RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 (Reggie Miller)

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 (Reggie Miller) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Mon Sep 11, 2017 11:18 pm

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. ???

Go!

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#2 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Sep 12, 2017 12:50 am

Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#3 » by THKNKG » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:38 am

Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM holds very strongly in favor of Reggie, even though we just have it for his last few years.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#4 » by oldschooled » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:21 am

Still not sold on Allen, Pierce, Reggie at this point. Yes they contributed highly on winning (WS), longevity and are high impact guys but there's still guys left with MVP's and championships. I just can't put them above those guys.

Vote: Willis Reed
Alt: Wes Unseld
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According to your logic, Tim Duncan doesn't deserve any respect.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#5 » by oldschooled » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:25 am

Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM, Win Shares, BPM, VORP and Peak (maybe) favors Reggie over Allen and maybe over Pierce also.
Frank Dux wrote:
LeChosen One wrote:Doc is right. The Warriors shouldn't get any respect unless they repeat to be honest.


According to your logic, Tim Duncan doesn't deserve any respect.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#6 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:50 am

micahclay wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM holds very strongly in favor of Reggie, even though we just have it for his last few years.


Can you post stats?
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#7 » by Clyde Frazier » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:53 am

Vote 1 - Willis Reed

Vote 2 - Dolph Schayes

On their way to the championship in 1970, willis helped the knicks knock off 2 of the most dominant centers of all time in wilt and kareem. Undersized for a center at 6’9”, his brute strength and good defensive instincts were still able to deter them. He also had a great outside shot for a big man, which was very effective against wilt in his later years. He would again get the best of wilt in 73 when the knicks took down the lakers in the finals.

I don’t have a problem with questioning his 2 finals MVPs relative to Clyde’s level of play in those series. However, I don’t doubt that reed was a player whose impact went beyond the box score, and I’d say that’s what voters were recognizing when selecting him as finals MVP in both seasons. This was best exemplified in the famous moment when reed came through the tunnel in game 7 of the 70 finals:



As the lakers were warming up, they froze as they saw willis coming onto the court (he had previously missed game 6 with a torn muscle in his thigh, and no one expected him to play). He hit his first 2 jumpers, and the rest was history. Dramatic narrative? Of course, but Clyde himself said they wouldn’t have had the confidence to go out there and perform like they did without their captain leading the way. When you have the talent to back it up as willis did, that makes a difference.

He was certainly deserving of winning reg season MVP in 1970, leading the knicks to a 60-22 record and the #1 ranked SRS in the league. He put together season averages of 21.7 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 2 APG, 50.7 FG, 75.6% FT, 55.2% TS (+4.1% above league avg) and .227 WS/48.

From 69-73, reed would anchor a knicks defense that ranked in the top 3rd of the league for 4 seasons:

69 - 4th
70 - 1st
71 - 2nd
73 - 4th

The season after reed retired, the knicks dropped to 11th (of 18) in DRTG. His impact on that end of the floor was clear, as was the ability to lead a group of players to what’s often considered one of the best stretches of “team play” in NBA history.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#8 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:53 am

Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


I firmly think Allen was better but at the same time I'm not sure it is by much, which begs me to ask why I'm firm on Allen.

For me it comes down to I think Allen can play more roles. I think miller had a team built around him in a way Allen never did and I tend to think he had better coaches on top of that. I'm thinking their best coaches while still near prime levels are Larry Brown vs George Karl? I would be open to a case that Miller was a clear better defender. And thanks to the last thread I am wondering more about why/how Miller got more free throws than Allen. These are two guys I grew up watching, but unlike some I don't trust my memory to be 100% on players I haven't seen in their prime in over a decade.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#9 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:54 am

oldschooled wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM, Win Shares, BPM, VORP and Peak (maybe) favors Reggie over Allen and maybe over Pierce also.


The gap in everything but RAPM (I haven't see any with miller) is so small I'd almost ignore the stats. Much like I wouldn't give Pierce much credit for PER.

I also kinda feel like there somewhere needs to be extra credit for playing with Walker for Pierce. I'm only 50% joking on this.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#10 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:57 am

1. Reed - Short career, not the best player on his team, but the captain. I see him based on what I know and the small sample of quarters I've seen him play as a high intangibles guy, and as an early era example of a stretch big. He ranks high on other people's lists where I think they take a more historical focus, and he won in NYC (I won't explain this as I'll upset people but lets just say I think rather poorly of that city but I have to add it). As for awards he's a 5 time all nba guy. Lets compare that to Miller (3) and Pierce (4) who are getting a lot of love here. I think the league scaled well so not having a 3rd team is fair for Reed and having one is fair for Pierce (Dunno about miller's first one in 95 before that expansion). 5x allstar ties miller but pales to pierce. 2x finals MVP and an MVP. 2x nba champ. the MVP, finals MVP, and 2 rings pass both miller and pierce. Seems silly but Hayes getting some love never hit the 20 PER mark, and Reed did it twice. He also did it in the playoffs 4 times all be it some short series in a few cases. It was a short career and I'd be open to changing this vote but I'm not compelled by longer careers by guys like Miler who had great teams around them and yet didn't manage to do more. A guy who was able to do more but perhaps was on a worse team I could consider here or perhaps a case for one of those from his era who I'm underrating, but right now I think I'm good with Reed

2. The Alt. D Howard. I really wasn't thinking Howard until I saw the Ewing vote. That vote while it didn't sell me on Ewing made me think and if you had Ewing in, I think Howard at this point is a clear cute next guy. I think Howard is a better defender, I don't think it's that close. Howard never had an Oakley or a coach like Riley. Ewing was the better scorer and his career imo was a bit better. I have Ewing ahead of Howard. And I'm fully with people saying Howard was a mental case and a bad team guy. Where I struggle however is with how darn good he's been. He gets his love for beating lebron and making a finals, but I rarely hear any credit for his work on houston where he beat already in top 25 guy Chris Paul (in maybe his best season) in 2015 to make the conference finals. Nearly 18 and 14 with a great field goal percentage and star level GmSc. His career playoff PER is 22.3, his WS/48 is .168, BPM of 3.5....these are star level playoff numbers across the board. He is already 44th all time in WS, 57th in VORP, 37th in career PER, and he is 99.1% on the hall of fame probability (and that system doesn't value all nba or DPOY). He is also a 6 time leader in the league in rebounds per game, I point this out as we still see the scoring champ as an award, but he was a rebounding champ and a block champ (2x). A 3 time defensive player of the year, and I think all 3 where legit, an 8 time all nba and 8 time allstar. if he weren't a team killer and a nut case how is he not already in?

I'm also looking at Iverson, Unseld, Cowens, Cousy, and I'm interested in some good cases for Schayes who is a guy I know pretty much in name only (much like Arzin also from that era). The next group is going to be Miller, Pierce, Westbrook (I think he'll be close to 60 for me), and then we'll get into a lot of the defensive specialists. Oh and Manu is coming very soon.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#11 » by THKNKG » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:05 am

dhsilv2 wrote:
micahclay wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM holds very strongly in favor of Reggie, even though we just have it for his last few years.


Can you post stats?


3 highest years we have of Reggie (doc's scaled sheet) - 8.32, 5.77, 5.10

3 highest we have of Ray - 5.61, 4.78, 4.29
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#12 » by dhsilv2 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:08 am

micahclay wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
micahclay wrote:
RAPM holds very strongly in favor of Reggie, even though we just have it for his last few years.


Can you post stats?


3 highest years we have of Reggie (doc's scaled sheet) - 8.32, 5.77, 5.10

3 highest we have of Ray - 5.61, 4.78, 4.29


What years for miller are in there? Trying to add some context to these. Also defense/offense? As I said in another post, I'm rather interested in knowing if Miller was a meaningfully better defender (he certainly had size/length).
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#13 » by Dr Positivity » Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:54 am

micahclay wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM holds very strongly in favor of Reggie, even though we just have it for his last few years.


Allen's RAPM in his prime is underwhelming, from 02 on in J.E.'s he finishes

02 - 180th
03 - 111th
04 - 61st
05 - 52nd
06 - 20th
07 - 57th

But after Boston trade he improves:

08 - 47th
09 - 19th
10 - 13th
11 - 24th

His on/off in 09 (+10.8) and 10 (+11.5) are also the best of his career for the tracked years

Miller's 98-00 in ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt numbers RPI

98 - 13th
99 - 26th
00 - 17th

So in a 3 year stretch around the same stage of his career as 98-00 Miller, Allen does as well and it's difficult to hold his earlier years against him when we don't have the same years for Miller such as 90-93 when the team won 40-42 games every year. It's possible that like Allen, the version of Miller that did 24.6ppg is not as high impact a way to use him as the 18-19ppg floor spacer he was later.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#14 » by mikejames23 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:41 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


or Manu for that matter. Completely willing to list out his RAPM numbers, too. :nod:
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#15 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:52 pm

oldschooled wrote:Still not sold on Allen, Pierce, Reggie at this point. Yes they contributed highly on winning (WS), longevity and are high impact guys but there's still guys left with MVP's and championships. I just can't put them above those guys.

Vote: Willis Reed
Alt: Wes Unseld


Should these guys have been seen as MVP caliber players though? To me both Reed & Unseld's MVP years were pretty fluky.

I'll add that Reed also has major longevity issues.


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#16 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Sep 12, 2017 2:54 pm

Fundamentals21 wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


or Manu for that matter. Completely willing to list out his RAPM numbers, too. :nod:


Ginobili played much fewer minutes and did so disproportionately against bench competition compared to other stars.

I'm not going to say you're crazy for putting Ginobili over Miller, but in general I think it's very hard to place Ginobili. I could see someone siding with him here, I'd also understand him being far lower.


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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#17 » by Winsome Gerbil » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:03 pm

And as I have mentioned, Allen Iverson was considerably more dominant than any of those names.

I do think Miller, Allen, Manu deserve to all be talked about in the same range. But that range should be out around 50+ after we clear out the rest of the MVP caliber First Team All NBA face of the league guys who have played.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#18 » by mikejames23 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 3:25 pm

Doctor MJ wrote:
Fundamentals21 wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


or Manu for that matter. Completely willing to list out his RAPM numbers, too. :nod:


Ginobili played much fewer minutes and did so disproportionately against bench competition compared to other stars.

I'm not going to say you're crazy for putting Ginobili over Miller, but in general I think it's very hard to place Ginobili. I could see someone siding with him here, I'd also understand him being far lower.


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He isn't? Those are only the case for his decline type seasons.Take up a season like ~2011 the top 5 man units have Manu in them, and those units are taking the bulk of the minutes. 05-11 it was this way. 12-14 were decline type seasons but he was trusted far more in playoff competition.

Edit: Also a 30+ MPG playoff player in the 05-11 span. Checked 82games data and it appears 2012 was the first time you'd spot Manu + Bench Unit as being his top lineup.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#19 » by trex_8063 » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:46 pm

dhsilv2 wrote:
micahclay wrote:
dhsilv2 wrote:
Can you post stats?


3 highest years we have of Reggie (doc's scaled sheet) - 8.32, 5.77, 5.10

3 highest we have of Ray - 5.61, 4.78, 4.29


What years for miller are in there? Trying to add some context to these. Also defense/offense? As I said in another post, I'm rather interested in knowing if Miller was a meaningfully better defender (he certainly had size/length).


Doc's scaled sheets go back as far as '98, and do not include '01.

colts18 provided some rs-only NPI RAPM for '94-'96 (or based on his description, it might actually "only" be an APM model; but APM is better than nothing). According to those, Reggie ranked 12th in the league in '94 (ahead of Charles Barkley, John Stockton, and Scottie Pippen, to name a few); dips a bit to 30th in the league in '95, then back up to 14th in '96.

From ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt, in '97 he ranked 77th (if I counted right) in NPI RAPM.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List: #42 

Post#20 » by Doctor MJ » Tue Sep 12, 2017 4:50 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:
micahclay wrote:
Dr Positivity wrote:Since Miller is going to be one of the frontrunners this thread, how confident are we that Miller > Allen?


RAPM holds very strongly in favor of Reggie, even though we just have it for his last few years.


Allen's RAPM in his prime is underwhelming, from 02 on in J.E.'s he finishes

02 - 180th
03 - 111th
04 - 61st
05 - 52nd
06 - 20th
07 - 57th

But after Boston trade he improves:

08 - 47th
09 - 19th
10 - 13th
11 - 24th

His on/off in 09 (+10.8) and 10 (+11.5) are also the best of his career for the tracked years

Miller's 98-00 in ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt numbers RPI

98 - 13th
99 - 26th
00 - 17th

So in a 3 year stretch around the same stage of his career as 98-00 Miller, Allen does as well and it's difficult to hold his earlier years against him when we don't have the same years for Miller such as 90-93 when the team won 40-42 games every year. It's possible that like Allen, the version of Miller that did 24.6ppg is not as high impact a way to use him as the 18-19ppg floor spacer he was later.


True however it's a very risky assumption to state their careers are analogous in arc given that their respective arcs had such distinct differences.


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