Rumors Surfacing of Houston, Portland, NYK Trade

[Downtown]

I think you will see the Blazers make some cost cutting move, either at deadline or next draft. In particular, there is a good chance that Swanigan is a cheap rotation player next year, and that will allow Portland to move a big. These contracts are hard to move though. I don't know how this is going to work.

I think Swanigan is gonna be a cheap rotation big this year, allowing Portland to move say an Ed Davis for little or nothing in return.

That'd be nice. Of course moving Meyers would be even better but who knows what his market is. Supposedly Davis played injured most of last year, if he can play like his former self he might actually be worth holding onto for a po run

When I see Willie Reed, who in my opinion is much better than Leonard just sign with the Clippers for $1.5mil then I have to say uncle and give in that Portland is going to have an extremely tough time convincing anyone to take on his contract.

The only thing now is to see if he actually can play better and show some sort of trade value as the season goes on. I think he's on the roster for the start of the season.

[Wizenheimer]

I think you can pencil in Davis being sold off since he is an expiring. We aren't going to resign him, and we have actual big depth now. That is an easy one. Probably to a playoff contender out east for a late pick. Getting rid of him by the deadline takes all the money off the years books as far as taxes go, even though we will pay most of it, right? I can imagine showcasing him early (hopefully he returns to form after his surgery)

nope....that was true in the former CBA, but not the new one. Now, taxes are calculated based upon actual total payroll during the season. Obviously, that's not technically true as the tax is assigned on the last day of the regular season and at that time players still have May and June salary due....assuming standard contracts. I'm not sure what the exact process is, but if a player like Davis is traded around the deadline by mid-February, then he'd have been theoretically paid for at least 7 months of the year. Assuming a close correlation between that schedule and the contract terms, Davis might only have 35-40% of his salary left due; in that case, Portland might only clear 2.5-2.6M off their total cap. Still, that could be a 7-8M tax savings

the catch is that players can have different terms built into their contracts. Maybe Davis is one of those players that gets a bunch of front-loaded salary every year; that would reduce Portland's tax savings. I'm not sure how any deferred compensation is applied, and I don't know if any Blazer contracts contain clauses for deferred salary

The problem is that Nurkic has not played a full season since coming into the league and Davis is our only backup center. I'm not ready to hand over major minutes to Collins if Nurkic goes down and I think we all saw that Vonleh at center did not work that well either.

well, Olshey would say that Meyers and Zach are C's.

but yeah, what we're talking about is trading an effective player, one who can bring dimensions Portland is short of, because of the bad contracts and the tax issue. The other side of that is which Davis would Portland be trading? The 2015-16 Davis led the team in defensive rating (tied with Plumlee); was 2nd on the team is PER; led the team with a 19.3% rebound rate (Nurkic was 19.7% last season in a short stint); 2nd on the team in box plus/minus; and led the team in winshares/48.

the 2016-17 Davis saw his defensive rating worsen from 104 to 110; his PER drop from 18.7 to 11.5; his rebound rate drop from 19.3% to 17.1%; his box plus/minus plummet from +3.3 to -2.1; and his winshare/48 crater from .192 to .104. A real Jekyll/Hyde performance that can't be all explained by 'injury'

losing the first version of Davis would hurt, a lot; losing last year's version, not so much. I guess the dilemma will be if Davis comes in early next season and plays well, it would give him more value in trade scenarios, but Portland might be losing some very efficient production, especially if he was back to averaging 4.4 offensive rebounds/36 like he did that season

[tester551]

I think you can pencil in Davis being sold off since he is an expiring. We aren't going to resign him, and we have actual big depth now. That is an easy one. Probably to a playoff contender out east for a late pick. Getting rid of him by the deadline takes all the money off the years books as far as taxes go, even though we will pay most of it, right? I can imagine showcasing him early (hopefully he returns to form after his surgery)

nope....that was true in the former CBA, but not the new one. Now, taxes are calculated based upon actual total payroll during the season. Obviously, that's not technically true as the tax is assigned on the last day of the regular season and at that time players still have May and June salary due....assuming standard contracts. I'm not sure what the exact process is, but if a player like Davis is traded around the deadline by mid-February, then he'd have been theoretically paid for at least 7 months of the year. Assuming a close correlation between that schedule and the contract terms, Davis might only have 35-40% of his salary left due; in that case, Portland might only clear 2.5-2.6M off their total cap. Still, that could be a 7-8M tax savings

the catch is that players can have different terms built into their contracts. Maybe Davis is one of those players that gets a bunch of front-loaded salary every year; that would reduce Portland's tax savings. I'm not sure how any deferred compensation is applied, and I don't know if any Blazer contracts contain clauses for deferred salary

The problem is that Nurkic has not played a full season since coming into the league and Davis is our only backup center. I'm not ready to hand over major minutes to Collins if Nurkic goes down and I think we all saw that Vonleh at center did not work that well either.

well, Olshey would say that Meyers and Zach are C's.

but yeah, what we're talking about is trading an effective player, one who can bring dimensions Portland is short of, because of the bad contracts and the tax issue. The other side of that is which Davis would Portland be trading? The 2015-16 Davis led the team in defensive rating (tied with Plumlee); was 2nd on the team is PER; led the team with a 19.3% rebound rate (Nurkic was 19.7% last season in a short stint); 2nd on the team in box plus/minus; and led the team in winshares/48.

the 2016-17 Davis saw his defensive rating worsen from 104 to 110; his PER drop from 18.7 to 11.5; his rebound rate drop from 19.3% to 17.1%; his box plus/minus plummet from +3.3 to -2.1; and his winshare/48 crater from .192 to .104. A real Jekyll/Hyde performance that can't be all explained by 'injury'

losing the first version of Davis would hurt, a lot; losing last year's version, not so much. I guess the dilemma will be if Davis comes in early next season and plays well, it would give him more value in trade scenarios, but Portland might be losing some very efficient production, especially if he was back to averaging 4.4 offensive rebounds/36 like he did that season

Wiz - are you sure you're correct on calculating the tax?

When I heard they changed they way they calculate the FLOOR several months ago , I asked if that applied to calculating the TAX as well. I searched around and couldn't find anything difinnative.

Larry Coons latest CBA FAQ states this:

When determining the amount of tax a team owes, the league uses its team salary (see question number 13) on the date of its last regular season game (i.e., if a player is traded away before the end of the season, then none of his salary is taxed), with the following adjustments:

Regarding players payments, I'm fairly sure you are wrong in your description. I understood that players salary was applied at 1/82 for each game - regardless if there was a bonus or upfront dispursement of funds.

Regarding the salary floor, Larry states this:

For minimum team salary purposes the salary of a player who changes teams through trade or waivers is divided among the teams for which he played. For example, if a $10 million player is traded exactly 60% of the way through the season, then the player's original team counts $6 million of the player's salary for minimum team salary purposes, and the player's new team counts $4 million of the player's salary for minimum team salary purposes.

So, when a player gets paid is irrelevant.

[Wizenheimer]

Wiz - are you sure you're correct on calculating the tax?

When I heard they changed they way they calculate the FLOOR several months ago , I asked if that applied to calculating the TAX as well. I searched around and couldn't find anything difinnative.

Larry Coons latest CBA FAQ states this:

When determining the amount of tax a team owes, the league uses its team salary (see question number 13) on the date of its last regular season game (i.e., if a player is traded away before the end of the season, then none of his salary is taxed), with the following adjustments:

I'm rarely 100% positive about anything with the CBA

on this particular point, the first thing to keep in mind is that Larry Coon says in the preamble to his new FAQ that it is incomplete.

he says: "I'm still not 100% finished, but it's enough to publish. In particular, the index isn't done and I have about 30 open issues I need to resolve. I'll try to get them updated quickly"

I remember reading this in a couple of articles early about the new CBA, and on the Trades forum, a couple of the moderators have mentioned this "new' provision a time or two. Maybe the actual provision has not changed and we've all been operating on bad information

Regarding players payments, I'm fairly sure you are wrong in your description. I understood that players salary was applied at 1/82 for each game - regardless if there was a bonus or upfront dispursement of funds.

sure, that's the way it has been and may still be. But if it is true that tax will be based upon actual salary paid during the year then front loading would seem to be relevant

this change, if it happened, would seem to complicate things a lot compared to a simple 1/82 formula

[Pattycakes]

How banged up was Ed last year?? He was playing like he forgot basketball.

[bob2]

When determining the amount of tax a team owes, the league uses its team salary on the date of its last regular season game (i.e., if a player is traded away before the end of the season, then none of his salary is taxed)

Even if there are minor points Coon hasn't updated yet, there's no chance he would still keep this sentence if this was incorrect in the new CBA.

[Soulyss]

How banged up was Ed last year?? He was playing like he forgot basketball.

He played hurt all year, he simply wasn't very effective... I suspect him to look like his old self this season.

[Goldbum]

After we lost to the warriors, KD said he thought we were one player away. He said we need a big wing who can create offense... sounds like Melo...too bad he won't accept a trade to Portland. I honestly believe he would have a bit of a career renaissance in the NW.

I wonder how we were able to sign guys like B.Grant,Kenny Anderson, R.Strickland, ect back in the day and now when market size matters less than ever we can't get anything better than a C+/B- type guy to want to play here...

Even crazier to me is how much Portland has grown in the good ways and still retained everything about it that has made it such a unique and amazing city all these years. Free Agents treat PDX like its SLC (barf), it boggles the mind...

[Fitz303]

Let the speculation resume

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[Labinot41]

Cj and Dame think melo is interested in joining the Blazers lol

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[DusterBuster]

Cj and Dame think melo is interested in joining the Blazers lol

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They certainly would know better than you or I would.

[Ripcity4life]

My guess is Melo still needs to sit down with the new KNicks GM and they will talk stuff out then we will have a better idea. Until that happens NOTHING is going to happen unless the Cavs or Rockets give up more or something the Knicks want. I am not sure i want Melo in Portland BUT i am glad both dame and CJ are trying to get melo to change his mind.

[Butter]

Cj and Dame think melo is interested in joining the Blazers lol

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Hopefully it gets to the point that Melo realizes its either the Blazers or staying in NY. Worst case scenario, he plays one season with Dame, CJ and Nurk. If it doesn't work out, he can opt out next year. Instant cap savings for the Blazers!

[Ripcity4life]

Well not really cause most of the money goes right back to Nurk when he signs longterm deal. I would say at best 5 to 8 million or so saving but after Nukic deal they would still be in cap hell just not as deep - LOL

[DusterBuster]

Cj and Dame think melo is interested in joining the Blazers lol

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Hopefully it gets to the point that Melo realizes its either the Blazers or staying in NY. Worst case scenario, he plays one season with Dame, CJ and Nurk. If it doesn't work out, he can opt out next year. Instant cap savings for the Blazers!

This is what I'm hoping too.

It seems like the only teams he's currently willing to goto are Houston and Cleveland. Neither team has stuff the Knicks want in a direct trade. The Blazers do and it seems the Knicks are deadset on trying to get Harkless.

If Melo has half a brain, spending one season in Portland shouldn't be THAT big of a problem. It's certainly better than pissing away another 30 win season with the Knicks. Like you said, if he just hates cold rainy Portland to death, he's free to go wherever he wants next July, but at least he'd actually sniff the playoffs again in Portland with the potential for a deep run next year if things break right.

It'll be itneresting to see how Dame and CJ's pitches go over with him.

[Waynearchetype]

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[GEE]

Wanted to add something I think is worth pointing out. On draft day we made a trade with the Kings, and both sides came out pretty good in the deal IMO... the best kind of trade. Good relations right... and where did the Knicks new GM come from?

[B0naf1d3]

Right now Melo holds all the power, while the Knicks have one power play: the threat of keeping him.
Training camp starts in like what, 2 ½ months? I could see it dragging out that long. The longer it drags out the more likely Melo is willing to waive his no trade clause for the Blazers and others. Which is good news for Perry and the Knicks.
This has real legs to it. Obviously Olshey, Dame, CJ, and Stotts have internally discussed this scenario and we are now seeing the quest to get Melo to waive his NTC for the Blazers begin. For being as unwanted as Melo has been in NY, it has to feel good to be courted by the GM, and star players of a stable playoff caliber organization.

If this plays out in the Blazers favor, what do you think a potential trade looks like?

Harkless + Crabbe + Leonard = Anthony + Lee?

Hurts to lose Harkless especially if (after) Anthony Bolts next summer, but it’s the price you pay to have Leonard in there, and make Dame/CJ happy. Lee would be just as good or better in Crabbe’s role. Knicks get 2 solid young players, and 3 good people/teammates to integrate into a rebuild. Blazers make room for resigning Nurkic (and possibly Vonleh).

[JasonStern]

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[Goldbum]

Drop the no trade clause, and Melo is a Blazer tomorrow... PDX battles GSW in the next 3 WCF's and this becomes one of the great Blazer era's that we look back on fondly for decades. Reality is that Melo won't ever be a Blazer and we wait with baited breath hoping that the talents of Dame,CJ, and Nurkic are not wasted buy the drunken spending of 16