RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #30

Not voting yet, but the main guys I'm considering are:

Gilmore
Reggie
Pippen
Hondo
Barry
Frazier

I'm not considering Kidd because I've sided with Frazier.
I'm not considering Paul Pierce because I've got Reggie over Pierce, I feel questionable about having Hondo on my list but not having Pierce.

Rick Barry has been sticking in my mind over the past day. Of the players in question, he's the most clear cut alpha superstar in his approach, and the reality is that no one had a larger role on a champion team, and he also had a longevity edge at least compared to Frazier.

So I suppose I'd say that I'm leaning toward Barry, but still want to hear the opinions of others very much.

Post #3 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:22 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:Not voting yet, but the main guys I'm considering are:

Gilmore
Reggie
Pippen
Hondo
Barry
Frazier

I'm not considering Kidd because I've sided with Frazier.
I'm not considering Paul Pierce because I've got Reggie over Pierce, I feel questionable about having Hondo on my list but not having Pierce.

Rick Barry has been sticking in my mind over the past day. Of the players in question, he's the most clear cut alpha superstar in his approach, and the reality is that no one had a larger role on a champion team, and he also had a longevity edge at least compared to Frazier.

So I suppose I'd say that I'm leaning toward Barry, but still want to hear the opinions of others very much.

No mention of Drexler among this crowd?

JordansBulls · Post #4 » by **JordansBulls** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:45 pm

Vote: Clyde Drexler (led team to the finals twice as the man, was the leader of win shares on a team that won the title in 1995). Was on the Original Dream Team, 10x allstar

2nd Vote: John Havlicek

Post #5 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:45 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:Not voting yet, but the main guys I'm considering are:

Gilmore
Reggie
Pippen
Hondo
Barry
Frazier

I'm not considering Kidd because I've sided with Frazier.
I'm not considering Paul Pierce because I've got Reggie over Pierce, I feel questionable about having Hondo on my list but not having Pierce.

Rick Barry has been sticking in my mind over the past day. Of the players in question, he's the most clear cut alpha superstar in his approach, and the reality is that no one had a larger role on a champion team, and he also had a longevity edge at least compared to Frazier.

So I suppose I'd say that I'm leaning toward Barry, but still want to hear the opinions of others very much.

No mention of Drexler among this crowd?

I'm not in love with Drexler's actual achievement. I respect Dr. Jack Ramsey quite a lot, and he's pretty critical of Drexler, and the on/off data we have from Drexler isn't all that great either.

He was a beautiful player to watch, and I'm not saying he's not a Top 50 guy for me, but i still have some guys cleanly ahead of him.

Post #6 » by **penbeast0** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 9:53 pm

PG -- Frazier has always been my top choice among the remaining PGs. He's the guy I want shooting it, he ran an offense well known for doing all the right things ("It's Clyde's ball, he just let's us play with it," Willis Reed), he was great in the only two titles in Knicks history, and of course I grew up hating him. But, looking at the impact of Jason Kidd who consistently ran below average offenses until the very end of his career as a 3 and D player around Dirk Nowitzki, I was really surprised to see how much better the Payton led offenses in Seattle were than Frazier's in NY. Frazier's offenses were in the top half of the league, Payton's were consistently top 5 for a stretch with good shooting wings, Shawn Kemp (for better and for worse), and mediocre center play. Add to that Payton's defensive rep, his longer prime (ignoring his last few bad ring chaser years as I try to do for MJ in DC), and Frazier's playing much of his career in the relatively weak era of the 70s and I think I have to switch to the Glove or be inconsistent in my analysis and criteria. Especially for PGs, team offense matters and the personnel isn't grossly in Payton's favor but the results are. I am leaning the Detroit pair of Thomas and Billups over Kidd too but haven't looked that closely at them yet.

SG -- Like the PGs, the guy with the best 5 year prime has a very short career (as short as Curry and unlike Curry, his knees left him a shadow of himself for his last few years). That would be Sidney Moncrief, the GOAT defensive 2 and a superefficient, 20ppg scorer on a spread the wealth offense (sensing a theme!). Longevity would favor Clyde Drexler though and they are probably close enough that Drexler should get the edge. Gervin's defense is a problem, Reggie Miller and Sam Jones are also worth considering, maybe Ray Allen too. Lots of scorers here.

SF -- Pippen is probably the highest rated SF left for me as I didn't think Baylor's team results with Jerry West who I am super high on maximized his team results. Havlicek also has been mentioned but his scoring was inefficient for much of his career and while his motor was GOAT level, I don't think his defense and impact are quite PIppen's level. Barry's crappy attitude is a problem, his defense is Gervinesque, however his 1975 run is legendary. Still, I would rather have most if not all of the other names mentioned on my team though; he was not a team guy.

PF -- What to do with Hayes, McHale, Webber, Amare, and Dennis Rodman. I think some of these guys compare to Artis Gilmore or Scottie Pippen, particularly McHale. No sure I'd have him higher but I think it's a comparison worth looking into.

C -- The next C that I have is Artis Gilmore, outstanding defensive peaks though Gilmore's was in the ABA (not nearly as impressed by his post merger defense), superefficient but not aggressive scorer, mediocre passer. Similar to a significantly taller but shy Dwight Howard. I don't have Mel Daniels, Willis Reed, or Dave Cowens quite as high.

PICK: Payton, Pippen, or Gilmore? Some one else? Will listen, try to learn a bit, and come back later to pick.

mikejames23 · Post #7 » by **mikejames23** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:05 pm

[quote="Doctor MJ
I'm not considering Paul Pierce because I've got Reggie over Pierce, I feel questionable about having Hondo on my list but not having Pierce.

[/quote]

I don't know if that's fair. Miller was considered a perennial all star type which is in the same vein as Pierce. Pierce also has great playoff performances and unlike Reggie rates well above average as a defender in his prime years - sometimes defensive team consideration worthy. Havlicek doesn't seem to have proven more than Pierce did relative to era, either (though I think Pablo or Penbeast would have to say a thing or 10 about that).

Post #8 » by **Doctor MJ** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:12 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:[quote="Doctor MJ]
I'm not considering Paul Pierce because I've got Reggie over Pierce, I feel questionable about having Hondo on my list but not having Pierce.

[/quote]

I don't know if that's fair. Miller was considered a perennial all star type which is in the same vein as Pierce. Pierce also has great playoff performances and unlike Reggie rates well above average as a defender in his prime years - sometimes defensive team consideration worthy. Havlicek doesn't seem to have proven more than Pierce did relative to era, either (though I think Pablo or Penbeast would have to say a thing or 10 about that).[/quote]

Hmm, if what's fair?

If it's Hondo vs Pierce, then I'd say I agree. I think Pierce has a pretty good argument over Hondo.

If it's Pierce vs Reggie, well that's just my opinion. Fine if you disagree.

Here's the thing: Reggie is the archetypical off-ball shooter, a role which I think was always undervalued, and has become considerably more valuable with recognition of the true value of the 3.

Pierce was great, but when I say Reggie's role was undervalued, I basically mean relative to Pierce's role. Isolation ability has value, and I'm not denying that, but I'm more impressed by what Reggie did than Pierce.

Post #9 » by **trex_8063** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:16 pm

penbeast0 wrote:PG -- Frazier has always been my top choice among the remaining PGs. He's the guy I want shooting it, he ran an offense well known for doing all the right things ("It's Clyde's ball, he just let's us play with it," Willis Reed), he was great in the only two titles in Knicks history, and of course I grew up hating him. But, looking at the impact of Jason Kidd who consistently ran below average offenses until the very end of his career as a 3 and D player around Dirk Nowitzki, I was really surprised to see how much better the Payton led offenses in Seattle were than Frazier's in NY. Frazier's offenses were in the top half of the league, Payton's were consistently top 5 for a stretch with good shooting wings, Shawn Kemp (for better and for worse), and mediocre center play. Add to that Payton's defensive rep, his longer prime (ignoring his last few bad ring chaser years as I try to do for MJ in DC), and Frazier's playing much of his career in the relatively weak era of the 70s and I think I have to switch to the Glove or be inconsistent in my analysis and criteria. Especially for PGs, team offense matters and the personnel isn't grossly in Payton's favor but the results are. I am leaning the Detroit pair of Thomas and Billups over Kidd too but haven't looked that closely at them yet.

Agree about Payton [who I think gets marginally underrated] over Frazier [who I think gets somewhat OVERrated here].

Regarding Kidd and impact....
We have multiple overlapping years (between he and Payton) in which impact data is available, I'm going to just (for my own information too, as I've not done this previously) look at their respective league rank year by year:

'95 (colts18's NPI rs only RAPM): Payton ranked 26th; Kidd (rookie) ranked 134th
'96: Payton ranked 23rd; Kidd ranked 108th
'97 (NPI, source: ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt): Payton ranked 21st; Kidd ranked 65th
'98: (PI; same source as '97): Payton ranked 20th, Kidd ranked 55th
'99: (""): Payton ranked 29th, Kidd ranked 24th
'00: (""): Payton ranked 6th, Kidd ranked 26th
'01 (JE's NPI): Payton ranked 161st, Kidd ranked 130th '01 (by shutupandjam's NPI, Payton ranked 142nd, Kidd ranked 132nd)
'02 (JE's PI): Payton ranked 210th, Kidd ranked 5th
'03 (""): Payton ranked 70th, Kidd ranked 5th
'04 (""): Payton ranked 59th, Kidd ranked 5th
'05 (""): Payton ranked 132nd, Kidd ranked 6th

I'll stop there. Kidd is somewhat unique, in that I don't think one can (or should) fixate on team offensive performance like we do with some other PG's if you're wanting to scrutinize his impact (though fwiw, during those peak years in NJ, he's got some pretty impressive offensive on/off's).

penbeast0 wrote:SG -- Like the PGs, the guy with the best 5 year prime has a very short career (as short as Curry and unlike Curry, his knees left him a shadow of himself for his last few years). That would be Sidney Moncrief, the GOAT defensive 2 and a superefficient, 20ppg scorer on a spread the wealth offense (sensing a theme!). Longevity would favor Clyde Drexler though and they are probably close enough that Drexler should get the edge. Gervin's defense is a problem, Reggie Miller and Sam Jones are also worth considering, maybe Ray Allen too. Lots of scorers here.

Moncrief is not yet an option for me (again, for reasons of longevity). I'm looking at Drexler more recently, and he really does look like a good candidate here. I'm thinking of switching my alternate vote to him.

penbeast0 wrote:SF -- Pippen is probably the highest rated SF left for me as I didn't think Baylor's team results with Jerry West who I am super high on maximized his team results. Havlicek also has been mentioned but his scoring was inefficient for much of his career and while his motor was GOAT level, I don't think his defense and impact are quite PIppen's level. Barry's crappy attitude is a problem, his defense is Gervinesque, however his 1975 run is legendary. Still, I would rather have most if not all of the other names mentioned on my team though; he was not a team guy.

More or less agree, though I believe some of the "shooting efficiency woes" of some of the Celtics in the Russell era (obv I'm referring to comments about Havlicek here) was a result of doctrine. I'll post it again later, but I found a relatively strong correlation between rPace and rORTG in seasons where league avg pace was >115 (correlation coefficient was around 0.3, iirc, which is not insubstantial). I'd maintain Hondo's a decent candidate here.
I'm not ready for Gervin, as I feel he's arguably the weakest defender of all the wings you mentioned, arguably the weakest passer/playmaker of all the wings you mentioned, and his prime is somewhat shorter than one might think looking at his overall career length (same could be said of Pippen, though, fwiw).

penbeast0 wrote:PF -- What to do with Hayes, McHale, Webber, Amare, and Dennis Rodman. I think some of these guys compare to Artis Gilmore or Scottie Pippen, particularly McHale. No sure I'd have him higher but I think it's a comparison worth looking into.

I'm definitely not anywhere near ready for the Rodman or Webber, and tbh Amare maybe doesn't even make my top 100. His short and injury-riddled prime and non-existent defense (sometimes while playing the C) is just too much to overlook. Amazing scorer for a short stretch of his career, but just really doesn't bring anything else of value to the table.

penbeast0 wrote:C -- The next C that I have is Artis Gilmore, outstanding defensive peaks though Gilmore's was in the ABA (not nearly as impressed by his post merger defense), superefficient but not aggressive scorer, mediocre passer. Similar to a significantly taller but shy Dwight Howard. I don't have Mel Daniels, Willis Reed, or Dave Cowens quite as high.

The bolded describes almost perfectly how I feel about Gilmore too. He's the next center up for me, too, and I could potentially be convinced to hand him a vote very very soon (Dwight wouldn't be too terribly far behind).
I'm definitely not ready for Reed or Cowens, and Daniels may languish just outside my top 100, tbh.

penbeast0 wrote:PICK: Payton, Pippen, or Gilmore? Some one else? Will listen, try to learn a bit, and come back later to pick.

I would say Pippen, Drexler, Havlicek, or Kidd (I know I've not convinced you of the latter there, and I realize Kidd's a hard sell unless you value longevity as much as I do) are the best candidates presently. Gilmore, Baylor, or potentially Payton seem more or less suitable to me as well.

rebirthoftheM · Post #10 » by **rebirthoftheM** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:23 pm

So the count now:

50s- 2 (Petit/Mikan*- late 40s)
60s- 4 (Wilt/Russell/Oscar/West)
70s- 2 (Kareem/Dr J)
80s- 3 (Magic/Bird/Moses)
90s- 7 (MJ/Hakeem/Malone/D-Rob/Barkley/Stockton/Ewing)
00s- 7 (Shaq/Duncan/Kobe/Dirk/KG/Nash/Wade* could go here too)
10s- 4 (Lebron/CP3/Durant/Curry)

Is there a recency bias going on, or is the break-up of the voting implicitly indicative of how folks view different eras? 90s onwards is dominating this list.

The big 4 from the 60s are featured in the top 15, with 2 of them in the top 10, but from there on, it's a blow-out going in favor of the post- 90s era.

SpreeS · Post #11 » by **SpreeS** » Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:48 pm

rebirthoftheM wrote:So the count now:

50s- 2 (Petit/Mikan*- late 40s)
60s- 4 (Wilt/Russell/Oscar/West)
70s- 2 (Kareem/Dr J)
80s- 3 (Magic/Bird/Moses)
90s- 7 (MJ/Hakeem/Malone/D-Rob/Barkley/Stockton/Ewing)
00s- 7 (Shaq/Duncan/Kobe/Dirk/KG/Nash/Wade* could go here too)
10s- 4 (Lebron/CP3/Durant/Curry)

Is there a recency bias going on, or is the break-up of the voting implicitly indicative of how folks view different eras? 90s onwards is dominating this list.

The big 4 from the 60s are featured in the top 15, with 2 of them in the top 10, but from there on, it's a blow-out going in favor of the post- 90s era.

10s era has to go more 3y and Leonard, Davis, Harden, Westbrook have possibility to get in to TOP30
Lebron TOP2?
Curry and KD TOP10?
Davis > Barkley after all?
Leonard has trajectory for TOP20
Can Westbrook go after Oscar?

scrabbarista · Post #12 » by **scrabbarista** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:12 am

30. John Havlicek

31. Elgin Baylor

I. Among remaining players, these two are 3rd and 4th, respectively, in all-time postseason production (points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks). (Pippen is first, Tony Parker is second.) This is in spite of the fact that when they played there were fewer rounds and fewer games per round. Simply put, these are the two best (career) postseason performers remaining - especially when we consider that for much of their careers (all of Baylor's), blocks and steals were not even recorded.

II. These two are 1st and 2nd among remaining players when it comes to honors and awards received. Elgin Baylor was a Top 5 MVP candidate 7 times - compare that to 1 for Pippen and 2 for Curry. Havlicek, meanwhile, made 19 All-NBA and All-Defensive teams.

III. Havlicek was the best player on at least 1.5 championship teams (I've seen one RGMer in these threads say "as many as 4" - he was an 8-time champion). [Pippen had 0, and as someone who saw his whole prime, I don't believe he was the caliber of player who could have ever been the best player on a title team.] Only Cowens and Isiah Thomas are left to match him, but consider the career production of Hondo vs. Thomas and Cowens:

RS:
Hondo = 41,109
Thomas = 33,471
Cowens = 27,957

PS:
Hondo = 5,862
Thomas = 4,044
Cowens = 3,436

That's at least a 20% advantage in all four comparisons, just eye-balling it. A huge margin. And for the players who do match Havlicek's career totals (there are only a handful left at most), they don't come close to his championship pedigree.

Joao Saraiva · Post #13 » by **Joao Saraiva** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:14 am

Really got to think about this one. Drexler, Pippen, Hondo, Baylor and Billups might come next. We'll get deeper on Billups since nobody is giving him traction but I'm a big big fan of his game.

RCM88x · Post #14 » by **RCM88x** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:15 am

rebirthoftheM wrote:So the count now:

50s- 2 (Petit/Mikan*- late 40s)
60s- 4 (Wilt/Russell/Oscar/West)
70s- 2 (Kareem/Dr J)
80s- 3 (Magic/Bird/Moses)
90s- 7 (MJ/Hakeem/Malone/D-Rob/Barkley/Stockton/Ewing)
00s- 7 (Shaq/Duncan/Kobe/Dirk/KG/Nash/Wade* could go here too)
10s- 4 (Lebron/CP3/Durant/Curry)

Is there a recency bias going on, or is the break-up of the voting implicitly indicative of how folks view different eras? 90s onwards is dominating this list.

The big 4 from the 60s are featured in the top 15, with 2 of them in the top 10, but from there on, it's a blow-out going in favor of the post- 90s era.

More teams = more players

2klegend · Post #15 » by **2klegend** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:39 am

When will Pip the Pimp get the recognition he deserves? He is all-time perimeter goat defender. An all-around player who does a little of everything and he won championship. Anchor '94 Bulls as a lead role and was impressive. 6 Titles to boost.

1st Vote: Pip
2nd Vote: Havlicek

THKNKG · Post #16 » by **THKNKG** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:09 am

Pippen vs. Havlicek - I'm not really convinced that Hondo actually did anything better than Pip - don't get me wrong, he was great, but Pippen was like the evolution of Hondo.

I think Elgin and Barry are other contenders for me at this spot at the SF position. I give the advantage to Baylor because I think he was a better player, though I'm open to learning more about each.

I would take Reggie over Drexler for a few reasons - Reggie is more portable, and also played a role that would translate well into any era. In addition to that, he was an elite volume scorer at great efficiency, and he consistently elevated his game in the playoffs.

McHale is the only PF that comes to mind for me as being on the radar (unless I'm forgetting someone).

PG's - Frazier, Kidd, IT, Payton are all on the next list, but I think IT is a step below all of these.

C - I have Mutombo and Gilmore as my next two centers.

So, currently considering:

Kidd/Frazier/Payton
Reggie
Pippen
Baylor
McHale
Mutombo/Gilmore

Post #17 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:25 am

rebirthoftheM wrote:So the count now:

50s- 2 (Petit/Mikan*- late 40s)
60s- 4 (Wilt/Russell/Oscar/West)
70s- 2 (Kareem/Dr J)
80s- 3 (Magic/Bird/Moses)
90s- 7 (MJ/Hakeem/Malone/D-Rob/Barkley/Stockton/Ewing)
00s- 7 (Shaq/Duncan/Kobe/Dirk/KG/Nash/Wade* could go here too)
10s- 4 (Lebron/CP3/Durant/Curry)

Is there a recency bias going on, or is the break-up of the voting implicitly indicative of how folks view different eras? 90s onwards is dominating this list.

Assuming number of teams more or less parallels the number of players, the 90's/00's/10's accounts for >50% of the players that have played professional basketball in North American since 1949 (813 of 1517 teams, or 53.6%, to be precise).

One would expect more players represented from those eras that HAD more players, unless you wish to assert those additional teams (30 in recent years, vs as few as 8 in many years) had their rosters filled entirely with scrubs because the player pool has not actually expanded in 70 years (very very easy to prove that it has, btw).

Below I'll list the % of teams since 1949 that each of the decades you listed account for, and in parentheses the % of the inductees that decade claims so far:

50's: 6.5% (6.9%)
60's: 7.8% (13.8%)
70's: 16.9% (6.9%, though some 60's players listed overlap here)
80's: 15.2% (10.3%*)
90's: 18.3% (24.1%*)
*noting that several 90's players listed had multiple relevant years in the 80's; Kareem too had many relevant years in the 80's.
00's: 19.4% (24.1%)
10's: 15.8% (13.8%)

Looking at it in this context, I don't really see significant evidence of recency bias. If anything, there would appear to be maybe a little nostalgic bias for the 60's, and bias specifically against the 70's (which is not without reason, given both rapid expansion AND a splinter league were present in that decade).

pandrade83 · Post #18 » by **pandrade83** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:39 am

Kind of a long post - guys are bunched together tightly at this point and I think stronger defenses will be required.

My Top Point Guards left (in order): Payton/Kidd/Frazier
My Top Wings left (in order): Drexler/Pippen/Barry/Gervin/Hondo
My Top 2 Centers left: Artis/Dwight

-----------------------------------------

Wings/Forwards:

10 year prime RS
Drexler ('86-'95): 23-7-6/2 stl/1 block/55% TS
Pippen ('90-'99): 19-7-6/2 stl/1 block/54% TS
Gervin ('75-'84): 27-6-3/1 stl/1 block/57% TS
Hondo ('67-'76): 23-7-6/partial steal data hovering around 1.5 on the back half of prime, not much blocks/50% TS
Barry ('66-'76): 28-8-5/partial steal data - led league in '75, not blocking much/53% TS - some of those years were years where the ABA wasn't good

10 year prime Playoffs
Drexler: 22-7-7/2 stl/1 block/54% TS
Pippen: 19-8-6/2 stl/1 block/52% TS
Gervin: 29/7/3/1 stl/1 block/56% TS
Hondo: 24/7/5/steals in 1.5 range on back half of prime, not much blocks/52% TS
Barry: 29/7/4/led '75 playoffs in steals, not blocking much/52% TS

Accolades:
Drexler: 10 All-Star, 5 All NBA, 2nd best player on 1 Title Team, best player on 2 Finals Teams
Pippen: 7 All-Star, 7 All NBA, 6 All D, 2nd best player on 6 Title Teams
Gervin: 12 All-Star, 7 All NBA, 2 All ABA, 4 X Scoring Champ, teams never competed for titles
Hondo: 13 All-Star, 11 All NBA, 8 All D, best player on 1-3 title teams depending on interpretation, 2nd best player on several title teams, 3rd best player on 4 title teams.
Barry: 12 All-Star, 6 All NBA 4 ALL ABA, 1 X Scoring Champ, Finals MVP, carried a team that probably had no business winning a title to a title.

Adv. Metrics - take a lot of this with a healthy dose of salt for some of the guys.
Drexler: 7 years @ 10+ WS, peaking out @ 13.2, 3 years @ VORP +7, healthy box score metrics on both sides with prime BPM average of 6.6, RAPM indicates a productive post prime; hard to read too much into data in regards to his prime/peak impact.
Pippen: 6 years @ 10 + WS, peaking out @ 13.1, 2 years @ VORP +7, prime BPM average of 5.9, RAPM indicates he's still elite in '97, suspect impact in Portland years, but still very effective in '98 when he played.
Gervin: 7 years @ 10+ WS, peaking out @ 12, much lower VORP than the other 2 - never above 5 and peaking out @ 4.4, DBPM scores are pretty rough dragging his BPM data to +2.2
Hondo: 4 years @ 10+WS, peaking out @ 12.5, only 2 years of VORP Data in last 2 years of prime @ 3.7 & 3.6. BPM Data ranging from 1.3 to 2.6 - again, just 3 years of data.
Barry: 6 years @ 10 + WS, peaking out @ 14.0, VORP data not available all years but hit 5.7 & 6.0 in '75 & '76, BPM data indicates average impact on defense.

I'm flipping this to Drexler. He's the most capable of carrying a team and his playoff #'s are materially better than Pip's - enough to sway me. Additionally, all signs point to him being a very strong defender - he doesn't have the accolades but he's pretty strong on that end. People are talking about Pippen as an all-around great player but so is Drexler - he's just better on the more important end of the court.

Pippen is next - I need Gervin to at least be decent at that end & anecdotes + data tell me he's below average. The difference between Pippen's offense & Gervin's offense is a lot closer than Pippen's Defense & Gervin's Defense.

Barry goes next - spent too much time in a weak ABA and I don't know what kind of stock to put in those monster #'s - the big thing keeping him in this for me is the carry job on the '75 W's - even though the NBA at that time is much weaker than anything Drexler/Pippen had to compete with, it's a hell of a carry job, even though he only won the title because the NBA/ABA weren't merged (Kentucky was probably better) and Kareem broke his hand punching a basket and his dumpster fire of a team went 3-14 without him. So, there's kind of an asterisk with that title but it still happened.

Gervin will go afterwards with Hondo in the back.

Why no Elgin? I feel he's very hard to build around and there's a good amount of years where you could argue his shooting volume is detrimental to the team. Including the shooting data was not helping his case for me - if anything it made it worse because I didn't feel like I was getting many great years. Looking at the impact over the career, it's hard to make a strong case that he was truly a high impact guy outside of 2-3 years.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GP (I'll be voting for him before Pippen & the A-Train): Very underrated, imo. I'll lead off with an outstanding elimination/closeout track record (which is far superior to Nash's).
22.8 PPG, 5.8 reb, 8.0 ast, 1.8 stl, 0.2 blk, 2.7 TO, 55.3% TS - all stats from '94-'03.
Had a knack for outplaying other strong point guards when it mattered because of his outstanding defensive presence and is one of very few point guards whose defensive impact is highlighted that he's the only one to win DPOY. A true all around player who averaged 21-8-5 during his prime while bringing elite defense and averaged 24-8-5 during the playoffs and had a tendency of showing up when it mattered. Has more Win Shares & VORP (the latter by a lot) vs. Nash (for example) even though one of Payton's best seasons ('99) was a lockout shortened one. His playoff prime #'s are actually understated because he didn't get to play as many games at his peak due to playing on some garbage teams.

GP isn't getting any other sort of traction, so I should probably address the two issues likely to crop up:

1) The Denver series. There's no justification for it. It really is indefensible. 3 of those games are in my elimination/closeout records and his 2 worst performances in those types of games were in the Denver series (Games 3 & 5).
1A) The '95 LA Series. Van Exel out played him. Between '94 & '95 these were two years where a Title was in play for Seattle and they didn't just take a dump on the bed, they got up and smeared it on the wall as well :noway:

That said - those series did factor into the overall playoff and elimination record I showed above - and the overall track record is strong. It's unfortunate that he peaked later than a lot of other point guards did - and by the time he peaked the talent on him was not championship caliber to say the least; if you consider '99 or 2000 his peak, it was an outright dumpster fire situation.

2) His RPAM numbers are not as good as they could be. I'm not a huge fan of +/- stats but I can't ignore them either.

'97 & '98 are very strong - '99 for some reason isn't great - but I suspect team context (middling overall record, was out there for virtually all meaningful minutes - 2,010 minutes in a 50 game season is a ton) - even though 2000 bounces back. '01-'03 are basically flat even though WIn Shares & VORP remain at very high levels in '01 & '02 in particular. I don't think his '03 season has tremendous impact - and I think his defense was starting to slip in '01 & '02. It was probably still good - but not necessarily warranting the All D honors he received either.

I'm OK with this wart because I don't think RPAM stats do a great job of explaining elite players' impact who play huge minutes on basically .500 teams - it feels like a "blind spot" for the model - moreso in the years I'm referencing than some of the later years. The inconsistency from '99 to '00 in the metric is odd even though his other performance indicators are fairly comparable and I've read some of the multi-year work in this area - which makes me trust the '99 number less. I'm definitely aware of the flaws in the '97-'00 data vs. other years, but I do think it's important to at least speak to the wart.

I take Payton over Kidd (by a nose) due to a stronger peak & stronger playoff performances - particularly in closeout/elimination settings. I take both over Frazier because Frazier has a material amount of fewer strong years.
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At this point, Artis is the best center left and it's not really close. No one else left matches his combination of peak + longevity.

I've watched some game tapes of him and it's not the most exciting thing to watch. You're just watching a big guy play who (in some years) moves with less agility than my 61 year old Dad and you can't help thinking "why didn't he do more" "why didn't he win more titles"? He was a turnover machine to boot and after '77 his defensive impact gets questionable. I get it. Set that aside for a second.

10 year prime: 21-15-3 blocks/60% TS. Is it troubling that his team lost 50 + 3 straight years in what should have been his prime? Of course. Is it troubling that Chicago finished in the bottom third of the league 3 straight times in defensive efficiency with someone who's calling card is defensive impact? Absolutely - although to be fair, those teams were a mess.

But he still has a robust post prime where he played a key role on some strong Spurs teams and that post prime includes 3 all-star squads. There's a few guys I need to see in before he will get some serious traction from me but we're in range where I don't think you're crazy if you're giving him support.

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Pick: Clyde Drexler
Alternate: Gary Payton

Post #19 » by **trex_8063** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:50 am

Transplanting this here.....

Senior wrote:Would "players worth discussing on this all-time list" work better? It's true we've got the Robert Horrys going around for the $ but do you disagree that the superstars are almost always gunning for the title?

I do disagree with the bolded part, yes. Without quibbling on definition of "superstar", if I can just refer to players who are "more than mere role players".....

Joe Johnson jumped ship from PHX rather than play 2nd (or 3rd) fiddle with Nash---imo clearly passing up on his best opportunity for a ring----because it was more important to him at the time to be "the man" on his own team.

Kyrie Irving wants to get out from underneath Lebron's shadow presently. Now as it turns out, it's looking like he might end up in San Antonio, where he'll likely have a BETTER chance to contend; however, he didn't have SA sending him love letters when he requested a trade. And knowing that Golden State is one place he would absolutely NOT end up at (there's no way they'd look to mess up what they have to try and make room for Kyrie), can we say that throwing a dart at the other 28 teams in the league provides a better chance to contend than staying on with Lebron and Love? I don't think so, personally.

I see the vast majority of stars NOT caving on their personal salaries, even when doing so would give them a better chance of contending.

And then there are the countless examples of things stars have done which were detrimental to their chances for a title, whether it was "intentional" or not.....

Adrian Dantley had difficulty meshing on a winner, difficulty sharing the ball and deferring on offense.....and he got pushed off of a contender Detroit team as a result.

Kobe and Shaq couldn't work out their differences and broke up a proven contender recipe (perhaps squandered one of the years they WERE together, too).

Dennis Rodman self-destructed on the Spurs in '95 in the WCF, when they had a good chance to contend for a title.

DeMarcus Cousins will not be a relevant winner until he can stop being a sullen jerk and gives consistent effort on defense---(Disclaimer: I am NOT saying those Kings teams would have automatically been winners or contenders if he'd done that)----but so far he shows no indication to do those things.

Charles Barkley likely could have had better chances if he'd taken better care of himself (his weight); Shaq too, for that matter.

Larry Bird implies in one of his biographies that Cedric Maxwell showed little interest in repeating as a contender and much more interest in getting the deal/salary he was after.

Anyway, I'm sure we can come up with many others, but you get the idea. So no, I do not agree that everything players do they do with the intention of winning a title in mind. I see them very regularly doing things that damage their chances on the basis of selfishness, egotism, laziness, or other human frailties.

pandrade83 · Post #20 » by **pandrade83** » Thu Aug 17, 2017 1:51 am

Doctor MJ wrote:Not voting yet, but the main guys I'm considering are:

Gilmore
Reggie
Pippen
Hondo
Barry
Frazier

I'm not considering Kidd because I've sided with Frazier.
I'm not considering Paul Pierce because I've got Reggie over Pierce, I feel questionable about having Hondo on my list but not having Pierce.

Rick Barry has been sticking in my mind over the past day. Of the players in question, he's the most clear cut alpha superstar in his approach, and the reality is that no one had a larger role on a champion team, and he also had a longevity edge at least compared to Frazier.

So I suppose I'd say that I'm leaning toward Barry, but still want to hear the opinions of others very much.

In my commentary of Barry, I acknowledged the amazing carry job that he pulled off in getting the chip in '75. But that title doesn't happen in a merged league or if Kareem doesn't break his hand. Ugh.