Boston Early Offseason in Review (HW/Slava/bondom34/Mamba4goat)

[HartfordWhalers]

One team won 49 games and got bounced in the first round. The other won 53 and made it to the eastern conference finals. LMFAO at the net rating arguement.

I think this summarizes very nicely how incredibly differently we view some things.

Right, when you take silly numbers with no context and try to extrapolate them into actual reality it shows a huge difference. But you're right, winning playoff games doesn't make you better than other teams.

One team edged out a 4-3 win of the second round before getting absolutely crushed in the ECF.
One team lost 4-2 in the first round.

I could see the exact same team having those two results no problem; basketball has some fundamental variability of results in which a team of a given quality will win a few extra games above or below its on average performance every year.

To look at that those two end results and ignore the season long data that accumulated to get there and instead declare that having snuck that much further in the playoffs before a walloping is definitive evidence of a quality gap seems so incognizant of the fundamental variability in outcomes that I find it incomprehensibly indefensible. That said, I'm glad you shared your opinion.

[Homerclease]

I think this summarizes very nicely how incredibly differently we view some things.

Right, when you take silly numbers with no context and try to extrapolate them into actual reality it shows a huge difference. But you're right, winning playoff games doesn't make you better than other teams.

One team edged out a 4-3 win of the second round before getting absolutely crushed in the ECF.
One team had an injury bug and lost 4-2 in the first round.

I could see the exact same team having those two results no problem; basketball has some fundamental variability of results in which a team of a given quality will win a few extra games above or below its on average performance every year.

To look at that those two end results and ignore the season long data that accumulated to get there and instead declare that having snuck that much further in the playoffs before a walloping is definitive evidence of a quality gap seems so incognizant of the fundamental variability in outcomes that I find it incomprehensibly indefensible. That said, I'm glad you shared your opinion.

Except the year prior the Celtics were a much healthier ball club than this years celtics. Wasn't even close.

Also never mind the fact that the net rating was drastically effected by the Celtics sitting their starters after getting up double digits only for the bench to let teams back into games due to a lack of a reliable scoring option.

Won more games, went farther in the playoffs, not a better team. Laughable. Why do they even keep score.

[claycarver]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. In an interview, Stevens singles out Horford for an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. I didn't see that he had a great game either. I noticed that Avery had an awesome game, rebounding the hell out of the ball, but Stevens spends the whole interview talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome but I notice that his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. This happened more than once. And Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell is he thinking?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

[HartfordWhalers]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. Several interviews after games, Stevens points out where Horford has an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. They show Avery had a ton of rebounds, but Stevens is talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome while his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup right then even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

I watch the team as much as any other fellow Celtic fan. Bradley wasn't actually good at defense this past year. There is a reason that the player tracking, on off splits, net team rating, and advanced stats all say he wasn't good. In general he wasn't.

[claycarver]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. Several interviews after games, Stevens points out where Horford has an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. They show Avery had a ton of rebounds, but Stevens is talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome while his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup right then even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

I watch the team as much as any other fellow Celtic fan. Bradley wasn't actually good at defense this past year. There is a reason that the player tracking, on off splits, net team rating, and advanced stats all say he wasn't good. In general he wasn't.

Ok. We just disagree then. You saw a bad defender, I saw an excellent defender doing what the team needed regardless of how it showed up on the stat sheet. But let me be clear, your advanced stats aren't serving you well. They're leading you, consistently, to misunderstand the decisions Danny and Brad are making. Feel free to keep trusting them, but you'll keep being confused by the choices Danny makes. Stevens wants a team that operates together a particular way. A way that Cousins, for instance, doesn't operate.

[HartfordWhalers]

But let me be clear, your advanced stats aren't serving you well. They're leading you, consistently, to misunderstand the decisions Danny and Brad are making. Feel free to keep trusting them, but you'll keep being confused by the choices Danny makes. Stevens wants a team that operates together a particular way. A way that Cousins, for instance, doesn't operate.

They did trade away the guy with horrific advanced stats, so in that way they didn't lead me that astray.

But we will see how Boston's defense is this next season. Will it be top 5 again? I'm happy to bet against that.

[claycarver]

But let me be clear, your advanced stats aren't serving you well. They're leading you, consistently, to misunderstand the decisions Danny and Brad are making. Feel free to keep trusting them, but you'll keep being confused by the choices Danny makes. Stevens wants a team that operates together a particular way. A way that Cousins, for instance, doesn't operate.

They did trade away the guy with horrific advanced stats, so in that way they didn't lead me that astray.

Yeah, I'm going to assume by the smiley face at the end that you aren't REALLY suggesting they traded Avery away because Danny and Brad were disappointed with his defense.

[Homerclease]

But let me be clear, your advanced stats aren't serving you well. They're leading you, consistently, to misunderstand the decisions Danny and Brad are making. Feel free to keep trusting them, but you'll keep being confused by the choices Danny makes. Stevens wants a team that operates together a particular way. A way that Cousins, for instance, doesn't operate.

They did trade away the guy with horrific advanced stats, so in that way they didn't lead me that astray.

But we will see how Boston's defense is this next season. Will it be top 5 again? I'm happy to bet against that.

Are you saying they traded Bradley because of his poor advanced defensive metrics? Because that's not the case at all.

Although I do agree with you, Bradleys defense regressed quite a bit this past year being asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. Another huge reason that Hayward was the biggest need for the Celtics. Losing Turner coming off the bench and Sullys girth down low were other major reasons for the slip on the defensive end as well

[LofJ]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. In an interview, Stevens singles out Horford for an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. I didn't see that he had a great game either. I noticed that Avery had an awesome game, rebounding the hell out of the ball, but Stevens spends the whole interview talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome but I notice that his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. This happened more than once. And Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell is he thinking?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

Yeah, Stevens is an amazing coach and an even better tactician. I expect you to win more games than you otherwise should because of him. I'm not a huge fan of Ainge as a GM, but Stevens will end up in the hall of fame. As long as he's on the payroll your team will continue to outperform expectations.

That said it is tiresome that so many Celtic fans are as defensive as they are. It is possible to read criticism and not view it as a comprehensive indictment of the organization. No person or organization is perfect, if you can't listen to and consider constructive feedback your ability to learn and progress will be stunted.

[Homerclease]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. In an interview, Stevens singles out Horford for an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. I didn't see that he had a great game either. I noticed that Avery had an awesome game, rebounding the hell out of the ball, but Stevens spends the whole interview talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome but I notice that his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. This happened more than once. And Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell is he thinking?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

Yeah, Stevens is an amazing coach and an even better tactician. I expect you to win more games than you otherwise should because of him. I'm not a huge fan of Ainge as a GM, but Stevens will end up in the hall of fame. As long as he's on the payroll your team will continue to outperform expectations.

That said it is tiresome that so many Celtic fans are as defensive as they are. It is possible to read criticism and not view it as a comprehensive indictment of the organization. No person or organization is perfect, if you can't listen to and consider constructive feedback your ability to learn and progress will be stunted.

So what you're saying is it's fine to criticize moves made by the Celtics organization but when Celtics fans disagree with the criticism and offer their own opinions in return it's tiresome? How does that work?

[HartfordWhalers]

But let me be clear, your advanced stats aren't serving you well. They're leading you, consistently, to misunderstand the decisions Danny and Brad are making. Feel free to keep trusting them, but you'll keep being confused by the choices Danny makes. Stevens wants a team that operates together a particular way. A way that Cousins, for instance, doesn't operate.

They did trade away the guy with horrific advanced stats, so in that way they didn't lead me that astray.

But we will see how Boston's defense is this next season. Will it be top 5 again? I'm happy to bet against that.

Are you saying they traded Bradley because of his poor advanced defensive metrics? Because that's not the case at all.

Although I do agree with you, Bradleys defense regressed quite a bit this past year being asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. Another huge reason that Hayward was the biggest need for the Celtics. Losing Turner coming off the bench and Sullys girth down low were other major reasons for the slip on the defensive end as well

I'm saying that given contract and performance and the need to make some move for cap reasons, Bradley was the clear guy to move versus other options.

There were a good half dozen threads on which guy does Boston move, and Bradley was my answer in all of them I posted in.

[Homerclease]

They did trade away the guy with horrific advanced stats, so in that way they didn't lead me that astray.

But we will see how Boston's defense is this next season. Will it be top 5 again? I'm happy to bet against that.

Are you saying they traded Bradley because of his poor advanced defensive metrics? Because that's not the case at all.

Although I do agree with you, Bradleys defense regressed quite a bit this past year being asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. Another huge reason that Hayward was the biggest need for the Celtics. Losing Turner coming off the bench and Sullys girth down low were other major reasons for the slip on the defensive end as well

I'm saying that given contract and performance and the need to make some move for cap reasons, Bradley was the clear guy to move versus other options.

There were a good half dozen threads on which guy does Boston move, and Bradley was my answer in all of them I posted in.

Hell has frozen over, we actually agree on something. I would argue that it has nothing to do with on court performance and everything to due with cap implications and Bradleys upcoming free agency

[HartfordWhalers]

Are you saying they traded Bradley because of his poor advanced defensive metrics? Because that's not the case at all.

Although I do agree with you, Bradleys defense regressed quite a bit this past year being asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. Another huge reason that Hayward was the biggest need for the Celtics. Losing Turner coming off the bench and Sullys girth down low were other major reasons for the slip on the defensive end as well

I'm saying that given contract and performance and the need to make some move for cap reasons, Bradley was the clear guy to move versus other options.

There were a good half dozen threads on which guy does Boston move, and Bradley was my answer in all of them I posted in.

Hell has frozen over, we actually agree on something. I would argue that it has nothing to do with on court performance and everything to due with cap implications and Bradleys upcoming free agency

That is not agreeing. If Bradley's on court performance was better I don't think he gets moved. The problem was his on court performance and his contract.

[LofJ]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. In an interview, Stevens singles out Horford for an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. I didn't see that he had a great game either. I noticed that Avery had an awesome game, rebounding the hell out of the ball, but Stevens spends the whole interview talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome but I notice that his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. This happened more than once. And Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell is he thinking?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

Yeah, Stevens is an amazing coach and an even better tactician. I expect you to win more games than you otherwise should because of him. I'm not a huge fan of Ainge as a GM, but Stevens will end up in the hall of fame. As long as he's on the payroll your team will continue to outperform expectations.

That said it is tiresome that so many Celtic fans are as defensive as they are. It is possible to read criticism and not view it as a comprehensive indictment of the organization. No person or organization is perfect, if you can't listen to and consider constructive feedback your ability to learn and progress will be stunted.

So what you're saying is it's fine to criticize moves made by the Celtics organization but when Celtics fans disagree with the criticism and offer their own opinions in return it's tiresome? How does that work?

It's tiresome because I encounter very few Celtic fans who are even willing to acknowledge that you made trade-offs this summer, i.e. the reality that you lost veteran depth to sign Hayward. It isn't unreasonable at all to think there may be negative consequences as a result. The starting lineup was improved, but depth was sacrificed to achieve that and as a result you will be relying on rookies and young players to step up.

[Homerclease]

Yeah, Stevens is an amazing coach and an even better tactician. I expect you to win more games than you otherwise should because of him. I'm not a huge fan of Ainge as a GM, but Stevens will end up in the hall of fame. As long as he's on the payroll your team will continue to outperform expectations.

That said it is tiresome that so many Celtic fans are as defensive as they are. It is possible to read criticism and not view it as a comprehensive indictment of the organization. No person or organization is perfect, if you can't listen to and consider constructive feedback your ability to learn and progress will be stunted.

So what you're saying is it's fine to criticize moves made by the Celtics organization but when Celtics fans disagree with the criticism and offer their own opinions in return it's tiresome? How does that work?

It's tiresome because I encounter very few Celtic fans who are even willing to acknowledge that you made trade-offs this summer, i.e. the reality that you lost veteran depth to sign Hayward. It isn't unreasonable at all to think there may be negative consequences as a result. The starting lineup was improved, but depth was sacrificed to achieve that and as a result you will be relying on rookies and young players to step up.

But that isn't true. They lost 3 veterans and added 3 veterans. If anything their bench is deeper

[bondom34]

I do now expect Boston to win the title this year, given their asset depth and apparently perfect offseason.

[LofJ]

So what you're saying is it's fine to criticize moves made by the Celtics organization but when Celtics fans disagree with the criticism and offer their own opinions in return it's tiresome? How does that work?

It's tiresome because I encounter very few Celtic fans who are even willing to acknowledge that you made trade-offs this summer, i.e. the reality that you lost veteran depth to sign Hayward. It isn't unreasonable at all to think there may be negative consequences as a result. The starting lineup was improved, but depth was sacrificed to achieve that and as a result you will be relying on rookies and young players to step up.

But that isn't true. They lost 3 veterans and added 3 veterans. If anything their bench is deeper

You lost half of your top 12 rotation in Bradley, Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko, Tyler Zeller, and Gerald Green. You replaced them with Hayward, Baynes, Marcus Morris, Yabusele (rookie), Zizic (rookie), and Jayson Tatum (rookie).

Based on that you did replace veterans with young players. Yes, they were end of the bench players but they were all rotation players nonetheless. Eventually, that group should hopefully be better than the guys they replaced, but if you're expecting that right off the bat you are likely going to be disappointed.

[claycarver]

I encounter very few Celtic fans who are even willing to acknowledge that you made trade-offs this summer, i.e. the reality that you lost veteran depth to sign Hayward.

How about we look at all the acquisitions and losses as if it were a trade. Is there any combination of players we lost that would have gotten us Hayward is a trade? Lets say we give up Avery, Kelly, and Amir. Does that get us Hayward? No, of course not. That's not a trade-off, that's highway robbery.

We also added Zizic, Morris and Baynes to sooth the loss of Kelly and Amir.

Oh, and we also added the 3rd pick in the draft. Again, would Avery, Kelly, and Amir get us Tatum? No, of course not. And we also added a high draft pick to move down to 3 from the 1 pick.

You see why Celtics fans aren't really seeing this offseason as a trade off? Hayward alone is worth more than all we gave up. The 3rd pick alone is worth more than all we gave up. Also, we're adding Zizic this year and we have another shot at a high pick with the trade.

I'm not trying to be a homer here, just trying to explain why we don't see this offseason as a shoulder shrugging trade off of players. And quite frankly, I think its strange that you would.

[Homerclease]

It's tiresome because I encounter very few Celtic fans who are even willing to acknowledge that you made trade-offs this summer, i.e. the reality that you lost veteran depth to sign Hayward. It isn't unreasonable at all to think there may be negative consequences as a result. The starting lineup was improved, but depth was sacrificed to achieve that and as a result you will be relying on rookies and young players to step up.

But that isn't true. They lost 3 veterans and added 3 veterans. If anything their bench is deeper

You lost half of your top 12 rotation in Bradley, Johnson, Olynyk, Jerebko, Tyler Zeller, and Gerald Green. You replaced them with Hayward, Baynes, Marcus Morris, Yabusele (rookie), Zizic (rookie), and Jayson Tatum (rookie).

Based on that you did replace veterans with young players. Yes, they were end of the bench players but they were all rotation players nonetheless. Eventually, that group should hopefully be better than the guys they replaced, but if you're expecting that right off the bat you are likely going to be disappointed.

This is where the arguement becomes disingenuous. Jerebko, Zeller and Green were towel wavers. It's like saying the Clippers lost depth because Pierce retired

[claycarver]

I do now expect Boston to win the title this year, given their asset depth and apparently perfect offseason.

That's weird because Celtics fans don't expect that at all. We just expect to be improved from last year and we expect that the addition of Tatum and a future lottery pick will make us even better going forward.

And look, when you're coming off an appearance in the conference finals, improvements are a lot harder to come by than they are if you're a 30 win team. So yeah, improving our team both this year AND in the future is quite the accomplishment.