The Zach Lavine Problem

[Red Larrivee]

Jimmy's supieror ability to get to the line and his defense could really be a big difference. Though the latter would explain more of the over all team impact stats on/off court.

Yeah, that's pretty much the difference. Butler is a special case of a roleplayer who retained his defense and toughness while developing all-star offensive ability. Meanwhile, LaVine has always been a ballhandler, shooter and scorer. Butler didn't figure it out until age 25; LaVine is 22. I don't think LaVine will be as good, but it's still very possible LaVine can improve significantly.

Whether or not he's the best player on a really good team is meaningless right now.

[Just_Bullz]

2 way players are rare and even as good as butler is, the situation in chicago wasnt helping him.

Getting Zach is not a direct replacement for butler, hes just one of the pieces to fit the puzzle that will take a few seasons to complete. Our butler maybe in the next draft etc.

Many are having a mismatch in expectation of lavine. Its a zach vs jimmy scenario

[sco]

Yeah Zach isn't Jimmy.

Jimmy is a top 20 guy.

Hoping Zach can be a top 40 guy next year.

[AirP.]

Lavine can already shoot the ball better than Jimmy could ever dream of. Claiming that he is another Rose and relies and completely on athleticism is BS. Yes his athleticism allow him to get some easy baskets, but he is already MUCH more skilled than you are giving him credit for.

What? Had Rose not had his complications he'd still be a top player. Players who rely on athletic ability tend to disappear or their production drops greatly early in their 30s unless they adapt by usually going towards a more strength/outside shooting game. Hence 3s moving towards being 4s late in their career.

It's interesting, unless I say of course LaVine will be a top player in the NBA it's not going to be good enough. I've already mentioned he probably will be a borderline all-star(which means I expect at least 1 all-star game) yet that's not good enough now that he's with the Chicago Bulls.

Lavine is much better than shooter than Rose ever was at any point in career and should only improve in that area. That by itself extends his usefulness pass the age where his athleticism would dip. He is doesn't rely on his athleticism. That is whole point. Just because he is a flashy dunker doesn't mean that is all there is to his game. People act this guy is finished product when he has improved every year. I think he will be multiple all-star if healthy. He does't have much competition in the East outside of Derozan at SG.

Being effective doesn't negate a drop in production.

He should be improving, he's only 22. Maybe one day he'll even be an average defender.

I think he'll end up being an all-star at some point but since I think his production will drop in his early 30s more then Butler's will(since his game is more strength based) I guess that's seen as saying he's trash?

I like LaVine, I'm ok with the trade for both sides. I guess I'm sorry thinking LaVine has about 10 good/great years left in him instead of 13-15.

[WindyCityBorn]

What? Had Rose not had his complications he'd still be a top player. Players who rely on athletic ability tend to disappear or their production drops greatly early in their 30s unless they adapt by usually going towards a more strength/outside shooting game. Hence 3s moving towards being 4s late in their career.

It's interesting, unless I say of course LaVine will be a top player in the NBA it's not going to be good enough. I've already mentioned he probably will be a borderline all-star(which means I expect at least 1 all-star game) yet that's not good enough now that he's with the Chicago Bulls.

Lavine is much better than shooter than Rose ever was at any point in career and should only improve in that area. That by itself extends his usefulness pass the age where his athleticism would dip. He is doesn't rely on his athleticism. That is whole point. Just because he is a flashy dunker doesn't mean that is all there is to his game. People act this guy is finished product when he has improved every year. I think he will be multiple all-star if healthy. He does't have much competition in the East outside of Derozan at SG.

Being effective doesn't negate a drop in production.

He should be improving, he's only 22. Maybe one day he'll even be an average defender.

I think he'll end up being an all-star at some point but since I think his production will drop in his early 30s more then Butler's will(since his game is more strength based) I guess that's seen as saying he's trash?

I like LaVine, I'm ok with the trade for both sides. I guess I'm sorry thinking LaVine has about 10 good/great years left in him instead of 13-15.

You said 7 to 9 years at first. 32 is seems like fairer estimate. And Butler misses quite a few games each year. He is wearing down already. Wasn't injury used as an excuse for his poor performance against Boston in the playoffs?

[AirP.]

Lavine is much better than shooter than Rose ever was at any point in career and should only improve in that area. That by itself extends his usefulness pass the age where his athleticism would dip. He is doesn't rely on his athleticism. That is whole point. Just because he is a flashy dunker doesn't mean that is all there is to his game. People act this guy is finished product when he has improved every year. I think he will be multiple all-star if healthy. He does't have much competition in the East outside of Derozan at SG.

Being effective doesn't negate a drop in production.

He should be improving, he's only 22. Maybe one day he'll even be an average defender.

I think he'll end up being an all-star at some point but since I think his production will drop in his early 30s more then Butler's will(since his game is more strength based) I guess that's seen as saying he's trash?

I like LaVine, I'm ok with the trade for both sides. I guess I'm sorry thinking LaVine has about 10 good/great years left in him instead of 13-15.

You said 7 to 9 years at first. 32 is seems like fairer estimate. And Butler misses quite a few games each year. He is wearing down already. Wasn't injury used as an excuse for his poor performance against Boston in the playoffs?

1 year is that big of a difference? 9 years would be just wrong and horrible, 10... fair. 1 year is that big of a thing on projecting someone's potential?

Butler missing games, it happens especially as you get older. Hard to believe someone on their rookie contract isn't missing many games. If it were a chronic issue on a certain part of his body I could understand but it's not. Last year Butler seemed to be doing well till you know... losing the only decent PG on the team allowing the defense to concentrate more on him.

It is interesting how the view of a player vastly changes when he's no longer on a fan's teams or finally a new player joins a fan's team.

[Hangtime84]

Being effective doesn't negate a drop in production.

He should be improving, he's only 22. Maybe one day he'll even be an average defender.

I think he'll end up being an all-star at some point but since I think his production will drop in his early 30s more then Butler's will(since his game is more strength based) I guess that's seen as saying he's trash?

I like LaVine, I'm ok with the trade for both sides. I guess I'm sorry thinking LaVine has about 10 good/great years left in him instead of 13-15.

You said 7 to 9 years at first. 32 is seems like fairer estimate. And Butler misses quite a few games each year. He is wearing down already. Wasn't injury used as an excuse for his poor performance against Boston in the playoffs?

1 year is that big of a difference? 9 years would be just wrong and horrible, 10... fair. 1 year is that big of a thing on projecting someone's potential?

Butler missing games, it happens especially as you get older. Hard to believe someone on their rookie contract isn't missing many games. If it were a chronic issue on a certain part of his body I could understand but it's not. Last year Butler seemed to be doing well till you know... losing the only decent PG on the team allowing the defense to concentrate more on him.

It is interesting how the view of a player vastly changes when he's no longer on a fan's teams or finally a new player joins a fan's team.

He is right tho Bulter did have injury as excuse for his poor performance in the playoffs. We played boston earlier in the season and Bulter was just fine. He started to wear down in about 40 games in to season. (Hard when the rest of the team kinda sucks)

[AirP.]

He is right tho Bulter did have injury as excuse for his poor performance in the playoffs. We played boston earlier in the season and Bulter was just fine. He started to wear down in about 40 games in to season. (Hard when the rest of the team kinda sucks)

Yeah, probably had NOTHING to do with Rondo going down and having to vastly change the offense/defense because of that. The 2 games in the playoffs with Rondo... great games by Butler.

Wear down after the first 40 games? He averaged more minutes a game after the all-star game(that's after his first 51 games which would mean he should have been more tired). His TS% stayed around the same but his off/def per 100 possessions actually went up from +15 to +17. He played nearly averaged after the all-star game 38 minutes a night, 23 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists while shooting 46% FG% and 44% from 3pt range.

But yeah... he was worn out for the playoffs going against the #1 seed, for the playoffs he averaged 40 minutes, 23 points, 7 rebs, 4 ast shooting 43% from the field for 6 games.

[Hangtime84]

He is right tho Bulter did have injury as excuse for his poor performance in the playoffs. We played boston earlier in the season and Bulter was just fine. He started to wear down in about 40 games in to season. (Hard when the rest of the team kinda sucks)

Yeah, probably had NOTHING to do with Rondo going down and having to vastly change the offense/defense because of that. The 2 games in the playoffs with Rondo... great games by Butler.

Wear down after the first 40 games? He averaged more minutes a game after the all-star game(that's after his first 51 games which would mean he should have been more tired). His TS% stayed around the same but his off/def per 100 possessions actually went up from +15 to +17. He played nearly averaged after the all-star game 38 minutes a night, 23 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists while shooting 46% FG% and 44% from 3pt range.

But yeah... he was worn out for the playoffs going against the #1 seed, for the playoffs he averaged 40 minutes, 23 points, 7 rebs, 4 ast shooting 43% from the field for 6 games.

He totally changed his style at that point moving from going full speed 4 quarters to setting guys up and taking his shots a lot smarter. A lot of that has to due to becoming a smarter player. But types of plays and energy he brought when attacked the rim was different.

He was still playing bully ball but he the first half of the season he was much more a bull (pun attended). All i'm saying he dropped whatever "his extra gear is" and paced himself. It showed in the playoffs when he couldn't will his team to 1 win after Rondo went down.

I'm not anti Jimmy btw i'm just saying what i noticed. Bulls didn't give him enough help.

[AirP.]

He totally changed his style at that point moving from going full speed 4 quarters to setting guys up and taking his shots a lot smarter. A lot of that has to due to becoming a smarter player. But types of plays and energy he brought when attacked the rim was different.

He was still playing bully ball but he the first half of the season he was much more a bull (pun attended). All i'm saying he dropped whatever "his extra gear is" and paced himself. It showed in the playoffs when he couldn't will his team to 1 win after Rondo went down.

I'm not anti Jimmy btw i'm just saying what i noticed. Bulls didn't give him enough help.

Yes, his role changed some as the lineup was always in flux.

It's incredible... Butler couldn't WILL his #8 seed team to win against the #1 seed then toss in after one of the few quality players in the rotation left with an injury. Poor LA being stuck with that Kobe guy, they had a 3 year stretch where Kobe couldn't WILL his team to the playoffs and then the other 2 years he couldn't WILL his team past the first round. Good lord.

[PharmD]

Is there a good website to access each team's plus minus stats?

82Games or NBA.com among others.

Minny actually outscored their opponents when Zach didn't play last year.

That was also true 2 years ago. Not good.

What Minny apparently learned is Zach needed to have the ball less not more.

That's misleading. Zach was a raaaaaaaw 19 year old rookie with elite tools and not much clue how to play. The plan was for him to spend his rookie year in the DLeague and, in fact, he didn't play at all the first 4 games of the season. But then, in the 5th game, Ricky Rubio suffered an almost season ending injury. Mo Williams was the only other point guard and was too old for heavy minutes so Flip just decided it was tank time and began starting Zach. Trial by fire. Of course he was terrible, maybe literally the worst player in the NBA. He was obviously playing out of position but he was getting lots of development reps and the wolves were losing like crazy (Karl Anthony Towns) so it was a good plan.

That offseason Flip and Zach both went on record saying that he was a shooting guard. Things were gonna be good as he's so obviously a shooting guard. But Flip died and Sam Mitchell took over. Now Sam also knew that Zach was better as a 2, but the Wolves only had Rubio and Andre Miller at point and Miller was finally totally cooked (the wolves were not active in free agency as their GM spent the offseason unconscious in the hospital, dying of cancer). Sam knew that he had to win to keep his job so he wasn't gonna play Miller. So Zach was once again pressed into duty as a point guard, this time a backup. And again, it wasn't pretty. At the all-star break Zach was finally moved to shooting guard and he flourished, as everyone with eyes knew he would (Sam Mitchell excluded).

This last season he was finally playing the 2 and he was awesome. So yes, he had the ball in his hand less. And the Wolves got off to a horrible 6-18 start because Thibs decided that he wanted Wiggins to be the primary creator (which he's awful at) and wanted Rubio to stand in the corner spacing the floor (which he's gawd awful at). Thibs was essentially playing to everyone's weaknesses for reasons i will never understand. Interestingly, things changed on December 13th vs the Bulls. The wolves were down 22 points in the first half. Thibs wanted to beat the bulls badly enough that he finally let Ricky do his thing. The wolves dominated from that moment on and cruised to victory. The Wolves went 22-20 over the next couple of months before correctly tanking away down the stretch. "The Wolves were better with Zach off the court" because Zach got hurt fairly early in the season, and played a much higher percentage of his minutes in the Point Wiggins era.

[Rerisen]

^

Zach ON, Wiggins OFF: Team 103.0 PPP | Opponent 107.4 PPP = -4.4

Wiggins ON, Lavine OFF: Team 111.4 PPP | Opponent 110.6 PPP = +0.8

Wiggins having the ball hurting Zach doesn't hold up in the numbers, if anything the opposite.

[WindyCityBorn]

That's fine unless he ends up our best player out of the Butler trade/rebuild, which case the team would likely be trapped in an NBA hell worse than what initiated the trade in the first place.

Here's hoping they draft a couple of players that will be better than that.

Lavine is just a piece. If the front office doesn't draft a true franchise player with the lottery picks we are about to start collecting then that's on them. I have never said that Lavine is a franchise player. I have said he has the talent to be the #2 or #3 scoring option. Bulls still need to find those other 2 pieces. Maybe Markannen is one, maybe not. It's too early to worry about that. It will be a long process unless we luck up and draft the next Lebron or Durant in 2018.

[tedwilliams1999]

^

Zach ON, Wiggins OFF: Team 103.0 PPP | Opponent 107.4 PPP = -4.4

Wiggins ON, Lavine OFF: Team 111.4 PPP | Opponent 110.6 PPP = +0.8

Wiggins having the ball hurting Zach doesn't hold up in the numbers, if anything the opposite.

I don't trust these numbers at all though. The Wolves were a terrible team in the first half of the season, and then they got it together for the last several months - much like Thibs' Bulls teams in the past. If you have seen enough film to tell me that LaVine was the sole reason the Wolves sucked for the first 3 months of the season, then I'll believe you. Until then, I'm not buying these advanced stats at all. Especially when there are plenty of Wolves' fans telling me they'd rather have gotten rid of Wiggins. I'm waiting till I see Zach with my own eyes, in a Bulls' uniform, before I have a solid opinion on whether he's a Rudy Gay type player, or if he has potential to be better.

There's certainly a very real chance that LaVine was just too much of a net negative chucker when in the line up with Wiggins and Towns. Or there are literally dozens other reasons that can explain those on-off numbers. What if he played primarily with the bench unit? What if benching LaVine allowed Wiggins to play at the SG position, where he tends to excel? What if benching LaVine and inserting Shabazz next to Wiggins improves the overall team defense? What If the Wolves just meshed better in the 2nd half of the season, after getting used to Thibs' system? What if LaVine's presence would have made them a better a team in the 2nd half of the season? Etc, etc, etc.

I understand the pessimism, because Jimmy was amazing and we should've at least attempted to build a team around him last season, instead of signing Wade and Rondo. But I'm not going to form any type of negative opinion on LaVine, especially without seeing him in our own offensive system.

[Hangtime84]

^

Zach ON, Wiggins OFF: Team 103.0 PPP | Opponent 107.4 PPP = -4.4

Wiggins ON, Lavine OFF: Team 111.4 PPP | Opponent 110.6 PPP = +0.8

Wiggins having the ball hurting Zach doesn't hold up in the numbers, if anything the opposite.

Rerisen I've watched wolves games and talked with many wolves fans. This is one of those things advance stats suck without context moments.

Lavine was their best shooter out of main scorers and made argument was who should be the SG Wiggins or Lavine. Many saw Lavine rising up over Wiggins as the better offensive player.

[Stratmaster]

Is there a good website to access each team's plus minus stats?

82Games or NBA.com among others.

Minny actually outscored their opponents when Zach didn't play last year.

That was also true 2 years ago. Not good.

What Minny apparently learned is Zach needed to have the ball less not more.

That's misleading. Zach was a raaaaaaaw 19 year old rookie with elite tools and not much clue how to play. The plan was for him to spend his rookie year in the DLeague and, in fact, he didn't play at all the first 4 games of the season. But then, in the 5th game, Ricky Rubio suffered an almost season ending injury. Mo Williams was the only other point guard and was too old for heavy minutes so Flip just decided it was tank time and began starting Zach. Trial by fire. Of course he was terrible, maybe literally the worst player in the NBA. He was obviously playing out of position but he was getting lots of development reps and the wolves were losing like crazy (Karl Anthony Towns) so it was a good plan.

That offseason Flip and Zach both went on record saying that he was a shooting guard. Things were gonna be good as he's so obviously a shooting guard. But Flip died and Sam Mitchell took over. Now Sam also knew that Zach was better as a 2, but the Wolves only had Rubio and Andre Miller at point and Miller was finally totally cooked (the wolves were not active in free agency as their GM spent the offseason unconscious in the hospital, dying of cancer). Sam knew that he had to win to keep his job so he wasn't gonna play Miller. So Zach was once again pressed into duty as a point guard, this time a backup. And again, it wasn't pretty. At the all-star break Zach was finally moved to shooting guard and he flourished, as everyone with eyes knew he would (Sam Mitchell excluded).

This last season he was finally playing the 2 and he was awesome. So yes, he had the ball in his hand less. And the Wolves got off to a horrible 6-18 start because Thibs decided that he wanted Wiggins to be the primary creator (which he's awful at) and wanted Rubio to stand in the corner spacing the floor (which he's gawd awful at). Thibs was essentially playing to everyone's weaknesses for reasons i will never understand. Interestingly, things changed on December 13th vs the Bulls. The wolves were down 22 points in the first half. Thibs wanted to beat the bulls badly enough that he finally let Ricky do his thing. The wolves dominated from that moment on and cruised to victory. The Wolves went 22-20 over the next couple of months before correctly tanking away down the stretch. "The Wolves were better with Zach off the court" because Zach got hurt fairly early in the season, and played a much higher percentage of his minutes in the Point Wiggins era.

You're never going to convince guys who live and die wtth advanced stats that there are any circumstances which can't be explained wth their numbers. He could have been 6'0" with his coach playing him at center.

Sent from my SM-G920V using RealGM mobile app

[Stratmaster]

^

Zach ON, Wiggins OFF: Team 103.0 PPP | Opponent 107.4 PPP = -4.4

Wiggins ON, Lavine OFF: Team 111.4 PPP | Opponent 110.6 PPP = +0.8

Wiggins having the ball hurting Zach doesn't hold up in the numbers, if anything the opposite.

Who was playing beside Wiggins when lavine was of the court? How did Lavine's numbers look playing next to that same player? Better or worse?

Sent from my SM-G920V using RealGM mobile app

[Stratmaster]

^

Zach ON, Wiggins OFF: Team 103.0 PPP | Opponent 107.4 PPP = -4.4

Wiggins ON, Lavine OFF: Team 111.4 PPP | Opponent 110.6 PPP = +0.8

Wiggins having the ball hurting Zach doesn't hold up in the numbers, if anything the opposite.

I don't trust these numbers at all though. The Wolves were a terrible team in the first half of the season, and then they got it together for the last several months - much like Thibs' Bulls teams in the past. If you have seen enough film to tell me that LaVine was the sole reason the Wolves sucked for the first 3 months of the season, then I'll believe you. Until then, I'm not buying these advanced stats at all. Especially when there are plenty of Wolves' fans telling me they'd rather have gotten rid of Wiggins. I'm waiting till I see Zach with my own eyes, in a Bulls' uniform, before I have a solid opinion on whether he's a Rudy Gay type player, or if he has potential to be better.

There's certainly a very real chance that LaVine was just too much of a net negative chucker when in the line up with Wiggins and Towns. Or there are literally dozens other reasons that can explain those on-off numbers. What if he played primarily with the bench unit? What if benching LaVine allowed Wiggins to play at the SG position, where he tends to excel? What if benching LaVine and inserting Shabazz next to Wiggins improves the overall team defense? What If the Wolves just meshed better in the 2nd half of the season, after getting used to Thibs' system? What if LaVine's presence would have made them a better a team in the 2nd half of the season? Etc, etc, etc.

I understand the pessimism, because Jimmy was amazing and we should've at least attempted to build a team around him last season, instead of signing Wade and Rondo. But I'm not going to form any type of negative opinion on LaVine, especially without seeing him in our own offensive system.

Cue the RAPM stats... in 3.... 2...

Sent from my SM-G920V using RealGM mobile app

[FecesOfDeath]

What? Had Rose not had his complications he'd still be a top player. Players who rely on athletic ability tend to disappear or their production drops greatly early in their 30s unless they adapt by usually going towards a more strength/outside shooting game. Hence 3s moving towards being 4s late in their career.

It's interesting, unless I say of course LaVine will be a top player in the NBA it's not going to be good enough. I've already mentioned he probably will be a borderline all-star(which means I expect at least 1 all-star game) yet that's not good enough now that he's with the Chicago Bulls.

Lavine is much better than shooter than Rose ever was at any point in career and should only improve in that area. That by itself extends his usefulness pass the age where his athleticism would dip. He is doesn't rely on his athleticism. That is whole point. Just because he is a flashy dunker doesn't mean that is all there is to his game. People act this guy is finished product when he has improved every year. I think he will be multiple all-star if healthy. He does't have much competition in the East outside of Derozan at SG.

Being effective doesn't negate a drop in production.

He should be improving, he's only 22. Maybe one day he'll even be an average defender.

I think he'll end up being an all-star at some point but since I think his production will drop in his early 30s more then Butler's will(since his game is more strength based) I guess that's seen as saying he's trash?

I like LaVine, I'm ok with the trade for both sides. I guess I'm sorry thinking LaVine has about 10 good/great years left in him instead of 13-15.

Seeing how Jimmy performed with a slightly bummed knee in the playoffs is a good indicator of how he will perform in his 30s, which is ugly. And that was while he was guarded primarily by a 6'2" guard.

[TankOverlord]

Lavine may never be a top 20 player, but he still has tremendous upside. Star potential.

Jimmy has only downside. We've already seen his best and it's not good enough. As our lead dog, he lead us to no playoffs and the 8th seed.

Not a #1 option, declining D as his offensive game improved, injuries, and last but not least, questionable leadership/ability to play nice with others.

Swapping them and paying Lavine half the money is a coup for the FO.