Post#208 » by cl2117 » Fri Aug 4, 2017 4:44 pm
A little late to the party, but here's mine:
cl2117
(Swap your name in here)
Key Losses:
Avery Bradley
Kelly Olynyk
Amir Johnson
They'll be missed in that order. The loss of Bradley will definitely be mitigated by Hayward's arrival, but his defensive versatility and consistent shooting would have actually been outstanding compliments to Gordon's game if they had gotten the chance to play together. Looking at it as a 1 for 1 swap, the Celtics are better off, but Stevens will absolutely miss having Bradley as an option to guard opposing PGs or run dribble hand-off/curls for easy buckets to kickstart a stagnant offense. His defensive numbers were slipping, but along with Smart was part of the C's defensive identity and I think his loss in that respect will be felt.
Olynyk will similarly be missed for his versatility. Offensively he allowed Stevens to run some interesting sets and his range opened things for others. Despite being maddeningly hesitant at times, Olynyk really was an excellent role player. Despite his limitations on the other side of the floor he will still be sorely missed purely for the fact that he was tall. In that same vein so will Amir. Both of those big men were often abused by significantly better players, but on a team starved for size, merely being able to match up with an opposing team's 7 footer was enough to warrant playing time.
Losses:
Beyond the aforementioned players there isn't much else lost out from last year. Young, Jackson and Mickey never actually contributed, however they are lost "assets" that never panned out for the team.
Jerebko is the next closest thing to a loss, however in the grand scheme of things it's not very impactful. His role should be absorbed by the young guns eventually just like Gerald Green and Tyler Zeller.
Draft:
I'm on board with the Tatum pick. I don't believe that Ainge would have taken Tatum at #1. That's just spin. I do believe that Ainge didn't think the gap between Fultz and Ball/Tatum/Jackson was significant enough to warrant drafting a PG behind IT, when he could draft a better fit with similar upside and pick up an additional asset. And if that's how he felt, then I applaud him for doing so.
I had originally had them ranked Fultz, Ball, Jackson, Isaac, Tatum mostly based off of upside. However I eventually came around to Tatum pre-draft (assuming Fultz/Ball are off the board) purely because he can shoot the ball consistently. I feel like Jackson and Brown have too much overlap as developing talents (with similar upsides). Isaac I felt like was much too risky despite his more unique physical attributes, given that Ainge traded from #1 for a guy mocked as far back as #8.
I think at #3 Tatum is a totally adequate pick.
The real bright spot, as so many others have highlighted, is Semi Ojeleye. He had a first round grade from most scouts, he's got a body that is built for where the NBA is heading and he's got a skillset that I think gives him a solid floor in the NBA. After Ainge drafted and traded Deyonta Davis last year, who similarly fell into the 2nd round despite having a first round grade, I'm very pleased to see Semi end up on the roster. If there is a major trade during the season I expect him to get a chance at a significant role.
Trades:
Let's start with the obvious. #1 for #3 and LAL/SAC pick. I think the value at this stage is solid, but falls short of what you'd expect in giving up the #1. The only real problem I have with the trade is the execution. The fact that they made the trade so far in advance of the draft I think hurt Ainge's bargaining power as things continued to shake out. I'm assuming that it was done with the expectation of a potentially larger deal also prior to the draft, but the fact that no such deal ever took place is what makes me look at this trade and think that the execution was particularly poor.
Had Ainge waited and held onto the #1 until draft night I think he would have been better placed to squeeze an extra asset out of Philly (nothing significant, but maybe just the OKC 2020 pick), which would have helped the optics of the deal. In a more pipe-dream scenario maybe with #1 he could have actually made waves with a KP deal.
Jury is still out on the trade as far as a grade goes (I'd currently put it at a B+), but I think we are far enough away now that we can fairly criticize the timing and execution.
The Bradley for Morris trade was definitely a loss in terms of value. It was a necessary evil to consummate the Hayward signing and Bradley's impending FA, helps soften the blow, but still certainly a loss overall. I think the fact that it looked as if Boston was going to make an even worse trade also helped make this all look a bit rosier.
That being said I think it's an ok deal. Morris will help win now and is on a very team-friendly deal, which lasts an extra year to AB's, thereby allowing them to potential move him and get some sort of value (ideally draft asset) down the line.
Free Agency:
FINALLY Boston gets their "star" player. Really cannot complain about how this worked out, they got their #1 target and didn't have to do too much maneuvering to make it happen (despite the cap not helping them out). Hayward is a perfect fit for Stevens, but more-so than anything he is a perfect fit for the win-now/win-later time line. Gordon can be the star now, but also works as a #2 down the line if Boston were able to get someone from that next tier of NBA talents (AD/Durant type guys).
Baynes is a really nice signing. His veteran presence mixed with the incredibly raw Zizic coming over should be enough to replicate at least what Amir/Zeller/Olynyk gave the C's as far as size up-front. He's no more than a band-aid, but a cheap well-fitting one nonetheless. Realistically he might not be as good as Amir Johnson, but at a certain point Amir himself was just a hustle 7 footer, which is what Baynes' floor is.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
I would roll out:
IT/Rozier
Smart/Brown
Hayward/Tatum/Ojeyele/Nader
Crowder/Morris/Yabusele
Horford/Baynes/Zizic/Theis
Your 3's and 4's will largely be interchangeable (Hayward/Tatum/Crowder/Morris) so I think it matters little who is where, but just look for the best matchup. Similarly I think Brown/Hayward/Ojeyele/Smart could all switch at the 2/3. Lastly I expect to see a number of lineups with Baynes starting at C and Horford at PF, which would allow the C's to play with more size.
Needs:
Rebounding
Rim protection
Combo guard to backup PG/SG
A top 10 player
Rebounding was their biggest problem last year and I think they are arguably even worse this year having lost Olynyk and Johnson, but also Bradley who was at times our best rebounder despite being in the backcourt. Baynes, Zizic and Tatum should help mitigate that some, but even then you're just getting back to sub-par rather than G-league level. I don't see this team beating the Cavs until they've resolved those rebounding problems (Love and TT will be too dominant even if Kyrie goes elsewhere for peanuts).
On that same note, they still severely lack rim protection, which is nothing new but again they are arguably worse than last year. Zizic could potentially be big in plugging these frontcourt holes, but he looks to be at least months (if not years) away from contributing in a meaningful way.
I think it's pretty clear from the depth chart that they are in need of some depth in the back-court. Particularly at the 2 guard spot, but also at the point, especially in light of IT's playoff injury. A combo guard who can sufficiently be a placeholder in both spots would be ideal.
Lastly they need a SUPERstar. Gordon is a star, but whoever said he is more Horford than Durant, is spot on. I think he gives them a puncher's chance in any game, but in order to be a real threat and not just potential Cinderella they'll need a Durant level talent. Hayward may be the first step on the road towards that, but the main point is that he is NOT that.
Additional Thoughts:
What a year to be a Celtics fan!
This team will basically experience the full-spectrum of the NBA fan experience this year: competing for a championship, landing a top free agent, being an underdog, rooting for a tank (thanks Brooklyn), watching a top draft pick develop and almost everything in between. It's been a lot of fun and as we start to reach the precipice of this rebuild I think it's important to bask in the unique experience that the C's have been in for that last couple years and at least one more until the BKN gravy train runs out.
If you had told me at the deadline last year that the C's would win the lottery, land Gordon Hayward and not trade the 2018 BKN pick in the process, I'd be ecstatic. Ainge not pulling the trigger for a star and pulling the trigger on trading #1 has jaded me a bit, but there is really nothing to complain about given where we started and where we are now.
Projected Win/Loss: 54-28
I expect struggles at the start of the season and I expect a mid-season shake-up that will also have teething issues. Their front-court I feel like was a major limiting factor last year and I don't see much changing there. Furthermore I think playing SF from 2-4 might work out in the end, but it's going to take a while to develop so it's going to be tough to find that groove. My homer heart says 60, but I could realistically see them with a record that falls below last year's if injuries occur.
I expect an ECF appearance though
Off-Season Grade: A-
If you had told me that this was the roster we'd end up with at the end of the offseason at any point last year I would have classed that as an A+.
The main reason I'm downgrading it is because of some of the missed opportunities to elevate this team even more at an incredibly reasonable cost. Particularly with what PG went for and his recent comments about potentially not being LA or bust, I think you look at that and say that maybe they missed an opportunity.
That brings it down to an A for me. And then because I think it's pretty clear Ainge blew the timing of the #1 for #3 trade and lost the AB for Morris trade (despite it being a necessity), brings them down another notch to A-.
From an entertainment perspective I give them an A+ though. It's been entertaining start to finish and I'm really excited for the season to kick-off.
UHar_Vinnie wrote:If you don't lean forward while hugging a dude, you are gonna have a wiener touching incident. You know this.
