Miami Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Chris Bosh (cap hit)
Losses:
Willie Reed
Josh McRoberts
Luke Babbitt
Draft:
#14 Bam Adebayo
Trades:
Josh McRoberts, '23 2nd and $5.1m for A.J. Hammons.
Free Agency:
James Johnson 4/60m (last year PO)
Dion Waiters 4/47.3m
Kelly Olynyk 4/45.6m (last year PO)
Udonis Haslem 1/2.3m
Matt Williams min nongtd
Derrick Walton Jr. two-way contract.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
SG: Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Matt Williams
SF: Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Okaro White
PF: Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson
C: Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo, A.J. Hammons, Udonis Haslem
HartfordWhalers wrote:HartfordWhalers Review
Key Losses:
I included that the Bosh cap hit finally came off as a key loss, to note the importance of clearing that hurdle, getting certainty on it and the source of the cap room spent this summer. That said, how it was spent is the real question.
Losses:
Willie Reed was surprisingly useful, and the reason why teams should take those fliers instead of playing a 41 year old Tony Battie.
Draft:
BAM! Hard to resist doing that. There were a couple of raw athletic bigs that looked interesting, and Miami being the place for one of them wasn't something I saw coming. That said, I don't think the team is so good they should be filling in the cracks with a better fitting TJ Leaf versus swinging for the upside and best prospect regardless of fit. So, good on Miami and lets see how it works out. I'm not envisioning anything too remarkable -- he is raw and Whiteside should hold down most minutes -- but he might end up with first year production like a Pascal Siakiam (a consistent 15 mpg and close to 4/4 in it) while never having huge flash to get noticed? The more interesting scenario is if he starts to look really intriguing as a trade chip...
Trades:
I'm okay with the idea of spending cash and a 2nd to clear McRoberts. But then I think that all it really did was keep Ellington around and I feel a lot more meh. Maybe Hammons will be one of those trade throw in steals?
Free Agency:
Miami's offseason was all about their free agency, and to an extent that topic has come up previously, I'm going to be repeating myself.
Last offseason, Miami saved cap room and all of their flexibility for this summer. And for going forward. The point was to make a Durant move. Failing that, a Horford move. But the point was to not putter around with okay players, and instead get a difference maker. When it came to playing out the season, I thought it would mean a worse record than it did, but the team performed admirably with the spare parts around Dragic and Whiteside. Now, fast forward a year later and Miami seem to have surveyed the landscape and decided to lock in on those over-performing spare parts and upgrade pf with Olynyk. Maybe they added a handful of wins, but they didn't get a clear difference maker of a player.
If the goal was solidifying a 3-7 seed and a consistent playoff berth, it would be an A- of an offseason. If the attitude is
then I'm not sure how it isn't an F.
I quoted this previously, but one of my favorite things to come out of Hinkie era was the quote:
(You don’t get to the moon by climbing a tree)
And Zach Lowe confirms it:
This offseason, Miami decided that climbing the biggest tree they could was better than sitting in the backyard wondering how they get to the moon.
There is a pragmatism to that. But the dream of a Miami championship contender now feels like a raisin in the sun.
I don' buy that Waiters and James Johnson are easily moveable, and possibly even assets. These are the big non-star contracts that take up the bulk of the cap while giving replicable production. And each player has some game deficiencies that I expect to continue, but look much worse when being paid 8 figures a year.
The optimal market for one year cap roll overs is interesting. It is all a question of what you can get the next year, and you need to make a case that it will be better than what you just got. So, a stagnant 35 win team isn't a team that should do it (Orlando). But a 20 win team that sees itself at 30 wins the next season, or a 30 win team that sees itself at 40 should do it (Philly past two years and Sac a year ago although that didn't work out, but when you have that variability it is a good time for short term deals). Isn't Miami a stagnant 40 (to 45) win team? If so, then they are right for these long run deals. But I dislike paying two of the players as much as they got, and have a real but outside chance that Miami is just a disgruntled All Star free agent from being a 50+ win team.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
I look at that chart and expect more trades.
Needs:
OKC to fall apart and a PG trade to Miami for Winslow(+) while the league blocks PG from signing with the Lakers, setting up the perfect re-signed PG scenario.
Third team in a Boston for star trade where they get Crowder and give up Bam type move, getting better vets than they should have that fit their roster perfectly at a lower cost than expected because the team trading to Boston is wanting the rawest of raw players.
Some other rabbit pulled out of a hat
Health.
Waiters becoming what I think he cannot.
Or perhaps just lowered long run expectations
Additional Thoughts:
I actually think getting Crowder in a deal like above is possible. Or PG if OKC falls apart (looking at you Westbrook unsigned extension). Can you make the case that turning Oladipo/Sabonis into Bam/Winslow is a win for a rebuilding OKC? Of course you can. And if things break right for Miami re-signing him, isn't a Paul George worth those two?
What about something around Lance Thomas for Ellington just for roster balance?
Projected Win/Loss: 41-41 Yes, I have them same as last year. I'm probably a win too low, but until I have 30 team win predictions I'm not going to refine it in perfect and I'm not expecting more than a win one lose one type team, even with the East having a talent void. And i might even move them to just 40 wins.
Off-Season Grade: D+
Ultimately my review will read harsh because I think Miami is one of the franchises that has a market, has a draw and can become one of the half dozen teams with a real shot at a title in a given year. This offseason made me convinced that Miami won't be one of those teams in the next few years minus a move that will if anything be hampered by this offseason. It doesn't have to be first or last, but when you have a chance (at having a chance) at first you need to nurture that chance, or at the very least not trade it away for an 8 figure Dion Waiters and James Johnson.
cl2117 wrote:cl2117 Review
Key Losses:
Chris Bosh (cap hit)
I think it's really good for the Heat to have a resolution on this issue. I feel for Bosh because you know he wants to play and I'm sure the Heat would rather have him than the cap space, but they needed some finality in this regard and now they have it.
Losses:
No other real losses of consequence.
Draft:
I give them a A- for Bam. Love the pick.
I think he's got really nice upside with his skillset and I had him as BPA. He'll serve as nice depth for the Heat and he'll have potential to develop behind Whiteside. His fit isn't outstanding, but I think he and Kelly Olynyk would be a really interesting pairing in the frontcourt.
Trades:
I think they definitely got the better of the Mavs in terms of value on the McRoberts deal. They needed to clear the space to make their FA moves and I really thought it'd cost them more to do it. One of the more underrated cap space moves of the offseason.
Free Agency:
Overall I kind of like what they've done in terms of putting together an interesting team with a solid floor and some upside, but the fact that they're now capped out for a couple years with only a team whose upside still likely falls short of any sort of real playoff success makes me question whether the long term damage is far greater than the short term gain.
"B"- Olynyk: I have a soft spot for Olynyk, so maybe the grade needs to be taken with a grain of salt, but I think the contract numbers are solid and I really like his fit. If he's in rotations with Hassan and Bam I think he'll really have a chance to shine. They're great defensive pairings with Kelly and if he's less hesitant getting his shots up, I can see this really working out nicely.
"C"- Waiters: I have a larger problem on what the Waiters signing means for their future than for the actual contract he got. Similar to the THJ trade, while I don't like the signing, if you're going to overpay a guy like Dion you might as well overpay for his prime. And on the plus side 4/47 is not even in the same stratosphere as the THJ deal as far as overpays go.
"D"- Johnson: This was the real head scratcher for me. I just don't see JJ as being worth 4/60. His performance in Miami last year was more likely an aberration than it will be the new norm for him over this contract. Seems like they managed to get him to overhaul his body which resulted in such a good year, but I expect diminishing returns in that regard as he gets older.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
How can you justify paying Johnson 4/60 and playing him behind Olynyk who you just gave 4/45 to?
Needs:
Justise Winslow to learn to shoot
Dion Waiters to keep balling
James Johnson to defy the odds
Justise is the only guy on that roster that I think has a realistic possibility of really breaking out. Everyone else on the roster (outside of Bam) is a fairly known commodity. This team has a ceiling and if they expect to have any chance to push through it Winslow is going to need to get on the Kawai/Jimmy Butler trajectory rather than the MKG/KCP type he's on now. With future firsts traded as well, he and Bam may be their best chances to strike gold for some time.
What did I really like about their offseason? The fact that the team they put together is solid, should be fun to watch and relatively competitive. For those things to remain true Dion and JJ need to stay to last year's form. I don't think that's likely, but it's necessary if they are going to actually make the playoffs this time around.
Additional Thoughts:
When are they going to rebuild? This team leaves them with a fairly firm ceiling, they've got limited avenues to continue to improve and they're capped out. I don't know how they go up from here, which leaves only one eventuality.
Projected Win/Loss: 43-39
They end up as the 6th seed this year.
Off-Season Grade: C+
I feel very similarly to the Raptors offseason, except while the Raptors did slightly worse than maintaining the status quo, the Heat did slightly better with the addition of Olynyk. I also give them a bump because I'm a big fan of the Bam draft pick.
bondom34 wrote:Bondom34's Miami Offseason Review
Key Losses:
Losses:
Pretty much every loss and key loss for the Heat was in the form of the cap hit they moved on from. This was an absolute ton of money to play with for a team that didn't start with much when Bosh was on the books, and moving McBob even cleared more. The price for it was steep, but no on court impact was really made here.
Draft:
If Summer league is any indication Bam looks like he might be a late lotto steal with the ability to guard well on the perimeter for a big and to be decent offensively to boot. I'm hopeful he's as good as he looked and would be a big get for a team that needs some top end talent.
Trades:
This felt to me like a little bit of an overpay. McRoberts is certainly not good and certainly overpaid but giving a full $5.1 mil and a second with him seemed like more than I thought they'd need given they took a little back. It cleared space, but I think it was a little much to give up.
Free Agency:
This is where it got weird and tougher for me to grade well. I liked them going for Hayward, but after missing they overpaid Johnson and maybe Waiters. I like Dion a ton as a person but I don't know if his season was a fluke or the start of something new, as he showed flashes of this late year in OKC and looked decent for a while last year too. But I'm not sure he's an average starter and this is at least average to above average starter money. Olynk is a fine contract, he's an underrated big who can shoot a bit and defend passably despite some physical limitations. But I think with bringing it all back it seems like they limited the ceiling a bit.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
Needs:
Waiters's 2017 season to not have been a fluke and Johnson to keep up his most improved player type season. Also Winslow to take a leap and some wing depth.
Additional Thoughts:
I said it all above by now but while I don't overly hate it I think they may have limited the future ceiling of the team a little. I do still think this year they're fine and probably in the 7-8 seed range out east, I'd guess at 7 right now.
Projected Win/Loss: 41-41
Off-Season Grade: C-
pacers33granger wrote:pacers33granger Review
Key Losses:
We all knew Bosh was a loss long ago, so Miami really didn't have any major losses. Babbitt played a good amount of minutes, but there's no way he's a key loss.
Losses:
Nothing to speak of here either. I know they wanted to bring back Reed, but it didn't work out plus Olynyk should take most of his minutes anyways.
Draft:
I loved this pick for Miami. I hated it as a Pacers fan who wanted Bam at 18. Riley swung for the fences here and Bam looked really promising in SL. Spoelstra's staffs' work with bigs should be super helpful for Bam to develop properly.
Trades:
This was a pricey dump, but good on Riley for doing it quick when he realized that cap space was at a premium this summer. On value I feel Miami lost out, but overall it's a definite win for them.
Free Agency:
Free agency is where I have a bit of an issue with Miami's offseason. Johnson is a definite overpay imo when most players only got 3 years this summer and many also had non-guaranteed money, but JJ got a PO. If last year was an aberration then this deal could look bad real quick. He'll be 34 when that contract ends and relies on athleticism. I'm not a fan of this bet at all.
Olynyk was a much worse overpay imo. He's 26 already so he basically is what he is and what he is is a bench big with many holes. Shooting is at a premium, but even there he's streaky and has confidence issues. Maybe Spoelstra can get his confidence up and playing better, but there's almost no way he's not a liability on one end of the floor every night.
Curiously enough, Waiters is the youngest of the three big signings and has shown the most overall, yet got only slightly more than Olynyk and much less than JJ. So I really liked this contract, especially when reports had him pegged closer to $20 mil before free agency. I just don't understand how it was so low comparatively.
Bringing back Haslem is good and was expected.
Current Depth Chart: (taken from bbinsiders)
PG: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
SG: Dion Waiters, Wayne Ellington, Rodney McGruder, Matt Williams
SF: Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Okaro White
PF: Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson
C: Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo, A.J. Hammons, Udonis Haslem
Needs:
Continued improvement. As mentioned above, if JJ regresses like many other contract year guys, then that's a major problem. If Olynyk doesn't develop some more skills, then that's a problem. If Winslow continues to be injured or still has issues shooting, that's a problem. This roster is locked in and is already expensive, yet doesn't feel like more than a first round exit team. And with Dragic getting up there, the ceiling is limited. I wouldn't bet against Riley, but he's painted himself into a bit of a corner with some of these salaries and I'm not sure some of them are easily moved if need be.
Additional Thoughts:
Is this the team from the first half of last season or the second half? Is Waiters for real as a lead guard? Is there enough shooting on the roster? There seem to be multiple questions that will be answered this year so this is a hard team to peg right now.
Projected Win/Loss: 42-40
Off-Season Grade: C
BBallFreak wrote:BBallFreak's Review
Key Losses:
Willie Reed
Luke Babbitt
HartfordWhalers lists Chris Bosh as a key loss, but he hasn't been on the floor for over a year and a half. He's been lost to the Heat for quite awhile. If anything, his removal from the cap situation afforded the team the opportunity to get better, not worse. Losing Reed and Babbitt, on the other hand, only makes the team better if they're replaced by better players. Since both were key rotation players, they deserve mention as key losses.
Losses:
Josh McRoberts
This is where Pat Riley and Andy Elisburg earn their pay. This trade was a stroke of pure genius. They ditch an unproductive player for a second rounder in the distant future while allowing themselves the opportunity to keep a productive player, Wayne Ellington, in the present. It took a lot of maneuvering to make this offseason work, and that's something a lot of people overlook when talking about what Miami achieved, rather than what they didn't achieve.
Draft:
Like most, I was questioning this pick when it initially occurred, but what a difference a summer league can make. He has looked like a man among boys and showed the potential to be a rotation player in this league. I'm cautiously optimistic here, but I wouldn't be surprised if Spolestra goes with a three man big rotation featuring Whiteside, Johnson, and Olynyk with only spot contributions from the rookie.
Trades:
Again, dumping McRoberts, while getting a look at Hammons seems like a no brainer, and when you consider it allowed the team to keep Ellington, it was an insanely obvious choice.
Free Agency:
James Johnson 4/60m (last year PO)
Dion Waiters 4/47.3m
Kelly Olynyk 4/45.6m (last year PO)
Udonis Haslem 1/2.3m
Matt Williams min nongtd
Derrick Walton Jr. two-way contract.
Here's where things get controversial for Miami.
Firstly, they lost out on Gordan Hayward, which a lot of people hold against them. Why? Only three teams even got to pitch to the man.
Secondly, they resigned Waiters and Johnson, players whose respective bodies of work suggests that maybe they shouldn't have been offered the contracts they were given. Waiters, in particular, drew the ire of critics.
Finally, Kelly Olynyk's contract has drawn criticism becuse, let's face it, big men are not the rage in NBA fashion these days. Of course, Olynyk isn't your typical big, given that he can shoot three's at the rate he does (career 37%). Factoring in that, his age (26), and what he was able to do against Washington in game 7, and I understand the reasoning behind it, especially given that he's replacing the rather pedestrian Luke Babbitt. That, however, does not justify the amount or length of the contract. Given the big man market, this one might come back to bite Miami.
Current Depth Chart:
PG: Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson
SG: Dion Waiters, Rodney McGruder, Wayne Ellington, Matt Williams
SF: Justise Winslow, Josh Richardson, Okaro White
PF: Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson, Udonis Haslem
C: Hassan Whiteside, Bam Adebayo, A.J. Hammons
Needs:
Development, pure and simple. Waiters needs to continue to refine his game to justify that contract. Last year, in the second half of the season he played very much within the team structure, and it showed with a career high in assists. During the run to .500, he was the catalyst and emotional leader of that team.
Winslow, Richardson, and Bam need to show that they belong in this league by developing their skills and proving they belong on the court. All three have shown good things, but one of them, if not all, need to show they belong in the starting lineup.
Finally, in terms of actual needs, they really should find a developmental point guard, at the very least. TJ is an adequate ball handler and a great player, but he's also injury prone. Heat fans will tell you that Waiters, Richardson, and James Johnson are all ball handlers as well, but they're not traditional point guards. They could really use someone just in case of emergency.
Additional Thoughts:
This team has the potential to be better together they are as individuals. We saw it last season. The question for them is, is Pat Riley's faith in them justified, or was what we saw nothing more than lightning in a bottle? Riley's all in, in full belief that they will be a playoff team next year. Chemistry was an essential part of what the Heat did, and coach Spoelstra maximized it with a masterful coaching job, but how will that hold up with new additions to the team?
Coach Riley isn't one to rest on his laurels, so this team is here, for now, but I wouldn't be sure that they're not going to push for something bigger during the season. If they falter, he'll improve the team, one way or the other.
Projected Win/Loss: 43-38 I believe, in the weakened East, the team has a chance to be a solid playoff team. They're definitely good enough for that. The record, of course, depends on health. That's my disclaimer. I don't like projecting for this team though because I don't totally trust them.
Off-Season Grade:B- This might be a generous grade. I know a lot of people think they're capped out and can no longer make moves because they resigned Waiters and Johnson while adding Olynyk, but I don't buy it. Riley can find ways to make moves. He always has before. These contracts, by today's standards, are middling.
As far as this group is concerned, there is value in being a playoff team, and if they get there, those contracts won't look bad at all. In fact, I believe Waiters, in particular, will look like a bargain by this time next year. People talk about Miami being on the treadmill, but at this point, they don't have another option. They swung for the big fish and didn't get him. They owe their pick this year to Phoenix. Might as well bring back the team, get to the playoffs, make your team an attractive product both to the fan base and to players around the league (ie, Kyrie Irving). I say, keep doing what you're doing.
