Boston Early Offseason in Review (HW/Slava/bondom34/Mamba4goat)

[Captain_Caveman]

They were essentially the same team in net rating, going from +3.0 to +3.1.

One team won 49 games and got bounced in the first round. The other won 53 and made it to the eastern conference finals. LMFAO at the net rating arguement.

I think this summarizes very nicely how incredibly differently we view some things.

And I think your view might be a bit myopic and shortsighted.

The Celts are between 2nd and 5th best in a league where only one team matters. They are already this good despite being a rebuilding team that is playing for the long-term. If they felt like it, they could be 2nd best by a mile with a wave of their hand. That's an unbelievable, and unprecedented thing for a rebuilding team to say. All pretty similar to the Patriots being 13-3 while rebuilding their defense 4-5 years ago. And if the Ws slip at all, they are likely better-positioned than anyone else to make the moves that are a kill shot on them.

The point right now isn't to "address rebounding issues" (which you strangely seem to think Amir was good at). Again, that is something they can do with a wave of their hand. It's also incredibly unimportant in the scheme of things in a year where they are not contending, and a "weakness" they strangely share with lot of other top teams.

Even in the short-term of assessing an offseason, my concerns for Boston or anyone else are long-term. I am far less worried about roster fit/balance, rebounding and RAPM and net ratings for a work in progress. That's trees, not forest.

The bigger question is whether they are doing the structural things that will put them closer to a potential championship someday. In Boston's last two offseasons, that's absolutely the case. Adding Horford and Hayward simply with cap room they hoarded for a couple of years is pretty optimal, actually. I would say the same of getting a future likely top 5 pick just for trading down to take a guy they wanted anyways. It might work out for Philly too, but that's a phenomenal trade on our end.

Maybe you grade on the curve, I dunno. But I will take our offseason all day over Houston's. They did fine in their own right, but whether they get Melo or not, they are now all-in on pretending to contend over the next 1-2 seasons before it all falls apart. The moves Ainge had made, including this offseason, have us poised to be legit contenders for 5-10 years starting in 2018-19 or so. Rockets offseason was sizzle to our steak. Even if they finish above us this year. Even if they do better in net rating or grab more rebounds this year.

[Captain_Caveman]

Yes most of them. And he played under half that many mpg. Also Brogdon and more.

Bender, Dunn, Ingram played better than Brown? Really!

Bender yes, Dunn probably because of defense, Ingram I'm closest with.

But hey Ainge had the most assets in the league and a 50 win team to start. He got an A according to most Boston fans so I expect nothing less than a title .

You have to win a title the next season to get an A.

Good to know. Glad you hold all teams to that standard.

[Homerclease]

Wait, so your evidence is to cite an article citing this: For the postseason, Rozier is second on the Celtics in both defensive rebounding percentage and defensive rebounds per 36 minutes (for anyone to play more than 20 minutes). With Rozier on the floor, Boston has grabbed 73.9 percent of available defensive rebounds. They’ve managed to secure only 66.2 percent with him off. Good for a difference of 7.7 percent.

So the argument itself cites to Rozer's playoff rebounding percentage. And that's more persuasive than citing his total rebound percentage over the course of the season? So what's the argument - Rozier was boxing out the entire other team that allowed someone else to grab the rebound?

Yes, it's almost like a young player got better throughout the season in his first year in the rotation, remarkable I know

Or it's almost like an incredibly small sample size is a bad basis on which to judge a player. For the record, Rozier played 277 total minutes in the playoffs last year. So, you know, less than 10 games of starter level minutes.

And he's going to play more now with Bradley gone. He's just as good as Bradley was on the glass if not better IMO. Kid flies for boards in traffic better than anyone on the squad

[bondom34]

Bender, Dunn, Ingram played better than Brown? Really!

Bender yes, Dunn probably because of defense, Ingram I'm closest with.

But hey Ainge had the most assets in the league and a 50 win team to start. He got an A according to most Boston fans so I expect nothing less than a title .

You have to win a title the next season to get an A.

Good to know. Glad you hold all teams to that standard.

Are you trying to bait or just not reading? I gave a B. Boston did well, but didn't have a perfect offseason. Other teams had fewer assets and maximized them more. Good night.

[SmartWentCrazy]

[
So your reply to where was I snarky is my reply to you being snarky. Hm. Interesting.

If you want more, I'll gladly cherry pick from your earlier posts in this thread.

And I'm not writing a long post on my phone from earlier in the day, sorry but I'm at work and not doing it.

Legitimately don't know what you're referring to but ok.

And we're in near agreement grade wise because I was a B, you were an A-. I don't give many As, and there's probably 3 this offseason at most.

My entire contention with you in this thread is you choosing RAPM to make a point on Bender v Brown, ignoring nearly every other metric stating the opposite while simultaneously ignoring RAPM when evaluating the Bradley for Morris trade in favor of every other metric.

It's logically inconsistent. And being selective in your analysis.

And Bradley was actually a better rebounder.

Still nope.

[BullyKing]

Yes, it's almost like a young player got better throughout the season in his first year in the rotation, remarkable I know

Or it's almost like an incredibly small sample size is a bad basis on which to judge a player. For the record, Rozier played 277 total minutes in the playoffs last year. So, you know, less than 10 games of starter level minutes.

And he's going to play more now with Bradley gone. He's just as good as Bradley was on the glass if not better IMO. Kid flies for boards in traffic better than anyone on the squad

I'm thrilled he flies for the 1 out of 10 rebounds available that he grabs while on the floor. His total rebound percentage is less than TJ McConnell whose max vert is about 3.5 inches. A rebound is a rebound.

[bondom34]

[
So your reply to where was I snarky is my reply to you being snarky. Hm. Interesting.

If you want more, I'll gladly cherry pick from your earlier posts in this thread.

And I'm not writing a long post on my phone from earlier in the day, sorry but I'm at work and not doing it.

Legitimately don't know what you're referring to but ok.

And we're in near agreement grade wise because I was a B, you were an A-. I don't give many As, and there's probably 3 this offseason at most.

My entire contention with you in this thread is you choosing RAPM to make a point on Bender v Brown, ignoring nearly every other metric stating the opposite while simultaneously ignoring RAPM when evaluating the Bradley for Morris trade in favor of every other metric.

It's logically inconsistent. And being selective in your analysis.

And Bradley was actually a better rebounder.

Still nope.

Alright, said I was out but last post.

I was posting itt earlier. When you claim I was snarky. I was short, because I was on mobile, on a crappy phone, at work. I'm not going through that much hassle to have a post full of spelling errors.

And I don't know who I'd rather of Bender/Brown, they're close as prospects. I think Brown got a bit overrated from a couple good playoff games. But at the time of the draft, he was a reach, and that wasn't some thing we just said here, it was a popular opinion by NBA writers as well. And I also clearly said in my review I don't think AB is that good but didn't like the trade due to fit. So I'm not sure what's inconsistent when I don't think you got a worse player, but a worse fit.

And yes, AB was a better rebounder.
http://bkref.com/tiny/OeyGJ

Good night, I'll let everyone else bicker for a while. Been through this last year, not again.

[Homerclease]

Or it's almost like an incredibly small sample size is a bad basis on which to judge a player. For the record, Rozier played 277 total minutes in the playoffs last year. So, you know, less than 10 games of starter level minutes.

And he's going to play more now with Bradley gone. He's just as good as Bradley was on the glass if not better IMO. Kid flies for boards in traffic better than anyone on the squad

I'm thrilled he flies for the 1 out of 10 rebounds available that he grabs while on the floor. His total rebound percentage is less than TJ McConnell whose max vert is about 3.5 inches. A rebound is a rebound.

Yet for some reason the Celtics are a vastly superior rebounding team when he's on the court. Can't imagine why

[BullyKing]

And he's going to play more now with Bradley gone. He's just as good as Bradley was on the glass if not better IMO. Kid flies for boards in traffic better than anyone on the squad

I'm thrilled he flies for the 1 out of 10 rebounds available that he grabs while on the floor. His total rebound percentage is less than TJ McConnell whose max vert is about 3.5 inches. A rebound is a rebound.

Yet for some reason the Celtics are a vastly superior rebounding team when he's on the court. Can't imagine why

Well, if you're returning to the argument based on the playoffs, the reason why is most likely because of small sample size.

[Texas Chuck]

It's a shame that we have a few posters who have made it their mission to make discussion of the Celtics' off-season literally impossible for other Celtic fans or other posters.

Once you have expressed your distaste for everyone else's opinions on the Celtics 20 times in the thread then maybe stop and consider that you have gotten your point across and you don't need to just keep repeating it over and over again especially when in doing so your arguments get worse and worse.

I mean when we are talking about Rozier having solved the teams rebounding issues based on a joke of a sample size and a narrative about flying to the boards in traffic well we've jumped the shark. This just isn't a serious argument.

I'm sure some other Celtics fans who aren't so utterly defensive would like to contribute to this thread but have avoided it because they don't want a kick in the balls from those posters who feel like they must control the narrative at all times and can't ignore a single post that isn't 100% glowing and 100% in line with their thinking.

So I'm asking both as a Mod and as a board reg that you show other posters some respect and back way off and allow further discussion to go on. If you only want positive discussion about everything Boston I'm sure you will find lots of people to join you in that on the Boston board. And heck most people in this thread have been very positive towards the Celtics but your myopic focus on anything you perceive to be negative is preventing you from even noticing it even tho its been pointed out multiple times.

[Captain_Caveman]

Most of the criticism from Hartford and others seems to be based on advances stats. From watching the games, it seems to me that Stevens definitely believes in advanced stats, just not the stats you guys are looking at. In an interview, Stevens singles out Horford for an excellent game but the stats don't show he had a great game. I didn't see that he had a great game either. I noticed that Avery had an awesome game, rebounding the hell out of the ball, but Stevens spends the whole interview talking up Horford after the game instead.

So Avery's rebounds look awesome but I notice that his defense advanced stats look pedestrian. Reality is, Avery was killing it on defense but that didn't show up in the stats. This happened more than once. And Amir was CERTAINLY a beneficiary in the advanced stat department even though he was obviously running on fumes out there. There were a lot of those quirky things going on all season. Guys getting yanked or getting extra burn because the player was doing something Stevens needed in the lineup even though I, as a fan, was thinking, "What the hell is he thinking?"

I think Stevens is looking at a more subtle, team oriented kind of play that the advanced stats aren't catching. He's running out lineups that take advantage of team ability, often at the expense of individual stats. Stevens and Ainge know what they have and what they want AS A TEAM and they intend to use these players in a particular way that stats aren't going to catch. It's the same reason you're going to consistently underestimate how many games Stevens wins. He's not playing his guys the same way you're grading them.

That's not a put down or anything. I'm just point out that Stevens is approaching things a little bit different and it's messing with your assessment tools.

Yeah, Stevens is an amazing coach and an even better tactician. I expect you to win more games than you otherwise should because of him. I'm not a huge fan of Ainge as a GM, but Stevens will end up in the hall of fame. As long as he's on the payroll your team will continue to outperform expectations.

That said it is tiresome that so many Celtic fans are as defensive as they are. It is possible to read criticism and not view it as a comprehensive indictment of the organization. No person or organization is perfect, if you can't listen to and consider constructive feedback your ability to learn and progress will be stunted.

Meh, lots of the dudes in this thread are the least homerish, most pragmatic guys on our board.

No fellow fan has ever accused me of being a homer, I can tell you that much.

But takes like "Celts will miss Amir", "Hayward was a less than optimal use of cap room" and "Bender had a better rookie season than Jaylen" are mind-numbingly bad.

Very clear that a lot of the opinions are being weighted heavily by mock draft sites and advanced stats that they don't know how to use. Barely any utility at all in using RAPM, VORP or net ratings with 20yo rooks who averaged 10min a game over a single season. No one who understands stats would read much into those things, but they are being presented as debate-enders over much more insightful commentary.

Sorry, but no.

[Homerclease]

I'm thrilled he flies for the 1 out of 10 rebounds available that he grabs while on the floor. His total rebound percentage is less than TJ McConnell whose max vert is about 3.5 inches. A rebound is a rebound.

Yet for some reason the Celtics are a vastly superior rebounding team when he's on the court. Can't imagine why

Well, if you're returning to the argument based on the playoffs, the reason why is most likely because of small sample size.

More relevant than meaningless games in October when Rozier was a 10th man. The more he played the better rebounding squad the Celtics were.

[Captain_Caveman]

It's a shame that we have a few posters who have made it their mission to make discussion of the Celtics' off-season literally impossible for other Celtic fans or other posters.

Once you have expressed your distaste for everyone else's opinions on the Celtics 20 times in the thread then maybe stop and consider that you have gotten your point across and you don't need to just keep repeating it over and over again especially when in doing so your arguments get worse and worse.

I mean when we are talking about Rozier having solved the teams rebounding issues based on a joke of a sample size and a narrative about flying to the boards in traffic well we've jumped the shark. This just isn't a serious argument.

I'm sure some other Celtics fans who aren't so utterly defensive would like to contribute to this thread but have avoided it because they don't want a kick in the balls from those posters who feel like they must control the narrative at all times and can't ignore a single post that isn't 100% glowing and 100% in line with their thinking.

So I'm asking both as a Mod and as a board reg that you show other posters some respect and back way off and allow further discussion to go on. If you only want positive discussion about everything Boston I'm sure you will find lots of people to join you in that on the Boston board. And heck most people in this thread have been very positive towards the Celtics but your myopic focus on anything you perceive to be negative is preventing you from even noticing it even tho its been pointed out multiple times.

The thread will speak for itself soon enough.

Last year's sure did.

[BullyKing]

Yet for some reason the Celtics are a vastly superior rebounding team when he's on the court. Can't imagine why

Well, if you're returning to the argument based on the playoffs, the reason why is most likely because of small sample size.

More relevant than meaningless games in October when Rozier was a 10th man. The more he played the better rebounding squad the Celtics were.

This is just embarrassing. He didn't play more in the playoffs. He averaged 17.1 minutes per game last season. He played 16.3 minutes per game in the playoffs.

[SmartWentCrazy]

And yes, AB was a better rebounder.
http://bkref.com/tiny/OeyGJ

This link doesn't prove or support what you're arguing. It shows that Bradley had a better rebounding rate for 2017 alone on the Celtics than Morris did for 2017 on the Pistons. Any and all impacts from teammates are ignored.

[Homerclease]

It's a shame that we have a few posters who have made it their mission to make discussion of the Celtics' off-season literally impossible for other Celtic fans or other posters.

Once you have expressed your distaste for everyone else's opinions on the Celtics 20 times in the thread then maybe stop and consider that you have gotten your point across and you don't need to just keep repeating it over and over again especially when in doing so your arguments get worse and worse.

I mean when we are talking about Rozier having solved the teams rebounding issues based on a joke of a sample size and a narrative about flying to the boards in traffic well we've jumped the shark. This just isn't a serious argument.

I'm sure some other Celtics fans who aren't so utterly defensive would like to contribute to this thread but have avoided it because they don't want a kick in the balls from those posters who feel like they must control the narrative at all times and can't ignore a single post that isn't 100% glowing and 100% in line with their thinking.

So I'm asking both as a Mod and as a board reg that you show other posters some respect and back way off and allow further discussion to go on. If you only want positive discussion about everything Boston I'm sure you will find lots of people to join you in that on the Boston board. And heck most people in this thread have been very positive towards the Celtics but your myopic focus on anything you perceive to be negative is preventing you from even noticing it even tho its been pointed out multiple times.

I don't believe I've ever used the phrase "Rozier has solved the Celtics rebounding issues" but I digress.

This post is clearly singling me out for some reason, apparently I'm not allowed to disagree on Celtics related topics being a Celtics fan.

Not only that, I've agreed with HW on certain topics and even was negative on Boston about the Philly trade but whatever.

[Texas Chuck]

And he's going to play more now with Bradley gone. He's just as good as Bradley was on the glass if not better IMO. Kid flies for boards in traffic better than anyone on the squad

I'm thrilled he flies for the 1 out of 10 rebounds available that he grabs while on the floor. His total rebound percentage is less than TJ McConnell whose max vert is about 3.5 inches. A rebound is a rebound.

Yet for some reason the Celtics are a vastly superior rebounding team when he's on the court. Can't imagine why

I can help. Rozier plays almost no minutes alongside IT. And in every single one of the lineups he played meaningful minutes with that rebounded well for Boston this year included Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk. So take away a horrible rebounding guard and replace him with a very good one and add the actual best rebounder on teh C's and its easy to see why the team rebounds very well. He was also part of some lineups that didn't rebound well.

What's not so easy to see is that Rozier is actually responsible for that. In fact the evidence we do have suggests he is probably not a significant factor in the team rebounding better with him on the court but rather him benefiting from the rotations of his coach.

[Homerclease]

I'm thrilled he flies for the 1 out of 10 rebounds available that he grabs while on the floor. His total rebound percentage is less than TJ McConnell whose max vert is about 3.5 inches. A rebound is a rebound.

Yet for some reason the Celtics are a vastly superior rebounding team when he's on the court. Can't imagine why

I can help. Rozier plays almost no minutes alongside IT. And in every single one of the lineups he played meaningful minutes with for Boston this year included Marcus Smart and Kelly Olynyk. So take away a horrible rebounding guard and replace him with a very good one and add the actual best rebounder on teh C's and its easy to see why the team rebounds very well.

What's not so easy to see is that Rozier is actually responsible for that. In fact the evidence we do have suggests he is probably not a significant factor in the team rebounding better with him on the court but rather him benefiting from the rotations of his coach.

This isn't true either, Celtics went 3 guard for long stretches throughout the season. Hell the Celtics went FOUR guard in the playoffs alongside Horford.

[nykballa2k4]

I think the off-season was a B. Ultimately the team is obviously better and nothing is broken, but is the team any closer to the NBA finals? Treading water for me is a C, the big addition of Hayward and the solid looking draft makes this a B. What would have made it an A for me would have been moving Horford for a center who is a better rebounder.

No team is any closer to beating GS following the offseason. 28 teams had 0 shot, and one team that had a minute chance took a step back. Did you really give out 28 C's and B's?

The grade is relative to the team. For example, a team like the Wolves would get an A since they have changed their teams expectations in a positive way. Are they going to make the Warriors nervous? Nah. But with the changes they should make the playoffs and quite possibly get a good seed.

Nets are another team that I would give an "A" to for their creativity. They obtained good role players on bad contracts while obtaining potentially bright assets.

Lakers, IMO would get an A- from me because they have clearly made a move towards the direction they are looking for. It may not work, but they were able to use Russell to clear a ton of cap space and now they will be players for Paul George, LeBron, Melo, Wade, and the other FA's of the next couple years (if they so choose). Without moving Mozgov, I likely would have given them a B as well since, similarly to the Celtics, they didn't change much in terms of what their season expectations are and they drafted a high-potential player (who knows which guys are gonna be great and who are going to be busts?)

[Texas Chuck]

[

This post is clearly singling me out for some reason, apparently I'm not allowed to disagree on Celtics related topics being a Celtics fan.

I hate that you continually do this so I'm going to call you out on it. Stop saying things we aren't saying and then getting mad about it. It's really passive aggressive and annoying. I called out your post because it was a bad post. Sorry, we all make them and you aren't immune. You have no issue criticizing others posts non-stop, but I criticize a terrible post of yours and suddenly I'm this big bad censor not letting you have opinions.

Where has anyone stopped you from posting? Go on. Show me where your access has been denied. Oh you can't so kindly stop accusing us of censoring you. That's unfair to a Mod group who has continually allowed you to post your opinions no matter how much we agree or disagree.

And yes I am asking you and a couple other posters who aren't allowing discussion to move beyond your perspective to take a step back out of respect for the board as a whole. When you feel the need to respond to pretty much literally every post its making the thread worse for others who are turned from participating because they don't want to have to defend their posts from a group of posters who appear to be unable to hear opinions that differ from theirs.

You don't have to totally stop posting, but don't you think your opinions on this subject are pretty well known at this point itt?