Wow. That’s…….well that’s a tough sell (Dirk at #33). I read some of your argumentation for this (rebounding, lack of shot content coming <10 feet, deflated appreciation of the importance of big-man spacing, etc) and wish to reply to a few things.
Re: Rebounding (and spacing and shot selection criticisms, because they’re kinda related in Dirk’s case)
therealbig3 I think already responded to some of the rebounding, but I’ll just re-iterate that his DREB% and DRebs/100 are right in line with that of Karl or Charles or Moses (especially if we include his playoff numbers in our comparison). It’s his OREB rate that lags behind.
Some of this may be by design (get back on defense), and some is because he’s often operating on the perimeter (and thus not in position to bang the offensive boards). As has been stated, however, there’s a tangible offensive benefit to the latter factor of having a big man who is a threat from the outside (stretches the floor for the rest of the team; theoretically could raise the OREB% of some of his teammates, too, as he’s drawing a big defender out).
One could try to argue that the lack of individual offensive rebounding cancels out any benefit from spacing, but frankly, the burden of proof would be on you, given the offensive results for the Mavs during Dirk’s prime:
‘01 Mavs: 4th/29 ORtg, 29th/29 OREB%
‘02 Mavs: 1st/29 ORtg, 25th/29 OREB%
‘03 Mavs: 1st/29 ORtg, 27th/29 OREB%
‘04 Mavs: 1st/29 ORtg, 3rd/29 OREB% (addition of Danny Fortson likely primary reason for jump in OREB%)
‘05 Mavs: 4th/30 ORtg, 17th/30 OREB% (Fortson and Nash gone, added Dampier, but he misses 23 games)
‘06 Mavs: 1st/30 ORtg, 2nd/30 OREB% (Dampier healthy, added Diop)
‘07 Mavs: 2nd/30 ORtg, 8th/30 OREB%
‘08 Mavs: 8th/30 ORtg, 16th/30 OREB%
‘09 Mavs: 5th/30 ORtg, 16th/30 OREB%
‘10 Mavs: 10th/30 ORtg, 26th/30 OREB%
‘11 Mavs: 8th/30 ORtg, 26th/30 OREB%
Their offense was pretty consistently at or near the top of the league during Dirk’s prime, with or without Steve Nash and regardless of what their OREB% was. This is not to say that offensive rebounds don’t bring a lot of offensive value; but rather I’m suggesting that big man spacing does too. And again consider that his presence near the perimeter (drawing his defender out to him) could theoretically reduce the DREB rate of the opposing team (because one of their primary rebounders has been pulled out away from the basket); this could [again, theoretically] increase the OREB% of his teammates (while decreasing his own).
The other major factor to consider is that if you’re going to bang the offensive glass as a general strategy, you are (of necessity) going to give something up by way of transition defense. I don’t think it’s any coincidence that here in the modern----very scientific and analysis-based strategy/game philosophy----era that team offensive rebounding rates are the lowest they’ve ever been. As a general rule today, teams err more toward getting back on defense rather than banging the offensive glass.
However, it’s true that a lot of the lower OREB% are probably related to the increased 3PAr; but if so, that’s another fly in the ointment as far as comparing their rebounding rates straight up in the first place.
But suffice to say, it’s a difficult road to prove that Dirk as an individual averaging ~1.5 more offensive rebounds per game (some of them potentially cannibalized from his own teammates, if he’s no longer drawing an opposing big man out) would outweigh the loss of spacing and the sacrifices in transition defense.
Re: not enough shots from <10ft
I’ll be honest, this strikes me as a bizarrely arbitrary (read: personal preference) type of criticism. You’d noted how for his career (or since 2000, anyway) that only 22.8% of his attempts have come from <10 feet, iirc, making some derogatory implication (“allergic to the paint” or similar). The implication seems to be that playing in the mid-range makes him “soft”, and he should be banging away inside (because hey: you’re so tall!).
But I’m reminded of a quote from the Harry Potter series: “Play to your strengths, Harry.” How does it make sense to ask Dirk to play in a way that makes him LESS effective, just so he can better fit a “traditional” mold or expectation of a big man?
And further, why does this matter? You noted that (compared to Dirk’s 22.8% of attempts that come from <10 feet) that Tim Duncan had 30.9% of his attempts coming from <3 feet, and seemed to imply this makes Duncan intrinsically better as a big man scorer. How, exactly?
Single best scoring years (for rs).....
‘02 Duncan: 33.5 pts/100 possessions @ 57.6% TS (+5.6% rTS)
‘07 Dirk: 36.4 pts/100 possessions @ 60.5% TS (+6.4% rTS) *’06 is roughly equal to this, too
Duncan ‘98-’13: 30.6 pts/100 possessions @ 55.2% TS (+2.23% rTS)
Dirk ‘00-’14: 33.1 pts/100 possessions @ 58.4% TS (+5.22% rTS)
Despite any preferences on where the shot attempts come from, or how often that shot selection gets him to the FT line----(his prime FTr in rs is only slightly behind that of prime Duncan, btw, and his FTr in the playoffs in his prime is slightly HIGHER than prime Duncan’s)----it’s clear Dirk was a more effective scorer than Duncan.
And he had the spacing effect that Duncan generally does not. AND he generally scales UP in the playoffs (whereas most others do not).
And the the other MAJOR factor about Dirk’s offensive game is that he has a substantially lower turnover rate than just about everyone (this is in part related to his mid-range preference). I’ve railed against the mid-range shot in other places as a relatively low-efficiency shot (though ‘07 and ‘11 Dirk turned that generalization up on its head); however, I’ve also noted that a definitive benefit or advantage the mid-range game has going for it is that it carries a very low probability for turning the ball over.
Dirk has a ridiculously low turnover rate, turning the ball over just 1.8 times per 36 minutes played for his career. His career TOV% is just 8.5%.
One might try to counter by saying he doesn’t make a ton of assists or plays for others, though. And fwiw, I’ve always been annoyed that TOV% doesn’t factor in play-making at all. It’s formula is simply:
TO / [TO + TSA]
In response to my irritation, I’ve gone and generated a “Modified Turnover %”, which is as follows:
TO / [TO + TSA + (Ast * 2) + (Reb * 0.04)]
Note this includes assists (multiplied by 2, figuring for every assist made, there is another potential assist that doesn’t occur because the teammate missed the shot); and it also include total rebounds (multiplied by very small modifier) figuring a player is occasionally stripped or throws it away on the outlet pass, etc…...the modifier assumes this happens once every 25 boards.
So Dirk’s modest assist rate and his [in your opinion] mediocre rebounding rate works against him in this formula (relative to guys like Duncan, Barkley, or Karl Malone). And yet here are their respective career rs Modified TOV%:
Duncan - 9.26%
Karl - 9.50%
Charles - 10.64%
Moses - 12.90%
Dirk - 6.73%
I haven’t run EVERYONE thru this formula, but so far the ONLY player I’ve found whose career rs Mod TOV% is lower than Dirk’s is Chris Paul (6.30%). The only other guys I’ve found who are even close are Michael Jordan (6.82%), Horace Grant (6.91%), and Tracy McGrady (7.18%).
And guys like Duncan or Mailman obviously were NOT at all turnover-prone. And yet they still lag that far behind Dirk where turnovers are concerned.
Looping full-circle back to the lower offensive rebound rate criticism, I would say his lower turnover rate very nearly cancels out any deficit on the offensive boards (i.e. while he’s not retaining possessions as often via OREB, he’s also not turning the ball over as often, and by a similar number, too).
Anyway, coming back to the #33 thing……..
Objectively, I just don’t see how this is tenable. Dirk’s played nineteen seasons (the last few---years many players never got around to---are dragging his career avg’s down), and yet:
*He’s still 25th all-time in career rs PER.
**He’s 11th all-time in career playoff PER.
***He’s 22nd all-time in career rs WS/48 and is 8th all-time in career rs win shares.
****He’s 19th all-time in career playoff WS/48 and is 13th all-time in career playoff win shares.
*****He’s 18th all-time (or since ‘74) in career rs VORP.
******He’s 22nd all-time (or since ‘74) in career playoff VORP.
EDIT: I also have a formula to figure up cumulative value over a roughly replacement level player as measured by PER and WS/48 in both rs and playoffs (each playoff minute played weighted 3.25x heavier than each rs minute), assuming when they're not on the court it's a replacement level player subbing in for them......Dirk is 8th all-time by this formula.
I've noted there was greater parity in these metrics in certain earlier eras, and figured out some standard deviations for each (year-by-year); from this created a "scaled" PER and WS/48 for everyone, and again calculated cumulative career value above replacement level based on scaled PER and WS/48.......Dirk is 10th all-time by this version.
I have other much more complex formulations which include A LOT more data; without going into a ton of detail, I'll just state that those formulas rank Dirk 16th, 10th, and 15th all-time, respectively.
And one cannot say it’s empty stats (lacking impact). If we look at RAPM, best 10 years combined, only five players have a better 10-year combined (this is in the last 24 seasons, data back to ‘94 if we use colts18’s rs-only regressions; plus have RAPM for Barkley from ‘88 to ‘92, provided by Dipper, iirc): Shaq, Lebron, KG, Duncan, and *Manu Ginobili (*important to note Manu’s comes with a lot of minute-restriction, though).
Now given the data cuts off before ‘94 (except for Barkley), some players are missing huge chunks of their primes (DRob, Jordan, Hakeem, Mailman, Stockton, etc). But if we look at the best 7-years combined, it’s still just the same five players who had better than Dirk.
If we look at best 5-year combined, it’s again the “pantheon four” of Lebron, Shaq, KG, and Duncan, plus *David Robinson [*barely, and with ps numbers excluded from ‘94-’96].
If we look at best 3-year combined, only “the pantheon four” rated higher than Dirk.
In short: the impact is there (probably even goes at least marginally above what his box-based metrics indicate).
Additionally (narrative/accolade stuff)…..
*He’s been an MVP and is 26th all-time in NBA MVP Award shares.
**He’s won a title as “the man”, and won FMVP.
***He’s a 13-time NBA All-Star.
****He’s made 12 All-NBA teams (4 1st, 5 2nd, 3 3rd). Note this is also in one of the toughest eras in NBA history, and with a prime that exactly coincides with all or some of the primes of Lebron James (voted in #3), Tim Duncan (voted in #5) and Garnett (voted #12), as well as forwards like Pau Gasol, Chris Webber, Paul Pierce, Elton Brand, Chris Bosh, Carmelo Anthony, Shawn Marion (Tracy McGrady occasionally counted as a forward in award voting, too), and later Kevin Durant.
