What do you think of Luka Doncic as a prospect?

[Goudelock]

I was going to ask this on the draft board, but that Doncic thread is a cesspool. So I'm hoping that some people on here can help me out. I've heard about him for a few years now and I've watched some of his youtube highlights (I can't watch the tournament), and I don't know what to make of the hype. One one hand he looks like a good passer who seems to have a nice array of Pierce-like scoring moves. But he also looks sort of unathletic and slow of foot. What do you guys think of Doncic and how good do you think he will be in the NBA?

[Magic_Johnny12]

Celing- Danilo Gallanari
Floor - Current Mario Hezonja

[HotelVitale]

You need to change the topic title, since that answer is obviously no. A 'generational' prospect is the best guy in his generation (or maybe in like a 8 year window), and I'm not sure the most ardent Doncic fans would even put him in the conversation for that. His limited burst and athleticism keep him from that, but he's also obviously got a lot to get excited about. But we're not going to get to it if the thread is about 'generational' whatevers.

[Goudelock]

You need to change the topic title, since that answer is obviously no. A 'generational' prospect is the best guy in his generation (or maybe in like a 8 year window), and I'm not sure the most ardent Doncic fans would even put him in the conversation for that. His limited burst and athleticism keep him from that, but he's also obviously got a lot to get excited about. But we're not going to get to it if the thread is about 'generational' whatevers.

I changed it. And thanks for the informative answer.

[Ice Trae]

rich mans turkoglu. which isnt a bad thing by any means

[jptremblay]

Ceiling: Ricky Rubio with shooting skills.
Floor: Current Elfrid Payton with better shooting hability but worse on defense.

[Stillwater]

over rated





BUT EXTREMELY GIFTED PLAYER REGARDLESS AND A TOP 5 LOCK

[NoBias]

He will not be that good in the NBA. Solid role player at best.

[Pachinko_]

Ηe's legit but people need to settle down a little bit with the generational stuff, he's nothing like that.
My best comparison in both value and skillset is a cross between Peja Stojakovic and Goran Dragic.

I was also gonna say Drazen Petrovic, but Petro was maybe an even bigger prodigy in Europe at the same age, and most importantly he was tough as nails, total succeed or die mentality. I don't know if Doncic has all that, maybe he does but he hasn't really faced adversity in his career yet to see how he reacts. Petro powered through a tonne of crap in the League.

And people are right, he will need to transform his body a little bit to become like these guys. Nothing undoable but still a fair bit of work to get stronger and faster. NBA is a good place for that so it doesn't worry me, they say he's not lazy at all.

[tirador]

rich mans turkoglu. which isnt a bad thing by any means

I have been saying that for two years, we just don't know how richer.

[J_T]

I think Doncic will be a perennial AS. I also predict that Doncic will be a triple double machine and has a good chance of having a triple double season or two. When it comes to "generational" talent, I would never claim that for anyone, because the odds are just heavily stacked against everyone. Let's put it this way: by me betting against any "generational talents" in last 20 years, I'd become rich. And yes, I would have bet against LeBron being a generational player as well, that's the one bet I would have lost. It's safe to always be skeptical and bet against next big thing.

That being said, there are talents and there are talents. When Bargnani was drafted as number 1 I laughed at the hype. To me he had bust written all over his face, he looked like a softie with no winning mentality. Bargnani actually had a better NBA career than I thought he'd have. When I see Doncic play, he looks like a stud to me. Also there is a big difference when it comes to WHO is creating the hype. Fan created hype means nothing. As a contrarian by nature, I usually go against what the crowd says, worked out pretty well for me. In case of Doncic, the hype is being created by some very experienced and respectable talent scouts. If one of them says Doncic is the biggest talent they have ever monitored, why would I doubt their words? Recently one of the most known European coaches admitted that he had thought Doncic was over-hyped - until he saw him playing live. Now he is a believer and says he is the biggest talent since Drazen Petrovic. Again, who am I to doubt someone as respected (and old) as this guy who had seen everything?

Another interesting thing I've noticed with all these pro scouts is, that they all seem to have big difficulties finding NBA comparisons for Doncic. One of them admitted that he had never had so many problems finding a comparable player. He actually couldn't have come with anyone, but he had to pick some players, it's his job. Most of these experts pick a starter on a top team type of a comparison but then add "only better". It's a pretty safe way to do it, because nobody says how much better. In case of Doncic I actually think that inability to find perfect NBA comparisons works in his favor, not against him. Let's face it - if he actually becomes a superstar with his particular skill set, he'd been a pretty unique one.

I do have to say that I think physical predispositions are overrated, even in NBA. Over the last couple of decades I have heard too many times something along "he has the physical predispositions, he can always learn everything else". Guess what, they almost never do learn "everything else", they do however ALWAYS physically improve. Doncic will physically improve, just like every other Euro coming to the NBA in last 30 years. The only thing that I believe can be relatively easily learned after the draft is playing defense. I have seen players that played no defense at all becoming solid defensive players so when it comes to getting the defense learned, I am a believer. When it comes to shooting, passing, vision, ball control - I am always skeptical.

[Genjuro]

I don't think Doncic will become a superstar in the NBA, because you need to be able to beat your opponents one-on-one on a regular basis, and he doesn't seem to have the athletic ability to do that. Otherwise, I think his floor is really high and I would bet that he becomes a deluxe complementary player.

[Ryoga Hibiki]

That being said, there are talents and there are talents. When Bargnani was drafted as number 1 I laughed at the hype. To me he had bust written all over his face, he looked like a softie with no winning mentality.

Unless you really had direct access to him and to the Benetton organization this sounds like hindsight talks.
While there were questions about his attitude, there was really nothing conclusive and he actually finished his last season very strong. Otherwise Gherardini wouldn't have killed his NBA opportunity bringing Andrea with him.


Sent from my Nokia 3210 using Tapatalk

[THE J0KER]

Key Word: ShootingPointGuardForward
Ceiling: James Harden
Floor: Joe Johnson

Talking about best case scenario, I will only recap few things about James Harden, which should be useful for Luka Doncic estimation:
- James Harden defense is a joke, but who cares about that when he is such offensive monster.
- James Harden FG% is nothing special, but thanks to his shooting FT and 3pt profile, his TS% (way more relevant category than FG%) belongs to the elite level
- No matter will he turn into JJ or Harden, for such ShootingPointGuardForward rare type of player would be very helpful and useful to develop under control of some utter-offensively thinking coach similar to Mike D'Antony, which knows how to develop and most effectively use such players
(BTW if someone thinking that Doncic seems much more like all-around player than big scorer, my answer is that regular 15+ ppg stats for a junior player in serious senior competitions such like ACB league, Euroleague, Eurobasket, is sign of future big scorer, which for NBA means 20+ career average, 25+ at his peak).

At end, one very interesting fact (I have no time to check, but I'm pretty sure in this):
If Luka Doncic will be chosen at upcoming 2018 draft like the TOP3 pick, he will be first white guard chosen as a TOP3 pick in last about 40 years! How risky is to spend a high pick on backcourt white player tall 2.01 or smaller, we can see from a small number of such players which reached all-star game or some all-NBA team in past about 40 years: Stockton, Nash, Ginobili, Pete Maravich, Mark Price, Jeff Hornacek, Drazen Petrovic... Maybe I forget someone, but it is still no more than just 1-2 per decade. But Doncic seems like a good bet that he is the one.

[BoardCrusher]

Ηe's legit but people need to settle down a little bit with the generational stuff, he's nothing like that.
My best comparison in both value and skillset is a cross between Peja Stojakovic and Goran Dragic.

I was also gonna say Drazen Petrovic, but Petro was maybe an even bigger prodigy in Europe at the same age, and most importantly he was tough as nails, total succeed or die mentality. I don't know if Doncic has all that, maybe he does but he hasn't really faced adversity in his career yet to see how he reacts. Petro powered through a tonne of crap in the League.

And people are right, he will need to transform his body a little bit to become like these guys. Nothing undoable but still a fair bit of work to get stronger and faster. NBA is a good place for that so it doesn't worry me, they say he's not lazy at all.

Petrovic was nowhere close to Doncic at age 17/18, Aco Petrovic himself pointed it out in a recent interview.

[Pachinko_]

Ηe's legit but people need to settle down a little bit with the generational stuff, he's nothing like that.
My best comparison in both value and skillset is a cross between Peja Stojakovic and Goran Dragic.

I was also gonna say Drazen Petrovic, but Petro was maybe an even bigger prodigy in Europe at the same age, and most importantly he was tough as nails, total succeed or die mentality. I don't know if Doncic has all that, maybe he does but he hasn't really faced adversity in his career yet to see how he reacts. Petro powered through a tonne of crap in the League.

And people are right, he will need to transform his body a little bit to become like these guys. Nothing undoable but still a fair bit of work to get stronger and faster. NBA is a good place for that so it doesn't worry me, they say he's not lazy at all.

Petrovic was nowhere close to Doncic at age 17/18, Aco Petrovic himself pointed it out in a recent interview.

Did he really? Wow... ok I'll take his word then, nobody knew his brother better than him.

It's been a long time and there was no internet or anything like that, so I only really got to see him play very rarely but I remember in basketball circles Drazen was discussed like the second coming of Jesus Christ at the time. He did practically win a Yugoslavian championship at the age of 18, which was a pretty big deal. Also I remember this was despite some hip problems he had as a child and also following a primitive work out regime which was only really addressed when he got a professional trainer in the NBA. So he had in some ways a slow start, and yet he was head and shoulders above anybody else his age (except Arvydas of course)

[THE J0KER]

It's been a long time and there was no internet or anything like that, so I only really got to see him play very rarely but I remember in basketball circles Drazen was discussed like the second coming of Jesus Christ at the time. He did practically win a Yugoslavian championship at the age of 18, which was a pretty big deal. Also I remember this was despite some hip problems he had as a child and also following a primitive work out regime which was only really addressed when he got a professional trainer in the NBA. So he had in some ways a slow start, and yet he was head and shoulders above anybody else his age (except Arvydas of course)

After about 30 years later, seems that you forget some details from a bigger picture why Drazen Petrovic youngster hype case is so unprecedented in former Yugoslavia sports history.

When Drazen Petrovic is just 18-20 old, in the middle of the 80'is, ex-Yugoslavia basketball is actually at the lowest point! One fantastic generation becomes too old and suddenly goes overnight, and there is nobody around even close to Cosic, Dalipagic, Kicanovic, Slavnic, Delibasic level. Also, our national soccer team have pathetic results at the time (WC82, EC84, WC86), so country which used to be big force in several teams sports and pump their pride and confidence from that fact, suddenly started to suck badly in most delicate moment (in years right after dead of supreme leader Tito). And that is exactly the moment when Drazen Petrovic comes into play in big scene, young guy which played on level which nobody played before, especially at his age (in Yugoslavia and Europe of course, NBA league at the time is like something totally unknown from the other planet for most of the basketball fans from the rest of the world, including Yugoslavia), and without any serious competition he simply dominated the game in our domestic league, very soon he obey with Cibona European clubs scene, and already as junior become leader of our national team (something like Laury Markanen in Finland today, but Finland is not "basketball country" like Yugoslavia is). Future stars like Divac, Kukoc, Radja, Djordjevic, Danilovic... is just unknown under-15 boys at the time, future superteams Partizan and Jugoplastika is still not established, so there is only Drazen and Cibona, and yes, he is something like true sporting God between 1984-87 in Yugoslavia, and very helpful for that status is fact that together with big talent, he possesses great charisma also.

To be clear, at 18 he is not that good as Luka Doncic is today. But Drazen Petrovic by far biggest improvement is at 21 anyway, when he is back from a wasted year in Yugoslav JNA military service (not totally wasted, he actually worked individually that year in "sports unit" which even compete in national Cup competition) and moved from Sibenik to Cibona, Zagreb. So let's wait for 2020 and see will Doncic reach the same or even better level at 21.

[UcanUwill]

Ha at Mario Hezonja floor. 17 year old Luka was already miles better player than Hezonja ever was. Luka does literally everything much better at basketball than Hezonja could ever do, excluding jumping. Good luck with that bust.

His floor is more like Joe Ingles, if you think DOncic already peaked, that is.
He can turn out as new Paul Pierce.

[Mirotic12]

Ηe's legit but people need to settle down a little bit with the generational stuff, he's nothing like that.
My best comparison in both value and skillset is a cross between Peja Stojakovic and Goran Dragic.

I was also gonna say Drazen Petrovic, but Petro was maybe an even bigger prodigy in Europe at the same age, and most importantly he was tough as nails, total succeed or die mentality. I don't know if Doncic has all that, maybe he does but he hasn't really faced adversity in his career yet to see how he reacts. Petro powered through a tonne of crap in the League.

And people are right, he will need to transform his body a little bit to become like these guys. Nothing undoable but still a fair bit of work to get stronger and faster. NBA is a good place for that so it doesn't worry me, they say he's not lazy at all.

Petrovic was nowhere close to Doncic at age 17/18, Aco Petrovic himself pointed it out in a recent interview.

Did he really? Wow... ok I'll take his word then, nobody knew his brother better than him.

It's been a long time and there was no internet or anything like that, so I only really got to see him play very rarely but I remember in basketball circles Drazen was discussed like the second coming of Jesus Christ at the time. He did practically win a Yugoslavian championship at the age of 18, which was a pretty big deal. Also I remember this was despite some hip problems he had as a child and also following a primitive work out regime which was only really addressed when he got a professional trainer in the NBA. So he had in some ways a slow start, and yet he was head and shoulders above anybody else his age (except Arvydas of course)

People with nostalgia will argue endlessly, but fact is fact. Go watch a game in European basketball from the 1980s........the level of guard play in today's European basketball is miles and miles better than it was then.

The big man play really has not changed that much, although the big men today are overall more athletic for sure. But the guard play....it's like a different world. Guys like Drazen and Galis were monsters for their day....but they would be nothing similar now, to what they were then, if they were playing today. Giannakis was like the only guy that could do a step back 3 consistently in Europe in those days...you just can't compare the times, the level of skill is so far higher now for guards.

[Genjuro]

It's been a long time and there was no internet or anything like that, so I only really got to see him play very rarely but I remember in basketball circles Drazen was discussed like the second coming of Jesus Christ at the time. He did practically win a Yugoslavian championship at the age of 18, which was a pretty big deal. Also I remember this was despite some hip problems he had as a child and also following a primitive work out regime which was only really addressed when he got a professional trainer in the NBA. So he had in some ways a slow start, and yet he was head and shoulders above anybody else his age (except Arvydas of course)

After about 30 years later, seems that you forget some details from a bigger picture why Drazen Petrovic youngster hype case is so unprecedented in former Yugoslavia sports history.

When Drazen Petrovic is just 18-20 old, in the middle of the 80'is, ex-Yugoslavia basketball is actually at the lowest point! One fantastic generation becomes too old and suddenly goes overnight, and there is nobody around even close to Cosic, Dalipagic, Kicanovic, Slavnic, Delibasic level. Also, our national soccer team have pathetic results at the time (WC82, EC84, WC86), so country which used to be big force in several teams sports and pump their pride and confidence from that fact, suddenly started to suck badly in most delicate moment (in years right after dead of supreme leader Tito). And that is exactly the moment when Drazen Petrovic comes into play in big scene, young guy which played on level which nobody played before, especially at his age (in Yugoslavia and Europe of course, NBA league at the time is like something totally unknown from the other planet for most of the basketball fans from the rest of the world, including Yugoslavia), and without any serious competition he simply dominated the game in our domestic league, very soon he obey with Cibona European clubs scene, and already as junior become leader of our national team (something like Laury Markanen in Finland today, but Finland is not "basketball country" like Yugoslavia is). Future stars like Divac, Kukoc, Radja, Djordjevic, Danilovic... is just unknown under-15 boys at the time, future superteams Partizan and Jugoplastika is still not established, so there is only Drazen and Cibona, and yes, he is something like true sporting God between 1984-87 in Yugoslavia, and very helpful for that status is fact that together with big talent, he possesses great charisma also.

To be clear, at 18 he is not that good as Luka Doncic is today. But Drazen Petrovic by far biggest improvement is at 21 anyway, when he is back from a wasted year in Yugoslav JNA military service (not totally wasted, he actually worked individually that year in "sports unit" which even compete in national Cup competition) and moved from Sibenik to Cibona, Zagreb. So let's wait for 2020 and see will Doncic reach the same or even better level at 21.

I wouldn't go as far as saying that Yugoslavian basketball was at its lowest point. I'm pretty sure the league was stronger in the early 80s that it was in the 60s, for example. But it was likely a low point during the golden period, with Kicanovic, Slavnic, Jerkov, Dalipagic and Delibasic playing in foreign leagues and Cosic almost retired.

As for Petrovic, his precociousness has been often overstated. Still, he blossomed in the 1982/83 season, when he was only 18 years old (he was born in October) becoming the top scorer of the Yugoslavian league to lead Sibenka, not only to almost win the domestic league title (only a shady decision from the Federation prevented him to), but also to a Korac Cup final. So as weak as the league might be, he was making waves also at the European stage.

It's not so easy to compare him to Doncic, who is shining at a higher competition level and is a few months younger. Still, IMO the level Luka has shown so far at this age has the only precedent of Sabonis.

The big man play really has not changed that much, although the big men today are overall more athletic for sure.

Yes, we know the drill: Meneghin was as skilled as Pau Gasol, wasn't he?