Orlando offseason in review on the trade board

[HartfordWhalers]

I just wanted to stop in and invite you all to check out the Orlando Offseason in Review on the trade board --
Orlando Grades spanned from two C- to one B+, with a B, a C+ and a C filling in the range. Win predictions were similarly dispersed, with estimates of 27, 28, 31, 32, 34 and 38.

It is part of a series of reviews we do https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1602893 with the Magic being the 6th posted so far (Boston/Philly/Nets/Toronto/Knicks)

And for those interested in track record, the TnT board did this the past two years before this one (but with different posters in 2015 in particular):

2016-- https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1469046

[ChosenSavior]

Thanks for the write up. Very interesting perspectives. I like seeing that from non-fans of the Magic. I disagree regarding the fit of Jonathon Simmons though but I will admit that I am from San Antonio and watch a lot of Spurs games and his talent always intrigued me. Not ashamed to be a homer for him and personally I think he is going to fit in very well with the Magic.

[magicman112]

Thanks for the write up. Very interesting perspectives. I like seeing that from non-fans of the Magic. I disagree regarding the fit of Jonathon Simmons though but I will admit that I am from San Antonio and watch a lot of Spurs games and his talent always intrigued me. Not ashamed to be a homer for him and personally I think he is going to fit in very well with the Magic.

I think Simmons could be a difference maker. Not saying he's going to have an all-star season or anything but he's a guy who's had to work hard for what he's gotten. That's what's been missing on this team, veterans that are professional lunch pail kind of guys to set an example for the young players and hold them accountable.

[pepe1991]

Magic really need some bang and new energy to become relevant.
Guess who is only nba team who isn't on NBA 2K 18 trailer? Yep, Magic. 0 Nationally televised games ?

I gave Magic offseason C+ because i hope Simmons has more to offer.

[tiderulz]

felt like a lot of hate on Orlando. pretty typical from the trade board on our players

[N.O.R.E.]

In a league where more than half the teams make the playoffs, a subpar team is exposed for what it is.

I don't think anyone has an agenda against Magic players. Your team hasn't been very good for years, and is obviously lacking a true blue chip/potential franchise building block.

[Def Swami]

In a league where more than half the teams make the playoffs, a subpar team is exposed for what it is.

I don't think anyone has an agenda against Magic players. Your team hasn't been very good for years, and is obviously lacking a true blue chip/potential franchise building block.

That's essentially the problem with the Magic. Most of the conversations around them are moot or irrelevant until they can figure this piece out. Despite them making some positive off-season moves, it doesn't change much in the grand scheme.

[EAS Law]

In a league where more than half the teams make the playoffs, a subpar team is exposed for what it is.

I don't think anyone has an agenda against Magic players. Your team hasn't been very good for years, and is obviously lacking a true blue chip/potential franchise building block.

That's a fair point about the Magic, but the constant benefit of the doubt that the 76ers, Knicks, Lakers, Pelicans, Pistons, Nuggets and Jazz get, to name a few, is peculiar.

I think people generally enjoy when other teams fall off or lose their star because it makes them feel better about their team/prospects regardless of whether or not there is sound reason to suspect that the other team is any good at all.

Your points about the Magic are valid, but I would say that every trade or draft choice of ours since Oladipo has been met with an active hope of failure by fans of other teams on the GB and elsewhere whether or not our fortune impacts their season.

[bargnanimvp]

In a league where more than half the teams make the playoffs, a subpar team is exposed for what it is.

I don't think anyone has an agenda against Magic players. Your team hasn't been very good for years, and is obviously lacking a true blue chip/potential franchise building block.

That's essentially the problem with the Magic. Most of the conversations around them are moot or irrelevant until they can figure this piece out. Despite them making some positive off-season moves, it doesn't change much in the grand scheme.

Even worse was that we were building with talent over fit, not being able to lure a star here is one thing but we've looked even wore than we have been because when we had some young exciting prospects our rosters been a dumpster fire in terms of how they they fit together

[HartfordWhalers]

felt like a lot of hate on Orlando. pretty typical from the trade board on our players

Just seeing this comment now after the bump, and I will say I'm a bit surprised to see this perspective. After all, last year the trade board was accused of the same thing, rather vehemently. It turned out that the boards predictions instead were overly optimistic about the Magic and predicted more success and wins than the team would achieve.

If I recall, you personally seemed rather upset that the predictions were of only 38 wins.

Meanwhile, when reflecting back on some of the bigger issues raised last year:
-- PG needed upgrading to really be win now
-- Gordon should not have been slotted down to sf (making spacing issues worse)
-- Jeff Green was never worth the money
-- Biyombo was a bad fit with Ibaka

How far off was the board because of its hate? I feel pretty good on points like that, that the trade board perspective was not so much biased as hating as it was less inclined to find the most favorable outcome.

For instance, your stance at the time was that Gordon was 'all SF', and you weren't exactly bashful when disagreeing with people either:

you dont seem to have really watched Gordon play if you call him a PF. his game is all SF, he isnt great at post defense, his man defense at the perimeter is 10x better. He has better ball handling, has issues with bigger, thicker PF's moving him for position.

Good god, Gordon's best case scenario is Serge Ibaka. He doesn't have the ball handling, passing or shooting skill to play sf. If you put him at the 3 you have three lumps who cannot put there ball on the floor and not turn it over.

If he can switch on defense to smaller guys and guard them well, that's an advantage but using him permanently to play a defensive sf is basically limiting his quickness as he is rapid quick for a PF but average for a sf.

glad to see you know exactly what a 20 yr old, just scratching the surface player has a best case for. you must sit in the draft room for the Lakers, you seem to have all the answers better than anyone who is actually paid to develop players and do this for a living

Now in this year's review it seems you have come more around to the trade board's perspective that was worth attacking up in arms last year:

we want to see him at PF all year to determine that. Post All-star break he put up 16/6 looking more comfortable at PF than at SF. Need to see him the full year at PF.

I'm really not sure anyone posting a review has any reason to be a rival and predisposed to hate Orlando, so I would much rather see discussions about what takes were wrong this year so we can look back again and see how we all fared in a year.

Looking at this year's review, what disagreements would you see were the board has unfair hate? Most of the reviewers were positive on the Simmons signing even if I wasn't for instance, and the board loved the Isaac pick while some Orlando posters would have preferred DSJ.

I see you think Isaac can play some center which would be a disagreement I guess, but what other ones are there?


But yeah, I don't see any systematic bias against Orlando, although possibly that is just because I'm stuck in the middle of it?

[tiderulz]

felt like a lot of hate on Orlando. pretty typical from the trade board on our players

Just seeing this comment now after the bump, and I will say I'm a bit surprised to see this perspective. After all, last year the trade board was accused of the same thing, rather vehemently. It turned out that the boards predictions instead were overly optimistic about the Magic and predicted more success and wins than the team would achieve.

If I recall, you personally seemed rather upset that the predictions were of only 38 wins.

Meanwhile, when reflecting back on some of the bigger issues raised last year:
-- PG needed upgrading to really be win now
-- Gordon should not have been slotted down to sf (making spacing issues worse)
-- Jeff Green was never worth the money
-- Biyombo was a bad fit with Ibaka

How far off was the board because of its hate? I feel pretty good on points like that, that the trade board perspective was not so much biased as hating as it was less inclined to find the most favorable outcome.

For instance, your stance at the time was that Gordon was 'all SF', and you weren't exactly bashful when disagreeing with people either:

Good god, Gordon's best case scenario is Serge Ibaka. He doesn't have the ball handling, passing or shooting skill to play sf. If you put him at the 3 you have three lumps who cannot put there ball on the floor and not turn it over.

If he can switch on defense to smaller guys and guard them well, that's an advantage but using him permanently to play a defensive sf is basically limiting his quickness as he is rapid quick for a PF but average for a sf.

glad to see you know exactly what a 20 yr old, just scratching the surface player has a best case for. you must sit in the draft room for the Lakers, you seem to have all the answers better than anyone who is actually paid to develop players and do this for a living

Now in this year's review it seems you have come more around to the trade board's perspective that was worth attacking up in arms last year:

we want to see him at PF all year to determine that. Post All-star break he put up 16/6 looking more comfortable at PF than at SF. Need to see him the full year at PF.

I'm really not sure anyone posting a review has any reason to be a rival and predisposed to hate Orlando, so I would much rather see discussions about what takes were wrong this year so we can look back again and see how we all fared in a year.

Looking at this year's review, what disagreements would you see were the board has unfair hate? Most of the reviewers were positive on the Simmons signing even if I wasn't for instance, and the board loved the Isaac pick while some Orlando posters would have preferred DSJ.

I see you think Isaac can play some center which would be a disagreement I guess, but what other ones are there?


But yeah, I don't see any systematic bias against Orlando, although possibly that is just because I'm stuck in the middle of it?

going into last season, i did think they were going to make a jump. I didnt think Ibaka was going to be a quiet cancer like it looks like he became from reports after he was traded. And i did think that Gordon could make the move to SF. I guess i just didnt realize how bad he is on offense. I figured that if MKG has been able to make a go of it at SF, Gordon could too. Shows how much i was wrong on that.

But, I am allowed my opinion. And the people that wrote up the reviews, I have seen been, in my opinion, unduly harsh on Orlando for years. Slava and Bondom in particular.

maybe im wrong, i thought it was Bondom that cr#$ped on Dipo for awhile and said no way is he getting Ibaka and then promptly changed his tune once he was on OKC's team. there is another OKC mod, so maybe i am confusing the 2.

[HartfordWhalers]

But, I am allowed my opinion.

Oh definitely. And I wouldn't be engaging if I wasn't curious what it was and to see where it differs from mine. I've definitely had my fair share of wrong opinions over the years. I just don't think they have been systematically off about Orlando. And I will punt on being willing to debate if Slava or Bondom have been, as that requires looking into their takes more than I'm interested to while I'm lagging on a Miami review that is going to be negative after loving their 2016 offseason (which weirdly will have me opposite their fans two years straight).

But I am curious what are the current points of debate:
-- Which Orlando players should and shouldn't be traded for instance? (I was open to anyone but Isaac, but thought the market for Payton won't make it worth it)
-- Or put another way, what building blocks does Orlando currently have? (Just Isaac for me)
-- Isaac versus DSJ and where Isaac will ultimately play (Loved the pick, but definitely see him as a pf making Gordon more expendable)
-- How far away is Orlando? (Years....)
-- Was Simmons a good signing? (I say a not so emphatic no. I would rather have taken 5m cash and a 2nd rounder and McRoberts from Miami and have the guaranteed flip value of the cap space, than worry about flipping Simmons later and his spacing makes playing him with Gordon Payton Biyombo not great short run, least of all long run. But most reviewers disagreed with me and liked it)
-- What else?

[PennytoShaq]

In a league where more than half the teams make the playoffs, a subpar team is exposed for what it is.

I don't think anyone has an agenda against Magic players. Your team hasn't been very good for years, and is obviously lacking a true blue chip/potential franchise building block.

Agree. I firmly believe Isaac will be that guy to build around, but it may take a little time. Measurements aside, one thing I really find promising about him is how efficient he already plays for being so young.

[bondom34]

I'm just glad to know that nobody can look into things and gain information without hating a team. I guess it is better to blindly keep saying wrong things than to adjust.

Also interesting that my change by gaining information ended up being correct and Ibaka wasn't magically going to transform a defense. All while the team he left ended up being fantastic defensively with Oladipo a key to it. That doesn't feel like hating, but accuracy.

[tiderulz]

But, I am allowed my opinion.

Oh definitely. And I wouldn't be engaging if I wasn't curious what it was and to see where it differs from mine. I've definitely had my fair share of wrong opinions over the years. I just don't think they have been systematically off about Orlando. And I will punt on being willing to debate if Slava or Bondom have been, as that requires looking into their takes more than I'm interested to while I'm lagging on a Miami review that is going to be negative after loving their 2016 offseason (which weirdly will have me opposite their fans two years straight).

But I am curious what are the current points of debate:
-- Which Orlando players should and shouldn't be traded for instance? (I was open to anyone but Isaac, but thought the market for Payton won't make it worth it)
-- Or put another way, what building blocks does Orlando currently have? (Just Isaac for me)
-- Isaac versus DSJ and where Isaac will ultimately play (Loved the pick, but definitely see him as a pf making Gordon more expendable)
-- How far away is Orlando? (Years....)
-- Was Simmons a good signing? (I say a not so emphatic no. I would rather have taken 5m cash and a 2nd rounder and McRoberts from Miami and have the guaranteed flip value of the cap space, than worry about flipping Simmons later and his spacing makes playing him with Gordon Payton Biyombo not great short run, least of all long run. But most reviewers disagreed with me and liked it)
-- What else?

Which Orlando players should or shouldnt be traded? i would be open to trade anyone but Isaac also
Building blocks? Isaac. Fournier (gets undue hate imo)
Isaac vs DSJ? we need an upgrade at PG. And whether that is Elf finally getting his shot in order (and cutting his hair) or someone like DSJ, it is needed. I dont know if Isaac will be this unicorn that people seem to think he is. If he isnt, i think we regret passing on DSJ big time. and DSJ is someone that i think will draw other people to play with him. I dont know if Isaac will be the same.
How far away is Orlando? i agree, years.
Was Simmons a good signing? I think yes. i see him as bringing an attitude and fight for everything. at worse, he raises the bench level production if he isnt a starter. I think he could be moved if we have to.

I think we have to move Bismack, but i dont see it happening with that contract Hennigan gave him. I am not opposed to keeping Gordon, but it has to be a reasonable contract. And if Isaac cant be a wing, we need a major SF upgrade.

[BadMofoPimp]

I think Orlando's future just may depend on how Isaac, AG and Elf develop. If their ceilings only end up as average or slightly above NBA starters, then there will be much more hate from Fans inside and outside Orlando. Desperate times indeed.

[PennytoShaq]

But, I am allowed my opinion.

Oh definitely. And I wouldn't be engaging if I wasn't curious what it was and to see where it differs from mine. I've definitely had my fair share of wrong opinions over the years. I just don't think they have been systematically off about Orlando. And I will punt on being willing to debate if Slava or Bondom have been, as that requires looking into their takes more than I'm interested to while I'm lagging on a Miami review that is going to be negative after loving their 2016 offseason (which weirdly will have me opposite their fans two years straight).

But I am curious what are the current points of debate:
-- Which Orlando players should and shouldn't be traded for instance? (I was open to anyone but Isaac, but thought the market for Payton won't make it worth it)
-- Or put another way, what building blocks does Orlando currently have? (Just Isaac for me)
-- Isaac versus DSJ and where Isaac will ultimately play (Loved the pick, but definitely see him as a pf making Gordon more expendable)
-- How far away is Orlando? (Years....)
-- Was Simmons a good signing? (I say a not so emphatic no. I would rather have taken 5m cash and a 2nd rounder and McRoberts from Miami and have the guaranteed flip value of the cap space, than worry about flipping Simmons later and his spacing makes playing him with Gordon Payton Biyombo not great short run, least of all long run. But most reviewers disagreed with me and liked it)
-- What else?

-Anyone but Isaac and maybe Gordon. Gordon is on his last year, so he may not get enough value back.

- Yes, Isaac for now, but still possibly Gordon and Elf. That is why the FO did not make extreme changes. I think they are right in giving these 2 guys another shot, since they are still on rookie deals.Additionally, I am sure they think Isaac and AG can play next to each other since Isaac can shoot 3s and defend every position on the floor. AG is basically a PF, but Isaac plays the wing on offense and can guard about anyone on D.The biggest question will be dribble penetration for both of those guys, but AG is bouncy off the dribble against slower PFs and Isaac already has the pull up J advantage due to his length and height.

- DSJ looks great, but he would not have made a huge difference for us compared to Isaac. It's like Bledsoe when he went to the Suns. They still sucked, but Bledsoe was putting up real nice numbers and playing all-star offensive basketball. Did it make free agents want to come there and change the franchise? No. I think DSJ is a little overrated here because we have not had good PG play since Jameer. But PG is the deepest position in the NBA, and the Magic can find a guy to pair with Isaac easier then they can find a 7 foot unicorn style player who fits the modern "postion-less" NBA perfectly. That is why I believe they picked Isaac over DSJ and most critics rated that move positively. The real travesty was teams picking after the Magic who let DSJ fall that far. the Knicks could have had DSJ to Porzingis. That would have really been something fun to witness.

- far from what - playoffs? I think they right the ship and make playoffs by next season. The biggest change I am seeing is the culture of the team is now being defined a lot better. The bench we have is made of actual vet leaders who will compete every night and help us win games that we lost last year. They have a shot at playoffs this year since the East is so bad, and they have the depth to possibly be a little better than expected. The fear is that Vogel will overplay the vet players and not develop the young guys enough.

- Simmons was a very good signing and it's not that debatable to me. The main reason is the deal itself is a lot lower than people were thinking he would get. This was universally lauded as a financial win. But the reason it's not a debate for me is because the Magic need a guy who plays with heart. They had no heart at all last year. There are some posters who will just talk about stats and discount the intangibles, but when you have a guy like Simmons who is out there doing work every night, that is the stuff that energizes a team. Adding him to the mix with young guys like Isaac and AG, and it creates a culture of heart and hustle, which is what the Magic will have to play with this season. I watched Simmons last season and just thought it would be amazing to actually get him, but I never imagined it would happen.

Main thing we get from Simmons immediately is an upgraded perimeter defense. This is a guy who can play with Isaac Gordon and Biz and suddenly people will see Biz's value on the defensive end a lot more. I also think this is why Mack was brought in. He was cheap and he is a hard worker on defense. Not the best defender, but he puts in work. So now you have 5 guys out there who want to defend and can do it at a high level. This is good for development since Simmons, Isaac and Gordon will have to step up their offense to balance things out. The question is - can they? I believe that Simmons and Isaac will improve offensively over the season, but this will be a major test for Gordon. If he does not deliver, I think he will be moved.

To me, this was a B- offseason.Not super exciting, but the signings were all very smart. We had a "wow, how did we pull that off?" deal with Simmons, and the highest ceiling draft pick available. Trading the 2nd 1st rounder was deflating for people, but that money went towards getting guys like Aaron and Speights, and they will make a much bigger difference to the team. At least that is what the FO believes, and I trust them over anyone here for now. These guys have a pretty solid track record, and with Lloyd (a guy who about everyone wanted to be the GM) at the helm, I think we had a very good handle on the draft this year.

[PennytoShaq]

I'm just glad to know that nobody can look into things and gain information without hating a team. I guess it is better to blindly keep saying wrong things than to adjust.

Also interesting that my change by gaining information ended up being correct and Ibaka wasn't magically going to transform a defense. All while the team he left ended up being fantastic defensively with Oladipo a key to it. That doesn't feel like hating, but accuracy.

It's kind of like how many of us accurately predicted that Oladipo would not improve much at all, especially at shooting and making layups and how you argued that as well. So it goes both ways. Oladipo would have killed your team long term with that contract, and the playoffs really magnified that. Basically, you guys said - Ibaka is not that great and we said Oladipo is not that great and we were both correct.

Presti's miracle trade for PG13 may have been the greatest trade I have ever seen. To get PG13 for Oladipo was a crime. I would honestly boycott the team if I was a Pacer's fan.

[GatorbaitDD]

Here's the deal...

The magic do not have any cornerstone for the franchise. Hopefully Isaac can become that player, but the jury is out. As a fan base, we overvalue guys like Vucevic. If there was a legit market for Vuc, he'd already of been moved. The reality is you're looking at a second round value and he's too solid to move for that price. I'm not contradicting myself, good player, bad value as the league is moving away from bigs that cannot shoot the 3 or defend at a high level.

The guy that can net the most value back for the Magic imo is AG (minus Isaac). Do not be surprised if he is moved this season. It's not a knock on AG, he can be a really solid player in the right system. The issue is that our one bright hope (Isaac) projects at the same position as AG and AG is due for an extension. It's now or never to get the most value out of AG imo, otherwise we potentially commit 8 figures to a guy that has not proven he can be a productive starter in the NBA on a winning club.

The guy we underrate the most is Fournier. Young, capable of playing two spots, and the one elite bucket getter on this squad. Byiombo and Augustine hamstring the team the most financially. I expect one to be moved in an AG deal.

Payton - we need to pray he plays his ass off this season, because we need him to be our guy at the point guard spot to turn this thing around within the next couple years.

Simmons/Ross - great rotation pieces for a contender. Not so great for a developing team. Also on the block by seasons end.

[bondom34]

I'm just glad to know that nobody can look into things and gain information without hating a team. I guess it is better to blindly keep saying wrong things than to adjust.

Also interesting that my change by gaining information ended up being correct and Ibaka wasn't magically going to transform a defense. All while the team he left ended up being fantastic defensively with Oladipo a key to it. That doesn't feel like hating, but accuracy.

It's kind of like how many of us accurately predicted that Oladipo would not improve much at all, especially at shooting and making layups and how you argued that as well. So it goes both ways. Oladipo would have killed your team long term with that contract, and the playoffs really magnified that. Basically, you guys said - Ibaka is not that great and we said Oladipo is not that great and we were both correct.

Presti's miracle trade for PG13 may have been the greatest trade I have ever seen. To get PG13 for Oladipo was a crime. I would honestly boycott the team if I was a Pacer's fan.

Except...

1.Oladipo was actuallyvery good. Top 7 in RPM for SGs and was at timesbetter than Roberson defensively.
2. I don't remember saying he would become good at finishing, and his 3 point shot was actually quite good.

Oladipo was actually a high impact player last year, and it was backed up by all of OKCs lineup data. Ibaka as predicted was not. Again as shown bythe data,and I really don't knoq why you think Oladipo was not

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