RealGM Top 100 List 2017: #12

[trex_8063]

We did it! The Top Eleven are the right eleven players!

Indeed we did.



The great injustice of 2014 has been avenged in the last thread.

Cut it out, both of you. trex

[trex_8063]

MY VOTE:
Karl Malone (GOAT #2 PF)
Dr J (GOAT #2 SF)
Big "O" (GOAT #2 PG)
Jerry West, Bird, Pettit, Cousy (in this order. GOAT #3s at their respective positions)

.

Can't tell if I'm to interpret this as Karl Malone is your first vote and Dr J is your second, or if you're simply listing multiple candidates you're considering. As per previous instructions, please label your picks clearly (e.g. "1st vote: XXXX, 2nd vote: XXXX") as well as bolding them within large posts.

[ardee]

I like Oscar here. I used to have him and West neck and neck but I do believe there is a small but clear separation after thinking on it for some time. Will make an argument in a bit.

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[Winsome Gerbil]

It remains difficult to convince me that:

A)
This player:
Garnett: 25626pts 14201reb 5306ast 18.6pts 10.3reb 3.9ast .546TS% 22.7PER 191.4WS .185WS/48 9xAllNBA 1xMVP

Is greater than this player:
Mailman: 36928pts 14968reb 5248ast 25.0pts 10.1reb 3.6ast .577TS% 23.9PER 234.6WS .205WS/48 14xAllNBA 2xMVP

VERY difficult. You have to believe in an almost magical level of defense with a fervor rarely seen.

It's not even like KG can cleanly play the playoffs card to make up the gap:

Garnett: 18.2pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .525TS% 21.1PER 16.4WS .149WS/48
Mailman: 24.7pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .526TS% 21.1PER 23.0WS .140WS/48

You can find a stat here or a stat there, but without becoming intentionally myopic you have to really bear down in the face of one of the truly massive careers the NBA has produced. Saying a PF is better than Karl "Mailman" Malone, Dream Teamer, 2nd leading scorer and 7th leading rebounder in NBA history, one half of the most famous pick and roll combination in league history, and a player nearly universally considered the greatest of all time at his position before Tim Duncan, who was half a center anyway, came along....well making that statement should require more than finding this statistical corner or that, especially in the face of a massive productivity gap. Mailman was a very important figure, and would likely have appeared even moreso had he not played in the era of Jordan (for instance 5 times he was the scoring champion runnerup to Jordan, he finished 2nd to him in MVP voting in Jordan's final year, and twice he made the Finals, and lost both times to MJ).

[Pablo Novi]

MY VOTE:
Karl Malone (GOAT #2 PF)
Dr J (GOAT #2 SF)
Big "O" (GOAT #2 PG)
Jerry West, Bird, Pettit, Cousy (in this order. GOAT #3s at their respective positions)

.

Can't tell if I'm to interpret this as Karl Malone is your first vote and Dr J is your second, or if you're simply listing multiple candidates you're considering. As per previous instructions, please label your picks clearly (e.g. "1st vote: XXXX, 2nd vote: XXXX") as well as bolding them within large posts.

My first vote: Karl Malone
My 2nd vote: Dr J.

[JoeMalburg]

It remains difficult to convince me that:

A)
This player:
Garnett: 25626pts 14201reb 5306ast 18.6pts 10.3reb 3.9ast .546TS% 22.7PER 191.4WS .185WS/48 9xAllNBA 1xMVP

Is greater than this player:
Mailman: 36928pts 14968reb 5248ast 25.0pts 10.1reb 3.6ast .577TS% 23.9PER 234.6WS .205WS/48 14xAllNBA 2xMVP

VERY difficult. You have to believe in an almost magical level of defense with a fervor rarely seen.

It's not even like KG can cleanly play the playoffs card to make up the gap:

Garnett: 18.2pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .525TS% 21.1PER 16.4WS .149WS/48
Mailman: 24.7pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .526TS% 21.1PER 23.0WS .140WS/48

You can find a stat here or a stat there, but without becoming intentionally myopic you have to really bear down in the face of one of the truly massive careers the NBA has produced. Saying a PF is better than Karl "Mailman" Malone, Dream Teamer, 2nd leading scorer and 7th leading rebounder in NBA history, one half of the most famous pick and roll combination in league history, and a player nearly universally considered the greatest of all time at his position before Tim Duncan, who was half a center anyway, came along....well making that statement should require more than finding this statistical corner or that, especially in the face of a massive productivity gap. Mailman was a very important figure, and would likely have appeared even moreso had he not played in the era of Jordan (for instance 5 times he was the scoring champion runnerup to Jordan, he finished 2nd to him in MVP voting in Jordan's final year, and twice he made the Finals, and lost both times to MJ).

I can't stand Karl Malone and yet I have to agree.

Garnett is one of those players who has the peak numbers and the look of a player ranked 10 spots higher than he has the career and resume to back up.

[Winsome Gerbil]

It also remains difficult to convince me that:

B)

This player:
Nowitzki: 30260pts 10893reb 3496ast 21.7pts 7.8reb 2.5ast .578TS% 22.9PER 201.3WS .198WS/48 3.4BPM 66.0VORP 12xAllNBA 1xMVP

Is greater than this player:
Barkley: 23757pts 12546reb 4215ast 22.1pts 11.7reb 3.9ast .612TS% 24.6PER 177.2WS .216WS/48 7.4BPM 93.5VORP 11xAllNBA 1xMVP


Who was just as dominant as a goto scorer, and could do a lot more things to boot. On that comparison at least you can play the "longevity" card. But it's telling that beyond points scored Dirk's longevity still hasn't seem him catch up to Chuck's other totals. Both guys were great goto guy scorers, but Sir Charles has a crushing efficiency advantage -- the gap between Chuck and Dirk is actually as big as the gap between Dirk and KG. And that's supposed to be a primary Dirk argument. And that's just the tip of the Chuck iceberg. He was much more than just a scorer, and had more ways to beat you. He even had 20 triple doubles in his career. Dirk had 2.

Dirk was of course a great playoff performer. But again, so was Chuck:

Nowitzki 25.3pts 10.0reb 2.5ast .577TS% 23.8PER 23.1WS .188WS/48 4.0BPM 8.9VORP
Barkley 23.0pts 12.9reb 3.9ast .584TS% 24.2PER 19.5WS .193WS/48 7.3BPM 11.3VORP

[wojoaderge]

What's funny to me is that, sometime around the 40s i'd say, hopefully every inarguable all-time great will be up there and at that point, it becomes a subjective free-for-all where you can vote for just about anybody. I'm exaggerating, but you could argue for any all-league selection, any DPOY, any multi-season statistical leader, Rasheed Wallace, anybody. As i've stated before, my own personal thing will be to promote the inclusion of every NBA and ABA MVP, with the possible exception of Connie Hawkins and Spencer Haywood.

[Sakay]

...

Considering defense is KG's argument over Malone and KG isn't that far off vs Malone when it comes to overall offense. How do you value Malone's with KG's massive gap in defense?

[THKNKG]

...

Considering defense is KG's argument over Malone and KG isn't that far off vs Malone when it comes to overall offense. How do you value Malone's with KG's massive gap in defense?

That's why I have said from the beginning that box score and accolades are insufficient measures. They are woefully inadequate - useful yes, but only in tandem with a variety of metrics and measures.

People are more multifaceted than a single stat or description can convey, and the same applies with players.

[mdonnelly1989]

VOTE #1. Oscar Robertson


I sometimes feel like Oscar Robertson get's really downplayed because of ERA and Pacing. I'm not saying that is isn't a reason to take him over Magic as I would take Magic of all time but there is a discussion to be had that The Big O was better than Magic during their primes.

At the end of the day we will never truly know how great O was because of such the distance of ERA.

Vote #2. Jerry West

The Logo was considered one of the greatest shooters of his generation, average 25+ and 9 assists during his prime and on all time level defense.

I agree - the Big "O" was about as good a PG as was Magic. (He averaged a triple-double over the first FIVE years of his career.

I also agree about Jerry West - he was the original Curry - virtually unlimited range (if they'd have had the 3-point shot back then!). Back then we all knew about his defensive prowess. He certainly earned his nickname, "Mr Clutch".

Here's a sample from my Reg. Seas. GOAT list. Col. 1 is their Over-All GOAT rank (based on their "Points", in Col 2. Those "Points" are based on their number of selections to ALL-League 1st-Teams, 2nd-Teams, etc. A player gets 5 "Points" for each 1st-Team selection; 3 "Points" for each 2nd-Team selection.

My basic criteria for my GOAT rankings is based on the NUMBER of Great Years each player had. All these guys had at least 10 such Great Years.

..8 ! 55.. ! 3 ! West, Jerry ............ !! 2
..9 ! 54.. ! 2 ! Erving, Julius .......... !! 3
10 ! 51.. ! 1 ! Robertson, Oscar ...... !! 1
11 ! 50.. ! 2 ! Johnson, Magic ......... !! 1

I never thought as highly of Dr. J as Jerry West or Oscar Robertson.

Jerry West and Oscar both seem to be much better playmakers than Dr. J and possibly even better scorers. It's hard to say though because Dr. J played a lot of his prime in the ABA.

I just feel like The Big O and West were flat out better.

[dontcalltimeout]

It remains difficult to convince me that:

A)
This player:
Garnett: 25626pts 14201reb 5306ast 18.6pts 10.3reb 3.9ast .546TS% 22.7PER 191.4WS .185WS/48 9xAllNBA 1xMVP

Is greater than this player:
Mailman: 36928pts 14968reb 5248ast 25.0pts 10.1reb 3.6ast .577TS% 23.9PER 234.6WS .205WS/48 14xAllNBA 2xMVP

VERY difficult. You have to believe in an almost magical level of defense with a fervor rarely seen.

It's not even like KG can cleanly play the playoffs card to make up the gap:

Garnett: 18.2pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .525TS% 21.1PER 16.4WS .149WS/48
Mailman: 24.7pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .526TS% 21.1PER 23.0WS .140WS/48

You can find a stat here or a stat there, but without becoming intentionally myopic you have to really bear down in the face of one of the truly massive careers the NBA has produced. Saying a PF is better than Karl "Mailman" Malone, Dream Teamer, 2nd leading scorer and 7th leading rebounder in NBA history, one half of the most famous pick and roll combination in league history, and a player nearly universally considered the greatest of all time at his position before Tim Duncan, who was half a center anyway, came along....well making that statement should require more than finding this statistical corner or that, especially in the face of a massive productivity gap. Mailman was a very important figure, and would likely have appeared even moreso had he not played in the era of Jordan (for instance 5 times he was the scoring champion runnerup to Jordan, he finished 2nd to him in MVP voting in Jordan's final year, and twice he made the Finals, and lost both times to MJ).

Productivity meaning counting stats that people arbitrarily decided were the most important in the mid-20th century?

And actually, their numbers for rebounding and assists look really similar so we're back to the same argument people love against KG: But what about scoring? Meanwhile, Yes Malone was a great PNR big man and had the good fortune of playing with one of the greatest point guards ever. Malone never had to carry the load of running the offense the way KG did. So when you consider how KG played point forward and was responisble for setting up his team's offense for a larg part of his prime (in a way Malone never did), then Malone's argument on offense is not so clear cut.

Oh, and yes, the difference on defense is that big. Though Malone put up "numbers" well into the late 90s and early 2000s his defense was far from notable and even below average (with the exception of 2004, where he was ok). KG was always a difference maker on defense. Even at Malone's best, we're talking about a difference on the scale of Gobert vs LaMarcus Aldridge.

[Doctor MJ]

It remains difficult to convince me that:

A)
This player:
Garnett: 25626pts 14201reb 5306ast 18.6pts 10.3reb 3.9ast .546TS% 22.7PER 191.4WS .185WS/48 9xAllNBA 1xMVP

Is greater than this player:
Mailman: 36928pts 14968reb 5248ast 25.0pts 10.1reb 3.6ast .577TS% 23.9PER 234.6WS .205WS/48 14xAllNBA 2xMVP

VERY difficult. You have to believe in an almost magical level of defense with a fervor rarely seen.

It's not even like KG can cleanly play the playoffs card to make up the gap:

Garnett: 18.2pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .525TS% 21.1PER 16.4WS .149WS/48
Mailman: 24.7pts 10.7reb 3.2ast .526TS% 21.1PER 23.0WS .140WS/48

You can find a stat here or a stat there, but without becoming intentionally myopic you have to really bear down in the face of one of the truly massive careers the NBA has produced. Saying a PF is better than Karl "Mailman" Malone, Dream Teamer, 2nd leading scorer and 7th leading rebounder in NBA history, one half of the most famous pick and roll combination in league history, and a player nearly universally considered the greatest of all time at his position before Tim Duncan, who was half a center anyway, came along....well making that statement should require more than finding this statistical corner or that, especially in the face of a massive productivity gap. Mailman was a very important figure, and would likely have appeared even moreso had he not played in the era of Jordan (for instance 5 times he was the scoring champion runnerup to Jordan, he finished 2nd to him in MVP voting in Jordan's final year, and twice he made the Finals, and lost both times to MJ).

Hmm, so some things:

1) You're using career totals to argue for Malone at spot #12. If this is how you think of the game, he should be MUCH higher than this.

I'm not even saying it's crazy to think like that. People in baseball take career totals very, very seriously. I won't claim the reasons for that are a mystery, but sufficed to say, there's plenty of precedent for using a career-total. And if you evaluate career favoring longevity to the point that you give no extra weight for prime arc, and view accomplishment largely through production stats, then I certainly expect you to have Malone over Garnett, along with most of the guys already voted in.

2) Magical level of defense. I mean, it's half the game, and Garnett is obviously on a completely different tier from Malone there. It should be no mystery why that would let one somewhat weaker scorer with plenty of other offensive advantages surpass the other guy.

3) Your last paragraph. It's beautifully written, and I mean that sincerely.

But as an argument grounded in nostalgia conjuring romance in an analytical exercise, and an argument that piggy backed off of base level stats more typically discussed in earlier eras, it to me explains our differences in opinions based on you letting certain emotions guide your reasoning more than I do.

I apologize if that's offensive. I could certainly be wrong, and even if I"m right, I don't think it's much of a sin to have basketball in your heart.

[therealbig3]

It's interesting, we also have PI RAPM for 98-00 Malone from acrossthecourt's website, and Malone really doesn't look all that dominant. We also have PI RAPM from 02-03 (Malone's last 2 seasons as the lead guy on a team), from Engelmann.

97 Malone: +4.42 (14th)

98 Malone: +5.31 (8th) - finished behind his own teammate, John Stockton, and ironically, Kevin Garnett as well
99 Malone: +4.58 (16th) - again, finished behind Stockton and Garnett
00 Malone: +4.12 (19th) - finished behind Stockton and Garnett, for the 3rd straight year

01 Malone: +1.78 (53rd)

02 Malone: +0.08 (I don't even know where this ranks)
03 Malone: +0.45 (again, don't know where he ranks)


It kind of supports the whole point about the real value of a volume scoring big with mediocre defense, unless you're Dirk-level.

EDIT: we can also fill in the gaps with 97 NPI RAPM and 01 NPI RAPM

[andrewww]

Hmm, so some things:

1) You're using career totals to argue for Malone at spot #12. If this is how you think of the game, he should be MUCH higher than this.

I'm not even saying it's crazy to think like that. People in baseball take career totals very, very seriously. I won't claim the reasons for that are a mystery, but sufficed to say, there's plenty of precedent for using a career-total. And if you evaluate career favoring longevity to the point that you give no extra weight for prime arc, and view accomplishment largely through production stats, then I certainly expect you to have Malone over Garnett, along with most of the guys already voted in.

2) Magical level of defense. I mean, it's half the game, and Garnett is obviously on a completely different tier from Malone there. It should be no mystery why that would let one somewhat weaker scorer with plenty of other offensive advantages surpass the other guy.

3) Your last paragraph. It's beautifully written, and I mean that sincerely.

But as an argument grounded in nostalgia conjuring romance in an analytical exercise, and an argument that piggy backed off of base level stats more typically discussed in earlier eras, it to me explains our differences in opinions based on you letting certain emotions guide your reasoning more than I do.

I apologize if that's offensive. I could certainly be wrong, and even if I"m right, I don't think it's much of a sin to have basketball in your heart.

I dont think hes just looking at career totals or overall body of work. I think hes doing so within the context of this "next tier" of players.

I also dont think KG is on a "different tier" than Karl Malone on defense. Mailman was no slouch on that end either, and his defense on Duncan in particular in the 2004 WCF even at his advanced age should go a long way in disproving that KG was on a different level.

[therealbig3]

It's very disheartening that people are going so far as to say that now K. Malone and KG are comparable defensively, or aren't that far off. You pretty much have to cover your ears and shut your eyes to everything to convince yourself of that one.

It's just so obvious watching them play, K. Malone is nowhere close to KG defensively. He doesn't cover ground like KG, he doesn't communicate like KG, he doesn't read offenses like KG, he doesn't blow up the PnR like KG, and he doesn't even protect the rim like KG. And all the metrics back that up.

K. Malone and Dirk Nowitzki are on the same tier defensively. KG is a universe above both of them on that side of the court.

[Senior]

I'd have both Dirk and KG above Malone. Malone's career totals surpass basically everyone else's because he played a zillion years at an all-star level, not because he was better than everyone. Credit Malone for having all those years to begin with, but his RS numbers overrated his scoring ability.

Dirk's offensive impact matches Malone's and his scoring doesn't vanish late in games. Malone couldn't do what Dirk in 2011, and the MJ excuse just doesn't fly when the Jazz were already in close Finals to begin with and when there were 17 other years in his career...even if you want to argue that the Jazz only truly became contenders starting in 94 (when they got Hornacek - they were too thin otherwise) the Jazz always seemed to falter in key moments.

Despite KG's scoring tailing off in the playoffs, it's not as if Malone was doing much better on that end (like you could argue for Kobe) and KG's defense was closer to the all-time anchors than he was to Malone. For all the talk about KG's scoring's deficiencies, Malone was experiencing similar drops across his scoring metrics - 28 ppg/59% TS from 88-98 in the RS to 27 ppg on 53% TS compared to KG's 22 ppg/55% TS from 98-08 to 22 ppg/52% TS playoffs. Both guys' scoring was falling off, but KG does more outside of scoring to close the gap. The other stuff Malone does well such as shoot, set screens and pass were some of KG's strengths as well so no separation there. In fact you could even argue that KG is the one with the edge in all three of those departments, and after that Malone's arguments look thin.

I don't really see the defensive edge as close either. Malone was probably around Dirk's level - useful defensive abilities such as physicality, could intimidate people with hard fouls/elbows, excellent individual post defense, always gave consistent effort, good rebounder...but KG outclasses him in basically every possible way on defense. KG was an anchor, Malone wasn't.

I honestly might have Oscar/West above Malone too. Malone's greatest strengths didn't stand up to the tougher defensive environments of the playoffs like Dirk, Oscar, and West's did - and KG had far more versatility to his game.

Oscar was the best floor general until Magic showed up - tremendous BBIQ, elite offenses like every year, and then he came to Milwaukee and blended seamlessly with a championship team. His defense could be kinda spotty but I put that more on the effort required on offense - he was a great man defender because of his intelligence and strength - iirc he demolished Earl Monroe in the 71 Finals. There have been leadership questions with Oscar in his Cincy days - but I've always heard fantastic things about his time with Milwaukee.

West was kind of similar - elite shooter, underrated ballhandler, insane lateral quickness/length making him a great defender, and the Lakers took off with him as the offensive leader. He almost always played well against the best defenses of that era - both the Celtics and 70 Knicks. He lost but was never defeated, if that makes sense.

edit: I thought about Malone vs Dirk on D a little more after reading Purch's post and I think Malone WAS better than Dirk on defense. He never got that no-defense rep to begin with like Dirk did, and he was better at shutting down his individual matchups like 94/96 D-Rob or 04 Tim Duncan. His athleticism allowed him to do things that Dirk really couldn't. I don't really agree with the defensive rating metrics (4 of those 5 years were with Mark Eaton who was a DPOY-level player) and defensive win shares comes from defensive rating as well.

Still, whatever gap there is defensively doesn't make up the offensive one.

[Purch]

I agree that Malone isnt on KG's level defense wise, but on what planet is he on the same tier as Dirk defensively?

He's 6th all time in defensive win shares, and had 11 seasons in the top 10.

He also always was highly rated in defensive rating, and had 5 seasons in the top 10, multiple in the top 5. Dirk has none of that.

Dirk in no way had that kind of production defensivy. To act like KG vs Malone on defense is the same as KG vs Dirk is just asinine.

Malone for most of his career was a very good defender.

[Dr Positivity]

Malone's efficiency drop in playoffs is a concern. Out of his 19 playoff appearances, he had .537 TS or lower for 15 of them. His career TS in regular season is .577 and in playoffs is .526. In comparison KG who's playoff shooting % is an issue, dropped from .546 to .525 from regular season to playoff career. Since KG relies more on defense, spacing and passing than Malone, a drop in shooting % is not as important to his value. When Malone is having inefficient scoring seasons in the playoffs however it's likely to make a significant dent in his value, especially earlier in his career when he is a worse passer and lacks shooting range.

Perhaps this is unfair to Malone, but as an analogy, Kyle Lowry is a PG who plays harder than everyone in the regular season and has transformed himself from defensive guard in Houston to All-NBA offensive player in Toronto. In the playoffs however that he lacks the obvious star talents such as Kyrie's ballhandling and shotmaking skill, or Paul George's height and shooting ability seems to destroy him. Instead of a playoff performer, maybe it's more accurate to say he's a regular season overperformer who falls back to earth in the playoffs (The answer, as is the case with most things, is probably somewhere in the middle)

Malone is obviously a very talented player and you don't win 2 MVPs without it, but destroying teams on regular season effort level and physicality and the Jazz showing up every night, is not necessarily the same as being the best player in a playoff setting. That he wasn't as effective in the playoffs could be because some of his advantages in the regular season may have worn off.

[Doctor MJ]

Hmm, so some things:

1) You're using career totals to argue for Malone at spot #12. If this is how you think of the game, he should be MUCH higher than this.

I'm not even saying it's crazy to think like that. People in baseball take career totals very, very seriously. I won't claim the reasons for that are a mystery, but sufficed to say, there's plenty of precedent for using a career-total. And if you evaluate career favoring longevity to the point that you give no extra weight for prime arc, and view accomplishment largely through production stats, then I certainly expect you to have Malone over Garnett, along with most of the guys already voted in.

2) Magical level of defense. I mean, it's half the game, and Garnett is obviously on a completely different tier from Malone there. It should be no mystery why that would let one somewhat weaker scorer with plenty of other offensive advantages surpass the other guy.

3) Your last paragraph. It's beautifully written, and I mean that sincerely.

But as an argument grounded in nostalgia conjuring romance in an analytical exercise, and an argument that piggy backed off of base level stats more typically discussed in earlier eras, it to me explains our differences in opinions based on you letting certain emotions guide your reasoning more than I do.

I apologize if that's offensive. I could certainly be wrong, and even if I"m right, I don't think it's much of a sin to have basketball in your heart.

I dont think hes just looking at career totals or overall body of work. I think hes doing so within the context of this "next tier" of players.

I also dont think KG is on a "different tier" than Karl Malone on defense. Mailman was no slouch on that end either, and his defense on Duncan in particular in the 2004 WCF even at his advanced age should go a long way in disproving that KG was on a different level.

Using tiers in a ranking scheme is a first-pass method only. If it a defense of an argument relies on the assumption that it can be ignored with a wave of the hand, it implicitly damns the argument it seeks to defend.

Re: defender. I mean, KG was the most effective defender in the league for a number of years, Malone was not. Do you disagree with this consensus agreement entirely? If so, speak to that.


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