Brewers acquire Neil Walker from Mets

[Kerb Hohl]

That's too rich for my blood. I'd love to overpay him for 2 years. 2/$35 because I think his base value for 4 years is a bit under the $15 million/year you've suggested in your 4/$60.

[coolhandluke121]

That's too rich for my blood. I'd love to overpay him for 2 years. 2/$35 because I think his base value for 4 years is a bit under the $15 million/year you've suggested in your 4/$60.

I agree but I think he gets more elsewhere. I think someone overpays in years to secure his services while he's still productive. With a buy-out like the one I suggested, it's about $19m per year for 3 years. The market always seems to work out that way for guys like him at that age and level of production. I still hate Villar but I would take a flyer on him recovering some value before I give Walker 3+ years.

I also prefer one-year deals in general, which probably means relievers and maybe even a guy like Sabathia. I want to leave cap space to have a puncher's chance at guys like Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Miller, and Kershaw. When you have a lot of solid young contributors on the cheap, there's no point to paying the good-but-not-great free agents because it's not even a guaranteed upgrade over what you already have at a fraction of the cost. But you can still make a case for signing superstars and aces.

Alex Avila, Neshek, Swarzak, and Sabathia probably all would be in a position to accept generous one-year deals. Non-elite relievers rarely get good average salaries on multi-year deals, Sabathia is old, and Avila still has to prove himself year to year despite having a great year right now.

[Kerb Hohl]

That's too rich for my blood. I'd love to overpay him for 2 years. 2/$35 because I think his base value for 4 years is a bit under the $15 million/year you've suggested in your 4/$60.

I agree but I think he gets more elsewhere. I think someone overpays in years to secure his services while he's still productive. With a buy-out like the one I suggested, it's about $19m per year for 3 years. The market always seems to work out that way for guys like him at that age and level of production. I still hate Villar but I would take a flyer on him recovering some value before I give Walker 3+ years.

I also prefer one-year deals in general, which probably means relievers and maybe even a guy like Sabathia. I want to leave cap space to have a puncher's chance at guys like Harper, Machado, Keuchel, Miller, and Kershaw. When you have a lot of solid young contributors on the cheap, there's no point to paying the good-but-not-great free agents because it's not even a guaranteed upgrade over what you already have at a fraction of the cost. But you can still make a case for signing superstars and aces.

Alex Avila, Neshek, Swarzak, and Sabathia probably all would be in a position to accept generous one-year deals. Non-elite relievers rarely get good average salaries on multi-year deals, Sabathia is old, and Avila still has to prove himself year to year despite having a great year right now.

I'd like to have a puncher's chance at some of those guys, but it probably doesn't make much sense. All of those guys are free agents when it comes time to pay most of our guys.

Now, maybe Anderson, Santana, and Arcia for instance all become guys that we don't want to/need to pay (also Nelson's effective career could be over) but then we obviously have bigger issues. Also, there's always the choice/luxury of having the next wave take over for some of those players.

The time to spend big $ is now. If it's a reliever or Neil Walker and it bleeds into a 3rd year, things should be fine.

We could definitely do stuff like trade Arcia or Anderson in 2 years and build the next wave but that is obviously not necessarily how Mark operates.

The one argument you could make if one of those elite players did become available to the Brewers is that they could sign him and worry about the rest later. You're running the risk of losing 3-4 contributors in 2021 or 2022ish, but it's possible that half of those guys became not worth it to you or you can deal them to replenish the farm with cheaper players anyways. They'll all be on arbitration 2020-2022 or so, so you are paying them about 1/2 to 2/3 of what they'll be getting once they get their free agent contract and you can afford to have a Harper or Machado (don't shoot the messenger, I don't think we're actually getting these guys) without sacrificing much in those seasons.

[coolhandluke121]

I would prefer to leave that possibility open instead of risking too many years for older guys like Walker who might barely be positive impact players by then. None of it is likely to happen but then you just stick to the current plan, which is working out great so far.A guy like Harper or Machado at their age would be worth the risk of losing/trading a couple Santana/Arcia types in their prime. Besides, Mark A would be loathe to lose that kind of talent for nothing, too, so I could see him going way over budget for a potentially great team. And if the cost is prohibitive, you could still have young guys coming up. No need to be too attached to the ones you've already got in the majors.

[coolhandluke121]

And if you don't get a Machado, which is obviously a long-shot, then you just sign some Neil Walker types to 3-year deals in winter 18-19 instead. It's not some huge missed opportunity if you let him walk this year. I think this offseason is one year too soon for deals like he's going to get. If they do want to spend money this year, go a little younger. Chatwood would be nice. Trade Thames to an AL team, move Shaw to 1b, and sign Moustakas if you are feeling really impulsive.

[Kerb Hohl]

Yeah, my assumption was still overpaying the hell out of Walker or somebody for just 2, maybe 3 years and I'm not even that huge of a fan of him.

Otherwise I pretty much agree with you.

[MickeyDavis]

Crew are just 14k under last years attendance total and still have 7 home games left. Seven games that will have very high numbers. It will end up being over 2.5 million. No one expected that going into the season. Attantasio has said they would bank the cash they are saving on payroll. So when the time is right there will be plenty of money to spend. Not Cubs/Yankees/Dodgers, etc... money but some good money.

But timing is important. I don't think this is the off season to spend.