Al Horford Starting at Center Instead of Aron Baynes

[Jaqua92]

How are we gonna miss Zizic? The guy hasn't played an NBA game.

[SichtingLives]

This thread is cray cray. Stevens era ball is not new. 3 point shooting is heavily emphasized for every single player on the roster and takes precedent over quite a few fan favorite qualities, such as rebounding. Which btw, Yabs and Semi are being groomed as next gen space clearers. Perk and Baby were space clearers, not great rebounders. They function to clear the oppositions primary rebounding threat in order for teammates to sweep the glass. They are essential to the defensive team rebounding concept with 3-4 other athletes on the floor (ideally) in the modern game. It's like people straight missed AB's rebounding last year and don't even question why that happened. Must've turned into twice the rebounder, nothing to do with 4-storming boards crashing at all. Baynes is a widebody but his lack of spacing makes his presence irrlevant on the starting unit while a plus on the bench.

Ideally Tatum and Brown are starters of the future but they are extra green and will take time to develop. An extra floor spacer in Morris is probably three times as functional per our offense as a career back-up C in baynes, who btw is a 3 point shooter in the same capacity that Bass and Zeller were. Neither are long term answers, Brown and Tatum are. But there is very little logic to starting Baynes when you line up the rotation and the way Stevens system works. We won't be starting games with a sub-optimal offense, I can guarantee that because Stevens has never done it.

[BfB]

Nah, we will use Baynes just like Amir and he will start at C while Horford at PF. When opposing centers are fresh at the start of the game you need someone else fight with them and save Horford for death lineups. We won 54 games last season while starting Horford at PF so i don't see any reason to suddenly start small. Something could be switched during playoffs like Brad did against Bulls when starting big didn't work out for us well and he entered Green as our starting PF while switched Horford to C. Warriors never start with Dray at C either. They start with Pachulia and will use Dray as C when needed.

I don't understand where people get this idea that we will start Morris.

Amir was able to shoot the three with enough success to at least punish teams who completely ignored him. I think it's possible that Baynes gets the early nod to "save" Horford from "centers", but I wouldn't bet the farm on it just because it happened last year.

The best potential title contending lineup BOS currently has on its roster is Horford/Brown/Tatum/Hayward/Irving - I think it's more likely Brad works toward that than anything else.

I do think Tatum will have to show a lot to get the starting nod, but if he isn't a total knob out the gates, Morris/Smart make a ton of sense as the focal points of the 2nd unit.

I said this in a previous thread, with only 6 "veteran" players, I think Brad will try to bring a couple of them off the bench to try and limit the need to run Horford/Hayward/Irving's minutes up as the "only guys" that can keep the offense going.

Baynes/Morris/Smart make for a nice, solid veteran trio to bring off the bench if Brown/Tatum aren't worthless defensively in TC. Brown/Tatum are going to be more effective offensively playing as 4th/5th options in the starting lineup than the are likely to be as focal points off the bench.

Conversely, Morris/Smart can do a lot more offensively as focal points off the bench than they will as 4th/5th options as starters.

In either scenario, I don't see Brad sacrificing skill for size, if he can get away with it. There is SO much offensive talent, I think he'll bet on that first and fall back on maximizing defense/rebounding lineups at the expense of balance thereafter.

But again...there is so much we don't know


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What does skill has to do with the starting line up? Olynyk was way more skilled than Amir and was considered a good positional, team defender. Why didn't we start Olynyk and Horford then? You know why? Because to take pressure off Horford and letting Amir do the dirty work against opposing centers while Olynyk came off the bench to provide the spark on offense. Our bench was severly lacking offense.

If you put Morris as your starter then our bench is left with unproven and incapable scorers. Smart/Rozier/Tatum/????/Baynes and Horford has to spend a ton of energy battling centers.

Morris was actually filling in as a shot creator for Detroit. He wasn't very efficient just like Turner but the very fact that he can create his own shot is very valuable. When you trot out those all bench lineups and they can't get anything on offense, having a guy like Morris is very useful. How many times this board was melting down when bench couldn't get it done and the number one complaint was that we didn't have a capable shot creator off the bench.

I agree that our best lineup would be Morris/Horford at PF/C but you don't always put out your best lineups to start the game.

I guess I don't understand what you're saying. I'm advocating for Morris coming off the bench. That sounds like what you're saying too.

As for the Amir/KO situation from last year, I think you're saying Baynes will start because Amir started to take pressure off Horford and because KO was needed off the bench to spark a lacking offense.

I agree that KO was needed off the bench to help the offense last year. But, I think that is separate from Amir starting. If BOS had more offensive firepower off the bench last year we may have seen KO starting.

This year BOS looks to have that luxury. Smart was one of the better players at generating points out of PnR last year, even without a consistent J. Then you have Morris, who can create off the dribble and is very reliable from spot-up. That seems like a very good one-two punch, with Rozier/Ojeleye/Theis in the mix to put more space on the court for drives - this is where the team seems to be relying on the most development in terms of shooting and overall depth.

I see Baynes in more of a battle with Theis for backup minutes. BOS - and Horford in particular - thrived when he was at the 5.

While I could see Baynes playing more in certain matchups, doesn't it feel like this team loaded up on skilled, versatile players over size?

With the amount of true bigs on the market, the team elected to take only one, for a mere 4.3M. They may fill the last spot with another, but Brad seems to heavily favor players who can pass, shoot, and drive based on makeup of the roster no?


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[BfB]

Horford at the 4 was always a stupid idea.

Am I being too optimistic if I think that there is a big chance that by February the starting line up will be Kyrie, Brown, Hayward, Tatum and Horford? Morris is solid, but you know his limits. Tatum and Hayward could fill in the 4 and run the other team out of the building. You lose some rebounds and streangth but sans the Warriors no one has so much fire power in one unit. And Brown-Hayward-Tatum are all long and solid athletes, I don't think that even the defence would be the worst.

I think it's what the team is hoping for out of camp. All Ainge and Stevens have talked about was putting multiple long, rangy players on the court who can switch defensively onto a ton of different guys.




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[TheOGJabroni]

Has Al or his father publicly talked about their preference of putting Al at PF vs C recently? I didn't think it was an issue anymore, considering the positions are nearly one in the same at this point.

Al is a big in Brad's system, that is it. Paired with him will either be another big (Baynes) or a swing (Morris) most likely. From there, they will just match up accordingly.

Personally, I think Morris should start with Al, that way we have another true big off the bench in Baynes.

[Fidel Sarcasmo]

This thread is cray cray. Stevens era ball is not new. 3 point shooting is heavily emphasized for every single player on the roster and takes precedent over quite a few fan favorite qualities, such as rebounding. Which btw, Yabs and Semi are being groomed as next gen space clearers. Perk and Baby were space clearers, not great rebounders. They function to clear the oppositions primary rebounding threat in order for teammates to sweep the glass. They are essential to the defensive team rebounding concept with 3-4 other athletes on the floor (ideally) in the modern game. It's like people straight missed AB's rebounding last year and don't even question why that happened. Must've turned into twice the rebounder, nothing to do with 4-storming boards crashing at all. Baynes is a widebody but his lack of spacing makes his presence irrlevant on the starting unit while a plus on the bench.

Ideally Tatum and Brown are starters of the future but they are extra green and will take time to develop. An extra floor spacer in Morris is probably three times as functional per our offense as a career back-up C in baynes, who btw is a 3 point shooter in the same capacity that Bass and Zeller were. Neither are long term answers, Brown and Tatum are. But there is very little logic to starting Baynes when you line up the rotation and the way Stevens system works. We won't be starting games with a sub-optimal offense, I can guarantee that because Stevens has never done it.

Great take.

[SMTBSI]

This thread is cray cray. Stevens era ball is not new. 3 point shooting is heavily emphasized for every single player on the roster and takes precedent over quite a few fan favorite qualities, such as rebounding. Which btw, Yabs and Semi are being groomed as next gen space clearers. Perk and Baby were space clearers, not great rebounders. They function to clear the oppositions primary rebounding threat in order for teammates to sweep the glass. They are essential to the defensive team rebounding concept with 3-4 other athletes on the floor (ideally) in the modern game. It's like people straight missed AB's rebounding last year and don't even question why that happened. Must've turned into twice the rebounder, nothing to do with 4-storming boards crashing at all. Baynes is a widebody but his lack of spacing makes his presence irrlevant on the starting unit while a plus on the bench.

Ideally Tatum and Brown are starters of the future but they are extra green and will take time to develop. An extra floor spacer in Morris is probably three times as functional per our offense as a career back-up C in baynes, who btw is a 3 point shooter in the same capacity that Bass and Zeller were. Neither are long term answers, Brown and Tatum are. But there is very little logic to starting Baynes when you line up the rotation and the way Stevens system works. We won't be starting games with a sub-optimal offense, I can guarantee that because Stevens has never done it.

Great take.

Agree completely, but there's an even simpler reason Al will be playing the large majority of his time at C: we just don't have the personnel for him to do otherwise.

- Over the last 3 years, Horford has averaged playing 60.2% of all minutes available on a season.
- Over the last 3 years, Baynes has averaged playing 29.5% of all minutes available on a season.

So, assuming nothing major changes here, Horford+Baynes project to get you about 90% of your C minutes.

Now, even if Horford and Baynes were good to go for more than their averages, you'll never have two guys fill 100% of all available minutes at a position - even if they don't log a single minute together - because any games either of them misses, you're not going to have the other play 48mpg. So, there's always at least a 3rd player in the mix. In this case, it'll presumably be some combination of Theis, Yabs, or whoever we give the 15th roster spot to. I can't see any other candidates. (And I personally wouldn't consider Al the "PF" if playing alongside either Theis or Yabs, though I guess it's greyer with Theis - I can definitely see them giving him the tougher cover for stretches, to save Al some pummeling).

So, if you want Al to spend some time at PF to avoid/exploit certain matchups, you need to get above 100% of needed "C" minutes, then move him down corresponding to that extra margin. You can do this by:
- Baynes and/or Horford logging more than their last-three-year averages.
- Third parties logging more than 10% of possible C minutes (meaning time with neither Al nor Baynes on the court).
- A combination of those two.

So, yeah, there's a lot of margin here. But, even in a world where Baynes is good for more than he's gone for recently, and Theis is totally ready for a good chunk of small-ball C minutes, it's not like you're going to be able to move 75% of Horford's minutes to PF. It's going to be more like 25%. Just like last year.

In reality, if you want to get Al 25% of his minutes at PF, it probably needs to look something like this:

AH(.15)
AH(.45) / AB(.40) / DT(.15)

(Where all numbers are a percentage of available minutes at a position for the entire season.)


Edit 1: And once again, this is why I'm still pretty distressed over losing Zizic. Not that he was a "sure thing" - he was just another candidate for providing us some more flexibility here, when we don't have many candidates.

Edit 2: Also, this is why I absolutely expect Theis to be in the rotation. We're just out of candidates. I'm not buying Yabs at the moment. So, pending how we fill our 15th spot, I've got him penciled in for a solid thousand minutes right now. (Below Jerebko-level contribution, but well above Green/Zeller-level.)

[AlCelticFan]

Perk and Baby were space clearers, not great rebounders.

Perk was a space clearer? Wasn't a good rebounder? This must be a typo.

[SMTBSI]

Oh god. I just realized it.

It's going to be Zeller for the 15th roster spot, isn't it?

It all makes sense all of the sudden.

Emergency-depth guy who won't complain about minutes and provides a little continuity, and will accept the minimum as part of a wink-wink after getting overpaid the last couple of years.


I can see it now: Tyler Zeller becoming the most unlikely 10+ year Celtic of all time. Just constantly finding a way to hang on, year after year, while a certain segment of the fanbase pulls their hair out.

[cloverleaf]

Oh god. I just realized it.

It's going to be Zeller for the 15th roster spot, isn't it?

It all makes sense all of the sudden.

Emergency-depth guy who won't complain about minutes and provides a little continuity, and will accept the minimum as part of a wink-wink after getting overpaid the last couple of years.


I can see it now: Tyler Zeller becoming the most unlikely 10+ year Celtic of all time. Just constantly finding a way to hang on, year after year, while a certain segment of the fanbase pulls their hair out.

With three weeks till training camp, it looks like TZ will be fortunate to get the vet minimum.

[SMTBSI]

Oh god. I just realized it.

It's going to be Zeller for the 15th roster spot, isn't it?

It all makes sense all of the sudden.

Emergency-depth guy who won't complain about minutes and provides a little continuity, and will accept the minimum as part of a wink-wink after getting overpaid the last couple of years.


I can see it now: Tyler Zeller becoming the most unlikely 10+ year Celtic of all time. Just constantly finding a way to hang on, year after year, while a certain segment of the fanbase pulls their hair out.

With three weeks till training camp, it looks like TZ will be fortunate to get the vet minimum.

Which just makes it all the more likely. If he's got no other options, then he'll have to settle for another team-friendly deal with non-guaranteed money. Another year as useful non-guaranteed filler for trades.


It's too late. I've convinced myself of this. You can't talk me down.

[radcot]

If we're bringing back a scrub from last year's team on vet minimum, I'd rather it be Zeller than Green. Green is a much better player of course, but I see zero need for his services on this team. I'd like to think we could do better than Zeller as an emergency big at the end of the bench, but maybe not.

[Disinformation]

Oh god. I just realized it.

It's going to be Zeller for the 15th roster spot, isn't it?

It all makes sense all of the sudden.

Emergency-depth guy who won't complain about minutes and provides a little continuity, and will accept the minimum as part of a wink-wink after getting overpaid the last couple of years.


I can see it now: Tyler Zeller becoming the most unlikely 10+ year Celtic of all time. Just constantly finding a way to hang on, year after year, while a certain segment of the fanbase pulls their hair out.

No, no, my friend. Tyler has done his job -- holding cap space in case of a trade (that never came), being a target for the ire of Celtics fans when we needed one most -- and now his watch is ended.

[SichtingLives]

Perk and Baby were space clearers, not great rebounders.

Perk was a space clearer? Wasn't a good rebounder? This must be a typo.

He was never a great rebounding C but he was excellent at bodying up opposing threats which is crucial to team rebounding. Did a tremendous job for KG, Paul, Ray and Rondo to clear boards for the short time that lasted. Now if you think 5.8 rpg career describes a great rebounder, you might need to re-calibrate your understanding of the word great.

[Darth Celtic]

I think our 15th spot has to be a big man. Yabs will most likely get his mins at the 5 as well.

[VeryMuchWoke]

Perk and Baby were space clearers, not great rebounders.

Perk was a space clearer? Wasn't a good rebounder? This must be a typo.

He was never a great rebounding C but he was excellent at bodying up opposing threats which is crucial to team rebounding. Did a tremendous job for KG, Paul, Ray and Rondo to clear boards for the short time that lasted. Now if you think 5.8 rpg career describes a great rebounder, you might need to re-calibrate your understanding of the word great.

Perk has a higher rebound rate than KG, and led the team, in '10. He also had a number of years with a TRB% around 18, which is pretty comparable to much of KG's prime (though his peak was an absurd 20.3%) About the same as Shaq's prime as well. Maybe Perk wasn't a "great" rebounder, because that's subjective and largely arbitrary, but the idea that he simply boxed guys out while the others "cleared the boards" is not accurate.

His career rebounding numbers certainly aren't impressive, but that's because he hung around long after his peak, hobbled by injuries, as a fringe player.

[SichtingLives]

Perk's entire purpose on a basketball court was to scowl, defend bigs, bang with them on the boards, set hard picks and throw in the occasional garbage bucket. His career rebounding numbers actually suck for a player of his role and his peak numbers aren't particularly impressive either but since there is so much more to rebounding than the simple denotation of who ended up with the ball in his hands, he did serve a very important purpose for us. It doesn't mean he didn't also rebound the ball himself obv. But to suggest that it wasn't Perks job to keep the opponents primary rebounding threat off the glass is a bit of willful mis-remembering. It's very apparent how those teams played the defensive boards if you watch that era of games.

[robbie84]

Horford was always going to start at C with Hayward here and Bradley gone (with Brown showing serious promise).

It'll be a 5 out offense with 3 point shooters at every position (unless Marcus starts at SG which might happen, but unlikely).
With Brown/Morris/Hayward (and Smart ) you have 3 guys that can switch really nicely. They can all run PnR with Horford and Kyrie too.

[Slartibartfast]

Horford was always going to start at C with Hayward here and Bradley gone (with Brown showing serious promise).

It'll be a 5 out offense with 3 point shooters at every position (unless Marcus starts at SG which might happen, but unlikely).
With Brown/Morris/Hayward (and Smart ) you have 3 guys that can switch really nicely. They can all run PnR with Horford and Kyrie too.

Brown is just as much a question mark from 3 as Smart. And I wouldn't trust him to run PNR either.

[BfB]

Horford was always going to start at C with Hayward here and Bradley gone (with Brown showing serious promise).

It'll be a 5 out offense with 3 point shooters at every position (unless Marcus starts at SG which might happen, but unlikely).
With Brown/Morris/Hayward (and Smart ) you have 3 guys that can switch really nicely. They can all run PnR with Horford and Kyrie too.

Brown is just as much a question mark from 3 as Smart. And I wouldn't trust him to run PNR either.

Hayward/Irving/Horford gives the starting unit plenty of PnR prowess to make the other two starters spot up threats, no?


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