RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #15

[Dr Positivity]

Thoughts on West, Dirk, Erving, Moses from last thread:

Spoiler:

Jerry West - Case for: Good argument for being offensive player left based on playing a more offensive position than players like Barkley and Dirk, elite efficiency for his era, good passer, floor spacer. Great accolades defensively. Great intangibles. Elite playoff and Finals cred. Case against: Less longevity than others when considering lack of post prime years and missing the playoffs in one of them (74). Regular season injures including miss 67 playoffs.

Dirk Nowitzki - Case for: Excellent RAPM career making him a peer of players like Kobe and Garnett, while other candidates have absence of +/- information. Strong longevity considering post prime Dirk still makes impact due to floor spacing and arguably can still be 2nd best player on a title in years like 2012-2016. Great intangibles. Style of offensive game may help his team's defense. Pretty good playoff performer on the whole, a few lows but some terrific highs as well. Highly skilled offensive game appears to translate against playoff defenses. Case against: Non elite defensive anchor, rebounder or passer. Offense first player but plays less of an offensive position/more of a defensive position than other options here. Less physical force of will than other candidates.

Julius Erving - Case for: One of the GOAT peak seasons in 76 when considering his playoff/Finals performance. A high value defender compared to other candidates here considering he plays more of a defensive position than West while appears to have been better on D than some players like Barkley, Dirk and Moses. Beloved teammate. Excellent longevity considering he still adds a lot of value from 83-87. Case against: Average floor spacing wing. Portability questions in late 70s and with McGinnis. For his boxscore defensive stats does not do too great on All-Defense teams. May have been less dominant in NBA than ABA because of less transition play.

Moses Malone - Case for: Cred of people watching him in time as 3x MVP and won MVPs when his team wasn't even that dominant. Stepped up in playoffs to defeat Kareem. Long career with many all-star level seasons. Makes a few all-defensive teams. Appears to have been a good defender with Sixers when he got to save energy more. Made 1st team All-D in 83 and 2nd in 79. If a good defender in 83 as C is most defensive position this could put his defensive peak in value up there with candidates like Karl Malone, Erving and West. Case against: Non floor spacer and passer. "Building an offense around him" is less easy when he's not as much of a facilitator either through passing or spacing like Dirk. Houston DRTGs record is very concerning with him manning the middle. While having long overall longevity, the meat of his career is 8 seasons in 79-86 which is a little on the light side for a prime.

For me the pick is between Erving and Dirk as I am concerned about playoffs and RAPM for Karl Malone and West's heatlh/longevity makes it hard to pick him over Erving/Dirk. Moses in 83 is potentially on this level, but the Rockets version I am too concerned about his defense for a C and as an offensive player, a C who plays near the rim and doesn't pass often just doesn't fit with what appears to be the highest impact offensive players in RAPM/RPM. Erving's peak looks higher than Dirk's from my vantage point so I'll go with him

David Robinson:

Case for: Value of ATG defensive anchor when building a team. ATG defender at the best defensive position in C already gives him high baseline of value. Outstanding fit with other star players since he can make an impact defensively before ever touching it and then has a game that fits well with them with a midrange, ability to attack basket without dominating ball, passing and fits great with them personality wise. Arguably one of the greatest regular season peaks when considering stats, non boxscore impact and lifting mediocre team. Has a better case for best player on champion status than advertised in 99 based on WS, BPM, RAPM. Matchup against Hakeem heavily influenced by Rockets elite spacing punishing opponents for doubling, Robinson was not as fortunate. Case against: Mediocre longevity as a superstar with injury after 7th season. Drops in playoff shooting and outplayed by other star on occasions. Plays an Anthony Davis and Toronto Chris Bosh-esque face up style of game, is this as easy a style of offense to build a champion around as the isolation skill of a Dirk?

Even if all else was equal I vote against Robinson vs players like Dirk and Erving based on longevity.

Vote: Julius Erving

2nd: Dirk Nowitzki

[Joao Saraiva]

Interesting that Malone jumps over Dirk, Julius and West here, especially Dirk as he's still playing.

Just for comparison:

2017 -
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone

2014:
11. Kevin Garnett
12. Oscar Robertson
13. Kobe Bryant
14. Julius Erving
15. Jerry West
16. Dirk Nowitzki
17. Karl Malone

Diferent voters, that's all. This is a zone where a ton of rankings can be justified, so it's natural it changes with the voters.

I'm personally glad it changed, since I have Kobe above KG, and Karl Malone above all except Kobe in that group (including Kevin Garnett.

I've been lower on Malone, but since putting it into numbers I'm more convinced about his case. Still think Malone vs Dirk is still a good debate.

[scrabbarista]

15. Julius Erving

16. Moses Malone

I. Julius Erving is second to Bob Pettit in my MVP voting metric, which weighs Top 5 MVP Voting finishes on a 1-5 scale.

II. Even with a 30% penalty for his ABA numbers, Erving is 12th all-time in postseason points, rebounds, blocks, steals, and assists. He finishes above Hakeem Olajuwon and Oscar Robertson as well as with over 38% more than Kevin Garnett (6800 to 4900 - that's with a 30% penalty for ABA totals).

III. Significant parts of Erving's case come from his time in the ABA, which I penalize pretty heavily (I think I have the penalty at minus 30% for most accomplishments). Even with that penalty, his numbers are impressive, as is the fact that he was the best player on two championship teams while in his prime (also penalized at 30%). The only players left who have that on their resumes are Mikan, Isiah Thomas, and Dave Cowens, none of whom I would personally consider this high, meaning he is unique among players in consideration.


Also for consideration in the bolstering of Erving's case: (the following is a direct quote from RGMer Pablo Novi)

"1. THE ABA OUTPLAYED THE NBA IN THEIR MANY EXHIBITION GAMES, MORE SO EACH YEAR. Exhibition games seldom mean much; but back then, they meant more than they ever did at any other time. Why? Because so very much was at stake. Was the NBA really the dominant League (as they had been during the ABA's earliest years)? Had the upstart ABA caught up? The ABA "beat up" on the NBA in those later exhibition years to gain an over-all Dual-League period advantage (despite starting off losing decidedly more games in the earliest years).

2. EX-ABA SUPER-STARS GOT THEIR FAIR SHARE OF ALL-NBA 1st-Team & 2nd-Team honors.

3. Three of the four ex-ABA teams held their own in the NBA; with the fourth, the Nets having been raped (along with the remaining ABA teams that weren't allowed in thru the merger).

These three things tell me that the two Leagues, particularly their super-stars, were about equal during Dr J's ABA years.

So "equal" that I wouldn't deduct 5% from Dr J's ABA totals in any category - I basically treat them, like Basketball-Reference does - as stats equal to NBA stats.

I got to see a couple of ABA games - in that direct eye test, the level looked darned close to what I was seeing on TV with the NBA games."

[trex_8063]

Fwiw, I'm working on a study of the correlation between rOREB% and rORTG/rDRTG, because it pertains to both Moses Malone as well as Dirk (and a criticism he's sustained). Might not have enough data in the series until the #16 Thead, but I'll share when I have enough it.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Fwiw, I'm working on a study of the correlation between rOREB% and rORTG/rDRTG, because it pertains to both Moses Malone as well as Dirk (and a criticism he's sustained). Might not have enough data in the series until the #16 Thead, but I'll share when I have enough it.

However that correlation turns out in general, one of the interesting things about Moses that is rarely fully explored is his famous tactic of intentionally missing shots off the backboard and then using his big wide body and timing to repeatedly offensive tap tap tap until he got the shot to go in. Best in the history of the NBA at that tactic.

But if you break that down, in essence it should introduce 2 distortions in his stats: 1) his effective FG% was actually higher than the numbers show; 2) his offensive rebounding numbers are inflated.

In essence the entire sequence of :

1) miss FG off backboard
2) grab o-reb
3) miss FG off backboard
4) grab o-reb
5) hit FG

was essentially for Moses nothing more than:

1) hit FG

It was premeditated, a way to guarantee himself a FG at the end of the play. And also a reason for his high FT rate as guys futiley tried to come over his back and keep him from his own little layup drill.

[Outside]

Vote: Jerry West
Alternate: Moses Malone

I'm not sure what else to say about West. We don't have advanced metrics for that era, but if we did, I have no doubt that West would shine even brighter.

He shot 47.4% from the field despite playing in a low-percentage era and shooting a significant number of shots from the perimeter. He had excellent range. Despite being a guard, he was a very good rebounder, particularly early in his career, averaging anywhere from 5.8 to 7.9 rebounds per game in his first eight seasons. While his rebounds tailed off later in his career, his assists rose to the point he was among the league leaders several years.

During the Lakers' 1971-72 championship season, West led the league with 9.7 assists per game while also seventh in the league in scoring at 25.8 points per game. This is on a team that held the record for wins in a season until the Jordan Bulls and still holds the record with 33 consecutive wins.

Then there's the playoffs. West was an excellent playoff performer, consistently raising his game in the postseason. He is third all time in playoff points per game at 29.1, trailing only Jordan and Iverson (and Iverson had only 71 playoff games and reached the finals only once, while West had 153 playoff games and reached the finals nine times). He scored 40.6 points per game in the 1964-65 playoffs, second only to Jordan, but Jordan did that in only three games while being swept in the first round by the Celtics, and West did it for 11 games for a team that went to the finals.

And he was an excellent defender. I'd point to his stats for steals, blocks, DRtg, and the like, but we don't have any. B-R attempts to assign DWS for this era, but it's based on team performance only since individual defensive stats are unavailable. The All-Defensive team was introduced in 1968-69, and West was named to the All-Defensive team five of his last six seasons (1st team four times, 2nd team once), only missing his last season when he played only 31 games.

His negatives compared to other players:

-- Longevity. I'll counter this by saying that 14 seasons was a lengthy career for his era when players had to play four years of college before entering the NBA, played long minutes and grueling schedules (four games in four nights was not uncommon), and didn't have the training methods and medical care available to current players. Overall he is 59th in RS minutes played at 36,571. However, he is higher for the PS -- 37th in games (153) and 21st in minutes played (6,321), despite having fewer rounds to accumulate those totals.

-- No MVPs. He could've won (and probably should have) but came in second in MVP voting four times. He was third another year and fifth three times. He was All-NBA 12 of his 14 seasons, including first team 10 times.

West was a complete player and a great player. Mr. Clutch. The Logo. I've argued that it's reasonable to shift players up and down within a particular tier, and that's true for the group of players who will follow, but West is above that group.

[ardee]

It's between West and Dirk for me, can anyone present a case for one over the other?

[Narigo]

Vote: David Robinson
Second Vote: Dirk Nowitzki

Robinson had a top 10 peak and a great prime. Arguably the best player on the 99 Spurs. Looks great in almost every advanced statistic including RAPM. Excellent two way player. Arguably the best defender since Russell

[Winsome Gerbil]

It's between West and Dirk for me, can anyone present a case for one over the other?

Well, Dirk is a fairly rare name in the New World, and really the only famous Dirk's I could think of were like Dirk Minniefield, who I barely remember, and Dirk Benedict, who of course was a gloriously bad actor best known for the silly cheese that was the A-Team and the fun cheese that was Battlestar Galactica (still superior, Cylons who are indistinguishable from humans = bah!).

Jerry, on the other hand, sounds kind of goofy and retro today, like Tom & Jerry, but has produced a lot of famous people like Jerry Lewis, who helped a lot of kids but apparently was a bit of a jerk, and Jerry Springer, who definitely was a jerk, but also of course Jerry Seinfeld, who once had an episode with a gorgeous young Teri Hatcher in it, and Jerry Orbach, who you have to admit was a much better actor than Dirk Benedict, even if he did star in Dirty Dancing.

So in short, while I think this might have been closer if BG had run a few more seasons and Dirk had scored a few more space hunnies, or if they had let him be the one to man the jury rigged cabbage cannon in that A-team episode, despite Jerry Maguire I still think Jerry > Dirk.

[JoeMalburg]

It's between West and Dirk for me, can anyone present a case for one over the other?

Well, Dirk is a fairly rare name in the New World, and really the only famous Dirk's I could think of were like Dirk Minniefield, who I barely remember, and Dirk Benedict, who of course was a gloriously bad actor best known for the silly cheese that was the A-Team and the fun cheese that was Battlestar Galactica (still superior, Cylons who are indistinguishable from humans = bah!).

Jerry, on the other hand, sounds kind of goofy and retro today, like Tom & Jerry, but has produced a lot of famous people like Jerry Lewis, who helped a lot of kids but apparently was a bit of a jerk, and Jerry Springer, who definitely was a jerk, but also of course Jerry Seinfeld, who once had an episode with a gorgeous young Teri Hatcher in it, and Jerry Orbach, who you have to admit was a much better actor than Dirk Benedict, even if he did star in Dirty Dancing.

So in short, while I think this might have been closer if BG had run a few more seasons and Dirk had scored a few more space hunnies, or if they had let him be the one to man the jury rigged cabbage shooter in that A-team episode, despite Jerry Maguire I still think Jerry > Dirk.

Broke that **** down.

[penbeast0]

It's between West and Dirk for me, can anyone present a case for one over the other?

Well, Dirk is a fairly rare name in the New World, and really the only famous Dirk's I could think of were like Dirk Minniefield, who I barely remember, and Dirk Benedict, who of course was a gloriously bad actor best known for the silly cheese that was the A-Team and the fun cheese that was Battlestar Galactica (still superior, Cylons who are indistinguishable from humans = bah!).

Jerry, on the other hand, sounds kind of goofy and retro today, like Tom & Jerry, but has produced a lot of famous people like Jerry Lewis, who helped a lot of kids but apparently was a bit of a jerk, and Jerry Springer, who definitely was a jerk, but also of course Jerry Seinfeld, who once had an episode with a gorgeous young Teri Hatcher in it, and Jerry Orbach, who you have to admit was a much better actor than Dirk Benedict, even if he did star in Dirty Dancing.

So in short, while I think this might have been closer if BG had run a few more seasons and Dirk had scored a few more space hunnies, or if they had let him be the one to man the jury rigged cabbage shooter in that A-team episode, despite Jerry Maguire I still think Jerry > Dirk.

Dirk Diggler? Jerry Reinsdorf?

[mtron929]

Side question: for those of you who put heavy weight into using advanced metrics to rate players, would you be ok, with just using an intuitive empirical formula for ranking future players? That is, one can imagine a best-fit complex formula that would generate rankings that are close as possible to the #1-100 here and then be done with the ranking. That is, you wouldn't even need to do analysis on future prospects (e.g. Towns, Giannis) to see where they fit in the all time ranking as their career stats start to accumulate. You would just plug their numbers into the formula and let the formula do everything.

[mikejames23]

The pre-Duncan 90's Spurs are interesting. Looking back it appears Robinson would get doubled down low (Man, what a time to watch the NBA. Being doubled down low). He generally doesn't seem to have enough on the perimeter to get the offense going, which is interesting. Eye test wise you can tell Hakeem handled this better.

That being said, there appears to really be a case he was the top defender in the post-Russell NBA. If this is true, he would have certainly earned some consideration at this point in the voting.

I don't know how much the series vs Hakeem and some other playoff performances on offense ended up hurting his legacy, otherwise he certainly has some ATG type regular seasons which appear to be at a Top 10 all time-ish level. I think if Karl Malone got somewhat of a pass, you can give something to Robinson.

[Senior]

The pre-Duncan 90's Spurs are interesting. Looking back it appears Robinson would get doubled down low (Man, what a time to watch the NBA. Being doubled down low). He generally doesn't seem to have enough on the perimeter to get the offense going, which is interesting. Eye test wise you can tell Hakeem handled this better.

That being said, there appears to really be a case he was the top defender in the post-Russell NBA. If this is true, he would have certainly earned some consideration at this point in the voting.

I don't know how much the series vs Hakeem and some other playoff performances on offense ended up hurting his legacy, otherwise he certainly has some ATG type regular seasons which appear to be at a Top 10 all time-ish level. I think if Karl Malone got somewhat of a pass, you can give something to Robinson.

To be honest, Karl Malone shouldn't have gotten that pass to begin with. No one really responded to his playoff drops compared to Dirk or West.

Anyway, even though I generally believe D-Rob's offensive metrics to drastically overrate his actual offensive ability (borne out in the playoffs) and I've been low on players whose offense can't stand up in the playoffs, I could actually take him over Malone because of all the other stuff he brings to the table. It's kind of like KG - his scoring tails off, more so than Malone in fact, but D-Rob also provides far superior defense as a legitimate defensive anchor.

The thing is, someone (trex?) posted that the Spurs defenses underperformed a little bit in the playoffs, and even in 1995 they from -2.9 to +0.9 vs Houston - they were -5.3 over the entire playoffs because they destroyed the Lakers and Nuggets. I've brought this up before, but is it possible that D-Rob's defense falls off along with his offense? I could definitely be talked into thinking that.

[Doctor MJ]

Side question: for those of you who put heavy weight into using advanced metrics to rate players, would you be ok, with just using an intuitive empirical formula for ranking future players? That is, one can imagine a best-fit complex formula that would generate rankings that are close as possible to the #1-100 here and then be done with the ranking. That is, you wouldn't even need to do analysis on future prospects (e.g. Towns, Giannis) to see where they fit in the all time ranking as their career stats start to accumulate. You would just plug their numbers into the formula and let the formula do everything.

When you get right down to it, the formula will never be perfect. I'm fine with people developing tools along these lines, but the hardest part to the process is always in honing your ability to go beyond the numbers.

[Narigo]

I know Karl Malone is already in. But his so called bad performaces in the playoffs are a bit exaggerated.

If we look at on/off in the playoffs, we can see that the Jazz offense suffers when Malone is not on the floor.


2001 Malone on/off OTRG(playoffs)
on-court 107.9
off-court 87.8


2002 Malone on/off OTRG(playoffs)
on-court 100.3
off-court 84.2


Even though Malone underperformed both years, we can see that the Jazz played better when Malone was on the floor. But it also shows that Malone did not have a good offensive supporting cast.

[Doctor MJ]

I think if Karl Malone got somewhat of a pass, you can give something to Robinson.

Speaking as someone considerably more impressed with Robinson than Malone, I don't think you should assume that those who will vote for Robinson gave Malone a pass.

[Doctor MJ]

I know Karl Malone is already in. But his so called bad performaces in the playoffs are a bit exaggerated.

If we look at on/off in the playoffs, we can see that the Jazz offense suffers when Malone is not on the floor.


2001 Malone on/off(playoffs)
on-court 107.9
off-court 87.8


2002 Malone on/off(playoffs)
on-court 100.3
off-court 84.2


Even though Malone underperformed both years, we can see that the Jazz played better when Malone was on the floor. But it also shows that Malone did not have a good offensive supporting cast.

They lost in the first round in both cases at a time when it was Best of 5.

You're trying to use a sample size where the Jazz went 3-6 as a way to counteract his entire history. I'd say that's a stretch.

[oldschooled]

This is between Dr. J and Admiral for me. I'm a bit low on Doc's ABA career for obvious reason (competition wise). But i don't want to penalize him for that. Dr. J posted on of the best peaks and championship run in 1976 ABA season. He played great in the regular season and even greater in the postseason.

DRob probably is one of the best regular season performer...EVER (eye test wise/advance stats wise). He had on of the best peak and prime run in the history. Best defender post-Russell era.

Both are also neck and neck in MVP shares all time with Doc at 12th and DRob at 13th.

I think Sir Charles should be getting traction by now also. I'll post more later.

[JoeMalburg]

I think if Karl Malone got somewhat of a pass, you can give something to Robinson.

Speaking as someone considerably more impressed with Robinson than Malone, I don't think you should assume that those who will vote for Robinson gave Malone a pass.

One of the hardest things to weigh in a project like this. Our eyes and our instincts tell us guys like Robinson and even Barkley in my case, are superior players to Karl Malone, but when you put Malone's career on paper you see how significant it is, how utterly unrivaled it is by guys like Admiral and Chuck, KG, Dirk, Pettit etc. And begrudgingly you almost have to give the Mailman the nod, or at least be willing to accept it if he gets it.

I think this years list is the best one Real GM has done so far.

Here's how mine compares
1) Jordan
2) Russell
3) Jabbar
4) James
5) Magic
6) Wilt
7) Duncan
8) Bird
9) Shaq
10) Mikan
11) Kobe
12) Hakeem
13) Doctor J
14) Oscar
15) West
16) Moses
17) Pettit
18) Mailman
19) KG
20) Barkley
21) Dirk
22) Durant
23) Baylor
24) Robinson
25) Barry