OFFSEASON TOPIC: Predicting Averages

[Magic_Johnny12]

3 more weeks until some real basketball action and with Irma approaching lets try to predict some of our players averages to spend the time. Would probably be a funny post to revive after the season has ended to see how accurate/off we were.

I'm going to start with our starting unit (still could change) but feel free to do the others.

Elfrid "I refuse to cut my hair even though I told you personally that I was going to cut it this summer" Payton

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/elfrid-payton/

2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
82 29.4 5.2-11.1 .471 0.5-1.8 .274 1.8-2.6 .692 4.7 6.5 0.5 1.1 2.2 2.2 12.8

My prediction

PPG - 10.3
APG - 7.4
RPG - 3.6
3P% - .30

Analysis - Contract year so I want to assume he's going to try to show out, but I genuinely think the odds are against him. With the acquisition of Mack and more scorers all around on the team I think his PPG dip a bit, but I do think his assist numbers go up as he's literally the only true facilitator on the team. I also think his rebounding numbers take a hit too with Gordon back to his natural position and Vuc being a pretty good rebounder. Payton has a strong work ethic and has already been shown practicing with CP3 so natural progression would say his shooting numbers will go up and I believe that (nothing staggering though). Overall I truly don't think the numbers will directly indicate his on-court worth and attribution as mostly everyone who watches him knows he does a lot of things that dont show up on the stat sheets.

Bonus - I don't think Orlando offers him an extension and let's him hit restricted free agency (which I agree with) IF not dealt by deadline for future pick.

Evan "Just call me Mr. Clutch for now on" Fournier

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/evan-fournier/

2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
68 32.9 6.0-13.7 .439 1.9-5.3 .356 3.3-4.1 .805 3.1 3.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.1 17.2

My prediction

PPG - 20.5
APG - 3.1
RPG - 3.0
3P% - .39

Analysis - I think Fournier breaks the 20ppg barrier this year and continues his clutch plays as the leading scorer of the team. His defense continues to be abysmal and his rebounding and shoot first pass later is consistent to last year. His shooting percentages get back to his 15-16 days and is hovering around 40% at the 3.

Bonus: Plays around 60 games

Terrence "I might be losing my starting job" Ross

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/terrence-ross/

2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
78 25.1 4.2-9.6 .437 1.8-5.0 .363 0.8-1.0 .831 2.6 1.1 0.4 1.1 1.8 0.9 11.0

My prediction

PPG - 11.8
APG - 1.5
RPG - 3.0
3P% - .37

Analysis - Terrence Ross is as inconsistent as they come. One night can go off for 35 and the next night could have 2 points which is why I think he will lose his starting job to hungry Jonathan Simmons if not by end of camp definitely sometime in the season when we go on a losing stretch. I believe he is best served off the bench as a bench scorer/6th man role. He doesn't pass the ball and seems to have a similar style of play as Fournier which we cant have two of in the starting lineup.

Bonus - I think Ross is shopped hard come deadline and combined with one of Payton/Vuc. Next year he's up for an extension and don't see Orlando wanting to pay him what he thinks he's worth especially with the acquisition of Simmons.

Aaron "I'm going to prove EVERYONE wrong" Gordon

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/aaron-gordon/

2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
80 28.7 4.9-10.8 .454 1.0-3.3 .288 2.0-2.7 .719 5.1 1.9 0.5 0.8 2.2 1.1 12.7

My prediction

PPG - 17.2
APG - 2.0
RPG - 7.8
3P% - .35

Analysis - Contract year and the first year him starting at his natural position fully healthy so I fully expect a somewhat breakout season for him. Averaging around 17/8 and raising his 3pt percentage to around 33%. His defense continues to impress and looks great next to Issac (Issac playing the 3 offensively and the 4 defensively). Gordon raises his percentages all across the board and looks like the player we all envisioned him to be. He is in conversation for MIP

Bonus - Orlando offers him a 4yr/70m that he declines. Hits restricted free agency where we are forced to match a max offer from the Nets.

Nikola "Everyone hates me, but I'm actually a good player" Vucevic

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/nikola-vucevic/

2016-17 Regular Season
GP MPG FGM-FGA FG% 3PM-3PA 3P% FTM-FTA FT% RPG APG BLKPG STLPG PFPG TOPG PPG
75 28.8 6.4-13.7 .468 0.3-1.0 .307 1.4-2.1 .669 10.4 2.8 1.0 1.0 2.4 1.6 14.6

My prediction

PPG - 18.2
APG - 2.5
RPG - 9.4

Analysis - People tend to forget how good Vuc was when playing next to Power Forward Aaron Gordon. You could actually say he was playing his best ball of his career. Averaging 22/9 and playing solid defense. I 100% believe he will benefit most out of AG playing PF and get back to form. Nearly averaging a double double with decent defense.

Bonus - Even with Vuc playing at this level I think he's the first to go with the new regime. I truly feel as he will be dealt by deadline to the highest bidder and sell high on his value. For some odd reason I feel like he's dealt to Boston for Morris/Baynes and some pick.

Overall

I think we're better than most people are expecting, but still not good enough to make the playoffs. With the new lottery reformation about to be implemented I could def. see management being extremely active in trades and dealing two of more vets by deadline to ensure a high draft pick.

[p0peye]

Elfrid - 13pt/5rb/6.5as
Fournier - 16pt/4rb/3as
Ross - 11pt/2.5rb/1as
Aaron - 15pt/7rb/2as
Nikola - 16pt/10.5rb/3as

[NEM]

Payton 14 ppg/8 apg/6 rpg
Fournier 14 ppg/3 rpg/2 apg
Ross 11 ppg/3 rpg/2 apg
Gordon 14 ppg/7 rpg/2 apg
Vucevic 15 ppg/9 rpg/2 apg

Isaac 9 ppg/6 rpg/1 apg
Mack 6 ppg/2 apg/2 rpg
Biyombo 5 ppg/7 rpg
Speights 8 ppg/5 rpg
Augustin 6 ppg/2 apg
Hezonja DNP
Simmons no clue
Afflalo no clue

Honestly, a trade needs to happen or a couple of people won't be happy. Namely biyombo, Hezonja, and Augustin

[Max Power]

Here's my predictions:

Elfrid Payton: 12ppg 7 assists 5 rbs
**Payton simply maxes out as a player like this. He does a lot of things well, but scoring isn't one of his great strengths.

Jonathan Simmons: 12ppg 4 assists 1.5 steals
**I think Simmons starts day 1. Ross will be offense off the bench.

Evan Fournier: 18 ppg, 5 rebs
**Evan is still our most versatile offensive threat and I think he'll have a little bit better season than last. Still not a 20ppg guy.

Aaron Gordon: 16 ppg, 7 rebs
**Aaron has his first consistent season at power forward.

Nikola Vucevic: 19ppg 11.2 rebs 1.5blks
**Vuc has a bit of a bounce back year. Like the 15-16 season where he put up all star level numbers. He is the Magics best player, and he'll remind us of that.

Jonathan Issac: 10ppg, 7 rebs 1.8 blks, 1.5 steals.
** Issac proves to be a versatile reserve from the start.

Terance Ross: 8ppg 3rbs, 1 spg
**Good scorer off the bench. Average could be higher. But Simmons and Hezonja take minutes from him. Trade bait come deadline.

Bizmack Biyombo: 7ppg 7rpg, 1.5 blocks.
**This is Bizmacks NBA life and that probably doesn't change.

Shelvin Mack: 7ppg 3 assists
** Shelvin becomes the good backup of we've been missing. Nothing spectacular, but good solid reserve play.

Mario Hezonja: 6ppg 2 rpg
**Mario simply won't get enough playing time. I expect him packaged out in a deadline deal.

DJ Augustine: 4ppg 2 assists
** Won't get much play time with Mack signing. Magic are looking to deal him

Damjan Rudez: 2ppg, 2 rpg
** Vogel fav, can hit an open 3 and owns 5 fouls per game.

I think this team wins 28 games and gets a top 3 pick.








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[MagicStarwipe]

Payton - 14 ppg, 8 apg, 5 rpg
Fournier - 16 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg
Ross - 14 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg
Gordon - 16 ppg, 4 apg, 8 rpg
Vuc - 16 ppg, 2 apg, 10 rpg

[Jiwol]

Honestly, a trade needs to happen or a couple of people won't be happy. Namely biyombo, Hezonja, and Augustin

All of them can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

Not trying to play along with projections though, too many variables.

[pepe1991]

Honestly, a trade needs to happen or a couple of people won't be happy. Namely biyombo, Hezonja, and Augustin

All of them can go to hell as far as I'm concerned.

Not trying to play along with projections though, too many variables.

Magic need trades, it's no secret really. It's not normal to have Ross, AA, Hezonja, Iwundu , Simmons and Isaac all compeating for same position.

[Skybox]

Payton - 14 ppg, 8 apg, 5 rpg
Fournier - 16 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg
Ross - 14 ppg, 3 apg, 3 rpg
Gordon - 16 ppg, 4 apg, 8 rpg
Vuc - 16 ppg, 2 apg, 10 rpg

This looks good to me. I could see Ross, Simmons, Afflalo potentially averaging 30ppg collectively (not sure how it breaks down)
I think EP has a legit chance to average 10apg with all the new depth and my belief that EVERYONE won't have an awful season
For the second year in a row. I could also see Vuc getting 4 or 5 apg if they get the ball moving this season.
Big questions are Isaac (22min, 12ppg, 6rpg, 2 blocks ), Mario (20min, 10ppg,3.5apg)! Biz (18min, 7ppg, 7rpg, 1.5 big)
Mack contributes, doesn't screw up, supports EP - who becomes the clear PG.

[drsd]

a) when Ross and Fournier play together, Fournier is the SF.
b) I do not see Ross starting.

For me the best case is:
Payton - 13 ppg / 7 apg / 6 rpg (a triple double machine)
Fournier - 21 ppg / 3 apg / 3rpg (the scorer)
Simmons - 9 ppg / 1 apg / 2 rpg (a one-dimensional defender)
Gordon - 14 ppg / 2 apg / 7 rpg (multi-dimensional player; great at nothing)
Vučević - 16 ppg / 3 apg / 12 rpg (offensive player with elite rebounding)

Orlando thus needs 20++ ppg off of the bench for the above roster to carry the team. The roster is still built around defense, but I think this year some of it will be found.


..

[drsd]

... I could also see Vuc getting 4 or 5 apg ... .

I think there is an excellent chance Vučević is second on the team in apg. He is that good a passer. 5 apg is a bit much for me though. Maybe 3.5.


..

[Bensational]

It's hard to predict, without knowing exactly how the offense will run. But if all things are still the same, I could see them carrying over their post ASB numbers.

But if Simmons starts and becomes more of a point-forward offense driver, it will change the balance entirely.

[the_hobo]

Nicholson:

0/0/0/0/0

:'(

[pepe1991]

Giving a try:
Fournier 18 , 3-3
Vučević 14,5 - 8- 2,5
Gordon 13,5- 7,5- 1,3
Payton 13- 7,5 -5
Ross or Simmons depending who starts , 12 ppg