5 year plan

[Jamaaliver]

I was thinking the current celtics. They got rid of Pierce and Garnett and pretty much sank down to just young guys and returned to respectability and tops in the conference pretty quickly.

The difference is BOS got good picks for Pierce and Garnett with cap relief, while ATL got only a HOU pick (HOU is porjected at 2nd in Western Conference...) from Millsap and Horford.
So it won't work the same.
When you know you have picks coming, you can take more risk (like signing Horford to Max even if he's worth a bit less, signing Hayward to Max even if he's also worth a bit less...) because you can still trade later, while getting young players with the picks.

This is very true. It's also important to remember that BOS stole Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas when their stock was modest. Snagging them on amazing deals relative to their effectiveness/production.

[D21]

I was thinking the current celtics. They got rid of Pierce and Garnett and pretty much sank down to just young guys and returned to respectability and tops in the conference pretty quickly.

The difference is BOS got good picks for Pierce and Garnett with cap relief, while ATL got only a HOU pick (HOU is porjected at 2nd in Western Conference...) from Millsap and Horford.
So it won't work the same.
When you know you have picks coming, you can take more risk (like signing Horford to Max even if he's worth a bit less, signing Hayward to Max even if he's also worth a bit less...) because you can still trade later, while getting young players with the picks.

This is very true. It's also important to remember that BOS stole Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas when their stock was modest. Snagging them on amazing deals relative to their effectiveness/production.

That's right, but they were also intelligent enough to be the one getting them.

[macd-gm]

The difference is BOS got good picks for Pierce and Garnett with cap relief, while ATL got only a HOU pick (HOU is porjected at 2nd in Western Conference...) from Millsap and Horford.
So it won't work the same.
When you know you have picks coming, you can take more risk (like signing Horford to Max even if he's worth a bit less, signing Hayward to Max even if he's also worth a bit less...) because you can still trade later, while getting young players with the picks.

This is very true. It's also important to remember that BOS stole Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas when their stock was modest. Snagging them on amazing deals relative to their effectiveness/production.

That's right, but they were also intelligent enough to be the one getting them.

To me that's the key difference. Recognizing that you need Isaiah Thomas rather than standing back and saying 'he's short, terrible defender, he can't help us'. Too often i feel the Hawks have ignored the need for offensive stars because they are weak in other areas.

[Jamaaliver]

This is very true. It's also important to remember that BOS stole Jae Crowder and Isaiah Thomas when their stock was modest. Snagging them on amazing deals relative to their effectiveness/production.

That's right, but they were also intelligent enough to be the one getting them.

To me that's the key difference. Recognizing that you need Isaiah Thomas rather than standing back and saying 'he's short, terrible defender, he can't help us'. Too often i feel the Hawks have ignored the need for offensive stars because they are weak in other areas.

Bingo.

And Celtics had the foresight to acquire Isaiah even though they already featured Avery Bradley and Marcus Smart (and point forward Evan Turner).

Spoiler:

In order for Ainge to complete a sustainable rebuild of the Celtics, he has to use all of the picks he has accumulated in a perfect mix of trades and selections. Using what is expected to be a late 2016 first-round pick (and a spare roster part) to add Thomas on an affordable long-term deal is a near-perfect start.

2015 Trade Review

[Spud2nique]

I agree that we don't take chances on players and end up getting nothing but the IT trade is a hindsight 20/20 type deal. Having lived in the Bay Area and watched a lot of Kings games...IT was never the player he is in Boston today. He didn't have anywhere near the confidence he has now and he would turn the ball over in key situations in sac town but cleaned that up in Boston as well. Even in Phoenix 3 years ago where they had the 3 headed monster, he was probably as good as Bledsoe and a bit better than Knight. These last two years, IT is a different player in my opinion and not many could have seen it coming.

[jayu70]

I agree that we don't take chances on players and end up getting nothing but the IT trade is a hindsight 20/20 type deal. Having lived in the Bay Area and watched a lot of Kings games...IT was never the player he is in Boston today. He didn't have anywhere near the confidence he has now and he would turn the ball over in key situations in sac town but cleaned that up in Boston as well. Even in Phoenix 3 years ago where they had the 3 headed monster, he was probably as good as Bledsoe and a bit better than Knight. These last two years, IT is a different player in my opinion and not many could have seen it coming.

Hindsight Glasses are wonderful.

[MaceCase]

Hawks did make a similar low risk/high reward gamble as Boston did with IT on a player named Tim Hardaway Jr.


It was extremely panned from the moment it happened, no 20/20 needed.

[macd-gm]

These last two years, IT is a different player in my opinion and not many could have seen it coming.

Well that seems as revisionist as anything. Obviously the Celtics saw something coming. His first full year with the Celtics IT was the starting PG, leading scorer, and second on the team in minutes. Maybe it worked better than they thought but they obviously had pretty high expectations. That's pretty good work no matter how much I hate ainge.

Compare that to the Hawks 'gamble' on Hardaway where the dude didn't see meaningful minutes for the majority of his 2 years here.

[Spud2nique]

These last two years, IT is a different player in my opinion and not many could have seen it coming.

Well that seems as revisionist as anything. Obviously the Celtics saw something coming. His first full year with the Celtics IT was the starting PG, leading scorer, and second on the team in minutes. Maybe it worked better than they thought but they obviously had pretty high expectations. That's pretty good work no matter how much I hate ainge.

Compare that to the Hawks 'gamble' on Hardaway where the dude didn't see meaningful minutes for the majority of his 2 years here.

Revisionist...I had to look that up before I got in ur grill...Comon Mac stop using big words. I agree I hate Ainge as well. IT's improvement in Boston might also have to do with Brad Stevens, as much as I hate him. Lol.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm trying to think of an example of a total tear down like we just saw that returned to being a upper tier team in less than 3 years...

I was thinking the current celtics. They got rid of Pierce and Garnett and pretty much sank down to just young guys and returned to respectability and tops in the conference pretty quickly.

I think you're right. That is probably the best recent example of an expedited rebuild.

Four years of wheeling and dealing have transformed the Celtics

What started with a blockbuster deal that sent two future Hall of Famers to Brooklyn has turned into a master class in roster reshaping.

After the Boston Celtics were bounced from the opening round of the 2013 playoffs, it was painfully obvious it was time for a rebuild.

By late June that year, the Celtics had agreed to deals that would deliver Rivers to the LA Clippers and aging stars and future Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Brooklyn Nets in a jaw-dropping blockbuster.

A mere four years after hitting the reset button, the Celtics are coming off a season in which they won an East-best 53 games and appear on the cusp of returning to legitimate title contention. How did Boston turn things around so quickly?


Ainge and his front-office staff relentlessly overhauled the team's roster, targeting undervalued talent that formed the Celtics' chip-on-their-shoulder core while also feverishly stockpiling future draft picks. They hit a couple of home runs along the way (Boston is still collecting picks from the Pierce/Garnett swap and got All-NBA guard Isaiah Thomas virtually for free thanks to the aftershocks of the Nets blockbuster).

ESPN

[Jamaaliver]

I'm trying to think of an example of a total tear down like we just saw that returned to being a upper tier team in less than 3 years...

I was thinking the current celtics. They got rid of Pierce and Garnett and pretty much sank down to just young guys and returned to respectability and tops in the conference pretty quickly.

Definitely the Celts...and their rebuild isn't complete yet.

Read on Twitter

_
This is massive restructuring and improvement in a brief period of time. Hopefully, Trav is taking note.

[HoopsMalone]

Okay, so Atlanta actually can piece together an interesting roster faster than some people probably think but it will take a little creativity.

First of all, they need to tank hard this year because obviously there are a couple big names at the top. Doncic is an amazing prospect so you want to maximize your chances to get him.

That means no screwing around and trying to win 32 games or anything dumb. For the next few years you are going to try to hit home runs in the draft with your lottery picks. Blue choppers in the top 5... And always erring towards high reward shots like Giannis, embiid, porzingis types rather than Markannen, hield, or justin Jackson types. And with late 1sts, 2nd rd picks and end of roster spots stick with raw developmental big man prospects with elite size and athleticism. You're looking for an overlooked potential rim protector like hassan Whiteside, Rudy gobert, or draymond green. Perhaps a freakishly quick pg or a 3/d guy with some bulk.

You're stuck paying big horrible deals to Bazemore and Plumlee for the next three years. So you may as well focus 100% on the rebuild during years 1-3. There's no sense in trying to speed up the playoff timeframe.

Year 1) You have somewhere around ~$25m in likely expiring deals this year. This is a must. Shop those expiring deals all over the league for the best contract absorption trade. The Knicks might be willing to give you their lotto ball this year to take Noah off their hands. Other candidates like deng, mozgov, Evan Turner, reggie jackson, chandler parsons, etc. I guarantee there is someone looking to get out of the luxury tax and an AWFUL deal signed in the spending spree last off-season. You're already stuck with Plumlee and Bazemore, why not add one more dud And pick up a major asset to kick start the rebuild? Two good first round picks this year.

Also, Trade Schroder ASAP. He's not good enough for a long term rebuild and he is going to hurt your draft pick the next few years. Also, he has four years on his deal and you are targeting a clean cap after Year 3. You won't get much for him, this is really just to improve your own picks and clean up the cap timing. Some ideas are swapping with someone like Chicago for robin lopez (2/$27 left) or perhaps Cleveland for frye/shumpert.

2) Year 2 free agency. Again sign a bunch of one year deals with passable rotation players at slightly inflated values. You are going to use these expiring deals once again to target teams desperate to get rid of overpaid Ryan Anderson (2/$40 remaining), Tyler Johnson (2/$40) , Loul deng types... perhaps aging guys who tail off badly this year (Marvin Williams?), don't rebound from injuries (Solomon hill?), or good players that just must be moved for cap space like avery bradley & Patrick beverley were this year. Your draft pick should be top 5 again.

3) Year 3 off-season. Here is your big year! You've got Bazemore, Plumlee, and whatever rejects you acquired in these past trades all expiring on huge deals. You should be able to use these expiring deals to help facilitate 3 team trades for more picks or prospects. Use your cap space once again to sign one or two year deals and draft well.

4) Year 4 off-season. By now you've made multiple high lottery picks, maybe a few mid or late 1sts, and perhaps unearthed a few 2nd rd or late blooming developmental players. And your cap is pristine.

[jayu70]

Also, Trade Schroder ASAP. He's not good enough for a long term rebuild and he is going to hurt your draft pick the next few years. Also, he has four years on his deal and you are targeting a clean cap after Year 3. You won't get much for him, this is really just to improve your own picks and clean up the cap timing. Some ideas are swapping with someone like Chicago for robin lopez (2/$27 left) or perhaps Cleveland for frye/shumpert.

Yeah, that's not happening. You may not think much of Shroder but he is still worth more than Robin Lopez and Frye/Shumpert. He is 23 years, right in line with the rest of the Hawks young players, they can all grow together. Nothing wrong with Dennis's 4 year deal.

If the Hawks are trading Shroder, it'll be during the draft by attaching one of their 2018 draft picks to him to move up, or trade for a young player.

[macd-gm]

I honestly don't think Resseller has the patience to wait 5 years to return to the playoffs. I think we go all out for a top 2 pick this season and then start trading and signing to try to get to contention. If somehow we end up with a bad pick this year then i'm not sure. Maybe another tank or lots of trades of our picks.

[kg01]

The Hawks aren't tanking to chase these question-marks at the top of the draft(s).

[macd-gm]

The Hawks aren't tanking to chase these question-marks at the top of the draft(s).

You don't think they are doing that this year? I do. What do you think they will do? trade the picks?

[kg01]

The Hawks aren't tanking to chase these question-marks at the top of the draft(s).

You don't think they are doing that this year? I do. What do you think they will do? trade the picks?

No. I think they've reduced the talent level by eschewing bad contracts. I think they'd understand if they don't make the playoffs but I severely doubt they made moves to lose on purpose. That would be tanking (in my mind).

They'll be looking to develop guys but they won't be doing so by allowing dudes to just play any ol' kinda way (lookin' at you, PHI).

And, yes, I think they will look primarily to trade high lotto picks unless there's a real franchise player there. I should say, I don't see any real franchise players coming out any time soon. There are a lot of guys who can put up meaningless nimbers but not any guys who will literally change the course of anyone's franchise (i.e. no one tank-worthy).

[Jamaaliver]

I honestly don't think Resseller has the patience to wait 5 years to return to the playoffs.

Agreed. Trav has mentioned a 2-3 year hiatus from the playoffs as acceptable, but not much longer than that. I imagine this is the same timeline he told Ressler/Hill in interviews.

24 months from now, I expect us to start ramping up, pursuing top free agents again and aiming for a playoff spot.

This based on what our GM has stated is the goal.

(NOTE: Ressler and Schlenk both have, admittedly, made numerous misleading statements this summer. So take these with a grain of salt.)

We want to continue the success we’ve had, but realize we might have to take a step back. We just don’t want to dip down 2-3 years in a row. We realize that young players in this league take their lumps but we don’t want to send the message that we’re (fine) with losing.

NBA.com

“The Philly model is not our plan,” Hawks general manager Travis Schlenk said Wednesday. “We want to be competitive.”

Be advised that Schlenk’s definition of “competitive” mightn’t coincide with yours. He referred to his time at Golden State. From 2008 through 2011, the Warriors won 29, 26, 36 and 23 games, which wasn’t quite Philly-style tanking.

That’s apparently Schlenk’s model for the Hawks – win 30 or so games, maybe have a sniff at the playoffs, keep your draft picks and hit big when you exercise them. “If we miss out (on postseason play) one year,” he said, “it’s not the end of the world.”

myAJC

[Jamaaliver]

The Hawks aren't tanking to chase these question-marks at the top of the draft(s).

They'll be looking to develop guys but they won't be doing so by allowing dudes to just play any ol' kinda way (lookin' at you, PHI).

I think they will look primarily to trade high lotto picks unless there's a real franchise player there. I should say, I don't see any real franchise players coming out any time soon. There are a lot of guys who can put up meaningless nimbers but not any guys who will literally change the course of anyone's franchise (i.e. no one tank-worthy).

On this one I might disagree a bit. Schlenk seems to pride himself on finding talents later in the draft. Even the LAC trade, which cost us a pretty penny, netted us only a (likely) later first round pick. Further reflecting how much Schlenk values picks...even seemingly useless ones.

Schlenk reiterated his philosophy that the Hawks will build through the draft.

“What we did in Golden State is what we are trying to do here,” Schlenk said. “We never really were terrible. We were winning 30-some games, staying competitive, so when you get the last month of the season you are in the playoff hunt. But when you get your draft picks, you’ve got to be right."

AJC

[macd-gm]

Being in the playoff hunt late is probably not a good idea. Even if you're going to trade picks you want them to be as high as possible. out of the 8 EC playoff teams last year Atl, Chicago, and Indy are out this year. Replaced by (i guess) miami, charlotte, maybe detroit? you don't want to fall in the playoffs because everyone else is trying to avoid it.