Toronto Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Cory Joseph
Patrick Patterson
Losses:
DeMarre Carroll
PJ Tucker
Draft:
#23 O G Anunoby
Trades:
Jeff Weltman (FO) for 2018 2nd from Orlando (worst of Orlando and LAL 2nd)
Hamilton for Carroll, '18 1st (lotto protected through '23, if not 2nd), '18 2nd (see above)
Corey Joseph to Indiana for rights to Emir Preldzic (not technically a S&T for CJ Miles)
Free Agency:
Lowry 3/100m
Ibaka 3/65m
C.J. Miles 3/25
Anunoby rookie scale
Alfonzo McKinnie 2 year min contract (100k gtd)
Kennedy Meeks 1 year min
Malcolm Miller two-way contract.
Lorenzo Brown two-way contract.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: C.J. Miles, Bruno Caboclo, OG Anunoby, Alfonzo McKinnie
PF: Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl, Kennedy Meeks
HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
Cory Joseph
Patrick Patterson
Also DeMarre Carroll
But not PJ Tucker
Deciding who was a key loss and who was just a loss for Toronto was one of the tougher choices across the board I have seen doing these. So, a quick word on how I pick them. It is about what a player has brought to a team, and not so much a statement on what they will do going forward elsewhere (Amir Johnson was an example of this, to some Celtic fans chagrin). And it absolutely matters if that production is replicable by someone else or not; if the slack will be immediately picked up internally then it is hard to call it a key loss. Also, not all key losses are a bad thing, sometimes you need to make those choices for one reason or another.
Looking at minutes per game, here is who Toronto lost:
DeMarre Carroll 26.1 (4th on team)
P.J. Tucker 25.4 (6th on team)
Cory Joseph 25.0 (7th on team)
Patrick Patterson 24.6 (8th on team)
Alternatively, looking at total minutes played here is who Toronto lost:
Cory Joseph 2003 (4th on team)
DeMarre Carroll 1882 (5th on team)
Patrick Patterson 1599 (6th on team)
P.J. Tucker 609 (13th on team)
Tucker I ruled out from being a key loss on the lack of volume during the regular season to get Toronto to where they were, especially considering the playoffs didn't have any further success. Tucker didn't offer a unique skill set such that between Miles and Carroll (yes I know he is gone), Tucker was very replicable.
Joseph seemed the opposite and thus the most clearly a key loss to me. He soaked up the most minutes overall, and the drop off is to a very young and unproven backup pg (FVF or Wright). While not an efficient scorer, Joseph was the type of guy you could count on to not cost you games, and sending him out for what ultimately became Emir Preldzic's rights seems a poor use of assets.
Patterson snuck into the key losses due to his ability to space the floor alone, and offensive versatility for a team that lacked that and relied primarily on mid range scoring. Yes, technically Tucker's 40% 3 point shooting was better than Patterson's 37%, but Tucker's was a small sample and career outlier. Carroll actually hit slightly more 3's a game, but at a much lower 34% rate.
Carroll is still a plus defender who has the type of body that you want to match up against Lebron as a big sf grown into the pf position. That alone seems like something worth keeping if you are trying to get out of the East. Who will guard Lebron now? I don't like the options nearly as much when looking at: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell, C.J. Miles and Serge Ibaka. OG Anunoby as a rookie might be the best bet which stresses the issue nicely. If Tucker were still there, he would be a decent option (after all, no one is a Lebron stopper) and maybe then Carroll might not be a key loss. But losing both of the players made one a key loss for me. And Carroll hitting 1.5 3's a game (4th on team on season, 3rd if you discount Ross as he was gone) helped provide some spacing even if it at 34% it isn't the best offensive option.
Losses:
See above
Draft:
I'm sure this pick is liked elsewhere, but I'm skeptical. Here is what I said pre-draft when he was getting debated at the back end of the lottery and if not the high teens:When you combine the injury with questions about what his game/position really are it doesn't shock me. There is the pesky fact that he cannot even hit a ft consistently in two years and shot poorly from 3 his second year in more shots, and then suddenly that small sample freshman year shooting from 3 looks like a mirage and you have a guy with a broken shot and bad results. Add in no handle, bad passing skills,and you have a pf/sf tweener that can guard the perimeter but cannot score from either place necessarily in the NBA, and doesn't rebound like a pf either. And guarding the perimeter relies on athleticism that a year long injury might impact.
The safe outcome of OG is an energy bench tweener that is similar to a Quincy Acy type and just not all that incredibly valuable. Maybe thats too harsh, I like Acy more than most, so a Harkless or Aminu, but without the outside shooting.
Yeah, I'm fine with OG falling although if someone wants to take the flip side and argue that he could be the next Kawhi and just needs his shot entirely different I will listen.
OG seems like a guy that should get picked at 27-30 to me, and everyone will call it a steal for the Spurs.
Normally I like to pitch an alternative pick, but at #23 it felt like everyone had flaws. So, my pitch is doing a Carroll deal with #23 instead of the '18 1st. Maybe that gets rejected. Maybe it requires a ton of 2nds added to do it. But I'm not convinced in the pick anymore than I am that Semi Ojeleye wouldn't have been an equal pick and was available 10 picks later. And Philly was trying to trade up with their 2nds before using the OKC 1st to do so. So a trade s what I would have liked.
Trades:
A very nice 2nd from Orlando for a front office guy must fans have never known about feels a nice move. It is lessened by not being able to trade with Orlando for a year however. What if a Vucevic for Val deal were to make sense? Still, that seems a small fault on a nice win.
I loved the Carroll deal for the Nets and hated it for Toronto (and for Sac and Indy and everyone else that didn't do it but should have). Carroll still can play. Moving him just to clear tax room will always feel like a basketball loss. But sometimes you win on finances and have to take that as ownership has goals that need to be taken into account. But did Toronto do that?
Toronto had to make tough choices and they picked:
Lowry 31m a year = yes
Ibaka 21.6m a year = yes
Carroll 15m a year = no to the tune of a 1st and a 2nd and eating 3m in deadweight
Miles 8.3m a year = yes
Tucker 8m a year = no
Joseph 7.6m a year = no
Patterson 5.5m a year = no
To rearrange what Toronto did requires either:
1) Pay the tax
2) Not keeping one of Lowry/Ibaka
3) Still dumping Carroll
Lets look at actually paying the tax. Keeping Carroll would have been 6m more salary than bringing in Miles and stretching Hamilton next season, so we are talking about 9.25m in tax plus the lost payouts.
If Toronto had dumped #23 and Bruno, in favor of two rookie minimum salaries they would have shaved 2.4m off that 6m and be down to ~5.5m in luxury tax. And trading #23 and Bruno for 2nds/cash could have brought in cash to cut that further.
If you are bringing back Lowry and Ibaka at top dollar, I wouldn't cheap out the way they did versus just keeping Carroll. An extra playoff round could make up the lost money and you only have so many windows to sneak into a Finals loss to the Warriors.
Barring that, how much worse would it have been to keep Carroll and Patterson and the 1st and the early 2nd and let Ibaka walk? I'm thinking thats my second choice. Toronto is the new Atlanta, a 45-50 win team that won't ultimately get anywhere and needs to figure out how long it can hold that plateau before descending and how best to leverage their older players as they leave. Getting thin and expensive and giving up a future pick seems like it is setting up for a less than graceful fall.
Along those lines, getting nothing for Joseph seems suboptimal. Was there really no team that would have given a 2nd and cap space? Maybe not but it feels like there should have been. Unfortunately Toronto really financially boxed themselves into all these decisions and had to take the best salary dump they could find on moving over 22m in salary for just next year. Thats never going to be easy.
But they didn't resolve it long term either. The team just feels older, thinner and more reliant on suddely very expensive Lowry/Derozan/Ibaka. When Powell is a free agent what do they do?
Free Agency:
Covered already, but Toronto looks perfect for leaving as GM. Superficially fine but capped out, aging, and already being forced to make tough decisions and declining as a result most likely.
Either staying the course more expensively or starting to blow it up made more sense to me, but they stayed close to what has worked. Without Lowry the team would be in an entirely different space, and that did feel premature. Still, I would be putting out Lowry trade feelers in December even.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Needs:
Everything to break perfect in the playoffs so they can sneak further
Jonas to look good
OG Anunoby to look solid and keep the cheap talent influx incoming
A long term plan
Additional Thoughts:
This review felt particularly negative for a team that brought back its two best free agents at deals that were reasonable even if a lot of money, and managed to achieve their financial goals. Toronto has been masterful in a lot of moves so maybe the need for a move in the future isn't as bad as I think it is, Lowry ages gracefully and Ibaka reverses his steady decline.
I try to include a trade in each of these, and here I'm going to go for chaos:
Lowry and Valanciunas for Drummond, Jackson and Johnson
~43m going each way, with each team shaking it up.
Projected Win/Loss: 46-38 Maybe too pessimistic but maybe not?
Off-Season Grade:C- This felt exactly like a C-.
Slava wrote:Slava’s Toronto Raptors Review
Key Losses:
Patrick Patterson
PJ Tucker
Patterson will be missed here. He ranked 9th amongst PFs in RPM last season and featured in 3 out of the Raptors’ 5 best line ups by net rating for 5 man units with at least 50 minutes of run in the regular season.
Tucker played himself into a very good contract and likely a better situation in Houston so it was unlikely Toronto could afford to bring him back either while also paying Lowry and Ibaka. Toronto would be hoping that Siakam, Nogueira etc can step into the void left at the back up PF minutes when Ibaka slides to center and more likely Anunoby will be groomed into it as well.
Losses:
Corey Joseph
DeMarre Carroll
Tucker was brought in to replace the role expected of Carroll, which he did with much élan. Health not permitting Carroll never got going in Toronto, so with the cash squeeze, the salary dump was inevitable.
The loss of Joseph leaves them a little light at back up PG, especially with Lowry getting older and having a knack for picking up a niggling injury or two late in the season but they have Wright who Casey may or may not trust and he also made a statement about running Derozan at back up PG, which seems ill-advised to say the least but the idea appears to be to round out a 3 guard rotation between DD/Lowry and Powell to shoulder the bulk of the burden at the two guard spots.
Draft:
I love the Anunoby pick and he was probably my favorite non-lottery prospect in this draft. If not for the ACL tear he might have gone much higher. He has the fleetness of a wing and the frame of a PF which likely enables him to be an absolutely ideal fit as a difference maker in modern NBA defensive schemes. His shot is a work in progress and that will likely determine the level of playing time he will receive in his rookie year but if long term health is not an issue he will turn into a much envied asset around the league.
It would however be imperative that he doesn’t show any long term effects of the ACL surgery as Toronto has a pick going out to Brooklyn next year and no very good means of adding to their reserves at least for a year into their 3 year window.
Trades:
I never understand why organizations would trade picks for an executive who is not even a GM or a coach so Toronto did well to produce a minor asset out of thin air here.
Raptors did reasonably well to get out of Carroll’s contract with the luxury tax squeeze after paying their starting back court and Ibaka with a lotto protected 1st and a 2nd. I’m just surprised it happened with the Nets after Ujiri’s famous “**** Brooklyn” episode. So cheers to professionalism.
I would have thought an asset would be required to dump the ~$15M owed on Joseph so that was a good deal as well.
Free Agency:
It kind of became logical to pay Lowry after paying Derozan last summer. Ujiri did quite well to keep the contract length at 3 years and not gamble on Lowry’s health and motivation well into his 30s.
Same with Ibaka here, albeit a little younger (atleast on paper) he was showing more signs of wear and tear from his lofty status as a stretch 4 who was also an absolute terror on defense in his prime. He should still have enough left in the tank for 3 good quality years and eventually make a move to full time center.
CJ Miles is a good pick up as well as the starting 3 to space around DD isos or Lowry/Ibaka pick and pops. More importantly the contract duration lines up with their timeline.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
The 2nd unit looks kind of shaky. In line up sans Lowry last season, the Raptors were 6.5 pts per 100 possessions worse off on offense and 1.6 worse off on defense. Now with the loss of some experienced depth, expect that gap to widen. Line ups with DD as the nominal PG could do even worse.
Needs:
Good health for Lowry, Anunoby and Ibaka
An inevitable trade for one or both young centers to replenish the depth
Some reliable production from the reserve unit
Additional Thoughts:
You kind of get the feeling that Ujiri has chosen to tread water owing to lack of any other options. A tear down rebuild was not an avenue, having given a massive contract to Derozan and the extremely loyal fan adulation and involvement they receive each year from playoff runs. They would need a break to make the conference finals as I think they are not better than either Cleveland or Boston as presently constructed. With a couple of breaks going the other way, Wiazards might have their number and Spoelstra might be able to out coach Casey in the playoffs with a lesser talented roster.
Projected Win/Loss: 49-33
Kevin Pelton wasn’t very kind to them but I’ll be more generous. Playing in the morass of the East, they should be able to pad the wins.
Off-Season Grade: B+
Getting a Valanciunas trade done with someone like Atlanta or Chicago would have helped push this even higher.
bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Review
Key Losses/Losses:
Patterson and Tucker will hurt a bit to me, Joseph is replaceable. I do think the defense takes a bit of a hit here, but Wright seems pretty ready for bigger minutes. I question wing defense a good bit, and I'm not sure the big rotation is good enough defensively right now.
Draft:
If he's healthy OG could be a help toward previously mentioned wing defense, but the question is how much a rook can handle and if he's healthy. I like the pick though, good pick up and good value.
Trades:
Miles to me was a good get given Joseph was no longer needed, should be a solid starter even though not spectacular. They also did a good job of moving some money they just couldn't handle any more with Carroll and given how poorly he played at times, I like the move for them as well.
Free Agency:
I'm not going to lie, I thought both Ibaka and Lowry would have gotten longer deals than this so in that regard I absolutely love both of these deals for the Raps. Kept the core but didn't lock it up for the full 4 or 5 years. Miles as stated earlier was a good get too, I was overall really pleasantly surprised how well all these did.
Needs:
Another defensive big (maybe a Val trade?) and maybe a wing defender if OG's not ready just yet.
Additional Thoughts:
I thought they did a really solid job of not using up too much long term cash and shedding enough salary to make this offseason a full success. I think some of the losses will certainly hurt and do actually expect a slight step back, but given track record I could see Ujiri pulling a move to improve this roster to where it was a year ago. I have to think Val is gone at some point, and the really could use a defender at the 4/5 after Ibaka and maybe an extra wing who's reliable right now. This offseason wasn't a full on success to me, but it was better than average and very solid.
Projected Win/Loss:48-34
Off-Season Grade: B
cl2117 wrote:cl2117’s Toronto Raptors Review
Key Losses:
Patrick Patterson
DeMarre Carroll
Splitting the "key losses" and the "losses" was indeed hard for the Raptors. I put them into 2 categories.
Depth loss: Patterson (key),Joeseph
Asset loss: Carroll (key), Tucker
Patterson ends up being the key depth loss because, unless they are projecting a much larger jump for Siakam than I am, they've got a hole for themselves at PF with his departure. It's also a more painful loss because of what a reasonable deal he ended up signing. His defensive versatility and shooting will be missed (particularly if Siakam steps into his minutes).
For the asset loss it goes to Carroll. Having to give up a first and a 2nd to get out of the rest of his contract stings. Particularly because it could be argued that he is a key on court loss as well given what he brought defensively in a conference that goes through LeBron. How frequently to do you have to pay to dump a key on court player? He will be replaced by CJ Miles though, which is why I still class it as an asset loss as opposed to depth loss, but both may be apt.
Losses:
Cory Joseph
PJ Tucker
I have Cory Joeseph as just a loss as opposed to a key loss since Delon Wright seems poised to take over as a backup PG. I think that's a downgrade, but not huge. The big thing is what will happen if Lowry misses time. I think then it changes the complexion of Joeseph's loss as Wright will struggle with heavy minutes and they've no depth.
Tucker just wasn't around long enough to be a key loss. They paid the price of a rental for him and he ended up being one.
Draft:
I think OG is a really good value pick at #23. It's unfortunate that he may miss significant time next season because I think his defense could actually be incredibly useful in the wake of Demarre's departure. I think his defensive potential is really appealing and love his athleticism, but if I had one criticism it's that I don't like his ceiling based off his offensive limitations.
I don't think that's a knock on the pick because they're picking at #23 and there aren't too many obvious high-ceiling prospects available that aren't also lottery tickets. But my concern for the Raptors is trying to identify how they'd take the next step as a team after now committing all this money to bring their guys back. It's going to have to be through the draft most likely and that'll require taking some risks.
Trades:
I love FO trades, especially when you're on the receiving end of the assets.
I'm surprised they couldn't get more for Cory. I know moving him was necessary for their other moves, but surely 2nds and space was a possibility? I think Joseph could be on the Pat Beverly level of backup PGs with a floor of competent backup.
I don't like the DMC trade for the Raps. As I said in the losses, it just feels like a really bad situation where you're paying to dump a guy who can actually contribute for you. I know that he was falling out of the rotation and it might have been the prudent organizational move to just move on, but that just makes the value feel particularly poor.
Free Agency:
Before I criticize what they did in FA, I'd like to point out that I don't really have an alternative solution that is guaranteed to make them better now or in the future.
At the end of the day they spent $165m to bring back Ibaka and Lowry and have the same exact core as last year. That feels like moving towards the treadmill. Hard ceiling barring a Cinderella story run through the playoffs, not many young assets that look like they'll break out to take them to the next level, no pick next year.
I don't mind the Lowry or Ibaka deals at all. I like that they're 3 years to increase flexibility. I just don't think it's done anything other than maintain the status quo while losing future assets (DMC deal, Joseph).
CJ Miles is a nice pickup at the price they got him, but the round robin of dumping DMC and moving Joseph makes it feel like they actually didn't add much if anything in the grand scheme of things.
I don't take umbrage with any of the deals, but wonder whether maintaining the course they're on was the best decision.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Depth feels like a strong word.
Needs:
OG to really outperform expectations
Kyrie to be dealt out West
To make a call on their future before they board the treadmill
The biggest takeaway for me from their off-season is that they've put themselves in a spot where they have very few avenues to drastically improve. OG is a good value pick, but not likely to be a breakout player. They need him to buck those odds because I just don't see many other options for them to get better than last year's squad.
On the plus side for the Raps the Kyrie drama has really saved them to some extent in my eyes. They seemed like a team that can't get out of the ECF in the best case scenario, but now that the Cavs may become more vulnerable than ever they still have a puncher's chance of going further. I think they're still on the level of the Wiz and C's, but just can't see them getting past last year's version of the Cavs. Kyrie moving changes all of that and potentially validates bringing the gang back for another go rather than moving towards a rebuild/reload strategy.
That reprieve may only be brief though. I think they've taken a step back after this summer so even though they may still be competitive with the C's and Wiz, how long that will last is debatable. They need a clear path to follow for a post-LeBron world.
Additional Thoughts:
I think the Cavs drama benefits the Raps the most in the East. Everyone has a better chance at knocking them off, but the C's are going to get flack for not making a move for PG/Butler now that Cleveland is mortal, whereas the Raptors get an improved chance of advancing in this year's playoffs without having improved their team.
Projected Win/Loss: 48-36
I think they take a step back after last year. Injuries are going to show holes in their depth, but when healthy they'll still be at the top of the East.
Off-Season Grade: C-
I think the did slightly worse than maintaining the status quo. The fact that they had to give up future assets just to rearrange a roster that isn't much better is what gets them the minus as opposed to a straight C.
