RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #28

[penbeast0]

Yeah, there comes a point where I'm considering the likes of Jamaal Wilkes and Paul Silas and drinking the Red Kool-Aid starts sounding like a possibility.

[Doctor MJ]

Vote: Steph Curry
Alt: Kevin Durant

I've spoke before about Currys edge over Durant. To me it's a virtually unique case where Durants actions in leaving the team built around him to join the one built around Curry make it basically impossible to proclaim he's achieve more than Curry to this point. That can change in the future, but since at this point Curry has the peak impact edge too, it's a strangely easy choice.

So easy in fact it would be logical to think I should have others ahead of Durant too...but I find myself siding with KD.

Pippen is a reasonable guy to bring up, but the knock on Durant amounts to criticizing him for not being better able to handle the alpha role, so lifting betas ahead of him seems mildly absurd to me.

I was tempted to give Rick Barry the nod, but again it seems a bit absurd to talk about doing more for a franchise when Barry too left his team in a lurch.


All this makes me think I need to reflect on whether I've been too critical of Durant to this point, but I still feel settled about where Curry and Durant stand next to each other right now.


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Idk, this seems like an emotional take to me. I haven't been following the project really so I dont know if you've spoken on this, but you think Durant joining Curry's team makes up for 3-4 more elite years? If Durant was the one with two amazing portable pieces and Curry had to contend with some other fellow for the ball and the shots you don't think we could see a role reversal here?

This is a project of what's happened not what might have happened.

Curry has certainly had some luck go his way, on the other hand he was underestimated from day one, he wasn't handed the keys to a franchise and given years to figure out how to play alpha well (Durant was ineffective his first two years but still had the blessing of everyone in the organization), and he didn't get to play with teammates as talented as Westbrook and Harden, and yet still he's been more impactful than Durant and done so on more successful teams.


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[Doctor MJ]

Not sure yet who I'm going with here, but i am sticking by Durant over Curry. KD simply has more seasons at that superstar/fringe superstar level, and i don't think Curry's edge in peaks is very big in fact i tend to think their top 3-5 seasons are pretty comparable.

Take it for what you will but Curry destroys Durant in RAPM stats from my recollection.


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[JoeMalburg]

Not sure yet who I'm going with here, but i am sticking by Durant over Curry. KD simply has more seasons at that superstar/fringe superstar level, and i don't think Curry's edge in peaks is very big in fact i tend to think their top 3-5 seasons are pretty comparable.

Take it for what you will but Curry destroys Durant in RAPM stats from my recollection.


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Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

[Doctor MJ]

Not sure yet who I'm going with here, but i am sticking by Durant over Curry. KD simply has more seasons at that superstar/fringe superstar level, and i don't think Curry's edge in peaks is very big in fact i tend to think their top 3-5 seasons are pretty comparable.

Take it for what you will but Curry destroys Durant in RAPM stats from my recollection.


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Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

You don't ask for much of ya?

I'm not able or willing to put that much effort into convincing people at this time, though many can attest I have put in more than my share in the past.

Just a few key points:

1) Reliability is specifically the weakness of +/- stats

2) but box score stats lack validity and that makes them not nearly good enough to insist on using exclusively.

3) and +/- stats excel in validity with proper sample size so they are an ideal compliment to box score

4) when you've been around the block a few times with +/- stats you can glean an awful lot with them.

5) Currys non box score impact is pretty clear, no? He distorts floor space like no one else.



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[trex_8063]

Thru post #45:

Kevin Durant - 5 (dhsilv2, pandrade83, penbeast0, scabbarista, trex_8063)
Stephen Curry - 2 (Doctor MJ, twolves97)
Scottie Pippen - 2 (2klegend, RCM88x)


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[JoeMalburg]

Take it for what you will but Curry destroys Durant in RAPM stats from my recollection.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

You don't ask for much of ya?

I'm not able or willing to put that much effort into convincing people at this time, though many can attest I have put in more than my share in the past.

Just a few key points:

1) Reliability is specifically the weakness of +/- stats

2) but box score stats lack validity and that makes them not nearly good enough to insist on using exclusively.

3) and +/- stats excel in validity with proper sample size so they are an ideal compliment to box score

4) when you've been around the block a few times with +/- stats you can glean an awful lot with them.

5) Currys non box score impact is pretty clear, no? He distorts floor space like no one else.



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Maybe it was a lot more work than I realized, but my point was that if you used those numbers to make an argument and posted the rest of the data for context, it would essentially destroy your argument. I'll take your word that it's sort of like a magic eye painting and if I look long enough I'll eventually see something meaningful I can make sense of. But for now all I see is extremely unreliable data that makes it hard for me to determine anything except that I shouldn't believe I can use it to determine anything at all.

[Winsome Gerbil]

Okay, I'm going to try to get back to making fuller arguments here soon. Maybe even this thread.

In any case:
#28 - Kevin Durant
#29 - Scottie Pippen

[Hornet Mania]

This was a really tough one. Baylor has been my alt vote for awhile, but the difference between Pippen/Durant/Kidd/Curry (my next few guys) isn't very large. I tend to side with the guys who have completed resumes, and Pippen was more impressive imo than Kidd so I'll give Scottie my alt vote. Next two up will be Durant and Curry in some order, most likely followed by Kidd.

28. Elgin Baylor
Alt: Scottie Pippen

[Dr Positivity]

Reed's peak is pretty awesome. He is 1st team all defensive center while being one of the best floor spacing bigs in the league. So his non boxscore value looks really high, almost like KG and Draymond. Then on top of that very good boxscore - enough to lead the league in WS in 69 and be 3rd in 70.

Also I'm not sure his 1970 Finals MVP is that ridiculous. I would give it to Frazier as I value missed GP, but for one thing through the first 4 games Reed was running away with Knicks MVP by averaging 32/15 and outplaying Wilt, while Frazier was at 13/9/8.5. Then in the 7th game beyond the inspiration factor, even though he only scored 4 points he had a meaningful role in the game cause of defense - Wilt only scored 4 points and had 4 TOVs when defended by him. It is also said he set picks and blocked out great that night. Wilt scored 45 in Game 6 when Reed didn't play so the contrast when they got Reed back would have looked even better.

[oldschooled]

Already stated my claims for Curry since like 23rd so...

Vote: Curry
Alt: No Tippin Pippin

[dhsilv2]

Not sure yet who I'm going with here, but i am sticking by Durant over Curry. KD simply has more seasons at that superstar/fringe superstar level, and i don't think Curry's edge in peaks is very big in fact i tend to think their top 3-5 seasons are pretty comparable.

Take it for what you will but Curry destroys Durant in RAPM stats from my recollection.


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Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

As long as you assume the stats aren't there to rank players or rate players, but to add additional insight, they're great. You also have to make sure you're comparing apple to apples. A bench player who's high on the list should not be compared to a starter for example.

[andrewww]

Vote: Kevin Durant
Alternate: Stephen Curry

As stated previously, you have a walking mismatch with KD who imo is the best talent remaining. Curry has Shaq-like gravity from beyond the arc, but does not have the longevity yet.

[JoeMalburg]

Take it for what you will but Curry destroys Durant in RAPM stats from my recollection.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM mobile app

Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

As long as you assume the stats aren't there to rank players or rate players, but to add additional insight, they're great. You also have to make sure you're comparing apple to apples. A bench player who's high on the list should not be compared to a starter for example.

The impression I get is that they are all very circumstantial. Put a player in the right position, use him to his strengths and surround him with other good players and you'll see a high RAPM. It's not that I don't see any value in it, but in a lot of instances it seems to be the most influential metric on votes, which does make sense to me yet.

[rebirthoftheM]

Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

As long as you assume the stats aren't there to rank players or rate players, but to add additional insight, they're great. You also have to make sure you're comparing apple to apples. A bench player who's high on the list should not be compared to a starter for example.

The impression I get is that they are all very circumstantial. Put a player in the right position, use him to his strengths and surround him with other good players and you'll see a high RAPM. It's not that I don't see any value in it, but in a lot of instances it seems to be the most influential metric on votes, which does make sense to me yet.

It's somewhat the PER of the modern day for this sub-forum. I'm not sure if you traversed internet forums during the mid-late 00s, but PER was the end/all be all stat that people used to end debates.

I think though RAPM and on/off haven't gotten the same level of acceptance. Which is a positive development IMO. Wholesale rejection is obviously naive, but too much use can also get you lost.

[JordansBulls]

Vote: Clyde Drexler (led team to the finals twice as the man, was the leader of win shares on a team that won the title in 1995). Was on the Original Dream Team, 10x allstar

2nd Vote: Kevin Durant

[dhsilv2]

As long as you assume the stats aren't there to rank players or rate players, but to add additional insight, they're great. You also have to make sure you're comparing apple to apples. A bench player who's high on the list should not be compared to a starter for example.

The impression I get is that they are all very circumstantial. Put a player in the right position, use him to his strengths and surround him with other good players and you'll see a high RAPM. It's not that I don't see any value in it, but in a lot of instances it seems to be the most influential metric on votes, which does make sense to me yet.

It's somewhat the PER of the modern day for this sub-forum. I'm not sure if you traversed internet forums during the mid-late 00s, but PER was the end/all be all stat that people used to end debates.

I think though RAPM and on/off haven't gotten the same level of acceptance. Which is a positive development IMO. Wholesale rejection is obviously naive, but too much use can also get you lost.

Well I'm a huge fan of PER and I think it greatly improved everyone's understanding of basketball. I think people forget how bad we as fans were back when points per game was legit the metric that dominated most conversations. PER improve our "Eye test" because it changed the conversation from per volume to understanding efficiency and even got better feel for turnovers and assists.

RAPM however, I'm not sure where we are with it. We don't have an advocate like Hollinger who put out some WONDERFUL eye test/stats article on ESPN, especially if you had insider on the metric and how to use it. We don't have such an advocate that I'm aware of with RAPM and I think that's been a huge issue with these new stats. The result is a group of people who use it well, a group who use it without context, and another group completely confused because the stat has so many "WTF" moments.

I'd much rather we get more acceptance, but with better insight. I'd also like us to use more stats, not one stat to end all, but to be honest I don't think the average internet fan has enough of a background in data and analytics for that to work.

[dhsilv2]

Post the list of top ten players by offensive and defensive RAPM for the last ten years and then tell me why you give that stat any weight in evaluating players...

I've been looking over the numbers and it seems like shots at a dart board in terms of accuracy as a reliable metric.

As long as you assume the stats aren't there to rank players or rate players, but to add additional insight, they're great. You also have to make sure you're comparing apple to apples. A bench player who's high on the list should not be compared to a starter for example.

The impression I get is that they are all very circumstantial. Put a player in the right position, use him to his strengths and surround him with other good players and you'll see a high RAPM. It's not that I don't see any value in it, but in a lot of instances it seems to be the most influential metric on votes, which does make sense to me yet.

I'm assuming you mean doesn't.

I think what ESPN is doing with their modified xrapm is helping a bit as it uses box score stats as well.

Sorry for formatting but I'm lazy tonight, but here is ESPN's list with a 2k min, just took the top 31 players, the top 40 minus low minute players. Next lets assume that these are mean scores with some level of deviation. I'm not sure we've seen the error but lets assume it's +/- 1.

So with that in mind Dray seems a bit high, but if I assume there could be a high error rate, he could fall a lot. However we do get a general idea that he's a darn darn good player and is likely under valued by some metrics due to what really is great defense.

What I take here is that we need to check out Jokic. Westbrook's box score "wow" maybe wasn't as great, we need to think about it. Same with Harden. Meanwhile we ignored Curry but he sure seems to be making an impact. I can use this to find players I should look closer at and see why. Without this I might miss these players all together. But don't look at this as a ranking but as a range and then think about a player's role. If the player isn't asked to do much, you should think about that with the ranking. maybe they're just crazy good at their role? That's a pretty valuable result from the metric is it not? Or all the point guards so highly ranked, perhaps the point guard spot is more valuable than we as fans generally think? Or maybe I should think that point guards are replaceable so I should focus on other positional players. With that said super high numbers tend to be special and we tend to not see a lot of so so players topping these lists.

NAME RPM WINS
LeBron James, SF 8.42 20.43
Stephen Curry, PG 7.41 18.8
Draymond Green, PF 7.14 16.84
Kawhi Leonard, SF 7.08 15.53
Nikola Jokic, C 6.73 13.18
Jimmy Butler, SG 6.62 17.35
Rudy Gobert, C 6.37 15.55
Russell Westbrook, PG 6.27 17.34
Kyle Lowry, PG 5.88 12.67
Kevin Durant, SF 5.74 12.24
James Harden, SG 4.81 15.54
Paul Millsap, PF 4.58 11.51
DeAndre Jordan, C 4.55 12.59
Mike Conley, PG 4.47 10.5
Anthony Davis, PF 4.35 12.81
Giannis Antetokounmpo, SF 4.21 13
DeMarcus Cousins, C 4.2 11.26
Jae Crowder, SF 3.89 10.52
Blake Griffin, PF 3.78 9.2
Otto Porter Jr., SF 3.56 11.21
Robert Covington, SF 3.55 9.23
Damian Lillard, PG 3.14 10.72
Gordon Hayward, SF 3.06 9.45
Danilo Gallinari, SF 2.88 8.39
Gorgui Dieng, PF 2.72 9.73
Kemba Walker, PG 2.68 9.95
Myles Turner, C 2.66 9.31
Marc Gasol, C 2.58 8.69
Paul George, SF 2.58 9.72
Ricky Rubio, PG 2.49 8.72
Patrick Beverley, PG 2.48 7.56

[Pablo Novi]

Am I suffering some reverse kind of voter fatigue? Instead of getting tired of voting for a player who always gets in; I'm getting tired of voting for 2 players who never get in. (Probably just means that my system for evaluating players just sucks big time! lol)

There's ONLY 10 players that ever so dominated their own position in their own era that they accumulated 10 (or 11) ALL-League 1st-Team selections; and we're closing in on GOAT #30 with both of them barely getting any traction. They also happen to be some of the oldest old-timers.

VOTE: Elgin Baylor - TEN 1st-Team ALL-NBA selections; revolutionized his position. HE'S GOTTA BE IN THE TOP 30. The Big "O" ranked him GOAT #1 - like many players, "O" tends to overestimate players from his decade; but he was no dumb-bleep - Baylor can not be 29 spots worse than "O" has him.

ALT: Cousy. He's the other remaining guy with TEN 1st-Team All-NBAs PLUS 2 more 2nd-Team ALL-NBAs. So far we've only got Pettit from Cousy's era (and he was kind of half out of it - what with winning half his ALL-NBAs in the 60s; when Cousy was getting 2nd-Team ALL-NBAs. If for no other reason than that we've underrepresented the 50s - Cousy should go in; but he too revolutionized his position.

My basic point: NO PLAYER can do much more than thoroughly dominate HIS position during his era: Baylor and Cousy not only did that to the level of only 8 other players ever; they fundamentally changed both their position and the game. Baylor invented hang-time - and he was stunning at it - he invented an entire array of gorgeous moves to the room; and his extra-strong wrists allowed him to outwait the opponents and then still flip it in. ALL my GOAT dunks were by Dr J; except for THE GOAT Dunk - Baylor gliding across the key. Wilt comes in to stuff both the ball and Elgin. Elgin still floating sideways, flips the ball to his other hand and hammers it home. (Got that one burned into the back of my eyeballs all the way to my brain - heck what else is back there?) lol

H.M. Coming in with NINE ALL-League selections (and CLEARLY ROBBED of a TENth by the NBA legally not letting him play what could have been his PEAK season; certainly in his PRIME); Rick Barry was a consistently brilliant player; fabulous free throw shooter and all around jerk (oops - he was a bit of a hard-to-get-along with TEAM-mate - but he always played his hardest.)

Another strong argument for Rick Barry is that all we've got so far from the 1970s is: KAJ (who was almost as good in the 1980s) and Dr. J. (Am I missing somebody else?).

After the three of them, I care considerably less about the rest of our GOAT order - but that's just me and my old-timer "righteousness" (others might call it favoritism; but what do they know?) lol

[Dr Positivity]

Kevin Durant - Case for: One of the few remaining elite, MVP caliber peaks by both peer recognition and boxscore. Has spent a large portion of his career being a top 2 player in the league, how many remaining players can say that? Quality playoff performer with a great Finals MVP. All time great portability for his position. Case against: Below average longevity compared to competition here. Slightly disappointing impact stats. Puts up assist numbers but isn't "running the offense", typically important for top level offensive impact.

Stephen Curry - Case for: Probable best peak remaining of candidates, boxscore stats combined with offensive gravity and playing GP puts him in mix for greatest offensive impact of all time. The history of champions suggests the difference between generational talents and everyone else means everything. Case against: Weak longevity and compounded by not carrying his 2016 form into the playoffs. Not significant defensive impact considering his play and position.

Scottie Pippen - Case for: One of the greatest perimeter defenders at a good defensive position SF. Passes well which correlates well with offensive impact. 90s ORAPM is good. Showed he can be in MVP convo away from Jordan. Great portability and popular pick on all time teams. Case against: Good not great scorer and generally not rated as an MVP level talent in his time. Longevity is fine but not miles ahead of a player like Durant. 98 and 99 DRAPM is disappointing for still being 1st team All-D at that point.

Elgin Baylor - Case for: Elite MVP contending peak due to volume scoring, rebounding, passing combo. Some big playoff performances at his peak and comes to within earshot of title. After surgery still a well rounded player who is recognized by All-NBA and MVP votes in 68 and 69. Case against: Short prime up to 63. When his TS and scoring volume drops after surgery, his value as represented by WS falls off hard. Shoots a lot on a team with a better offensive option in West. Until the star version of West comes through his teams keep finishing below .500, although doing well in playoffs.

Rick Barry - Case for: Plays an offensive impact friendly style of play, as floor spacing/passing combo. Very solid longevity compared to competition for this spot when including ABA - a good 12 years of all-star play. Wins with one of the weakest champion supporting casts on paper, then wins 59 games with them the next year. Case against: Kind of the Kobe of his era in terms of relationship with his teammates, and overall Grade A Douche. Typically has mediocre TS. Never finishes top 2 in either MVP vote or Win Shares in NBA.

Artis Gilmore - Case for: 10th all time in NBA/ABA Win Shares and continued to have top 5/top 3 appearances in less heralded NBA stint. Great defense at C gives him high baseline of value. Efficient on offense. MVP and superstar in ABA. Elite longevity and durability. Case against: Underwhelming MVP support in NBA and said to have lacked it mentally, aggressiveness, killer gene, etc. The type of giant who likes to be underwater more than on the surface so his size doesn't stand out. Plays a near the rim, unpolished style of offensive game the type of which tends to not rate that well in impact stats. Did he benefit in ABA from playing against weaker big men competition?

Jason Kidd - Case for: Very good RAPM player at his peak, with several top 5 finishes. Superb longevity and continues to have impact till the end. Bring an ok supporting cast to 2 Finals. Playmaking alone has value on offense. One of the top defensive PGs and ability to guard SGs gives him more value than PGs normally can have on that end. Case against: Weak scoring threat in volume/efficiency limits offensive value. At his peak had system built around his strengths/weaknesses to maximize his impact. Boxscore stats (WS/VORP/etc.) generally don't support him as MVP caliber player.

Gary Payton - Case for: All time great defensive PG while having a very good offensive career as an over 20 points, 8-9 assist player at highly valuable offensive position PG, leads the league in OBPM several times. Quality decade's worth of longevity and elite durability. Responded to losing Kemp, once considered an equal star to him, by leading Sonics to 61 Ws and 3rd in MVP in 98. Case against: Playing PG puts ceiling on how high his defensive impact can be compared to a bigger defender like Pippen, late 90s DRAPM good but not massive. Questionable portability - average 3pt shooting PG with a big ego, not the style of player you want beside say, 2004 Kobe and Shaq or similar situations. Neither stats or awards has him as a real MVP caliber player the bulk of his career. Playoff record has some spottiness.

Clyde Drexler - Case for: Good longevity considering alternatives here with a decade's worth of high level seasons and still being a decent player to the end. VORP/BPM friendly player. Good results as team's best player including 2 Finals. High peak in MVP recognition getting 12 1st place votes against MJ in 1992. Great passing wing is valuable in offensive impact, while position along gives him some defensive points. Case against: A low key playoff numbers drop guy in his prime. Needs transition play which may not translate as well to playoffs. Is he the David Robinson of his position - has holes in his skill game that get more exposed in playoffs than regular season?

Vote: Scottie Pippen - I struggled with this one for a long time, but I think I'll side with the Pippen and Payton combo, both of whom combine defense with offense and a solid career of longevity - Payton more offensive driven because of his position. I like Pippen's fit with other players and playoff record more so I'll go with him

2nd: Gary Payton