Is Zach Lavine too one dimensional?

[kodo]

Shooting specialist SGs, which is what Lavine is, generally do not have a high PER especially in their developmental years. Klay didn't break league average until his 4th season, and even now as arguably the best SG in the entire league in his mold, has a 17 PER.

Lavine is not a dynamic on-ball creator doing everything like Harden. He's an off-ball jump shooter, like Klay, with some depth to his game where he can cut backdoor or attack close outs.

Code: Select all

PLAYER   AGE PER   ORTG
LAVINE    21 14.6  112
KLAY T    21 14.9  102
MCCOLLUM  -- ---- ----
BEAL      21 14.0  102


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PLAYER   AGE PER   ORTG
LAVINE    22 ????  ????
KLAY T    22 12.7  102
MCCOLLUM  22  9.0  95
BEAL      22 15.5  103


Code: Select all

PLAYER   AGE PER   ORTG
LAVINE    23 ????  ????
KLAY T    23 14.3  108
MCCOLLUM  23 13.1  103
BEAL      23 20.1  117


Other notable PERs for off-ball SGs,
- Boston championship Ray Allen: 16.4
- Miami championship Ray Allen: 14.7
- 60 win Atlanta Korver: 14.8
- Spurs championship Danny Green: 13.9
- Detroit championship Rip Hamilton: 16.8

PER is essentially a single value that weighs boxscore in different ways, and it probably weighs rebounds far too heavily for the modern game. The 2nd highest PER on the Warriors is, of course, Jevale McGee. Makes total sense, he has the highest rebounding % on the team.

If we wanted Zach to increase his PER, he could easily do that by securing easy rebounds on misses like Rondo or Wade, instead of running out on fast breaks and filling the corner 3, like Klay Thompson.

And we would be a worse team for it.

[Leslie Forman]

LaVine projects, hell he arguably already is, a top-tier shooter. I liken him to Klay offensively, but the likelihood of him improving his defense like Klay has is unlikely. What Klay did on that end is incredibly rare, arguably even more rare than what Jimmy did on offense.

Anyways the problem is that this would be fine if LaVine projected as your second or third-best offensive guy and third or fourth-best overall guy, like Klay on GSW or Ray Allen in Boston. If he is the best guy on your team you're screwed.

[TheStig]

The Gordon comparison itself is surprisingly not that far off on a stats profile. The link is using BG career, if we did a peak season Zach would come off worse (Ben peaked at 18.2 PER), but wouldn't be so fair to Zach's age.



While this is not apparent on the surface since Zach is a lanky dunk champion, and Ben a little sharpshooter, in terms of what they actually do on the floor - mostly score, play bad defense, shoot a lot threes - its not so far off.

Ben was a bit higher volume in his prime, a better 3pt shooter (though volume is quite close) while Zach shoots a better percentage at 2 pointers, and takes a noticeable higher % of his shots at the rim (27% to 16% roughly).

However surprisingly Ben Gordon drew more fouls than Zach LaVine has.

On things like Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and Blocks, they are similarly mundane or anemic across the board.

The optimistic view would be Zach's size and physical talent offers him hope of much higher upside, but 3 years in, he hasn't leveraged these traits much at all.

I think BG is a great comparison. Though the hope for optimism is that Zach was a 3rd option in MN. He'll be a 1st option here. I think you'll see his raw scoring numbers and assists will go up but his efficiency will likely decrease a bit.

I just don't see Zach becoming a great creator or above average defender. He is pretty one dimensional.

[Flopper]

Not sure I'd use the same supporting evidence to make the case, but I agree with the sentiment that he is more of a supporting than a core piece. The worrisome part about the Butler trade is that all of the guys they got in return project out as just rotation players. How many drafts will it take to find a guy worth building around again?

[BeKuK]

What if his production level would be much higher and this damn injury never happend? Do you guys believe he would be a Bull now? How tall is he 6'5 / 6'6 ? with this athleticism and a high production level......well, he might run a kind of a franchise that way.

I think Rerisen might some pretty good points here and I agree with him.

Use Zach Lavine the right way and allow him to do what he can do the best way....and enjoyyyyy.

[Chi]

Giving Lavine a big money extension would be very stupid.

Not giving it to him would be even stupider...

The play is to trade him. There are no other good options.

In your world...

[Chi]

LaVine projects, hell he arguably already is, a top-tier shooter. I liken him to Klay offensively, but the likelihood of him improving his defense like Klay has is unlikely. What Klay did on that end is incredibly rare, arguably even more rare than what Jimmy did on offense.

Anyways the problem is that this would be fine if LaVine projected as your second or third-best offensive guy and third or fourth-best overall guy, like Klay on GSW or Ray Allen in Boston. If he is the best guy on your team you're screwed.

Didn't work out so bad for Reggie Miller...

Ray Allen either...

[waffle]

kind of an important dimension....

[Sinistar6]

I look at ZL through rose colored glasses but I really do not care about fake stats. When you watch him you see a phenom on the offensive side of the ball. Drives, dunks, handles, trey ball, create own shot, create shot for others. He is atheletically gifted on a generation type level and has the ball skills also. Sure there are going to be slumps and hard times as he recovers and learns his way but his upside is phenom.

[Leslie Forman]

LaVine projects, hell he arguably already is, a top-tier shooter. I liken him to Klay offensively, but the likelihood of him improving his defense like Klay has is unlikely. What Klay did on that end is incredibly rare, arguably even more rare than what Jimmy did on offense.

Anyways the problem is that this would be fine if LaVine projected as your second or third-best offensive guy and third or fourth-best overall guy, like Klay on GSW or Ray Allen in Boston. If he is the best guy on your team you're screwed.

Didn't work out so bad for Reggie Miller...

Ray Allen either...

I'm not sure what your point is because even though those guys were actually quite a bit better than what LaVine even projects to be, they never won a title as the #1 guy. And that was during the offensively inept '90s-early '00s, a time that is pretty irrelevant now where every good team moves and shoots at a high level.

Much like how Ray needed Pierce, Reggie needed Jalen Rose, and Allen Houston needed Latrell Sprewell, I think you actually need another wing that's more dynamic and all-around skilled to pair with him.

Like Jimmy Butler, one could say.

[Hangtime84]

LaVine projects, hell he arguably already is, a top-tier shooter. I liken him to Klay offensively, but the likelihood of him improving his defense like Klay has is unlikely. What Klay did on that end is incredibly rare, arguably even more rare than what Jimmy did on offense.

Anyways the problem is that this would be fine if LaVine projected as your second or third-best offensive guy and third or fourth-best overall guy, like Klay on GSW or Ray Allen in Boston. If he is the best guy on your team you're screwed.

Didn't work out so bad for Reggie Miller...

Ray Allen either...

I'm not sure what your point is because even though those guys were actually quite a bit better than what LaVine even projects to be, they never won a title as the #1 guy. And that was during the offensively inept '90s-early '00s, a time that is pretty irrelevant now where every good team moves and shoots at a high level.

Much like how Ray needed Pierce, Reggie needed Jalen Rose, and Allen Houston needed Latrell Sprewell, I think you actually need another wing that's more dynamic and all-around skilled to pair with him.

Like Jimmy Butler, one could say.

You need multiple good players at the same time.

Let's hope he can still improve

[Dominator83]

Question: does anybody know if there's anywhere that I can physically buy a Lavine Jersey yet? I would rather get it at a store than online. Especially now with Nike since they're sizes are normally stingier than Adidas

[Chi]

LaVine projects, hell he arguably already is, a top-tier shooter. I liken him to Klay offensively, but the likelihood of him improving his defense like Klay has is unlikely. What Klay did on that end is incredibly rare, arguably even more rare than what Jimmy did on offense.

Anyways the problem is that this would be fine if LaVine projected as your second or third-best offensive guy and third or fourth-best overall guy, like Klay on GSW or Ray Allen in Boston. If he is the best guy on your team you're screwed.

Didn't work out so bad for Reggie Miller...

Ray Allen either...

I'm not sure what your point is because even though those guys were actually quite a bit better than what LaVine even projects to be, they never won a title as the #1 guy. And that was during the offensively inept '90s-early '00s, a time that is pretty irrelevant now where every good team moves and shoots at a high level.

Much like how Ray needed Pierce, Reggie needed Jalen Rose, and Allen Houston needed Latrell Sprewell, I think you actually need another wing that's more dynamic and all-around skilled to pair with him.

Like Jimmy Butler, one could say.

Jordan Needed Pippen... Kobe needed Shaq... etc. etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

We're not screwed is the point...

[RedBulls23]

Question: does anybody know if there's anywhere that I can physically buy a Lavine Jersey yet? I would rather get it at a store than online. Especially now with Nike since they're sizes are normally stingier than Adidas

Go to a store, try a size of any jersey on, and then order one online from the bulls website.

Just an idea.

[WindyCityBorn]

What I don't understand is why the discussion is revolving around Zack being our best player? He is our best player right now while we are tanking. With the high picks we are about to start collecting we will hopefully draft someone that projects as a true franchise player. I personally think he can be top 3 player on a championship team and put up 24ppg or better. Regardless I don't understand worry in the discussion on his merits as our best player as if we have no way to improve the roster significantly going forward. We are going to be collecting top 5 picks for a few years at least.

[bearadonisdna]

Yeah i think of kevin martin.
But i think if he wouldnt have injured his acl.
Hypothetically if he wasnt injured his progression has been ideal.
I think most of us wouldnt have complaints. A 22 yr old player with dunk championships and averaging about 19 ppg.
His career arc was heading towards????? Superstardom? Max player?

[BR0D1E86]

Yeah i think of kevin martin.
But i think if he wouldnt have injured his acl.
Hypothetically if he wasnt injured his progression has been ideal.
I think most of us wouldnt have complaints. A 22 yr old player with dunk championships and averaging about 19 ppg.
His career arc was heading towards????? Superstardom? Max player?

Superstardom is extreme. His upside is probably the #2 scorer on a contending team. More likely is probably a real high end third option. He's got a real high ceiling as a scorer. He very much needs to round out the rest of his game. I hope he does, he's got skills and athleticism.

[Dominator83]

Question: does anybody know if there's anywhere that I can physically buy a Lavine Jersey yet? I would rather get it at a store than online. Especially now with Nike since they're sizes are normally stingier than Adidas

Go to a store, try a size of any jersey on, and then order one online from the bulls website.

Just an idea.

Not really. Because it would have to be a new Nike Jersey Im trying on. And I'm guessing that if they're out ( or when they come out), Lavine will be the main Bulls Jersey being sold locally

[RedBulls23]

Question: does anybody know if there's anywhere that I can physically buy a Lavine Jersey yet? I would rather get it at a store than online. Especially now with Nike since they're sizes are normally stingier than Adidas

Go to a store, try a size of any jersey on, and then order one online from the bulls website.

Just an idea.

Not really. Because it would have to be a new Nike Jersey Im trying on. And I'm guessing that if they're out ( or when they come out), Lavine will be the main Bulls Jersey being sold locally

Well that's what I meant. Try any nba nike jersey on. I wasn't aware they aren't in stores yet.

[WindyCityBorn]

Yeah i think of kevin martin.
But i think if he wouldnt have injured his acl.
Hypothetically if he wasnt injured his progression has been ideal.
I think most of us wouldnt have complaints. A 22 yr old player with dunk championships and averaging about 19 ppg.
His career arc was heading towards????? Superstardom? Max player?

Superstardom is extreme. His upside is probably the #2 scorer on a contending team. More likely is probably a real high end third option. He's got a real high ceiling as a scorer. He very much needs to round out the rest of his game. I hope he does, he's got skills and athleticism.

I think he will be an all-star. I also think he could round out his stats more as well. His assists should go up as he get the ball more than he did in Minnesota. Not sure about the rebounding and defense. His frame is still very slight. I think he needs to add about 10lbs or so to get more physical.