Moderators: Duke4life831, Marcus
reanimator wrote:
KK „Šibenka“: Petrović 40, Zečević, Žurić, Ljubojević 10,Petani, Đurić 4, Dajmanić, Macura 13, Marelja 2, Šarić 8, Jarić 4.
KK „Bosna“ – : Vučević 14, Đurić, Benaček 14, Pajović, Primorac, Radovanović 13, Zrno 1, Varajić 18, Mutapčić, Bilalović, Hadžić 22, Mitrović.
reanimator wrote:Derento wrote:http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/20757282/should-luka-doncic-early-favorite-no-1-pick-2018-nba-draft
Pelton's projections have Doncic as the models best International prospect in the Database & second overall behind Anthony Davis.We'll know a lot more about the other candidates for the No. 1 pick once they've set foot on the floor in college, but it's going to be difficult for DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III and Michael Porter Jr. to match Doncic's statistical projection. Only one player in my college database ever has. Here's how Doncic's 2018 projection compares to the top prospects since 2005:
1. Says Doncic would struggle in the NBA to score efficiently because of his 3 pt % but expects it to rise as he speeds his release and gains better shot selection. I've said this before and agree.
2. Compares him CURRENTLY (as in what he can contribute today) from a statistical profile not stylistic to Jeremy Lamb despite being 7 years younger.
3. Says there isn't a single player in the 2017 or 2018 draft class who could make an impact in FIBA, Euroleague, or ACB play at his age. I disagree. I think there are multiple players who could if given the minutes and similar role.
4. Admits European bigmen find greater success than wings. I've been saying this for months. They think its purely because size is a premium but I say perimeter players struggle with the transition against faster/quicker/longer athletes which is mitigated for bigs.
5. Thinks he should start off as #1. There statistical model places him with stars and undersized bigmen roleplayers. Feel incredibly optimistic about his upside and think he is the greatest Euro prospect ever.
Doncic showed this year, playing against Nba players like Rubio, Saric, Bogdanovic, Portzingis, Gasol brothers, Fournier...that can play in Nba at this moment. Others have to show what can they do in NCAA and only then we can start to discuss what their future in Nba could be. Fairytales how skills and feeling for the game can be learned, are almost everytime only fairytales. On the other hand there wasn’t any player from Europe, who didn’t get much improved body in Nba.
Bob8 wrote:Fairytales how skills and feeling for the game can be learned, are almost everytime only fairytales.
Should Luka Doncic be the early favorite for the No. 1 pick? - 2018 NBA draft
by Kevin Pelton on 2017-09-28 09:22:00 UTC (original: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/20757282/should-luka-doncic-early-favorite-no-1-pick-2018-nba-draft)
How does Luka Doncic's prodigious production at age 18 project the 2018 prospect will perform in the NBA?
As Insider's Mike Schmitz detailed earlier this week, Doncic's role in helping lead Slovenia to an unlikely gold medal in this month's Eurobasket championships further added to his résumé as the most accomplished prospect in next year's draft. Even before that, however, Doncic's performance for Real Madrid in Euroleague and Spanish ACB play marked him as an elite prospect
Is he the best European prospect ever? And should he be considered the early leader for the No. 1 pick over prospects such as Michael Porter Jr. and Marvin Bagley III? Let's take a look.
How Doncic projects to the NBA
Kevin Pelton: During 2016-17, when he turned 18 midway through the season, my translations of ACB statistics to their NBA equivalent suggest Doncic played at nearly an average NBA level. His player win percentage (the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player metric, akin to PER) was .488 -- not far from the average of .500.
Doncic was even better against the stiff competition in Euroleague play, where his translated .595 player win percentage was the best among any regular. New LA Clippers guard and international veteran Milos Teodosic ranked second among that group at .551.
Factoring in both those performances, plus Doncic's more limited minutes in previous seasons, his translated statistics suggest Doncic would already be an excellent playmaker for a wing as well as a strong rebounder for a shooting guard. However, Doncic probably would struggle to score efficiently because of his middling 3-point shooting; he shot just 33.3 percent from the shorter FIBA 3-point line across all competitions.
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Overall, my translations show Doncic's 2016-17 level of play as relatively similar to Charlotte Hornets reserve Jeremy Lamb. (Because of his combination of skills, Doncic's performance isn't all that similar to any current NBA player.) That doesn't sound very impressive until you consider that Doncic is nearly seven years younger than Lamb.
How well do those translated statistics compare to the scouting consensus on Doncic's current level of play?
Jonathan Givony: The scouting consensus is still coming together at this stage for Doncic, and I expect that to be an ongoing process all season long leading up to draft night. Doncic is a unique prospect, pretty much unprecedented, as Schmitz laid out on Monday, with how productive he has been at such an incredibly young age.
There are different schools of thought from NBA executives about the extent of Doncic's long-term upside, but I haven't heard too many people question his jump shot as one of the reasons for that. While it's true he has hit only 33 percent of his career 392 3-point attempts, Doncic has a beautiful stroke both with his feet set and off the dribble, along with deep range, and I believe that he will find a way to quicken his release and get his shot off more effectively at his size as his career moves along. Doncic is a big time shot-maker already, which is what you hope to see from a guy his age at this level of competition. The efficiency will come in time, I believe.
The fact that just about half of Doncic's field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc for his career, and his near-80 percent free throw shooting, leaves a lot of room for optimism when combined with his excellent mechanics and touch. If anything, Doncic's overconfidence in his jump shot is what has led to his pedestrian 3-point percentages. Doncic is such a good shooter, he feels he can pull up for Stephen Curry-type 3s at any moment, something defenses are often happy to concede, instead of having him probe with his dribble. I think as Doncic's career moves forward, he will find a better balance for when to take these types of shots, and how to get them off more cleanly.
Regarding the rebounding and playmaking, there's no question it tells a significant story. Doncic's career 9.3 rebounds per 40 minutes is absolutely elite for a guy who sees most of his minutes at either guard spot. While he's not incredibly long relative to his height, nor is he overwhelmingly explosive, Doncic's feel for the game allows him to anticipate the ball coming off the rim, and his strong frame, and impressive toughness helps do the rest. That's one of the things scouts love the most about Doncic -- his versatility, which should allow him to play anywhere from 1-4 in the NBA, and gives coaches great flexibility with lineup configurations.
As you touched on, and we all saw at Eurobasket, Doncic is an elite passer who is at his best with the ball in his hands. He has no problem bringing the ball up the court, getting a team into its offense, and is one of the most advanced pick-and-roll players you'll ever see relative to his age. Hopefully, whoever drafts Doncic does so with the intention of playing him on the ball as much as possible, even though there are some challenges he'll have to overcome to do so full time in the NBA.
How Doncic compares to past European prospects
Pelton: One question worth exploring with Doncic is whether he's the best prospect ever from Europe. If he had been eligible for the 2017 draft, he would have had the highest WARP projection on record for a European prospect. I have data on them back through 2006, when Andrea Bargnani was drafted No. 1 overall, and here's that list.
Top European prospects by projected WARP
Name Year Pick Age Win% WARP
Luka Doncic 2018 - 18.1 .537 5.2
Ricky Rubio 2009 5 18.5 .480 3.7
Dragan Bender 2016 4 18.4 .467 3.4
Clint Capela 2014 25 19.9 .497 3.4
Jusuf Nurkic 2014 16 19.7 .490 3.3
Kristaps Porzingis 2015 4 19.7 .487 3.2
Nikola Jokic 2014 41 19.2 .468 3.1
Danilo Gallinari 2008 6 19.7 .473 2.9
Nikola Mirotic 2011 23 20.2 .482 2.9
Rudy Fernandez 2007 24 22.0 .521 2.9
Andrea Bargnani 2006 1 20.5 .485 2.8
Since 2006
Adding a year of development to Doncic's translated statistics to project how he'd do in the NBA next season gives him the best projected player win percentage of any European prospect for whom I have data, despite the fact that he's also younger than any of these prospects at the time they were drafted. As a result, while we don't have data for earlier prospects like Dirk Nowitzki, I'm comfortable saying Doncic is the best European prospect ever. His main competition for that title is Ricky Rubio, who was even more effective than Doncic in the ACB at younger ages but never really developed beyond that point.
Would you agree that Doncic is the best European prospect we've seen? And what does it mean that besides him and Rubio, the top players on the list are almost exclusively big men?
Givony: I do agree that Doncic is the best European prospect we've seen, at least in terms of productivity and what he has accomplished to this stage of his career. There simply never has been anyone like him as far as I know. He's certainly the best one I've seen since I started scouting the NBA draft in 2004. I was out in Spain a few times watching Rubio through the years, and I believe what Doncic has done in FIBA, Euroleague and ACB play already far exceeds what Rubio accomplished at the same age. It was fascinating for me to see both of them on the court at the same time in the Eurobasket semifinals last week, considering the amount of hype they shared as Euro phenoms, and I thought Doncic totally outplayed him, even though he was 8½ years younger than him.
I never saw Nowitzki when he was in the draft, but one guy I did study extensively (on two separate trips to Europe), and who might end up being one of the best European players ever, was Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis was almost the same age as Doncic is now back when we first scouted him, and it's incredible to compare the differences in the level of competition they are at and their level of polish. I distinctly remember NBA scouts telling me they would never consider drafting Giannis because he wasn't able to dominate even at an incredibly poor level of competition like the Greek 2nd division (which is almost a semi-pro league in terms of salaries and conditions), and to contrast that with Doncic nearly averaging a triple-double (15.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists) on a per-40 basis in the Euroleague as a 17/18-year old is simply astounding.
Doncic obviously doesn't have anywhere near the same physical tools as Giannis, but I really don't think there's a single player in this draft class (or 2017 for that matter) who could step on the court and make the type of impact he has in FIBA, Euroleague or ACB play at that age. Now that we've been able to see him do it against legitimate NBA players in their prime, like Kristaps Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Evan Fournier, Pau Gasol, Rubio and others, it really eliminates a lot of the "mystery" involved in translating his production from Europe to the NBA.
Regarding your question about why most of the top projected Europeans according to WARP are bigs, I think it's the same answer as to why the best European players in the NBA are mostly bigs. It's very hard to make the NBA from outside the U.S. without being really tall (and actually really skilled). I did a quick search through my database for the most productive players born outside of North America last year according to PER, and found that among the top 18, only one of them (Eurobasket MVP and Doncic's teammate/mentor Goran Dragic) is under 6-9.
European Talent Trending Toward Bigs
PLAYER NATIONALITY HT MPG PER EWA
Nikola Jokic Serbia 6'11 27.9 26.1 15.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Greece 6'11 35.9 25.7 22.8
Joel Embiid Cameroon 7'2 25.4 24 5.1
Enes Kanter Turkey 6'11 20.5 23.4 9.9
Rudy Gobert France 7'2 33.2 23 18.1
Clint Capela Switzerland 6'11 24.2 21.4 9.6
Jusuf Nurkic Bosnia 6'11 28.6 20.8 3
Marc Gasol Spain 7'1 34.6 20.1 12.7
Goran Dragic Slovenia 6'4 33.7 19.8 11
Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania 6'11 25.5 19.7 10.2
Pau Gasol Spain 7'2 24.9 19.3 8.5
Nene Hilario Brazil 6'10 17.9 19.2 5.6
Nikola Vucevic Montenegro 7'2 28.8 19.1 8.9
Wily Hernangomez Spain 6'11 18.4 18.9 5.3
Kristaps Porzingis Latvia 7'3 32.8 17.5 7.2
Danilo Gallinari Italy 6'9 33.9 17.4 7
Serge Ibaka Congo 6'10 30.5 17.4 5.6
Dirk Nowitzki Germany 6'11 26.4 16.9 4.3
It's actually pretty ridiculous to me how many starting NBA frontcourt players these days were born outside of the U.S. It seems to be so much more rare to make it as a guard or a wing than as a forward or big, which is going to make for some interesting conversations come draft time regarding Doncic.
Will NBA teams look at him as more of a guard, which offensively there's no question he's best suited for, or as a wing -- where he might be better equipped defensively? That probably doesn't mean as much in today's NBA, but fit is important, and you'll want to put him in the right role and surround him with the right type of guys to maximize his potential.
How Doncic compares to other No. 1 candidates
Givony: Kevin, when we are talking about a potential No. 1 pick like Doncic, does it make sense for NBA teams to think about how many other non-North American wing players like him went No. 1? Or even the fact that it's just rare in general to take a wing No. 1? Has the NBA game evolved enough to the point that players like Doncic should be considered at the top? We're seeing that the market for big men has been severely diminished in free agency, so should teams start drafting accordingly? Will that help Doncic's stock?
Pelton: Good questions. I think the biggest question about Doncic's statistical projections is how they'll translate against NBA-caliber athleticism. Because so much more frontcourt talent has come from Europe, we've had a better idea of how big men would translate to the NBA than wings like Doncic. So I can understand some skepticism.
Setting aside that concern, I wouldn't hesitate to take a wing No. 1, particularly one as comfortable with the ball in his hands as Doncic. Including Antetokounmpo, four of the top 11 players in wins based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) last season were wings, so it's clear that the best wings can have as much impact as the best big men or point guards.
We'll know a lot more about the other candidates for the No. 1 pick once they've set foot on the floor in college, but it's going to be difficult for DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III and Michael Porter Jr. to match Doncic's statistical projection. Only one player in my college database ever has. Here's how Doncic's 2018 projection compares to the top prospects since 2005:
How Doncic Compares To Earlier Prospects
Name Year Pick Age Win% WARP
Anthony Davis 2012 1 19.1 .570 5.5
Luka Doncic 2018 - 18.1 .537 5.2
Kenneth Faried 2011 22 21.4 .604 5.1
DeJuan Blair 2009 37 20.0 .569 5.0
Kevin Love 2008 5 19.6 .543 4.6
James Harden 2009 3 19.7 .528 4.2
Kyrie Irving 2011 1 19.1 .514 4.2
Blake Griffin 2009 1 20.1 .535 4.2
DeMarcus Cousins 2010 5 19.7 .523 4.1
Stephen Curry 2009 7 21.1 .544 3.9
Kristaps Porzingis Latvia 7'3 32.8 17.5 7.2
Danilo Gallinari Italy 6'9 33.9 17.4 7
Serge Ibaka Congo 6'10 30.5 17.4 5.6
Dirk Nowitzki Germany 6'11 26.4 16.9 4.3
Outside of the undersized big men (Blair and Faried, both drafted lower), a WARP projection better than 4.0 has generally been a guarantee of stardom. So should Doncic start the year No. 1 on teams' boards? And what must the college prospects show as freshmen to match what Doncic has already done?
Givony: Doncic should start the year at No. 1 on our board, that much is clear. I think he proved and "earned" that over the course of the Eurobasket, after a somewhat disappointing Euroleague Final Four in May. As far as the league consensus, every team will see it different I'm sure. A few of them actually might not have scouted him much at all still, certainly not if we're talking about the highest level decision-makers in their organization.
I don't think all that many NBA general managers have scouted Michael Porter, DeAndre Ayton or Mohamad Bamba enough to be able to comfortably say yet who they would definitively take in June. I can say with a high degree of confidence that zero NBA GMs or high-level executives have ever watched Marvin Bagley play in person, since he simply hasn't played in any events that they were allowed to scout due to his late decision to skip his senior year of high school. So I do believe that things are very much wide open at this stage.
In that regard, the draft is still a bit of a blank slate for most NBA teams, but they will make up ground very quickly starting in early October when NCAA practices officially begin, followed by the pro days, the big preseason tournaments in November, the conference schedule and then the long pre-draft process that will have a huge say in how things turn out. And that's where international prospects are at somewhat of a disadvantage.
Looking at the list I posted above of the 18 most productive international players in the NBA, what's the common thread? Pretty much every single one of them was picked too low in their individual draft. Some 20, 30 or 40 spots too low. With as small as the world has become, and even though we have more film and information at our fingertips than ever, I still believe that international players are at a disadvantage in the NBA draft process compared with their NCAA peers.
There is simply a comfort level and a familiarity for NBA teams in scouting college players that internationals don't enjoy. They get to work them out against one another in June. They can interview them and have them conduct personality assessments. There are no buyouts. It's not as complicated to get their medical information. The background intel is cleaner and more consistent. They can go watch them practice whenever they please in-season (forget about trying to ask Real Madrid to come in and watch a practice ...). Most NBA execs will get over to Europe once or twice, and what if you happen to fall on one or two bad games? Doncic's season probably won't be over until a few days before the NBA draft. These are mostly superficial things that really shouldn't matter that much in the grand scheme of things, but they add up.
That's before we even get into the question marks about Doncic's game. Can he be a go-to scorer in the NBA? Is he the type of guy you can throw the ball to as the shot clock runs down and ask him to go get a bucket? We should get a much better answer to those questions as the season progresses. That wasn't really his role for Real Madrid last year (understandably), but with Sergio Llull suffering a torn ACL last month, they probably will ask him to become a much more dominant offensive player.
I think one of the biggest hurdles Doncic might face is since he has set the bar so incredibly high for himself already, simply maintaining his level of play from last year, with an increase in minutes, will be a challenge in its own right. Will scouts consider that a disappointment? You already hear some teams whispering that they don't know exactly the extent of where his upside lies, because he's already so physically mature, and so polished. I don't buy that personally, but he's probably going to have to show another gear to maintain his momentum, and that's a big ask considering what he already has demonstrated.
As you alluded to, it's not just going to depend on him. This is a talented draft class with some really interesting college players jockeying for the top spots. I'm not exactly sure what any of them have to show precisely, because we've seen all kinds of guys go No. 1 in the past few years. Some of them didn't have much of an impact on the win column in college, like Ben Simmons or Markelle Fultz, so it's tough for me to say that Michael Porter definitively has to lead Missouri to the NCAA tournament to go No. 1. Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 10 points for Kentucky and went No. 1. Could Mohamed Bamba or DeAndre Ayton do the same? Anthony Bennett had a terrible pre-draft process and ended up there. Kyrie Irving played only 11 college games. There isn't always much rhyme or reason to the NBA draft as we've found.
The next nine months are going to be very entertaining, and we're all looking forward to seeing how it plays out. I would recommend to fans following along to approach it with an open mind.
Is he the type of guy you can throw the ball to as the shot clock runs down and ask him to go get a bucket? ... That wasn't really his role for Real Madrid last year (understandably),...
burek3 wrote:Is he the type of guy you can throw the ball to as the shot clock runs down and ask him to go get a bucket? ... That wasn't really his role for Real Madrid last year (understandably),...
Hm. But he DID get important buckets in last season. The most 2 memorable being vs. Zalgiris:
[/youtube]
Bob8 wrote:
3. You can disagree and believe whatever you want. But the fact is Doncic is doing things that anyone before couldn’t. Let’s look to Ntilikina, he couldn’t do this in the 3rd tier competition in Europe and he even didn’t make in the French NT, which Slovenia destroyed by 20 in Eurobasket.
reanimator wrote:Bob8 wrote:
3. You can disagree and believe whatever you want. But the fact is Doncic is doing things that anyone before couldn’t. Let’s look to Ntilikina, he couldn’t do this in the 3rd tier competition in Europe and he even didn’t make in the French NT, which Slovenia destroyed by 20 in Eurobasket.
"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.
And Ricky Rubio was doing things in Europe that other Euro prospects who turned out way better than him couldn't do so what is the significance of that?
What’s the point to even mention Rubio? Doncic proved in Eurobasket that he’s already better than him, and he did it in the semis. Rubio could never shoot, so I guess this only proves skills can’t be teach. And if I’m not mistaken there’re several players in 2018 draft class that can’t shoot too. Maybe you should compare Rubio to them? SportsGuy8 wrote:Bob8 wrote:Fairytales how skills and feeling for the game can be learned, are almost everytime only fairytales.
I've been saying this for years. Most busts, from both Europe and the US, happen because scouts mainly look at athletic abilities and expect that since a player is still young, he's going to one day go EUREKA, get it, and suddenly know how to play the game.
That almost never happens. The rare exceptions are the bigs who started playing basketball late in their teens. For everyone else it's true that if you're not a fundamentally sound player with at least a decent bball-IQ in your late-teens, you're never going to become one.
Bob8 wrote:reanimator wrote:Bob8 wrote:
3. You can disagree and believe whatever you want. But the fact is Doncic is doing things that anyone before couldn’t. Let’s look to Ntilikina, he couldn’t do this in the 3rd tier competition in Europe and he even didn’t make in the French NT, which Slovenia destroyed by 20 in Eurobasket.
"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.
And Ricky Rubio was doing things in Europe that other Euro prospects who turned out way better than him couldn't do so what is the significance of that?
My point is he’s the only one who has already done anything. But it looks to me you believe more what Beagley, Porter and others maybe will do someday. It’s nothing wrong with believing, but when we talk about Doncic, it’s only about what he’s doing now. Maybe you should believe he can improve too?
Novocaine wrote:SportsGuy8 wrote:Bob8 wrote:Fairytales how skills and feeling for the game can be learned, are almost everytime only fairytales.
I've been saying this for years. Most busts, from both Europe and the US, happen because scouts mainly look at athletic abilities and expect that since a player is still young, he's going to one day go EUREKA, get it, and suddenly know how to play the game.
That almost never happens. The rare exceptions are the bigs who started playing basketball late in their teens. For everyone else it's true that if you're not a fundamentally sound player with at least a decent bball-IQ in your late-teens, you're never going to become one.
Well, there's this guy from some decades ago who had that reputation even into his 20s - a super-athletic ball-hog who'd get by his athletic ability and had little polish and skill to his game and, above all, didn't know how to win and how to play the right way. A selfish low IQ player who would take almost 30 shots per game, wasn't a team player, coudln't even shoot 20% from distance and would just jump over people to dunk stuff.
He ended up doing alright in the NBA though - he's the consensus best player in the history of the game, or at least was for a couple of decades.
I'm sure one could come up with a few other examples - say, the current MVP.
I understand selective memory phenomenons, but that take it to a whole new level. And of course athletic guys are overrepresented among busts - they're way overrepresented among high draft picks, which means they're overrepresented among guys with high expectations that can fall into the "bust" category. It's a consequence of the fact that Jordan was uber-athletic and Westbrook is uber-athletic and LeBron is uber-athletic and so on.
reanimator wrote:Bob8 wrote:
3. You can disagree and believe whatever you want. But the fact is Doncic is doing things that anyone before couldn’t. Let’s look to Ntilikina, he couldn’t do this in the 3rd tier competition in Europe and he even didn’t make in the French NT, which Slovenia destroyed by 20 in Eurobasket.
"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.
Bob8 wrote:Novocaine wrote:SportsGuy8 wrote:I've been saying this for years. Most busts, from both Europe and the US, happen because scouts mainly look at athletic abilities and expect that since a player is still young, he's going to one day go EUREKA, get it, and suddenly know how to play the game.
That almost never happens. The rare exceptions are the bigs who started playing basketball late in their teens. For everyone else it's true that if you're not a fundamentally sound player with at least a decent bball-IQ in your late-teens, you're never going to become one.
Well, there's this guy from some decades ago who had that reputation even into his 20s - a super-athletic ball-hog who'd get by his athletic ability and had little polish and skill to his game and, above all, didn't know how to win and how to play the right way. A selfish low IQ player who would take almost 30 shots per game, wasn't a team player, coudln't even shoot 20% from distance and would just jump over people to dunk stuff.
He ended up doing alright in the NBA though - he's the consensus best player in the history of the game, or at least was for a couple of decades.
I'm sure one could come up with a few other examples - say, the current MVP.
I understand selective memory phenomenons, but that take it to a whole new level. And of course athletic guys are overrepresented among busts - they're way overrepresented among high draft picks, which means they're overrepresented among guys with high expectations that can fall into the "bust" category. It's a consequence of the fact that Jordan was uber-athletic and Westbrook is uber-athletic and LeBron is uber-athletic and so on.
If you will look only for MJ and Lebron type of superstar it’s very likely you won’t have nobody to play basketball in the team.
If I’m not mistaken we’re looking at 2018 draft and there really isn’t anybody remotely similar to MJ or Lebron. But I see some with Anthony Bennett potential.
Novocaine wrote:Bob8 wrote:reanimator wrote:
"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.
And Ricky Rubio was doing things in Europe that other Euro prospects who turned out way better than him couldn't do so what is the significance of that?
My point is he’s the only one who has already done anything. But it looks to me you believe more what Beagley, Porter and others maybe will do someday. It’s nothing wrong with believing, but when we talk about Doncic, it’s only about what he’s doing now. Maybe you should believe he can improve too?
What they're doing now is mostly immaterial. It's just a baseline; it's not even functional to see it as a floor. The only thing that matters is what they'll be able to do once they have fully matured as basketball players and any improvements left will tend to be marginal, when the currently underdeveloped guys had caught up with the more precocious ones (or not).
Obsessing over what prospects are doing instead of focusing on what they will be able to do in the NBA is completely useless in draft discussions. Drafts aren't a best player rank for a reason.
Apollo64 wrote:reanimator wrote:Bob8 wrote:
3. You can disagree and believe whatever you want. But the fact is Doncic is doing things that anyone before couldn’t. Let’s look to Ntilikina, he couldn’t do this in the 3rd tier competition in Europe and he even didn’t make in the French NT, which Slovenia destroyed by 20 in Eurobasket.
"Everyone before him" doesn't include American players so I don't care.
To put things in perspective, Karl Anthony Towns, arguably one of the best prospects of the decade, wasn't seeing much playing time for the Dominican Republic in a similar (but weaker) tournament.
http://archive.fiba.com/pages/eng/fa/p/q/Karl-Anthony%20TOWNS/pid/95045/_//players.html
reanimator wrote:3. Says there isn't a single player in the 2017 or 2018 draft class who could make an impact in FIBA, Euroleague, or ACB play at his age. I disagree. I think there are multiple players who could if given the minutes and similar role.
4. Admits European bigmen find greater success than wings. I've been saying this for months. They think its purely because size is a premium but I say perimeter players struggle with the transition against faster/quicker/longer athletes which is mitigated for bigs.
.
Rn5ho wrote:I'll just leave this here for all the sceptics
This is why athleticism is NOT always better than basketball IQ and technique. This is a nice example of just that and there have been a lot of comparisons between Bodiroga and Doncic (but I think they're still pretty different anyway).
Novocaine wrote:3. No way, nobody would even come close.
I mean, if you send them back in a time machine and put them through the same developmental path Doncic took and they react fine to moving to Spain at 14 years old and so on, sure, I can see a a few having a similar impact. Perhaps not quite as high, Doncic is very precocious in terms of physical development, but in the same ballpark, sure. Fultz for example would be a much different player -much closer to his eventual ceiling- if he already had seasons of practising and playing against pros under his belt. But that's not their premise - what they're saying is that this universe's 18 years old Fultz, etc, would have no chance of having the same impact. And they wouldn't - they'd get clobbered by guys much bigger, more experienced, more mature. Transitioning from high-school basketball to Doncic's level is basically impossible.
I never saw Nowitzki when he was in the draft, but one guy I did study extensively (on two separate trips to Europe), and who might end up being one of the best European players ever, was Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis was almost the same age as Doncic is now back when we first scouted him, and it's incredible to compare the differences in the level of competition they are at and their level of polish. I distinctly remember NBA scouts telling me they would never consider drafting Giannis because he wasn't able to dominate even at an incredibly poor level of competition like the Greek 2nd division (which is almost a semi-pro league in terms of salaries and conditions), and to contrast that with Doncic nearly averaging a triple-double (15.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists) on a per-40 basis in the Euroleague as a 17/18-year old is simply astounding.
Doncic obviously doesn't have anywhere near the same physical tools as Giannis, but I really don't think there's a single player in this draft class (or 2017 for that matter) who could step on the court and make the type of impact he has in FIBA, Euroleague or ACB play at that age. Now that we've been able to see him do it against legitimate NBA players in their prime, like Kristaps Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Evan Fournier, Pau Gasol, Rubio and others, it really eliminates a lot of the "mystery" involved in translating his production from Europe to the NBA.