Prospects and trade discussion

[Ranma]

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[Neddy]

Gotta be honest here.

Is there a single person that the new FO has sent out that you wish we had back?

You can look back to the start of their tenure. I don't think I can find one. Doesn't mean I think every trade was just an A+ but it's just a fact. I don't think I miss a single player they've sent out.


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I agree with you. this FO is top notch, unlike Dave Dombrowski or the guy in charge of the Royals.

[Ranma]

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Ken Rosenthal, Facebook.com (7/31/17)

The familiar Dodgers narrative – they are overly cautious, too protective of their prospects - is no more.

Friedman despises trading youngsters at the deadline, but the Dodgers have not won a World Series since 1988. Hence, his acquisitions of Rich Hill and Josh Reddick a year ago and Darvish, Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani this year - all while threading the needle and keeping his best minor-league talent.

Sometimes, whether you’re a buyer or seller, you’ve just got to go.
...

The Dodgers also were trying for Britton, but launched into Plan B after learning he would be unavailable. The Astros evidently had no Plan B – or at least not one that came to fruition.
...

The difference between the Rangers’ return for Darvish and Athletics’ return for Gray reflected the difference in club control – two months for Darvish, a potential free agent, and two-plus seasons for Gray.

Even then, the Rangers did reasonably well to land second baseman Willie Calhoun, right-hander A.J. Alexy and shortstop Brendon Dixon [sic]* – the fourth, 17th- and 27th-ranked prospects in the Dodgers’ deep system, according to MLB.com.

The competition for Darvish was relatively mild, according to sources with knowledge of the discusions. The Yankees were focused on Gray, while the Indians made only a mild push and had the added complication of being on Darvish’s no-trade list. The extent to which other teams were involved is not known.

Most evaluators agree that Calhoun, 22, will be a strong offensive player, and his defensive challenges make him a more natural fit for the AL. Alexy, 19, and Davis, 20, are upside plays, but the package as a whole clearly offered far value than the pick in the 75-80 range the Rangers would have received if they had lost Darvish as a free agent after making him a qualifying offer.

The Dodgers, who negotiated simultaneously for Darvish and Britton, conceivably could have landed both pitchers, sources said. The respective packages, however, contained some overlap, and the volume of prospects required would have made such a haul difficult to pull off.

Facebook Post: Ken Rosenthal


* Brendon Davis

[Ranma]

The Dodgers were resigned and prepared to move on from Darvish after the deal with Texas looked dead. The front office walked away from negotiations only to have the Rangers call back with 20 minutes left before the deadline to concede in moving off demands for either Buehler or Verdugo and expressing a willingness to accept Calhoun as the centerpiece of a trade package.

The Dodgers called the Rangers' bluff as their GM found it difficult to gain traction in trade talks with other teams. The Indians expressed interest but were also on Darvish's no-trade list and Texas was uncomfortable with the idea of presenting an impending free agent they hoped to sign again with a snap-decision to make.

Both sides agree that Calhoun represents a rare combination of contact and power, but his short and stocky build along with his lacking defensive acumen made him a better fit in the AL with the DH rule, which allowed for an acceptable backup plan should he not work out in the field.

In the end, the Dodgers were the last team standing and the Rangers really had no other choice. The brain trust in the Dodgers' front office did fine work in not being bullied into doing something it did not feel good about executing. Fortune favors the prepared, so hopefully that will continue to ring true for the boys in blue this upcoming postseason.

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[Ranma]

Buster Olney hosted a Baseball Tonight podcast that also featured Keith Law, Karl Ravech, Jerry Krasnick, and Tim Kurkjian.

Law expressed concern over talk about how Yu Darvish was tipping his pitches, which he felt typically hides physical ailments or serious injury issues. It was also reported elsewhere that the Rangers didn't provide medical reports until the last minute, which was a red flag of concern for teams. In any case, the Dodgers' trainers apparently gave the thumbs up on Darvish's medical report during the under-the-gun negotiations detailed in the Yahoo Sports article referenced above.

I believe Law also mentioned how he was getting conflicting reports over the Padres' asking price for Brand Hand. While most reports had San Diego asking for the moon, Law heard one team turned down the Padres' request for 2 prospects ranked outside of the top 100 in baseball. Olney goes on to say that it may be an indicator of how teams view the volatile commodity of a relief pitcher who was cut in recent years even with 2 seasons of success thus far.

Speaking of dysfunctional organizations, the Orioles were roundly criticized for not dealing Britton and even Machado. Both will be free agents after next season with diminishing trade value as they approach their respective freedom to choose where to play next after their current contracts expire.

Law also cited Tony Cingrani as a typical non-deadline player Friedman and Zaidi would normally trade for as a talented player who was previously highly thought of but needed to be rehabbed in development in order to recoup value and regain form or even exceed expectations, kind of like a Hand.

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[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

Why did the Dodgers, with the best starters ERA in baseball, acquire Yu Darvish? - Clayton Kershaw has made a start on 3 days' rest in 4 straight postseasons - Rich Hill has only pitched 120 innings once in 13 seasons - Alex Wood has only made 25 starts once - Hyun-Jin Ryu has made 16 starts the past 3 seasons - Kenta Maeda hasn't exceeded 4 IP in any of his 3 postseason starts

YU IS DUE AS HE ARRIVES IN L.A.

Yu Darvish went 0-5 in his last eight starts for the Rangers, who lost all of those games. He has won once since May 21.




DODGERS BOAST FORMIDABLE 1-2 PUNCH

Four-time AL All-Star Yu Darvish joins three-time NL Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. Darvish is 8-3 in 16 career starts vs. NL teams with a 3.07 ERA. His only decisions against other NL West clubs are one win each vs. the Diamondbacks and Padres.




DODGERS CONTINUE TRADE DEADLINE TRADITION

The Dodgers have built their pitching depth at the trade deadline. Their potential postseason rotation could consist of three starters acquired at the deadline in each of the last three seasons -- Alex Wood (2015), Rich Hill (2016) and Yu Darvish (2017).




TRADES PUT DODGERS' STOCK EVEN HIGHER

The Dodgers are an MLB-best 74-31 and were already favored to win the World Series before Monday. With their moves at the deadline, their odds got even better (previously 5-2). The Yankees, who acquired starting pitcher Sonny Gray, went from 10-1 to 7-1.

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

I think we did amazing with the deals!
My only trepidation is that we were playing so well, there was really only one way to go... I worry about trades like this knocking the wheels off our momentum, and I didn't really think we needed Darvish...

But again, for what we gave up... Why the hell not?!

It's been reported that players on MLB teams that are playing well actually want their GMs to make moves to improve their postseason prospects even if it seems at the risk of losing some of their teammates. The Dodgers players have been reported from multiple outlets to share this sentiment, which surprised me a bit given how well they've been playing. It's sounds like a feeling of the organization following through with action in order to succeed when the players feel they're doing their part. Some reporters even think it may have a detrimental "hangover" effect when an organization stands pat.

The Dodgers made perfect deadline deals in the sense that it reinforced the club's strengths as well as addressed vulnerabilities while also adding to the team without losing anyone from the Major League roster. Plus, it follows the organizational philosophy of not sacrificing the future in gross fashion for short-term incremental gains.

Kenley Jansen, for instance, has been reported to perk up at the idea of having Zach Britton setting him up, which is funny when he chafed at the Dodgers' attempts to pursue Aroldis Chapman last season. I'm not sure if he was aware of the acquisitions of Tony Watson and Tony Cingrani, but it doesn't sound like he's been enamored with the bullpen situation.

In fact, Zaidi stated during an interview that he gets feedback from the players with regards to making moves. Cingrani was noted as a pitcher some Dodger hitters actually asked about being available because of how difficult he is to face as a left-handed batter. I got to say that I love the synergy among the players, coaching staff, and even front office with all being on the same page.

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[Ranma]

Gotta be honest here.

Is there a single person that the new FO has sent out that you wish we had back?

You can look back to the start of their tenure. I don't think I can find one. Doesn't mean I think every trade was just an A+ but it's just a fact. I don't think I miss a single player they've sent out.

I agree with you. this FO is top notch, unlike Dave Dombrowski or the guy in charge of the Royals.

At the times the respective deals were made, I did not want to lose Dee Gordon, Jose De Leon, Jose Peraza, Zachary Bird, Chris Withrow, Andrew Heaney, and now A.J. Alexy. I was initially outspoken in trading away Gordon, but with the benefit of hindsight and the exception of Heaney and maybe De Leon and Withrow, I can't say that I regret the trades they were included in.

However, I still don't like the Miami component of the Wood-Olivera deal where we gave up Miami's compensatory pick after picking up Michael Morse's contract as well as Mat Latos. Obviously, I love that trade overall, but we didn't need to acquire Latos or give up the draft selection obtained from the Marlins in order to complete the swap of Hector Olivera for Alex Wood and Peraza.

Both De Leon and Heaney are injured, but I wouldn't mind at all if they were still with the Dodgers or at least used in other trades when their respective trade values were at their peaks. I'm still willing to see what Logan Forsythe has in store for us as a Dodger but giving up Heaney for Howie Kendrick is a trade I still regret was made.

I didn't notice it before you guys pointed it out, but yeah, Dombrowski has really gutted the Red Sox's once vaunted farm system,
which really shouldn't be a surprise since that was his modus operandi in Detroit, but it was a weird pairing from the start when he arrived in Boston.

[Ranma]

HAHA I totally forgot about Urias.

Jose won't be ready for most, if not all, of next season, so I wouldn't factor him into projections for now.

[Neddy]

Gotta be honest here.

Is there a single person that the new FO has sent out that you wish we had back?

You can look back to the start of their tenure. I don't think I can find one. Doesn't mean I think every trade was just an A+ but it's just a fact. I don't think I miss a single player they've sent out.

I agree with you. this FO is top notch, unlike Dave Dombrowski or the guy in charge of the Royals.

At the times the respective deals were made, I did not want to lose Dee Gordon, Jose De Leon, Jose Peraza, Zachary Bird, Chris Withrow, Andrew Heaney, and now A.J. Alexy. I was initially outspoken in trading away Gordon, but with the benefit of hindsight and the exception of Heaney and maybe De Leon and Withrow, I can't say that I regret the trades they were included in.

However, I still don't like the Miami component of the Wood-Olivera deal where we gave up Miami's compensatory pick after picking up Michael Morse's contract as well as Mat Latos. Obviously, I love that trade overall, but we didn't need to acquire Latos or give up the draft selection obtained from the Marlins in order to complete the swap of Hector Olivera for Alex Wood and Peraza.

Both De Leon and Heaney are injured, but I wouldn't mind at all if they were still with the Dodgers or at least used in other trades when their respective trade values were at their peaks. I'm still willing to see what Logan Forsythe has in store for us as a Dodger but giving up Heaney for Howie Kendrick is a trade I still regret was made.

I didn't notice it before you guys pointed it out, but yeah, Dombrowski has really gutted the Red Sox's once vaunted farm system,
which really shouldn't be a surprise since that was his modus operandi in Detroit, but it was a weird pairing from the start when he arrived in Boston.

well, to be fair tho, Andrew Heaney was never our prospect to begin with. we had him like for a couple of hours while flipping him to a third team for at the time, much needed veteran right handed second baseman. but I even argued that Heaney is much more MLB-ready and therefore as valuable to hang on to as Urias in general board.

sometimes when I watch Whitesox or Reds games,(or Marlins as well) it gives me a funny feeling, like I am watching an alternate universe's poor man's version of the dodgers. especially now Scott Schebler will be joined by SVS, they will rekindle their brief corner outfield combo of 2013 Rancho Cucamonga Quakes.

[Ranma]

What's up with Cingrani and Watson?
Get an ace and underwhelm with the bullpen help?

Kershaw
Yu
Alex
Richie

Watson is very underwhelming as a closer or even as a set up man, and Cingrani isn't good to leave in there for more than an out... but if you use them strictly as situational lefties to set a single batter out in a key moment, they should excel. I really think we are going into the playoffs with minimal 12 pitchers, and more likely IMO 13 pitchers. we will carry at least 3 bullpen lefties but I would say it is more likely to be 4. if you have 4 playoff starters and 9 bullpen arms, you can afford 2 out of 4 lefties to be a one out guys. it is early, but my guess for the post season pitching corp will be

Kershaw / Darvish / Wood / Hill as the 4 starters then

Jansen / Morrow / Baez / Field / Kenta /Ryu / Avilan / then 2 out of Brock+Ross+Tony+Tony

of course, there is a chance that Tony and Tony fall flat on their faces and neither makes the playoffs roster.

Obviously, neither Watson and Cingrani are either Hand or Britton, but the Orioles and Padres have been criticized for unreasonable demands and holding onto diminishing assets after their point of peak trade value. In this context, the Dodgers did well in not overpaying for relief arms when Friedman is notorious for his disdain for paying premium prices for the volatile commodity of relievers. Despite that, the Dodgers were reportedly in on Britton until the very end when Baltimore made him unavailable.

It's been noted that both Watson and Cingrani have actually been throwing well with high-velocity pitches while possessing at least glimpses of impressive secondary offerings. Their respective wOBA is expected to be lower than their actual stats. Their career numbers against left-handed batters are also significantly better than their season numbers, which suggests this season could be outliers that don't have much to do with injury given the aforementioned velocity each still have with their fastballs.

Both have high strikeout-to-walk rates and induce weak contact as well, but have also been victimized by giving up home runs, which could be explained by their previous home parks. Bad luck, mechanical flaws, and approaches could also be contributing to their struggles this season.

This is what Rick Honeycutt, the pitcher whisperer gets paid for. Of course, we'd ideally have more of a sure thing in Britton or Hand, but Britton himself has question marks over his health and control. At the same time, the media is speculating that the Dodgers see something in each of them and deem their flaws to be fixable and, based on the comments by Zaidi, that seems to be the case.

Zaidi noted how Watson has one of the best sinkerballs in baseball and that Cingrani has been a difficult pitcher to face even for the Dodgers players. Watson has also been cited for performing better in low-leverage situations since moving away from the closer role, which is something similar to what the organization has in mind for him.

Cingrani, in particular, has been noted for his versatility with experience as a starter and reliever and has been described as a typical Friedman and Zaidi rehab project. His problem has been that he's been leaving his pitches over the middle of the plate with regularity. Talk of refining his pitching approach for improved performance has been prevalent.

While I'm not entirely confident in their prospects, I'm optimistic and hopeful that they can be fixed. Watson will also be a free agent after the season, so he's expected to contribute right away while Cingrani still has 2 years of team control with arbitration eligibility so he can be given a tryout with the big club or possibly even be sent down to focus solely on developing further.

I like Neddy's projected pitching corps but would also include Walker Buehler into the postseason bullpen mix. Can you imagine a bullpen with Jansley closing, Morrow setting him up with Baez, Buehler, and Watson as relief options? That doesn't even include Ryu, Maeda, or Stewart.

[Neddy]

Can you imagine a bullpen with Jansley closing, Morrow setting him up with Baez, Buehler, and Watson as relief options? That doesn't even include Ryu, Maeda, or Stewart.

I didn't even think about that option. lets see.

1 Kershaw the #1 starter
2 Darvish
3 Wood
4 Hill
5 Jansen
6 Morrow
7 Baez
8 Buehler
9 Watson
10 Ryu
11 Maeda
12 Avilan ( better career split #s against LHBs than Cingriani)
*13 if we keep 13th pitcher, I think it will be McCarthy, although it is possible that with enough starters, we bring in either Dayton or Cingrioni.

[Ranma]

Andy McCullough, Los Angeles Times (8/1/17)

The players were pleased to hear about Watson and Cingrani. While Cingrani profiles as a reclamation project, Watson has pitched in the playoffs for Pittsburgh. However, neither of those deals classified as a blockbuster. When 1 p.m. approached, it appeared no further move had been made.
...

Near the back of the plane, Enrique Hernandez kept watch on his phone. When the news about Watson broke, he showed it to veteran second baseman Chase Utley, who was in front of him. Utley nodded. He nodded again when he heard about Cingrani. But when the news about Darvish appeared, Utley contorted his face in surprise — “which is a lot, for Chase,” Hernandez said.

As the minutes ticked away, closer Kenley Jansen snoozed in his seat. He was awakened by rookie reliever Edward Paredes after the deadline. Jansen heard about Darvish from AM-570 broadcaster David Vassegh. Jansen was ecstatic, but wondered why the team hadn’t added any left-handed relievers. Once he learned about Watson and Cingrani, Jansen beamed as he got up to walk down the aisle.

Earlier in July, Jansen had compared Darvish to a Ferrari. Everyone, he ventured, wants to drive one. Now the luxury vehicle belonged to the Dodgers.

“We got our Ferrari,” Jansen said. “Now we just have to put the right oil in, get it serviced, and there we go.”

'We Got Darvish': How the Dodgers' Dramatic Trade played Out

[Ranma]

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[Ranma]

Jeren Kendall's anticipated development should more than take care of losing Willie Calhoun. As I've said before, James Marinan provides a reasonable facsimile of A.J. Alexy as a pitching prospect. However, we don't have a replacement for the high-upside, long-term project of Brendon Davis, especially with the departure of Oneil Cruz to the Pirates for Tony Watson. However, Davis was a high-risk proposition given his slow speed, need for physical development, high-strikeout propensity, and raw skills.

I'm not too concerned with falling 5 spots in the farm rankings since I think the losses are easily replaceable, but I will say that we'd have been helped by drafting Alex Scherff, who is already 7th in the Red Sox system, but a lot of that has to do with the rapid depletion of their talent pool by management through trades. Still, Scherff would easily be among our top 20 prospects with a decent argument to go as high as 9th in our system.

Obviously, I still regret Gasparino passing over him, but I will concede that I could rationalize that decision if it turns out that our scouts suspect that he's been using PEDs. To be clear, there have been no rumors I'm aware of that point to this, but I just realized it as a possibility given his rapid physical development and conditioning during a single off-season of prep ball, which spiked his fastball velocity. This coupled with his proactive efforts to change schools every year does seem suspicious. Until I hear otherwise, though, I'm still going to fault our organization for passing on the opportunity to add Scherff's talent into our ranks.

Jim Callis, MLB.com (8/3/17)

10. Dodgers
Preseason Top 10 rank: No. 6
Prospects on Top 100: 5
13. Walker Buehler, RHP
28. Alex Verdugo, OF
51. Yadier Alvarez, RHP
85. Jeren Kendall, OF
88. Yusniel Diaz, OF

The Dodgers would have ranked five spots higher if they hadn't sent second baseman/outfielder Willie Calhoun, right-hander A.J. Alexy and infielder Brendon Davis to the Rangers for Yu Darvish at the Trade Deadline. Still, it's hard to argue with the Darvish pickup, and they didn't have to part with any of their elite prospects in Buehler, Verdugo and Alvarez. Los Angeles has done good work on the international market, with big-money investments in Alvarez, Diaz and outfielder Starling Heredia and relative bargains in catcher Keibert Ruiz and shortstop-turned-pitcher Dennis Santana.

Midseason Ranking of MLB's Top 10 Farm Systems

[Ranma]

Speaking of top-20 prospects, I think Ronny Brito has a higher upside than Gavin Lux right now. While both are at least solid fielders at the SS position, Brito is said to be Gold-Glove caliber. He's also a switch-hitter who could gain power as he matures. Both Lux and Brito are works in progress as hitters but Brito seems to be making more progress than Lux.

In fact, I think Brito deserves to be ranked among the top 20 prospects in the Dodgers' system instead of his current position at 22nd overall while Lux seems overrated at 9th overall right now. It seems like a matter of time before Brito surpasses Lux in the prospect rankings as both are trending in different directions.

[Ranma]

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