twolves97 wrote:For those picking Howard and people who are longevity guys T-Mac had an 8 year prime and 15 years total it's not great but it's solid. Howard voters why pick Howard when he has same longevity and lower peak with horrid intangibles?
Where longevity is concerned, I've more than once in this project stated it as "longevity/durability/consistency" (as they're all kinda related); I've also used the term "meaningful longevity". As such, when I was advocating for Pierce, you'll note I made a point of stating he has 17 seasons as an above average player......I didn't make mention of his 19 seasons played (except, iirc, to once note that his final two seasons were utterly meaningless in the grand scheme of things). Similarly for Howard (in post #2 itt), I noted how he's been an above average player all 13 of his seasons; more on that below.
wrt TMac, I disagree about him having eight prime years. I would say seven ('01-'07); imo there's too much decline in '08 to count that: his ppg fell by 3 pts from the previous year while his shooting efficiency hit the lowest it had ever been at that point in his career. Here are McGrady's [avg of '01-'07/single-season lowest in '01-'07] for the rate metrics: PER 25.0/21.9, WS/48 .183/.112, BPM +6.5/+4.8. For comparison, here are his rate metrics for '08: PER 18.4, .115 WS/48, +2.4 BPM.
As you can see, that's a heck of a decline. And I doubt you were counting '00 as part of his prime: though his rate metrics are a little better than they were in '08, they're still significantly below his '01-'07 standard
and he wasn't playing star-level minutes that season (31.2 mpg); his raw averages that year were 15.4/6.3/3.3.......that's not what we think of when we think of prime TMac.
At any rate, if we are going to be liberal enough in our definition to include '08 as part of his prime, then it would only be fair to say that Dwight had a NINE-year prime ('06-'14) accounting for 686 rs games (vs 8 years and 557 rs games for TMac).
But again, I would suggest TMac's prime was seven years (491 rs games), and Howard's was probably six years ('07-'12, 457 rs games); note the very similar number of games for Howard, despite one less season, because McGrady so frequently would miss relevant time. And Howard had more other seasons than McGrady that were relatively
close to "prime-level".
For their entire careers, it's worth noting that McGrady's tendency toward injury was somewhat consistent: despite playing two more seasons than Howard, he's got 938 rs games vs 954 for Howard.
And then there's that consideration of "meaningful" longevity. As I'd noted, Howard has been an above average player his entire career (13 years). His worst statistical season is likely his rookie year, in which he was a 17.2 PER, .131 WS/48, +1.0 BPM player in 32.6 mpg==>still clearly above average.
McGrady, otoh, was a clearly
below average player in EACH of his final THREE seasons, and basically average (at best) in his rookie year, too. So he actually only has 11 seasons as a clearly above average player.
In summary, while it's not a huge gap, I actually consider Dwight Howard to have the edge in the spectrum of longevity/durability/consistency.
I agree McGrady peaked higher; however, his '03 season is such an outlier for him that I actually think Howard has at least two (and possibly
three) seasons better than McGrady's 2nd-best year.
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