Offensive distribution, will there be an odd man out?

[KGdaBom]

16 Towns
16 Butler
15 Wiggins
9 Teague
8 Crawford
6 Dieng
5 Gibson
4 Shabazz
4 Bjelica
4 Tyus
0 Aldrich

87 Total

What?? No Patton?

Forgot Patton. Don't know how much playing time he'll have here, though with his foot injury and all. I could see him getting more time in Iowa, tbh. For this exercise, add 0.5 fga for him.

I was just messing with you LOL.

[Klomp]

The simple answer here is.....everyone's shots will probably go down. Why?

The numbers for Towns and Wiggins went up after LaVine's injury last February, because the number of serious offensive threats dropped from 3 to 2. With adding another serious threat in Butler, I could see their numbers reverting closer to the pre-injury form.

Before the injury: Wiggins 18.0, Towns 17.7
After the injury: Wiggins 20.9, Towns 18.6

I don't see Butler's numbers going up from the 16.5 attempts he averaged in Chicago last year (his career high). LaVine averaged 15.1 attempts before his injury, which fits about in line with what I could see from Butler.

The biggest drop will be for Teague. His last four years in Atlanta he averaged 12-13 shot attempts per game, but now he's coming to a situation where Rubio averaged under 9 attempts per game last season.

[Crazy-Canuck]

I think Jimmy will drop his shot attempts to take on more of a facilitator role, but he will be the first option during crunch time.

Kats will be the 1st option for most of the game.
Wiggins and Butler will take turns preying on mismatches.

[Jammer]

The Wolves played at a decent pace last year, averaging 84.4 fga per game. Teague & company should maintain that pace, so an estimate of 84 shots per game might still work. Efficiency improves with better shot selection. Ideally there are always 3 scorers on the floor, with a slasher and pick setter. Two scorers behind the 3 point line with one in the post is optimum, and still leaves room for a pick setter to run pick and rolls with the slasher while having two 3 point shooters and a man in the post to pass to.

Wiggins, Crawford and Bazz will be the ones taking significantly less shots, but so should Gibson, Bjelica and Teague.

Typical Shot Attempt Average for the season based on 84 shots per game and 10 Man Rotation

16 Karl Towns (2 less than last year)
15 Wiggins (4.1 less than last year. Wiggins needs to become more EFFICIENT anyway. This is his chance to be selective)
13- 15 Jimmy Butler (1.5 to 3.5 less than last year, but he has a lot more help. Towns and Wiggins are more efficient, anyway)
9 Jeff Teague (2.1 less than last year, but he has a lot more help)
8 Gorgui Dieng(0.1 less than last year, about the same)
5 Jamal Crawford (5.6 less than last year, Thibodeau's biggest challenge)
5 Taj Gibson(2.8 less than last year, but he never was a shooter)
4 Tyus Jones (1 more than last year)
4 Shabazz Muhammad (3.7 less than last year, but he's got more supporters now). Can Thibs keep Bazz in Check?
3 Nemanja Bjelica (2.5 less than last year, but he doesn't have to be the guy anymore. Another guy Thibs has to put the damper on)

That is a fairly balanced offense, and should take some pressure off of Butler and Crawford in particular. Keeping the right balance in field goal attempts will be crucial to prevent the offense from disintegrating into a playground game, and allowing the offense to become more efficient and less predicatable.
Patton could end up taking Bjelica's minutes one year from now.

If Thibs can get the team to do that, I think that between 48 and 53 wins is doable, with an expected total of 50 or 51 wins.

[shrink]

FGA's is what made me question the signing of Crawford. His game is not really what MIN needs, but maybe his off the court professionalism is.

This signing led me to believe Thibs spent the money on Crawford to show KAT and Wiggins how to be a professional and have a long career. From there. it showed me that MIN's goal wasn't necessarily to win every game he could this year, but to invest in KAT and Wiggins longterm, with such signings as Taj.

[Grits n Gravy]

FGA's is what made me question the signing of Crawford. His game is not really what MIN needs, but maybe his off the court professionalism is.

This signing led me to believe Thibs spent the money on Crawford to show KAT and Wiggins how to be a professional and have a long career. From there. it showed me that MIN's goal wasn't necessarily to win every game he could this year, but to invest in KAT and Wiggins longterm, with such signings as Taj.

I wonder if we had retained Bazz(assume at the minimum) on the first day of free agency, that Crawford would have still been pursued as a potential signing. While he still may have been for the off court reasons you mentioned, Bazz can be a scorer off the bench which somewhat diminishes the need for the things Crawford brings. Just a thought.

[Jammer]

FGA's is what made me question the signing of Crawford. His game is not really what MIN needs, but maybe his off the court professionalism is.

This signing led me to believe Thibs spent the money on Crawford to show KAT and Wiggins how to be a professional and have a long career. From there. it showed me that MIN's goal wasn't necessarily to win every game he could this year, but to invest in KAT and Wiggins longterm, with such signings as Taj.

I wonder if we had retained Bazz(assume at the minimum) on the first day of free agency, that Crawford would have still been pursued as a potential signing. While he still may have been for the off court reasons you mentioned, Bazz can be a scorer off the bench which somewhat diminishes the need for the things Crawford brings. Just a thought.

Shabazz, to me, is a backup SF, although last year there were occasions that the Wolves used him as a stretch PF. He just never looked like a "guard" to me on offense or defense.

I remember when Crawford was coming out of Michigan, how his schoolmates on chatboards were stressing to people that Crawford is "just an SG", and not a PG. He can be a spot PG, but in reality, especially at this point in his career, he is a backup SG, although with the current team he's also probably the 3rd PG until another one comes on board.

[Klomp]

The team needs more bench production. A big reason our bench has been so lackluster is there's been no one to take pressure of of Muhammad. Had Crawford simply replaced Muhammad, I wouldn't have seen it as much of a bench upgrade this summer, but having both will be nice.

And really, I don't believe Muhammad is a suitable 6th man on a playoff/contending team. Crawford has shown he is. I think that's key as we try to make this jump as a franchise.

[Crazy-Canuck]

FGA's is what made me question the signing of Crawford. His game is not really what MIN needs, but maybe his off the court professionalism is.

This signing led me to believe Thibs spent the money on Crawford to show KAT and Wiggins how to be a professional and have a long career. From there. it showed me that MIN's goal wasn't necessarily to win every game he could this year, but to invest in KAT and Wiggins longterm, with such signings as Taj.

I wonder if we had retained Bazz(assume at the minimum) on the first day of free agency, that Crawford would have still been pursued as a potential signing. While he still may have been for the off court reasons you mentioned, Bazz can be a scorer off the bench which somewhat diminishes the need for the things Crawford brings. Just a thought.

Both are scorers off the bench, but they aren't the same. Last year we struggled because we didn't have any shot creators outside of Wiggins ( I don't count Kat because it's much harder for a post player with the way the game is these days). Lavine and bazz both needed to get set up. You couldn't just give them the ball and tell them to manufacture the tough points.

Crawford is a shot creator. Bazz and others can play off him. Crawford can also get something when the offense breaks down. I think our bench really struggled in half court sets, especially with added defensive pressure in the second half.

We just couldn't break people with Rubio or Wiggins on the bench.

[Vindicater]

Wiggins will score less but be a better player for it.

[Narf]

The team needs more bench production. A big reason our bench has been so lackluster is there's been no one to take pressure of of Muhammad. Had Crawford simply replaced Muhammad, I wouldn't have seen it as much of a bench upgrade this summer, but having both will be nice.

And really, I don't believe Muhammad is a suitable 6th man on a playoff/contending team. Crawford has shown he is. I think that's key as we try to make this jump as a franchise.

Taj pushing Dieng to the bench is a much bigger upgrade IMHO. I believe Jones improving will end up being a pretty significant upgrade as well.

[Klomp]

The team needs more bench production. A big reason our bench has been so lackluster is there's been no one to take pressure of of Muhammad. Had Crawford simply replaced Muhammad, I wouldn't have seen it as much of a bench upgrade this summer, but having both will be nice.

And really, I don't believe Muhammad is a suitable 6th man on a playoff/contending team. Crawford has shown he is. I think that's key as we try to make this jump as a franchise.

Taj pushing Dieng to the bench is a much bigger upgrade IMHO. I believe Jones improving will end up being a pretty significant upgrade as well.

That won't really help the scoring production, but yes I would argue that the PF addition could give the bigger boost to the team as a whole.

[AirP.]

Buter's FGA will drop because he won't be counted on to carry the team(like a 40 point half he did over a year ago) and Wiggins' FGA will drop now has way better offensive teammates.

If Town's FGA doesn't stay the same or go up there's a real problem. Post All-Star game Towns was #1 in the NBA at TS% with players of 15 FGA or higher but for the season he was 6# overall only behind KD, Curry, LeBron, IT and Lowery. In the same list Butler was 14th right in front of Lillard, McCollum, and K.Irving while Wiggins was 33rd right in front of Schroder, Booker, Rose and D.Wade. Just look at it this way, dropping down Towns FGA would basically be like telling Cleveland telling LeBron, GS telling KD or Curry hey, drop down your FGA, we have other talent on this team that can score, just not nearly as efficient as you.

Although I expect Teague and Butler to initiate the offense I'd expect Towns will be the focal point for scoring. Although Butler will get the ball more then Wiggins, Butler actually makes plays for others which will give him many more assists but also drop down his FGA to near Wiggins' level.

By FGA rank(with gaps)...
1. Towns

2. Butler
3. Wiggins

4. Teague
5. Crawford
6. Shabazz

7. Brooks(if back PG)

And... it really doesn't matter after that. Dieng, Gibson, and Tyrus will take what the defense gives them.

Towns... it's like people don't get how incredibly talented offensively he is because he's not as athletic as Wiggins, Towns is a very special offensive player already and has the ability to get even better. This simple fact might be why Minnesota went all in to put talent around Towns, get him some playoff experience and possibly have enough to challenge for a title. I wouldn't be surprised if Towns' name is started to be mentioned in the MVP race this next season.

[KGdaBom]

The team needs more bench production. A big reason our bench has been so lackluster is there's been no one to take pressure of of Muhammad. Had Crawford simply replaced Muhammad, I wouldn't have seen it as much of a bench upgrade this summer, but having both will be nice.

And really, I don't believe Muhammad is a suitable 6th man on a playoff/contending team. Crawford has shown he is. I think that's key as we try to make this jump as a franchise.

Taj pushing Dieng to the bench is a much bigger upgrade IMHO. I believe Jones improving will end up being a pretty significant upgrade as well.

I really seriously doubt that Taj will push Dieng to the bench and if he did that would be a downgrade not an upgrade.

[Klomp]

I really seriously doubt that Taj will push Dieng to the bench and if he did that would be a downgrade not an upgrade.

I disagree on both

[AirP.]

The team needs more bench production. A big reason our bench has been so lackluster is there's been no one to take pressure of of Muhammad. Had Crawford simply replaced Muhammad, I wouldn't have seen it as much of a bench upgrade this summer, but having both will be nice.

And really, I don't believe Muhammad is a suitable 6th man on a playoff/contending team. Crawford has shown he is. I think that's key as we try to make this jump as a franchise.

Taj pushing Dieng to the bench is a much bigger upgrade IMHO. I believe Jones improving will end up being a pretty significant upgrade as well.

I really seriously doubt that Taj will push Dieng to the bench and if he did that would be a downgrade not an upgrade.

I don't think Taj will start but I think he'll end games. We can argue who is better but the offense isn't needed with Towns, Butler, Wiggins and Teague on the floor, you want some mobile rim protection and I see Taj better then Dieng in that department. Hopefully in 3 years Patton develops into a great fit to start next to Towns in the frontcourt.

[KGdaBom]

I really seriously doubt that Taj will push Dieng to the bench and if he did that would be a downgrade not an upgrade.

I disagree on both

Yep we very much disagree on this. I think Gorgui is a very superior player to Taj.

[Narf]

I really seriously doubt that Taj will push Dieng to the bench and if he did that would be a downgrade not an upgrade.

I disagree on both

Yep we very much disagree on this. I think Gorgui is a very superior player to Taj.

I think Taj will start and Dieng will play more minutes. Gibson is a better fit with our starting lineup for his defense (especially leadership/communication).

Taj is the first sub out, and when Towns subs out Dieng is the C and should be very good vs backups in the post.

Dieng has more value on the bench for us, Gibson has more value starting.

[Klomp]

I think Taj will start and Dieng will play more minutes. Gibson is a better fit with our starting lineup for his defense (especially leadership/communication).

Taj is the first sub out, and when Towns subs out Dieng is the C and should be very good vs backups in the post.

Dieng has more value on the bench for us, Gibson has more value starting.

This is where I'm at, as well.

[shangrila]

FGA's is what made me question the signing of Crawford. His game is not really what MIN needs, but maybe his off the court professionalism is.

This signing led me to believe Thibs spent the money on Crawford to show KAT and Wiggins how to be a professional and have a long career. From there. it showed me that MIN's goal wasn't necessarily to win every game he could this year, but to invest in KAT and Wiggins longterm, with such signings as Taj.

I wonder if we had retained Bazz(assume at the minimum) on the first day of free agency, that Crawford would have still been pursued as a potential signing. While he still may have been for the off court reasons you mentioned, Bazz can be a scorer off the bench which somewhat diminishes the need for the things Crawford brings. Just a thought.

Crawford is a creator whereas Bazz is a finisher. The fact that they both score a lot doesn't mean they do so in the same ways.