3 PER, .577 TS%, .453 3PAr, .462 FTr, 1.9 OBPM, 3.7 VORP

LaVine (16-17): 14.4 PER, .560 TS%, .375 3PAr, .206 FTr, 1.5 OBPM, 1.1 VORP

Harden was still better.