Discuss Ernie Grunfeld's GM skills here (Part 2)

[montestewart]

Just had a thought... using hindsight, what would be the best draft-night trades of picks we could have made in this decade -- doesn't have to be practical, but something that in principle would be likely to have worked.

One example comes to mind: for the #6 pick in 2011, you would think in principle a team would have been able to pick up the #15, #30 & #60 picks in the same draft. As it turns out, that would have gotten Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler & Isaiah Thomas! Not a bad haul?

I know this is not "realistic" strictly speaking -- those pick were held by 3 different teams! But if in some draft you saw the # 6 go for the #s15, 30 & 60, it wouldn't be shocking.

Wizards could have traded Nos. 6 and 34 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 held by Houston, taken Leonard, Butler Thomas or Chandler Parsons, and Faried with their retained No. 19. Wittman wouldn't have played any of them because they were younger than he was.

[payitforward]

Just had a thought... using hindsight, what would be the best draft-night trades of picks we could have made in this decade -- doesn't have to be practical, but something that in principle would be likely to have worked.

One example comes to mind: for the #6 pick in 2011, you would think in principle a team would have been able to pick up the #15, #30 & #60 picks in the same draft. As it turns out, that would have gotten Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler & Isaiah Thomas! Not a bad haul?

I know this is not "realistic" strictly speaking -- those pick were held by 3 different teams! But if in some draft you saw the # 6 go for the #s15, 30 & 60, it wouldn't be shocking.

Wizards could have traded Nos. 6 and 34 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 held by Houston, taken Leonard, Butler, Thomas or Chandler Parsons, and Faried with their retained No. 19. Wittman wouldn't have played any of them because they were younger than he was.

How is that as good as my original suggestion? I retained 19 & 34. My trade got us Leonard, Faried (w/ #19), Butler, Parsons (w/ #34) & Thomas.

I.e. your version got us either Thomas or Parsons. My version got us both of those guys -- 5 in all. Almost a starting lineup!

pg -- Isaiah Thomas
sg -- Jimmy Butler
sf -- Kawhi Leonard
pf -- Chandler Parsons
c -- Kenneth Faried

Ok... that's a stretch at pf/c. But, then in 2012, we draft Beal, Draymond Green & Kyle O'Quinn (w/ the other R2 pick we had, which we DIDN'T give away in the stupid Okariza trade), & now it's

pg -- Isaiah Thomas
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried
c -- Kyle O'Quinn

But, why am I not including the guys we got in 2010, first draft of our rebuild?

pg -- John Wall, Isaiah Thomas
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried, Trevor Booker
c -- Kyle O'Quinn

Then in 2013, we pick Otto Porter &, in R2, Jeff Withey (instead of trading away a R2 pick in 2015 to move up for GRIII). We don't trade for Gortat either.

pg -- John Wall, Isaiah Thomas
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Otto Porter
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried, Trevor Booker
c -- Kyle O'Quinn, Jeff Withey

We trade our 2014 & 2015 R1 picks for a higher 2015 R1 pick (see below). We trade our 2014 & 2015 R2 picks for a higher 2014 R2 pick, with which we take Nikola Jokic. In the Summer of 2014, we sign Gortat as a FA.

pg -- John Wall, Isaiah Thomas
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Otto Porter
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried, Trevor Booker
c -- Marcin Gortat, Kyle O'Quinn, Jeff Withey, Nikola Jokic

With our higher 2015 R1 pick (see above), we pick Myles Turner.

pg -- John Wall, Isaiah Thomas
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Otto Porter
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried, Trevor Booker
c -- Marcin Gortat, Kyle O'Quinn, Jeff Withey, Nikola Jokic, Myles Turner

With our 2016 R1 pick (not a lottery pick by now, of course), we take Caris Levert. We trade our 2016 & 2017 R2 picks for a higher R2 pick, with which we take Patrick McCaw.

pg -- John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Patrick McCaw
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Caris Levert
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Otto Porter
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried, Trevor Booker
c -- Marcin Gortat, Kyle O'Quinn, Jeff Withey, Nikola Jokic, Myles Turner

With our 2017 R1 pick, we take Og Anunoby

pg -- John Wall, Isaiah Thomas, Patrick McCaw
sg -- Jimmy Butler, Bradley Beal, Caris Levert
sf -- Kawhi Leonard, Chandler Parsons, Otto Porter, Og Anunoby
pf -- Draymond Green, Kenneth Faried, Trevor Booker
c -- Marcin Gortat, Kyle O'Quinn, Jeff Withey, Nikola Jokic, Myles Turner

Any questions? By this point, we are NBA champs. In my hindsight-driven dream of the right way to build a franchise.

[montestewart]

Just had a thought... using hindsight, what would be the best draft-night trades of picks we could have made in this decade -- doesn't have to be practical, but something that in principle would be likely to have worked.

One example comes to mind: for the #6 pick in 2011, you would think in principle a team would have been able to pick up the #15, #30 & #60 picks in the same draft. As it turns out, that would have gotten Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler & Isaiah Thomas! Not a bad haul?

I know this is not "realistic" strictly speaking -- those pick were held by 3 different teams! But if in some draft you saw the # 6 go for the #s15, 30 & 60, it wouldn't be shocking.

Wizards could have traded Nos. 6 and 34 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 held by Houston, taken Leonard, Butler, Thomas or Chandler Parsons, and Faried with their retained No. 19. Wittman wouldn't have played any of them because they were younger than he was.

How is that as good as my original suggestion? I retained 19 & 34. My trade got us Leonard, Faried (w/ #19), Butler, Parsons (w/ #34) & Thomas.

My trade is more "realistic" strictly speaking -- those picks were held by Houston! C'mon PIF, keep up!

If we want to go truly unrealistic, EGgo doesn't flinch and it's a No. 6 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 trade. Morey would need a lot of Vesely to smooth that rough ride.

[payitforward]

Wizards could have traded Nos. 6 and 34 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 held by Houston, taken Leonard, Butler, Thomas or Chandler Parsons, and Faried with their retained No. 19. Wittman wouldn't have played any of them because they were younger than he was.

How is that as good as my original suggestion? I retained 19 & 34. My trade got us Leonard, Faried (w/ #19), Butler, Parsons (w/ #34) & Thomas.

My trade is more "realistic" strictly speaking -- those picks were held by Houston! C'mon PIF, keep up!

If we want to go truly unrealistic, EGgo doesn't flinch and it's a No. 6 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 trade. Morey would need a lot of Vesely to smooth that rough ride.

Realistic? You want to be realistic? Where's the fun in that, tell me!!? What do we get out of your so-called "realistic" trade -- Leonard, Butler & Thomas? Plus Faried & Parsons? What a measly haul!

Oh wait a minute.... That's the same guys my trade was getting us! But I doubt Morey does that deal.

Lets suppose, more "realistically," that he trades us 14 & 38 for #6. Then, we trade 34 & 38 for 30. Both of those are closer to realism.

We get Kawhi Leonard & Jimmy Butler in place of Vesely & Mack. Add in Faried @ 19, & we've basically transformed the team with that draft.

Why am I not the Wizards' GM, tell me? You can be my assistant, monte: I'll let you do all the hard stuff, ok?

[montestewart]

How is that as good as my original suggestion? I retained 19 & 34. My trade got us Leonard, Faried (w/ #19), Butler, Parsons (w/ #34) & Thomas.

My trade is more "realistic" strictly speaking -- those picks were held by Houston! C'mon PIF, keep up!

If we want to go truly unrealistic, EGgo doesn't flinch and it's a No. 6 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 trade. Morey would need a lot of Vesely to smooth that rough ride.

Realistic? You want to be realistic? Where's the fun in that, tell me!!? What do we get out of your so-called "realistic" trade -- Leonard, Butler & Thomas? Plus Faried & Parsons? What a measly haul!

Oh wait a minute.... That's the same guys my trade was getting us! But I doubt Morey does that deal.

Lets suppose, more "realistically," that he trades us 14 & 38 for #6. Then, we trade 34 & 38 for 30. Both of those are closer to realism.

We get Kawhi Leonard & Jimmy Butler in place of Vesely & Mack. Add in Faried @ 19, & we've basically transformed the team with that draft.

Why am I not the Wizards' GM, tell me? You can be my assistant, monte: I'll let you do all the hard stuff, ok?

As long as we get someone else to lift Xerox boxes

When I was younger, I used to play this game with the Bullets. Malone, Stockton, Drexler, Rodman, Mark Price.... There was a rumor that the rights to Reggie Miller were offered in exchange for Jeff Malone.

[Ruzious]

Wizards could have traded Nos. 6 and 34 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 held by Houston, taken Leonard, Butler, Thomas or Chandler Parsons, and Faried with their retained No. 19. Wittman wouldn't have played any of them because they were younger than he was.

How is that as good as my original suggestion? I retained 19 & 34. My trade got us Leonard, Faried (w/ #19), Butler, Parsons (w/ #34) & Thomas.

My trade is more "realistic" strictly speaking -- those picks were held by Houston! C'mon PIF, keep up!

If we want to go truly unrealistic, EGgo doesn't flinch and it's a No. 6 for Nos. 14, 23, and 38 trade. Morey would need a lot of Vesely to smooth that rough ride.

No flies in the Veseline for Morey.

[Coach76]

Is anyone better than Ernie at finding guys on their last legs? I'm thinking of Drew Gooden III, Al Harrington,and Marcus Thornton.

[closg00]

A few months old, I wasn't aware that Ernie had not held a formal presser with reporters in almost a year.
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/21/ernie-grunfeld-john-wall-luxury-tax-and-eastern-co/

[queridiculo]

According to the Post Grunfeld had a successful offseason because he resigned his own guys to max deals, brought in Meeks and Scott on minimum deals and traded yet another 2nd round draft pick for yet another backup PG project.

That's it. That's what passes for good work around DC.

[BigA]

According to the Post Grunfeld had a successful offseason because he resigned his own guys to max deals, brought in Meeks and Scott on minimum deals and traded yet another 2nd round draft pick for yet another backup PG project.

That's it. That's what passes for good work around DC.

Let's be fair to Ernie. This offseason he didn't hand out a combined $90M in guaranteed money to guys who will play less than half the season or are simply unplayable.

We also know that he didn't draft any busts.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

[closg00]

By now, Ernie has quietly received another contract extension...wonder how-many years he got?

[payitforward]

A few months old, I wasn't aware that Ernie had not held a formal presser with reporters in almost a year.
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/21/ernie-grunfeld-john-wall-luxury-tax-and-eastern-co/

You write well for someone who's only a few months old. I'm impressed.

[pcbothwel]

By now, Ernie has quietly received another contract extension...wonder how-many years he got?

I think we know Ted will not fire EG. My hope is that he simply stays as President and they let someone else come on board as GM.

[payitforward]

By now, Ernie has quietly received another contract extension...wonder how-many years he got?

I think we know Ted will not fire EG. My hope is that he simply stays as President and they let someone else come on board as GM.

It does seem that Ernie has the job for life. Why, I wonder?

In the Ted thread, I speculated that Leonsis doesn't think it matters who runs the franchise. It only matters that he works for a genius -- Ted himself.

Only way I can make sense of it.

[payitforward]

One way to think about GM skills is to look at the bottom 1/3 of a team's 15-man roster & see how much it costs & how much potential future value it contains.

The bottom 1/3 of our 15-man roster this year costs us a @ $7.65m in total. That's an average of $1.5m per player. The 5 players are Tim Frazier, Chris McCullough, Mike Scott, Daniel Ochefu & Sheldon Mac. We have those guys under contract after this year for a total of another 5 years.

For comparison, I clicked on the Clippers: their bottom 5 guys under contract cost @ $5.88m. The 5 players are Montrezl Harrell, Willie Reed, Brice Johnson, Sindarius Thornwell & Jawun Evans. They have those guys under contract after this year for a total of another 10 years.

Another comparison, closer to home, is the Celtics. Their group includes Ante Zizic, Shane Larkin, Semi Ojeleye, Abdel Nader & Daniel Theis. Overall, that group is sewn up for 13 years after this season.

I'd say the guy w/ the most potential future value in our group is Sheldon Mac. Both in productivity growth & as a potential trade asset (i.e. if the productivity growth is there & if we've sewed him up). McCullough & Ochefu are long shots at best. Scott & Frazier are veterans.

The Clippers' group includes Willie Reed -- who just drove his value through the floor by getting arrested on domestic violence charges! -- along with 2 picks from 2016 & 2 picks from 2017. I'm a big fan of Johnson & Thornwell in particular.

On the Celts, Zizic was a R1 pick in 2016, Larkin's a young veteran seemingly on his way down & out of the league, Nader was a R2 pick the same year (keep your eye on him, btw; I've mentioned him here about a half dozen times). Ojeleye was picked #37 this year. Theis is a 25-year old undrafted Euro big who has been killing it.

The Clippers & Celtics look to have quite a lot more future potential in their bottom 5 groups than we do, though of course potential is a slippery thing! I'm particularly impressed by the LAC group.

Amazingly, to me, the Celtics have, in addition to this group, another 5 guys on rookie contracts! That's amazing for a team that won 51 games last year. OTOH, they have 16 guys on guaranteed contracts, so someone will have to go (but I don't think it'll be 1 of the 5 on the list above).

Conclusion? Kind of obvious to me. We'll be stuck patching in pieces year to year for quite a while, as opposed to teams run by good GMs who have potential to develop from within.

[penbeast0]

...
Why am I not the Wizards' GM, tell me? You can be my assistant, monte: I'll let you do all the hard stuff, ok?

Because the board long ago gave that job to CCJ who continues to be masterful. However, I'm sure you have an excellent chance to be on his brain trust.

[closg00]

One way to think about GM skills is to look at the bottom 1/3 of a team's 15-man roster & see how much it costs & how much potential future value it contains.

The bottom 1/3 of our 15-man roster this year costs us a @ $7.65m in total. That's an average of $1.5m per player. The 5 players are Tim Frazier, Chris McCullough, Mike Scott, Daniel Ochefu & Sheldon Mac. We have those guys under contract after this year for a total of another 5 years.

For comparison, I clicked on the Clippers: their bottom 5 guys under contract cost @ $5.88m. The 5 players are Montrezl Harrell, Willie Reed, Brice Johnson, Sindarius Thornwell & Jawun Evans. They have those guys under contract after this year for a total of another 10 years.

Another comparison, closer to home, is the Celtics. Their group includes Ante Zizic, Shane Larkin, Semi Ojeleye, Abdel Nader & Daniel Theis. Overall, that group is sewn up for 13 years after this season.

I'd say the guy w/ the most potential future value in our group is Sheldon Mac. Both in productivity growth & as a potential trade asset (i.e. if the productivity growth is there & if we've sewed him up). McCullough & Ochefu are long shots at best. Scott & Frazier are veterans.

The Clippers' group includes Willie Reed -- who just drove his value through the floor by getting arrested on domestic violence charges! -- along with 2 picks from 2016 & 2 picks from 2017. I'm a big fan of Johnson & Thornwell in particular.

On the Celts, Zizic was a R1 pick in 2016, Larkin's a young veteran seemingly on his way down & out of the league, Nader was a R2 pick the same year (keep your eye on him, btw; I've mentioned him here about a half dozen times). Ojeleye was picked #37 this year. Theis is a 25-year old undrafted Euro big who has been killing it.

The Clippers & Celtics look to have quite a lot more future potential in their bottom 5 groups than we do, though of course potential is a slippery thing! I'm particularly impressed by the LAC group.

Amazingly, to me, the Celtics have, in addition to this group, another 5 guys on rookie contracts! That's amazing for a team that won 51 games last year. OTOH, they have 16 guys on guaranteed contracts, so someone will have to go (but I don't think it'll be 1 of the 5 on the list above).

Conclusion? Kind of obvious to me. We'll be stuck patching in pieces year to year for quite a while, as opposed to teams run by good GMs who have potential to develop from within.

Hasn't patch-work GMing been Ernie's bread and butter as-long as he's been a GM?

[WizarDynasty]

Ernie has to get points for getting Markieff Morris. Not a super star but definitely the best powerforward we have had since webber and wallace.

[Nigel Tufnel]

A few months old, I wasn't aware that Ernie had not held a formal presser with reporters in almost a year.
http://m.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jun/21/ernie-grunfeld-john-wall-luxury-tax-and-eastern-co/

Meanwhile Rizzo appears weekly on 106.7 FM.