ATL Week 3

[MickeyDavis]

Browns a road favorite for the first time in awhile.

Have to root for Atlanta. Ugh. And Tampa.

Seattle at Tennessee could be interesting.

Otherwise a pretty blah week.

[MVP2110]

I'm still pulling for Detroit this week. We get two shots at them. We don't get any more shots at Atlanta.

[Kerb Hohl]

This might be the best Detroit team there will be in the Rodgers era. Their recent drafts look pretty good and they've paid a solid supporting cast. Things will begin to erode a bit when they're still paying Lang, Wagner, etc. plus have Stafford's contract but I'm pretty impressed with what they have right now.

I'm not feeling threatened by it, but they are going to win 10 or 11 games and keep the Packers honest to make sure we also win 11 or 12 to win the division. TeamRankings has the Packers' playoff odds at only 60% right now, which is lower than the 65-70% of most of the top 10. I think that's because there are a lot of scenarios where the Lions win the division and then the Packers are at the mercy of catching a Wild Card.

[Ron Swanson]

We made it out of our toughest two game stretch at 1-1. Detroit's played two really bad football teams. I don't think they're at all legit and I'm predicting that they lose 4 of their next 6 games.

[Kerb Hohl]

We made it out of our toughest two game stretch at 1-1. Detroit's played two really bad football teams. I don't think they're at all legit and I'm predicting that they lose 4 of their next 6 games.

Detroit is projected for 9.5 wins right now and the Packers are projected for 9.6 on TeamRankings.

It takes a few weeks for everything to level out in the ratings, but Vegas spreads are generally dead on these ratings systems. In other sports the rating systems aren't great - they are right on the nuts as the NFL season goes by.

This still suggests that the Packers are 3-4 points better (TeamRankings right now says it's 2.3, but I think once more data comes in it'll be closer to 4) on a neutral field and maybe a touchdown better at home. That's pretty much what we have been in most other years that we go 11-5 and they go 9-7 or something like that...but given how the early season has shaken out, schedules, and that I think Detroit has improved...we're both projected for about 10 wins. Gun to my head I say we go 11-5 and they go 10-6, but it's going to be close.

[Mags FTW]

Injuries have become such a huge part of this sport, that I've given up trying to project future outcomes.

[Kerb Hohl]

Injuries have become such a huge part of this sport, that I've given up trying to project future outcomes.

Well, yeah, but it's a good approximation of if injuries are relatively even between teams.

I'm not saying that the Lions WILL win 10 games and the Packers WILL win 10 games according to the projections but that's what the teams' abilities and upcoming schedules suggest. Maybe we luck out and see one team without a starting QB but maybe the Lions luck out and see another team without one.

[humanrefutation]

Here's an interesting feature on ESPN about Eddie Lacy and the struggles he had with his weight:

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/20756278/seattle-seahawks-eddie-lacy-opens-public-struggle-weight

[RRyder823]

Injuries have become such a huge part of this sport, that I've given up trying to project future outcomes.

Well, yeah, but it's a good approximation of if injuries are relatively even between teams.

I'm not saying that the Lions WILL win 10 games and the Packers WILL win 10 games according to the projections but that's what the teams' abilities and upcoming schedules suggest. Maybe we luck out and see one team without a starting QB but maybe the Lions luck out and see another team without one.

Lions got a good team. Problem is they're the Lions.

I got them pegged as one of the WCs but once again. They're the Lions

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G870A using RealGM mobile app

[HKPackFan]

Here's an interesting feature on ESPN about Eddie Lacy and the struggles he had with his weight:

http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/20756278/seattle-seahawks-eddie-lacy-opens-public-struggle-weight

I feel bad for eddie, seems all the fat jokes do get to him. If he was fat and running over people like Bettis was, there would be fat jokes but everyone would still love the guy.

But I don't think any fan can forget him running into open field, failing to breakaway from 300lb linemen, and eventually being brought down. The old Lacy does not huff and puff and slow down like he's joe shmoe climbing stairs stuffing his face with a big mac. The Old lacy takes violent contact and rumbles over or through people, the fat lacy doesn't have the same balance and goes down quickly with contact.

Either Lacy took on too much punishment and doesn't have the ability to move like he used to, or his weight has slowed him down and robbed him of his ability to get to the second level and fight through contact. It may be a bit of both if he had 4 long years at Bama and 4 years as a pro and his body is wearing down early.

Yet at the end of the day, there is SOO MUCH information about science and sports nutrition available. In my younger days I gained weight and after a few lazy fat months, could start running a ton and lose it all in 6 to 8 weeks. Not anymore in my 40s. I've learned so much about nutrition and what goes into my body, and after enough research and time and sticking to a workout and diet plan I took off 13-15 pounds gradually so it's not a fad but sustainable. I probably shed a lot more, but was putting on muscle while the fat came off.

It's sort of inexcusable that a professional athlete with many more resources can't do the same. Or it may be Eddie's body has worn down and even at his 2013 weight he can't move like that anymore.

It's kinda sad I liked Eddie a lot. Thankful though, the Packers moved on when they did.

[Ron Swanson]

I think Lacy always needed the extra weight to play his bruising style and run over people, but it also meant he was gonna have an extremely short shelf life, even for a RB. Just look at LenDale White. Had a great first 2-3 seasons like Lacy and then completely fell off the wagon with weight and motivation issues. Completely out of the league by the time he was 25 years old.

[Kerb Hohl]

I think Lacy always needed the extra weight to play his bruising style and run over people, but it also meant he was gonna have an extremely short shelf life, even for a RB. Just look at LenDale White. Had a great first 2-3 seasons like Lacy and then completely fell off the wagon with weight and motivation issues. Completely out of the league by the time he was 25 years old.

Speaking of which, this was good.

[dools644]

Detroit is scary. They have been a good team for several years now, including 2014 where they nearly won the division. If the Packers continue this trend of waiting until Week 11 to play football eventually it is going to bite them. I think the North is about 50/50 right now, I would not be the least bit surprised if the Lions take the division. Week 17 at Detroit has real potential to be a changing of the guard.

The stuff about them "being the Lions" is just sports babble. It's an entirely new collection of guys. They aren't bound by the color of their shirts.

[Kerb Hohl]

Detroit is scary. They have been a good team for several years now, including 2014 where they nearly won the division. If the Packers continue this trend of waiting until Week 11 to play football eventually it is going to bite them. I think the North is about 50/50 right now, I would not be the least bit surprised if the Lions take the division. Week 17 at Detroit has real potential to be a changing of the guard.

The stuff about them "being the Lions" is just sports babble. It's an entirely new collection of guys. They aren't bound by the color of their shirts.

Agree 100000% on the 2nd paragraph. The only reason it keeps working out as "well, they're the Lions" is that Stafford is, by definition, the 10th-ish best QB and as such can't win many of the big games. I don't care about the history of the franchise. Sometimes overarching management issues continue though the years, but I'm not counting on them to choke because, "they're the Lions." Look at what happened to the Cubs with a good team, lots of money, and good management.

On the first paragraph, I agree, though I wouldn't call it a "changing of the guard." Detroit is going to erode a bit over the next few years so I'd still buy the Packers 2018-2022 or however long Rodgers' career finishes out. That said, if they can draft well, it wouldn't shock me to see them win a few titles in the North.

[Ron Swanson]

Calling them the same ol' Lions can be a bit cliche, but until they actually start beating good football teams (that W/L stat against > .500 teams is still amazing), they're not convincing anyone. It's the exact same thing as Packers fans not believing in the defense until it proves otherwise. It's a legitimate concern rooted in both historical and recent precedent.

[Kerb Hohl]

Calling them the same ol' Lions can be a bit cliche, but until they actually start beating good football teams (that W/L stat against > .500 teams is still amazing), they're not convincing anyone. It's the exact same thing as Packers fans not believing in the defense until it proves otherwise. It's a legitimate concern rooted in both historical and recent precedent.

The Packers are only 4-3 in the last 7 games between the 2 and one of those involved a hail mary. Packer margin of victory in the 4 wins are 10, 4, 7, 7.

[Ron Swanson]

Calling them the same ol' Lions can be a bit cliche, but until they actually start beating good football teams (that W/L stat against > .500 teams is still amazing), they're not convincing anyone. It's the exact same thing as Packers fans not believing in the defense until it proves otherwise. It's a legitimate concern rooted in both historical and recent precedent.

The Packers are only 4-3 in the last 7 games between the 2 and one of those involved a hail mary. Packer margin of victory in the 4 wins are 10, 4, 7, 7.

Ok?

[Kerb Hohl]

Calling them the same ol' Lions can be a bit cliche, but until they actually start beating good football teams (that W/L stat against > .500 teams is still amazing), they're not convincing anyone. It's the exact same thing as Packers fans not believing in the defense until it proves otherwise. It's a legitimate concern rooted in both historical and recent precedent.

The Packers are only 4-3 in the last 7 games between the 2 and one of those involved a hail mary. Packer margin of victory in the 4 wins are 10, 4, 7, 7.

Ok?

So save for a miracle, the Lions are 4-3 against the Packers in recent years.

This article suggests that the Lions' defense has sucked (and Stafford is the #10ish guy instead of #1 like Rodgers, of course).

Rodgers isn't even great against winning teams due to a **** defense.

https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2017/7/18/15979628/matthew-stafford-record-vs-winning-teams-aaron-rodgers-drew-brees-tom-brady-matt-ryan

Point being - Stafford is at his best right now and their defense continues to get better. They could be "worse" than the Packers and win 11 games. The entire point of this is that the Packers can't sleepwalk through half of the season as they have several of the past few years. They could lose the division and be at the mercy of the Wild Card, which, you never know, could not be available at 9 or 10 wins.

[Ron Swanson]

"The NFL is a crap shoot" is a cliche that's taken way too literally. I don't think anyone's saying that the Packers can "sleep walk" through the division this year, or any year in the past 3 seasons for that matter. The best and worst teams tend to remain relatively consistent more than simple regular season W/L record would suggest.

But yes, the Lions have to prove consistency over a greater sample size and against actual quality opponents before people can assume anything, because we've seen this exact song and dance before (2011, 2014, 2016) where they faded down the stretch. It's a new team but there are plenty of remnants from last years' as well as the 2014 roster there. It's harder to turn around a culture of losing/underperforming than people think it is.

[Kerb Hohl]

"The NFL is a crap shoot" is a cliche that's taken way too literally. I don't think anyone's saying that the Packers can "sleep walk" through the division this year, or any year in the past 3 seasons for that matter. The best and worst teams tend to remain relatively consistent more than simple regular season W/L record would suggest.

But yes, the Lions have to prove consistency over a greater sample size and against actual quality opponents before people can assume anything, because we've seen this exact song and dance before (2011, 2014, 2016) where they faded down the stretch. It's a new team but there are plenty of remnants from last years' as well as the 2014 roster there. It's harder to turn around a culture of losing/underperforming than people think it is.

You just associated my statement with a cliche of "NFL is a crapshoot" which I did not say or mean at all.

Then you followed it up with a cliche of "culture of losing."

They're good enough to win 11 given this 2-0 headstart and it puts the Packers' playoff odds in jeopardy is all I'm saying. I'm not calling the Lions worldbeaters. They look to have built a solid team and the Packers have taken advantage of a lesser division probably 3 times in the post 2010 Super Bowl era now to sneak into the playoffs at 8-7-1 or 10-6 where we had to play the final game for the division.