Boston Offseason Review General Info
Key Losses:
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
Amir Johnson
Losses:
Tyler Zeller
Jordan Mickey
Demetrius Jackson
James Young
Jonas Jerebko
Gerald Green.
Draft:
#1 (traded)
#3 Jayson Tatum (traded for)
#37 Semi Ojeleye
#53 Kadeem Allen (two way contract)
#56 Jabari Bird (stashed)
Trades:
#1 for #3 and LAL ’18 1st (2-5) if best of SAC/Phi ’19 1st top 1 protected
Avery Bradley and 2019 2nd rounder for Marcus Morris
Free Agency:
Gordon Hayward 4/128m
Aron Baynes 1/4.3m
Jayson Tatum rookie scale
Guerschon Yabusele (2016 1st) rookie scale
ZIzic (2016 1st) rookie scale
Semi Ojeleye 3+1/6m with ~2m gtd.
Abdel Nader 3+1/6m with ~1.5m gtd.
Daniel Theis 2 year min contract, gtd this year only
Kadeem Allen two-way contract.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Terry Rozier
SG: Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart
SF: Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Semi Ojeleye, Abdel Nader
PF: Marcus Morris, Jayson Tatum, Guerschon Yabusele, Daniel Theis
C: Al Horford, Aron Baynes, Ante Zizic
HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Losing Amir and Olynyk to one of the worst rebounding big rotations, and positionally Boston's area of weakness feels like it deserves a lot more emphasis than it has gotten in light of the loss of Bradley. Boston's big rotation has been a problem, and its not about the outgoing so much as does the incoming replace/improve on it. After all Amir was a bad rebounder, and is old and heading downhill...
But I would pause when looking at who had Boston's best defensive ratings last season:
http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612738/players-advanced/?sort=DEF_RATING&dir=-1
1 Rozier ~probably because he played so little with Bradley
2 Amir
3 Olynyk (who happened to lead Boston in Dreb%)
DBPM similarly loved Amir (led Celtics). And DRPM? It had him fully 9th in the league (next highest was Crowder at 63).
Amir's been a guy who does the dirty work and gets his team better, and I don't see that coming back in. This is a big loss. Olynyk's intriguing skill set hurts too, and losing the best defensive reboudner from a team that cannot rebound isn't the best thing that can happen.
Bradley's numbers kept declining, and all due deference to Joel Embiid calling for Bradley on the all defensive team, I think you need positive metrics to be considered for it. So we had: undersized, bad defensive numbers, expiring contract ... but 39% 3 point shooter and second on the team in scoring. Bradley being able to guard a pg and shoot the 3 felt pretty important as a possible backcourt mate to Smart, who looks less positionally flexible without Bradley.
Altogether, I think Boston gave up a lot this offseason.
Losses:
Jerebko is probably a bigger loss than Demetrius Jackson and James Young, which is meant as stinging criticism.
Draft:
Why Tatum? Why not Isaac? I'm fine skipping Josh Jackson -- between age and shot the red flags scared me out of him at 3 -- but Tatum just seems like a unsafely safe pick. Maybe he is the next Paul Pierce. But I would have been reaching for the raw potential of Isaac. DSJ did grade interesting as well, and Boston was rumored to have some interest. I'm not sold on Tatum for Boston, or in general as the guy at #3, but if you give up the idea of hitting a home run, then Tatum is actually a solid looking double and the pick is absolutely defensible.
Semi Ojeleye seems a decent 2nd rounder. More than that, he seems a steal. I like this pick tons. If it fails it fails, but it has room to be a brilliant pick.
Trades:
Easiest thing first, I think the Bradley trade was a loss. They obviously went for production now versus a protected pick future asset, and that makes sense. But they lost that end of the deal, and gave up a 2nd rounder to get a smaller contract. Marcus Morris fits more that Tweener forward mold then a guy who I say, who cares if Horford cannot rebound at center, we have Marcus Morris on the glass at pf with his 12.8% dreb%. Maybe Drummond suppressed the numbers some, but realistically, Boston looks tobe playing a bunch of 3's at the 2-4 spots and you can call the positions whatever is trendy but someone needs to do perimeter playmaking and someone needs to do interior rebounding. The second one is a problem. Did I mention I liked the idea of a guy like Isaac being picked to groom into the 4 spot of this position-less 2-4 mess so they could have a help defender and rebounder? No? I really should add that sporadically through here, so if he busts this can look bad everywhere.
What to say about the #1 for #3 + future pick trade?
Superstar or bust. How many NBA championship teams over the last 20-30 years did not have a 1st team All NBA player or a defending DPOTY? As in a top 6 player, not a top 15. Yes, most people don't think of the single best defensive player in the league as a top 6 player, but that bias doesn't change the reality that historically you need a guy in that top 6 tier to win it all.
Does Boston have that? Nope. Not even close. Did Boston draft that with Tatum? I'm saying no already. They might not have gotten it with Fultz either so I'm okay with the idea of making a move for the LAL '18 pick. After all, this has a chance at being that as much as Fultz perhaps. But top #1 protection and the chance that it isn't conveyed just makes me squeamish for liking it for Boston. And Tatum feels like a guy without Giannis level upside even if he is in 75% of scenarios a better player than say Isaac. And maybe that is what matters here, go for the safe pick that can always be leveraged in a trade later, but it is the opposite of the swing for the fence on Jaylen Brown taken last year (which I disliked there as well, although that was seeing more upside in Murray).
Still, I like the idea of trying to roll this one over. Especially when you ask:
Is Butler a top 6 player in the NBA?
Is George a top 6 player in the NBA?
I get two no's, so yeah, I'm good here.
Free Agency:
Is Baynes an upgrade on Amir, or did the Boston big man rotation get a downgrade? I'm leaning the latter, and yes, obviously Hayward is the lead story but the Boston big rotation scares me. It and Isaiah Thomas' hip are the two variables that look between Boston and getting to the finals. He is a better rebounder at least, but Boston seems in need of a solution here.
Hayward is great. Getting the Horford's and Hayward's not just keeps Boston as a 50 win team, it will make them seem areal destination for the Durant's when they come around. But Hayward is a lot more Horford than Durant, and Boston no longer has all that cap space the small AB/IT/Crowder contracts made available.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
I would probably start Crowder at the 4 before Marcus Morris when push comes to shove. Boston's depth chart makes me feel like the team is worse than the sum of its parts, and so far the Boston team has been the opposite, and greater than a bunch of (very) solid role players. I'm concerned we get a 'whats wrong with Boston' slew of articles come December when they are 15-10 and figuring it all back out again.
Needs:
A legit rim protector.
Another defensive glass rebounder at the 4 or 5.
IT's health.
Incorporating minutes and shots seamlessly -- player buy in that has been there in the past
A backup pg-sg for depth.
That top 5-6 NBA player
Additional Thoughts:
Ainge is a lightning rod. And next draft looks to be some sort of Waterloo for one side or another in the great Ainge debates. While I'm a fan of grading process over random results of a good (or bad) process, the random results Ainge gets next draft will deeply effect his legacy for the past two years.
I wish the Celtics had Noel. And even more so Cousins. Cousins is a guy who could come back with a yes to my question on Butler/George above if he gets it all together, and thats what Boston needed to go swinging for.
Trade idea: Crowder +for Cousins. Whats +? Just start adding and see when you have to stop. I'm not getting picky. Just make it happen.
Projected Win/Loss: 56-26 It should be higher but I have some concerns. I think a midseason trade is in order, or else I would have had it lower even.
Off-Season Grade: A- If Boston couldn't get a top 6 NBA player, then shelling out future assets that *might* get one for a top 10-25 player is a risky way of cutting off upside, even if getting that top 25 player would have taken them to the finals.
The problem is might is a tricky low probability word, and there is always the chance of getting incredibly hot during exactly the right playoff series (or an opponent injury). This was such a high stakes set of gambles on moves both taken and not taken.
And as part of this A-, I'm also considering giving Ainge an F on not getting Cousins last trade deadline, even if it cost them Hayward. Maybe the cost was just too high, but anything with Crowder/Bradley/Brown (picked higher than Hield)/non-Brooklyn picks should have been offered.
And so this is all about Cousins (and Isaac), I will add that while the AD watch concept is absurdly premature, AD does qualify as someone (potentially) worth it by the criterion I have been using, and I'm okay with the idea of trying to preserve assets until then versus spending them on a lesser player. Porzingis I don't see that upside to, but thats probably best for another topic. (If Utah would have been a team to fall apart after losing Hayward, Gobert's defense would qualify him but thats another story.)
Slava wrote:Slava’s Boston Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
I think the bigger loss here is going to be Olynyk rather than Bradley. Despite his 3 pt % dropping a whopping 5% from the season before his TS% & eFG% ticked higher last year owing to much improved finishing ability from < 10ft in and the mid range. His defensive rebounding percentage improved and he posted solid defensive metrics. Even though they got Morris as a cheaper replacement, he is not nearly the same caliber of offensive player as Olynyk.
There’s always rave reviews for Bradley but his DRPM has slid since 2014-15 into the negative territory and most of his minutes will be covered by a better play in Hayward.
Losses:
Amir Johnson +rest of above list
The losses of Zeller, Johnson and Mickey coupled with Olynyk is going to be interesting as this is not a very strong rebounding team and going even smaller with Horford and Morris in the frontcourt would put extra onus on Hayward, Tatum, Brown and Crowder to do their diligence by helping out in that department.
Draft:
They were obviously limited in their ability to maneuver at the top of the draft owing to workout withdrawals from Ball and Jackson and the Jackson withdrawal must have really hurt them as he’d have given them a good defensive player who is strong on the boards to play behind Hayward at SG instead of going with the undersized Smart.
I’m not very sure of the Tatum fit here, he is a smooth offensive player but someone who operates heavily in the midrange and mid post area in an era when teams are consciously going away from it. He was not an especially good 3 pt shooter in college (34% at 4 attempts a game) but he is a strong FT shooter (85% at 6 attempts) which has shown to be slightly better correlated when predicting the NBA 3 point %. He is probably not going to find it easy to come to terms with the depth and game plan the Celtics currently have and there are some growing pains to be expected here.
Ojelye on the other hand seems a very solid 2nd round pick as a versatile player who did well in the summer league even if summer league performance is less predictive for junior year level draft prospects than it is for freshmen level players.
Trades:
The biggest move other than getting Hayward was trading out of the #1 slot having worked out Fultz. I’m ambivalent about this move as they would have done every bit of diligence on Fultz and got a closer look at him before deciding to pass up. Fit wise, either him or Jackson would have been better for this roster than Tatum. Although Fultz’s stats seem quite impressive, its hard to gauge a player’s performance outside of the better conferences like the ACC or PAC12 especially without tournament play and if he maxes out as a Damian Lillard style player, you could argue that acquiring a lucrative future 1st for dropping two slots is a very good return.
Bradley and a 2nd for Morris is a trade that seems partly motivated by the unexpected squeeze of the final cap number coming well under estimates teams worked with and the sudden need to fit in Hayward’s salary. Considering the circumstances, it will probably look better in hindsight to give up Bradley approaching free agency than the more cost controlled contract of Crowder.
Free Agency:
Celtics finally hit their mark in free agency by landing Hayward who seemed a bit overwhelmed as the primary playmaker and scorer in Utah but he will suit perfectly well in Boston alongside someone like Thomas who can lessen the offensive burden on him. In a vacuum he is not worth the money he is getting but you have to pay premium to extract an all star from a team willing to match all offers.
Zizic is a good rebounder who could help add versatility to the front court that needs his skill set and Baynes after an ill advised opt out from Detroit is a nice pick up as well for the price.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
They could likely use some third string guards as injury insurance, otherwise a very deep and flexible roster with future assets in the pipeline. 28 other teams could envy what the Celtics have.
Needs
Third string guard depth
Good health for Isiah Thomas
A higher risk tolerance from Ainge and the front office to make a move midseason if a high caliber player becomes available
Additional Thoughts:
In hindsight with the pandemonium in Cleveland, I think they missed a trick by not pushing for Butler or George to solidify themselves as the #1 seed in the East and increasing their odds at an NBA finals appearance.
Given the cap squeeze going into next summer's free agency with a star heavy market, they might still be in a position to benefit with some sign and trades.
Projected Win/Loss: 55-27
Off-Season Grade: A-
bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Boston Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Draft:
Trades:
As well as I felt they did in free agency, I'm a little meh on the trades. I don't hate either, but can't say I love either. I'll admit I'm not a big fan of Bradley and I do like Morris, but adding a 2nd and just the fact that the fit isn't great to me sways it so that I don't think they really did anything here other than decide they don't want to pay Bradley in a year. Morris plays their most stacked position and was a worse rebounded than Bradley at a bigger position. He's also possibly blocking Brown on the depth chart unless they go small with him at PF a lot (BBR has him listed at under 10 percent of minutes at PF the last 2 years).
The Philly trade was another that I didn't love but didn't hate. I'll say this first: I don't buy Ainge would have taken Tatum first overall. Not for a second. And he did pick up an extra asset, but one that may be a bit less valuable after the Lakers got a couple guys where they might not be quite bad enough to get that pick (though I do think they'll still be pretty bad and bottom 5 seems rather possible too). If I'm being honest I'd have just taken Fultz, but that will be seen in the future.
Free Agency:
They got their guy in Hayward. There's really not much else to be said here, was the number 1 player on the market and they pulled him in, great get. Baynes is a decent backup or 3rd big, I'd like to see this spot addressed maybe as well.
Outside of that it was pretty much all the rooks and some of the overseas crew from last year's draft which was mostly expected. That said free agency was obviously a big win for them.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Needs:
A rebounding big is still a pretty big hole here. Rim protection too but I don't see how they don't struggle again with rebounding and I expect them to be good defensively either way.
Additional Thoughts:
Projected Win/Loss: 55-27
Off-Season Grade: B or B+, they got the top free agent but honestly I wasn't high on much else. If I'm grading based off the hand dealt to them, I can't go higher personally.
Mamba4goat wrote:Mamba4Goat's Review
Key Losses:
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
Bradley will be missed, but but his absence opens up time for Hayward and their young players so I'm not losing sleep over it. Olynyk is also a meh-ish loss.
Losses:
Amir Johnson + rest
None of these guys really helped or anything other than Amir, but Baynes should fill in sufficiently for him.
Draft:
I'm going to be honest, I don't know much about anyone other than Tatum, who I'll address below.
Trades:
I love the trade with Philly, especially if Tatum was their guy from the get go. They got another crazy asset for moving down to get the guy they want, and I've liked what I've seen from Tatum so far. The Bradley and Morris trade is also good with me. They got a legit PF which they were lacking on a great value contract.
Free Agency:
Love that Hayward came here, was really hoping he did. Imo he can put them over Cleveland and the C's are coming out of the East this year. Baynes was also a great signing, replaced a lot of the big man depth they lost with him along with the two Euro hogs coming over.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Needs:
Meh, wouldn't mind another SG, maybe?
Additional Thoughts:
I loved Boston's off season and I love Ainge's patience. He isn't in a rush to trade for a star and is waiting for the right move. If the asking price for PG and Butler were too much, oh well. They're still sitting pretty nicely. Their team is on position to compete for the title this year and has a very nice young nucleus thats only going to grow as they cash in on the BK, LA/Sac, LAC, and Memphis picks. The last two are also looking better as we go, so that's something to keep an eye on. I see Ainge making a move for AD when the time is right, I have no problem with what Boston has right now in the mean time. Also, I trust that Stevens will make the whole 4 SF's thing work perfectly.
Projected Win/Loss: 63/19
{I bet I have the most faith in Boston out of the Mods)
[u]Off-Season Grade: A [u].
