RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#41 » by Lou Fan » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:01 pm

Winsome Gerbil wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
For me westbrook hasn't proven himself as a number 1 at all. He won't be in my next 20, as I just don't see any scenario that he's at this level.


Now that seems to be a fairly insupportable position. Especially when we are talking about Walt Frazier here who never truly WAS a #1. But in any case, Westbrook just won an MVP in what was basically considered impossible fashion in the modern era, he's a 6x All NBA guy and 2x scoring champ by the age of 28. He's in the HOF if he retires tomorrow, and barring sudden catastrophic injury he's going to stack up more great seasons than all but maybe the top half dozen or so guards. Maybe even them, although I think he will be impacted heavily by declining athleticism after 30.

Guards (500+ games) Career PER
1) Jordan 27.9 (taken #1)
2) Paul 25.7 (taken #23)
3) Wade 24.3 (taken #22)
4) Magic 24.1 (taken #7)
5) Westbrook 23.8 (won't be taken to #59 at least?)
6) Curry 23.4 (taken #29)
7) Robertson 23.2 (taken #13)
8) Bryant 22.9 (taken #11)
9) Harden 22.9
10) West 22.9 (taken #15)

that doesn't work

Why do people use PER it's a horrible stat. Especially when comparing across eras.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#42 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:06 pm

Winsome Gerbil wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
For me westbrook hasn't proven himself as a number 1 at all. He won't be in my next 20, as I just don't see any scenario that he's at this level.


Now that seems to be a fairly insupportable position. Especially when we are talking about Walt Frazier here who never truly WAS a #1. But in any case, Westbrook just won an MVP in what was basically considered impossible fashion in the modern era, he's a 6x All NBA guy and 2x scoring champ by the age of 28. He's in the HOF if he retires tomorrow, and barring sudden catastrophic injury he's going to stack up more great seasons than all but maybe the top half dozen or so guards. Maybe even them, although I think he will be impacted heavily by declining athleticism after 30.

Guards (500+ games) Career PER
1) Jordan 27.9 (taken #1)
2) Paul 25.7 (taken #23)
3) Wade 24.3 (taken #22)
4) Magic 24.1 (taken #7)
5) Westbrook 23.8 (won't be taken to #59 at least?)
6) Curry 23.4 (taken #29)
7) Robertson 23.2 (taken #13)
8) Bryant 22.9 (taken #11)
9) Harden 22.9
10) West 22.9 (taken #15)

that doesn't work


PER is adjusted to the league each year. It can't be looked at is the same number year to year. You can look at rankings, but not the score.

I like PER a lot as a stat btw. But no I don't be looking at him for some time now. I think he's at best a negative on intangibles but he's close imo to a cancer on winning team. I also subtract 10 spots (I won't vote till 70's if he's around) because he's a man and wears pants that make me want to vomit. Only 90% joking! lol.

By a lot of measures he did have a goat level season and I have ot admit that. The problem I have is VORP which LOVED him is supposed to agree with the plus minus data. Now I haven't seen 2017 RAMP anywhere, why that stats is impossible to find is beyond me. But we have ESPN's toddler xRAMP which ranked him 9th. The problem here is I see that 9th and I saw him play and I as an observer only want to move him up a few spots. He just wasn't a top 5 player in my eyes last year. It helps me here and hurts me that I saw a lot of games last season of most of the top 10 and he just didn't stand out at all. I don't have that same reality with players prior to 96 and there are a few years where some guys on bad teams (KG and Tmac for example) where impossible to watch. But still I saw westbrook and he kinda sucks nexted to most MVPs imo.

I think the issue is I see him as ONLY a floor raiser. I don't see him raising the ceiling at all. And that's an issue at this point in the rankings. As we move forward and look at guys who were similar he'll stand out well for me. I have him for example over Carter who I liked as a player 10000x more, but westbrook to me clearly is over him.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#43 » by Winsome Gerbil » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:07 pm

twolves97 wrote:
Winsome Gerbil wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
For me westbrook hasn't proven himself as a number 1 at all. He won't be in my next 20, as I just don't see any scenario that he's at this level.


Now that seems to be a fairly insupportable position. Especially when we are talking about Walt Frazier here who never truly WAS a #1. But in any case, Westbrook just won an MVP in what was basically considered impossible fashion in the modern era, he's a 6x All NBA guy and 2x scoring champ by the age of 28. He's in the HOF if he retires tomorrow, and barring sudden catastrophic injury he's going to stack up more great seasons than all but maybe the top half dozen or so guards. Maybe even them, although I think he will be impacted heavily by declining athleticism after 30.

Guards (500+ games) Career PER
1) Jordan 27.9 (taken #1)
2) Paul 25.7 (taken #23)
3) Wade 24.3 (taken #22)
4) Magic 24.1 (taken #7)
5) Westbrook 23.8 (won't be taken to #59 at least?)
6) Curry 23.4 (taken #29)
7) Robertson 23.2 (taken #13)
8) Bryant 22.9 (taken #11)
9) Harden 22.9
10) West 22.9 (taken #15)

that doesn't work

Why do people use PER it's a horrible stat. Especially when comparing across eras.


PER is an extremely accurate stat when it comes to identifying "greatness". The correlation is extreme. There's only 1 player in the Top 50 in career PER who is a ? to make the HOF (Amare). And here of course, PER has once again accurately described the top guards taken in the draft. #11 in career PER? John Stockton (21.8) taken #21. Drexler is #13 and Nash is #17. Westbrook, Harden, Gervin and Iverson round out the Top 14 as the only guards not taken so far, and they are all in discussion now.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#44 » by Lou Fan » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:19 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
Winsome Gerbil wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
For me westbrook hasn't proven himself as a number 1 at all. He won't be in my next 20, as I just don't see any scenario that he's at this level.


Now that seems to be a fairly insupportable position. Especially when we are talking about Walt Frazier here who never truly WAS a #1. But in any case, Westbrook just won an MVP in what was basically considered impossible fashion in the modern era, he's a 6x All NBA guy and 2x scoring champ by the age of 28. He's in the HOF if he retires tomorrow, and barring sudden catastrophic injury he's going to stack up more great seasons than all but maybe the top half dozen or so guards. Maybe even them, although I think he will be impacted heavily by declining athleticism after 30.

Guards (500+ games) Career PER
1) Jordan 27.9 (taken #1)
2) Paul 25.7 (taken #23)
3) Wade 24.3 (taken #22)
4) Magic 24.1 (taken #7)
5) Westbrook 23.8 (won't be taken to #59 at least?)
6) Curry 23.4 (taken #29)
7) Robertson 23.2 (taken #13)
8) Bryant 22.9 (taken #11)
9) Harden 22.9
10) West 22.9 (taken #15)

that doesn't work


I think the issue is I see him as ONLY a floor raiser. I don't see him raising the ceiling at all. And that's an issue at this point in the rankings. As we move forward and look at guys who were similar he'll stand out well for me. I have him for example over Carter who I liked as a player 10000x more, but westbrook to me clearly is over him.

While this opinion is a bit strong you basically echoed my sentiment about Westbrook. I think, obviously, if you put Russ on a great team that team gets better ie he's at least a bit of a ceiling raiser the degree to which is unknown. If you take Westbrook of the 16 Thunder are they a contender? Doubt it. He is a ceiling raiser but imo not a great one. I just don't think his style of play is conducive to winning no team is doing jack **** with a guy having a 41% usage right. If MJ couldn't do it Westbrook DEFINITELY can't. I also don't think he was top 5 this year and that Harden should've won MVP. Triple doubles are the most wildly overrated stat in the history of sports in general. My Top 6 this year is LBJ, Steph, Kawhi, KD, Harden, Westbrook. Let's be real here was Westbrook's cast really that much worse than Harden's? No. Adams and Kanter are about the same as Anderson and Capela. Roberson is Beverly basically but Roberson is a slightly better defender and Beverly a better shooter. Ariza vs oladipo is also pretty close. Westbrook had the worse cast but it was slightly worse and the Rockets were a way better team. Remember people were predicting the Rockets to be the 8 seed at the beginning of the year. So basically what you said but less extreme.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#45 » by eminence » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:27 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
Winsome Gerbil wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
For me westbrook hasn't proven himself as a number 1 at all. He won't be in my next 20, as I just don't see any scenario that he's at this level.


Now that seems to be a fairly insupportable position. Especially when we are talking about Walt Frazier here who never truly WAS a #1. But in any case, Westbrook just won an MVP in what was basically considered impossible fashion in the modern era, he's a 6x All NBA guy and 2x scoring champ by the age of 28. He's in the HOF if he retires tomorrow, and barring sudden catastrophic injury he's going to stack up more great seasons than all but maybe the top half dozen or so guards. Maybe even them, although I think he will be impacted heavily by declining athleticism after 30.

Guards (500+ games) Career PER
1) Jordan 27.9 (taken #1)
2) Paul 25.7 (taken #23)
3) Wade 24.3 (taken #22)
4) Magic 24.1 (taken #7)
5) Westbrook 23.8 (won't be taken to #59 at least?)
6) Curry 23.4 (taken #29)
7) Robertson 23.2 (taken #13)
8) Bryant 22.9 (taken #11)
9) Harden 22.9
10) West 22.9 (taken #15)

that doesn't work


PER is adjusted to the league each year. It can't be looked at is the same number year to year. You can look at rankings, but not the score.

I like PER a lot as a stat btw. But no I don't be looking at him for some time now. I think he's at best a negative on intangibles but he's close imo to a cancer on winning team. I also subtract 10 spots (I won't vote till 70's if he's around) because he's a man and wears pants that make me want to vomit. Only 90% joking! lol.

By a lot of measures he did have a goat level season and I have ot admit that. The problem I have is VORP which LOVED him is supposed to agree with the plus minus data. Now I haven't seen 2017 RAMP anywhere, why that stats is impossible to find is beyond me. But we have ESPN's toddler xRAMP which ranked him 9th. The problem here is I see that 9th and I saw him play and I as an observer only want to move him up a few spots. He just wasn't a top 5 player in my eyes last year. It helps me here and hurts me that I saw a lot of games last season of most of the top 10 and he just didn't stand out at all. I don't have that same reality with players prior to 96 and there are a few years where some guys on bad teams (KG and Tmac for example) where impossible to watch. But still I saw westbrook and he kinda sucks nexted to most MVPs imo.

I think the issue is I see him as ONLY a floor raiser. I don't see him raising the ceiling at all. And that's an issue at this point in the rankings. As we move forward and look at guys who were similar he'll stand out well for me. I have him for example over Carter who I liked as a player 10000x more, but westbrook to me clearly is over him.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/3/d/1CiOqGlz6zjjmjUlJBNOXflG6wYAS1RLjZjtZSQHraF4/edit#gid=0

2017 NPI RAPM (playoffs included), Westbrook #19, a couple lower minutes guys ahead though (McGee/Patterson/Hill due to injury).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#46 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:35 pm

eminence wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Winsome Gerbil wrote:
Now that seems to be a fairly insupportable position. Especially when we are talking about Walt Frazier here who never truly WAS a #1. But in any case, Westbrook just won an MVP in what was basically considered impossible fashion in the modern era, he's a 6x All NBA guy and 2x scoring champ by the age of 28. He's in the HOF if he retires tomorrow, and barring sudden catastrophic injury he's going to stack up more great seasons than all but maybe the top half dozen or so guards. Maybe even them, although I think he will be impacted heavily by declining athleticism after 30.

Guards (500+ games) Career PER
1) Jordan 27.9 (taken #1)
2) Paul 25.7 (taken #23)
3) Wade 24.3 (taken #22)
4) Magic 24.1 (taken #7)
5) Westbrook 23.8 (won't be taken to #59 at least?)
6) Curry 23.4 (taken #29)
7) Robertson 23.2 (taken #13)
8) Bryant 22.9 (taken #11)
9) Harden 22.9
10) West 22.9 (taken #15)

that doesn't work


PER is adjusted to the league each year. It can't be looked at is the same number year to year. You can look at rankings, but not the score.

I like PER a lot as a stat btw. But no I don't be looking at him for some time now. I think he's at best a negative on intangibles but he's close imo to a cancer on winning team. I also subtract 10 spots (I won't vote till 70's if he's around) because he's a man and wears pants that make me want to vomit. Only 90% joking! lol.

By a lot of measures he did have a goat level season and I have ot admit that. The problem I have is VORP which LOVED him is supposed to agree with the plus minus data. Now I haven't seen 2017 RAMP anywhere, why that stats is impossible to find is beyond me. But we have ESPN's toddler xRAMP which ranked him 9th. The problem here is I see that 9th and I saw him play and I as an observer only want to move him up a few spots. He just wasn't a top 5 player in my eyes last year. It helps me here and hurts me that I saw a lot of games last season of most of the top 10 and he just didn't stand out at all. I don't have that same reality with players prior to 96 and there are a few years where some guys on bad teams (KG and Tmac for example) where impossible to watch. But still I saw westbrook and he kinda sucks nexted to most MVPs imo.

I think the issue is I see him as ONLY a floor raiser. I don't see him raising the ceiling at all. And that's an issue at this point in the rankings. As we move forward and look at guys who were similar he'll stand out well for me. I have him for example over Carter who I liked as a player 10000x more, but westbrook to me clearly is over him.



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/3/d/1CiOqGlz6zjjmjUlJBNOXflG6wYAS1RLjZjtZSQHraF4/edit#gid=0

2017 NPI RAPM (playoffs included), Westbrook #19, a couple lower minutes guys ahead though (McGee/Patterson/Hill due to injury).


what value do we place on NPI?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#47 » by eminence » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:48 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:what value do we place on NPI?


Up to you I suppose, I generally prefer it over PI I guess, though larger sample size is my favorite (like the 02-11 10 year RAPM).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#48 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 3:52 pm

eminence wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:what value do we place on NPI?


Up to you I suppose, I generally prefer it over PI I guess, though larger sample size is my favorite (like the 02-11 10 year RAPM).


I thought the general "standard" was the 3 year prior informed. All this bring me back to why I both respect the stat and hate it. It has a lot of value but it also misses so so so damn much imo.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#49 » by eminence » Mon Sep 4, 2017 4:11 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
eminence wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:what value do we place on NPI?


Up to you I suppose, I generally prefer it over PI I guess, though larger sample size is my favorite (like the 02-11 10 year RAPM).


I thought the general "standard" was the 3 year prior informed. All this bring me back to why I both respect the stat and hate it. It has a lot of value but it also misses so so so damn much imo.


I think that was(is?) what JE/Ilardi generally used.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#50 » by THKNKG » Mon Sep 4, 2017 6:56 pm

Guys, I’m sorry that I’ve been MIA. I’ve started a new job, so lots of adjustments with that, and I’ve been busy. Anyways, today I have some time to post, so I thought I’d roll out some of my candidates for the next roughly 30 spots or so (it gets much closer at this level), and maybe do some comparisons. Here are the players (by position) that will probably get mention from me soon - sorted by most soon to furthest away. Note - parenthesis means they’re on the far outskirts of my consideration, but I could be persuaded to include them higher.

PG:
Walt Frazier
Isiah Thomas
Chauncey Billups
(Russell Westbrook)

SG:
Reggie Miller
George Gervin
Manu Ginobili
Sidney Moncrief
(James Harden)
(Tracy McGrady)
(Ray Allen)
(Vince Carter)

SF:
Paul Pierce
(Grant Hill)

PF:
Kevin McHale
Dennis Rodman
(Dolph Schayes)
(Pau Gasol)
(Elvin Hayes)
(Bob McAdoo)

C:
Dikembe Mutombo
Nate Thurmond
Dwight Howard
Alonzo Mourning
(Dave Cowens)
(Ben Wallace)
(Willis Reed)
(Wes Unseld)
(Robert Parish)

I have a pretty clear-ish set of guys to bring me to number 50 (no certain order yet though):

Walt Frazier
Isiah Thomas
Chauncey Billups
Reggie Miller
George Gervin
Manu Ginobili
Paul Pierce
Kevin McHale
Dennis Rodman
Dikembe Mutombo
Nate Thurmond
Dwight Howard
Alonzo Mourning

First, I’ll look at my point guard candidates.

Frazier vs. Isiah vs. Billups
-Billups has the longevity edge (1043 GP), while Walt takes a knock here (825 GP). Isiah is situated in the middle (979).
-ITO prime/near prime seasons, Billups has roughly 9 seasons with a few other decent ones. Isiah has a 8-9 year prime, while Walt has about a 7 year prime, with a few seasons outside of those that are high quality.
-Walt IMO definitely has the clear cut case for best peak, as he was a dominant two-way PG at his apex. I’d place IT/Billups peaks at similar levels, but I’d give Isiah a slight advantage over the course of his prime.
-Billups was by far the most efficient, and IT the least efficient.
-WOWYR has Billups with the best score (5.7), with Frazier/IT dead even (4.6)

Analysis: I pretty strongly favor Frazier here, even though I emphasise longevity a lot. I don’t think IT/Billups could match the level of impact Frazier could provide. As for Billups/IT, I side with Billups because I prefer his better defense and his efficiency (and he was certainly no slouch in big moments - something that IT is known for). To be clear though, I have those two very, very close.

Verdict - Walt Frazier > Chauncey Billups > Isiah Thomas




Next, the SG candidates.

Miller vs. Gervin vs. Ginobili
-I hold Miller clearly over these 2 and I’ll explain why in analysis.
-Ginobili vs. Gervin is really close for me. Even though Gervin has a seeming longevity edge, Ginobili has played SO many more playoff games, that he actually surpasses him.

Analysis: Reggie Miller was the archetype of an elite off ball shooter/scorer before Steph came into the league. Though Gervin was clearly a better scorer overall, Reggie’s playstyle is more conducive to an effective offense. Reggie was able to contort defenses without even needing the ball due to his offensive gravity. However, what’s interesting is that even though Gervin is the ultimate example of a pure scorer, Reggie nearly matched his output in the playoffs. Per 100, Gervin scored 33.5ppg on .560 TS w/ 28.0 USG% and 2.9 TO/G. Reggie scored 30.5ppg on .601 TS w/ 24.3 USG% and 1.7 TO/G. So, from a GM’s perspective (which is how I view things like this), I’d rather have the guy who a) ramps up his game a lot in the playoffs b) is significantly more efficient c) contorts the defense more and d) plays with a more portable playstyle. I also give Gervin a slight edge over Manu. Even though I feel Manu had more impact, I can’t deny the fact that Gervin consistently had to anchor a much tougher role than Manu.

Verdict - Reggie Miller > George Gervin > Manu Ginobili




Next the SF candidates.

Verdict - Paul Pierce

Well, that was easy.




PF candidates:

McHale vs. Rodman
-Pretty clearly in McHale’s favor

Analysis: It’s pretty clearly McHale > Rodman, but I’m sure the more controversial thing is Rodman being so high. The basic reasoning is that he is:
The best rebounder ever
The best ever at one of the most important aspects of basketball to such a degree that he is the greatest outlier in basketball history
He scores mega well in both WOWY/R and RAPM
He was a nutcase, but when he was playing, he was one of the most impactful players in the league, period. His playstyle is portable, though his personality is as weird as the fact that Kim Jong Un is his homeboy.
The fact that his personality is so bad is a clear minus, but not clear enough to drop him out of the top 50 for me. He was just that insanely impactful

Verdict - Kevin McHale > Dennis Rodman




C candidates:

Thurmond vs. Mutombo vs. Dwight vs. Alonzo
-Dwight gets knocked down a tier because of how terrible he is as a teammate, as he’s ruined at least 3 really solid teams just by being who he is. Alonzo is knocked down a tier because of his really poor longevity.
-Thurmond and Mutombo both score incredibly well in WOWY, while Mutombo is phenomenal in DRAPM.

Analysis: I view Thurmond and Mutombo both really highly. I side with Thurmond due in part to the fact that he’s likely the best man defender in history, and isn’t as poor offensively as Mutombo. They’re really close, though.

Verdict - Nate Thurmond > Dikembe Mutombo > Alonzo Mourning > Dwight Howard




Now, the rough list of where they all stand relative to each other (and my top candidates):

Reggie Miller
Nate Thurmond
Walt Frazier
Dikembe Mutombo
Kevin McHale
Alonzo Mourning
Dwight Howard
Dennis Rodman
Chauncey Billups
George Gervin
Isiah Thomas
Manu Ginobili
Paul Pierce




My top 4 candidates:
Reggie Miller
Nate Thurmond
Walt Frazier
Dikembe Mutombo




Reggie is my winner because of all the reasons previously stated. He gives you essentially 16 really really good years. Nate is my second choice.

Vote: Reggie Miller
2nd: Nate Thurmond

HM: Walt Frazier
All-Time Fantasy Draft Team (90 FGA)

PG: Maurice Cheeks / Giannis
SG: Reggie Miller / Jordan
SF: Michael Jordan / Bruce Bowen
PF: Giannis / Marvin Williams
C: Artis Gilmore / Chris Anderson
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#51 » by penbeast0 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 7:28 pm

Nice list, welcome back. I would consider Deke better than Nate offensively just because he stayed within the bounds of what he was good at while Thurmond took a lot of shots at a pretty poor clip.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#52 » by THKNKG » Mon Sep 4, 2017 8:30 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Nice list, welcome back. I would consider Deke better than Nate offensively just because he stayed within the bounds of what he was good at while Thurmond took a lot of shots at a pretty poor clip.


That's actually the exact reason I have them so close. Nate took a lot of inefficient shots, but Deke just wasn't a good offensive player, yet knew his limits. It's tough to decide who was the better defender for me.
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SG: Reggie Miller / Jordan
SF: Michael Jordan / Bruce Bowen
PF: Giannis / Marvin Williams
C: Artis Gilmore / Chris Anderson
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#53 » by trex_8063 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 9:29 pm

Thru post #52 (14 votes, so 8 required for true majority):

Walt Frazier - 5 (Clyde Frazier, dhsilv2, Dr Positivity, pandrade83, penbeast0)
Isiah Thomas - 2 (scabbarista, JordansBulls)
Bob Cousy - 2 (euroleague, Pablo Novi)
Reggie Miller - 2 (micahclay, Doctor MJ)
Paul Pierce - 1 (trex_8063)
Allen Iverson - 1 (Winsome Gerbil)
Tracy McGrady -1 (twolves97)


Pierce, AI, and TMac are first eliminated. One vote transfers to Frazier, one to Cousy, one becomes a ghost vote [Gervin].

Frazier - 6
Cousy - 3
Miller - 2
Isiah - 2


So Reggie and Isiah are next to go. One more vote transfers to Frazier, the other three become ghost votes [Hayes, Thurmond, Wilkins].

Frazier - 7
Cousy - 3


So didn't quite hit the true majority mark, but this otherwise goes fairly comfortably to Frazier. Will have the next thread up in a moment.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#54 » by trex_8063 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 9:38 pm

eminence wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:what value do we place on NPI?


Up to you I suppose, I generally prefer it over PI I guess, though larger sample size is my favorite (like the 02-11 10 year RAPM).


I tend to think NPI is inferior unless [possibly] if evaluating a player either at the start of his career or in the twilight of his career.

Suppose, for example, you were looking at '15 Dwyane Wade or '15 Paul Pierce. In that instance, I think PI would be misleading, as it will likely be pulled way up by prior seasons in which they were clearly much better players. For situations like that, NPI may give a more "honest" impression (though you still then have to deal with the potential for spurious or noisy results).

And likewise if looking at a player who has JUST entered his prime (and perhaps has improved sharply over the previous season or two), PI may bring his mark down a bit (and NPI could potentially be more accurate).

Otherwise, I tend to have more faith in PI.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#55 » by dhsilv2 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 9:43 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
eminence wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:what value do we place on NPI?


Up to you I suppose, I generally prefer it over PI I guess, though larger sample size is my favorite (like the 02-11 10 year RAPM).


I tend to think NPI is inferior unless [possibly] if evaluating a player either at the start of his career or in the twilight of his career.

Suppose, for example, you were looking at '15 Dwyane Wade or '15 Paul Pierce. In that instance, I think PI would be misleading, as it will likely be pulled way up by prior seasons in which they were clearly much better players. For situations like that, NPI may give a more "honest" impression (though you still then have to deal with the potential for spurious or noisy results).

And likewise if looking at a player who has JUST entered his prime (and perhaps has improved sharply over the previous season or two), PI may bring his mark down a bit (and NPI could potentially be more accurate).

Otherwise, I tend to have more faith in PI.


The problem is always that if PI is better for the majority you can't switch metrics to NPI just for one player, especially if the NPI is less accurate. The ultimate result is that all versions of RAPM are deeply flawed but at the same time incredibility helpful tools.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #38 

Post#56 » by O_6 » Mon Sep 4, 2017 10:15 pm

Winsome Gerbil wrote:As I've mentioned with Walt. Impressively well rounded game, but

1) not his team's clear #1

2) short career

And in particular a huge question has to be raised. Apart from nostalgia, why would Walt Frazier end up ranked above Russell Westbrook?:

WFrazier career (12yrs): 37.5min 18.9pts (.542TS%) 5.9reb 6.1ast 19.1PER
Westbrook career (8yrs): 34.1min 22.7pts (.533TS%) 6.2reb 7.9ast 23.8PER

WFrazier career (12yrs): 15581pts 4830reb 5040ast 7x All Star, 6x All NBA (4/2), 7x All Defense
Westbrook career (8yrs): 15156pts 4149reb 5293ast 6x All Star, 6x All-NBA (2/4/0), 2x Scoring Champ, 1x MVP

Westbrook has already caught up to Walt Frazier's entire career of accolades and statistics, he's obviously peaked much higher, and he's still sitting here in mid career with only about 2 seasons less worth of games (668 to 825). How much more proof would we need? do we pedantically need Westbrook to actually play in his 826th game before we suddenly get a lightbulb over our heads and go, ohhhh, nowwwwww he's better?


In any case, as usual I believe 2 guys had better overall careers than either, although Westbrook should be passing them soon too:
#38 Allen Iverson
#39 Bob Cousy


Thoughts on the two parts of this post I highlighted in red...

Frazier might not have been HANDS DOWN the #1 on the Championship team in 1970, that was a 1A vs. 1B situation with Reed. I personally believe that Frazier was already the better player by this point, but it's a toss-up. If you combine Playoffs + Regular Season in 1970, Frazier had 17.8 Win Shares vs. Reed's 17.2 Win Shares.

I'd go Frazier over Reed in 1970, but it's a tough call. But it gets easier in the following years. Using the same Playoffs + Regular Season method for Win Shares...

1971: Frazier (18.1 WS) -- Reed (11.3 WS) ----- 52 Wins (lost in ECF)
1972: Frazier (17.8 WS) -- Reed (0.6 WS) ------- 48 Wins (lost in Finals)
1973: Frazier (16.0 WS) -- Reed (6.8 WS) ------- 57 Wins (CHAMPIONSHIP)

By 1971, Frazier was already the best player on the team. And yet Willis Reed finished 4th in the MVP voting while FRAZIER DIDN'T RECEIVE A SINGLE VOTE. The "Frazier was too black" aspect has been mentioned before, but I don't think people realize to what extent it impacted the Frazier's reputation. This was a black man in New York City in the early 70s living in a luxurious apartment and living an extravagant lifestyle. He literally dressed like a Pimp, and still does to this day. But ok, let's say you want to give Reed the title of #1 on the Knicks in 1971.

In 1972, Reed plays 11 games... Frazier puts the team on his back and carries them to the Finals. That was a great team, but Frazier WAS THE CLEAR #1. He leads them to an upset of a 56 win Celtics team (led by Havlicek, Cowens, Jojo White), leading the Knicks in scoring in the series with 24 PPG (and almost definitely leading in APG as well). The Knicks lose to a MONSTER 69-win Lakers team in the Finals, but Walt goes down swinging. He drops 23/8/8 on a .585 FG%! along with all-world defense, helping keep the great Jerry West to 20 PPG and a .325 FG% in the series. THERE IS NO QUESTION WHO THE MAN ON THE 1972 KNICKS WAS.

In 1973, Reed comes back but is simply not the same player. He averages 11/7 in the regular season and 13/8 in the playoffs. He isn't on any All-League teams and he isn't even invited to the All-Star game. Frazier drops 21/7/6 in the regular season and 22/7/6 in the playoffs, making the All-NBA 2nd team and All-Defensive team while finishing 7th in the MVP vote. So by this point, it is absolutely Walt Frazier's team.

Reed stepped up in the Finals and was handed the Finals MVP after the Knicks beat the Lakers in 5. Reed averaged 16/9/2 on .493 FG% while Frazier averaged 17/6/5 on a .479 FG%. But Reed only averaged 30 MPG in the series whereas Frazier averaged 46 MPG. Even though Frazier didn't have a monster box-score series, he was clearly the best player on the floor for the Knicks. Not to mention that in the previous series, Frazier once again DEMOLISHES a 68-win Celtics team to an upset in 7 games (including winning G7 in Boston which was shocking at the time). Frazier dropped 26/7/6 in that series on a .519 FG% (.579 TS%) along with the usual All-NBA level D. Reed dropped 10/6 on a .434 FG% (.459 TS%) in this series.

When the Knicks won in 1970, it's arguable who "the man" on the team was. But in the following years, it's OBVIOUS who "the man" on the team is. In 1973 when the Knicks win their 2nd title, Reed wins Finals MVP... but in 1973 it isn't even a contest as to who as the #1 player on the team. Frazier was hands-down the best player on the 1973 Championship team. And his 1972 run is probably the most impressive of all, where he is the hands down best player on a team that upsets it's way to the Finals without Willis Reed.

Walt Frazier was a terror of a player on both sides of the ball in his prime. You say that "Westbrook has obviously peaked higher", but I don't see it. The monster 2017 triple double MVP campaign was special, but I still don't think it's a lock that Westbrook is a Top 5 player in the league. I'd have him at 5 at best behind LeBron/Curry/Durant/Kawhi. Walt Frazier on the other hand was a Top 5 player pretty much every year from 1970-73. I'd take '72/'73 Frazier over 2017 Westbrook, he's simply a more complete player. A more efficient scorer and better defender, who made 2 straight Finals and wins 1 while being the clearcut best player on his team. He had a couple of epic series in that 2 year stretch, in the 4 series he played against Havlicek and West these 2 years... he was the best player on the floor every time and usually by a large margin. What he did to the Celtics in these 2 years was scary.

Walt Frazier was a legendary player. He lacks insane box-score stats, MVP love from the voters, and longevity. But the advanced metrics, eye-test, and team results from his prime paints a picture of a dominant 2-way guard. IMO, he should've been voted in by now.

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