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"A Tale of 2 Hardawayz"

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"A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#1 » by Mecca » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:02 am

There are few events in the summer that match the sudden excitement and overall thrill that NBA Free Agency possesses.
It’s almost as if NBA Free Agency has taken on a mind of it’s own as if it were a down to the minute reality show, almost like a Bachelorette for sports fans. With so much coverage, media attention and instantaneous feedback, central themes begin to develop across specific franchises. While franchises such as the Warriors and the Thunder have created prestigious reputations by making a plethora of savvy and meticulous organizational planning decisions, the Knicks continue to find innate ways to decimate their reputation as a reputable organization.

As 2017 Free Agency arrived, the Knicks found themselves in an opportunistic scenario to shoot themselves in the foot once again. Sitting smug with over 20 million in cap space to burn and Tim Hardaway Jr. sitting there for the taking, the Knicks couldn’t pass up the opportunity to create drama, attention and overall dysfunction. When the contract details of Tim Hardaway Jr’s 4 year, 71 million dollar contract were revealed, history had repeated itself once again. Hardaway’s contract trended on Twitter, flooded the message boards and became the butt of the never-ending joke of the Knicks. Hardaway Jr.’s contract had more than doubled the career earnings of his father.

You know the 5 time All-Pro with one of the most devastating crossovers to grace the hardwood? Now, buckle up and thoroughly prepare yourself for the brazen statement I’m ready to make. While Hardaway Jr. may never be his father, he will be worth every penny of his contract. In fact, I’m ready to state that his contract was actually a wise decision by the Knicks’ front office. If you possess the fortitude to continue reading, and trust me, I won’t blame you if you don’t- it is the Knicks after all- you’d be pleasantly surprised of the statistical evidence that illustrates Hardaway Jr.’s growth as a weapon on the court.

Hardaway Jr.’s growth as a weapon on the court certainly hasn’t developed overnight, which is why his career can be looked upon as a “Tale of 2 Hardawayz.” The “Tale of 2 Hardawayz” began on January 7th, 2017. At the time, Hardaway Jr.’s minutes were sporadic, citing defensive lapses and inexcusable shot selection on the court throughout the first year and a half. However, due to the shocking trade of Kyle Korver to the Cleveland Cavaliers, opportunity arrived for THJ. As opportunity arose, THJ went full “carpe diem” into the new year."

In order to illustrate Hardaway Jr.’s second half success, I’ve broken down a multitude of different statistics starting at the day Kyle Korver had been shipped to Cleveland. The table below shows the basic statistics of THJ post-Korver trade. (Basketball-Reference)

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As a near 48 game sample size is credible enough to dismiss a fluke, it’s difficult to underlook the 2-Guard's hidden success. Shooting .388% from beyond the arc, over 80% from the stripe, and .47% from the field are impressive for a modern day 2 guard. THJ’s improved efficiency had resulted in a surprising 58% TS%. While THJ’s base line stats are impressive to the naked eye, it was his impact on the court that influenced the Knicks’ decision to hand him a 71 million dollar contract. When you analyze the Hawks’ best 5-man lineups post-Korver trade, THJ is a mainstay on the list. THJ appeared on the Hawks’ 6 best 5-man lineups in terms of +/- and FG% on the court. This is depicted Basketball Reference’s chart listed below.

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To any naysayer that attempts to mitigate THJ’s impact by pointing out that 5 man lineups aren’t a credible premise, when you concentrate the lineups to a 3-man unit, THJ is a mainstay on the list. According to Basketball Reference, there are substantial jumps in FG%, 3PT%, eFG%, and of course +/- where THJ was a vital part of 9 of the Hawks’ 10 best 3-man lineups.

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As THJ was a pivotal presence to the team’s success in reaching the postseason through being apart of the team’s best lineups, when you analyze his impact compared to other members of the Hawks, you’d be puzzled by the results. According to Basketball Reference, THJ was the team’s most valuable player post-Korver trade. Hardaway Jr. ranked #1 on the Hawks in overall net-points (points minus opponents points) as well as net-FG%. Yes, that’s Tim Hardaway Jr. you’re seeing over all-star Paul Millsap.

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When deep diving into the Hawks’ surprising 48-34 season, an unlikely catalyst had emerged in the former Michigan standout. From his overall impressive numbers, to his impact on the court, to appearing in essentially all of the Hawks’ strongest lineups, he has all the makings of becoming worth his 71 million dollar contract. While the overwhelming majority of Knicks have already began growing their tomatoes in order to toss them at Tim Hardaway Jr. and the Knicks’ front office, I fully expect the second half of the “Tale of 2 Hardawayz” to reign supreme throughout the duration of his contract.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#2 » by Mecca » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:05 am

damn I'm a nerd
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#3 » by Newyorknick94 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:22 am

Sounds like Hardaway is about to have a good year
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#4 » by Dunk93 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:52 am

Timmy better go timmy mode. Damn I'm excited to watch these young cats play together in a melo-less environment.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#5 » by Kampuchea » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:58 am

Copy paste?
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#6 » by Jose7 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 2:59 am

Kampuchea wrote:Copy paste?

chill.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#7 » by Deeeez Knicks » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:01 am

Great article and anaylsis. I hope your right. Also hope the defense is at least legit. Not sure the 2nd half shooting is sustainable, but if he can be a solid defender while putting up last year's overall numbers that would be solid. But if he can continue getting better and play at that level, that would become a great signing
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#8 » by Kampuchea » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:02 am

Thought it's an article somewhere. Props to OP
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#9 » by Kampuchea » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:08 am

I think THJ is going to surprise, even if I think we could have gotten him a little cheaper. I worry he may win us a few too many games
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#10 » by Mecca » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:10 am

Kampuchea wrote:Copy paste?


Nahh, I wrote it.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#11 » by HarthorneWingo » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:11 am

Great job, Mec.

I'm cautiously VERY optimistic. I believe that this move will turn out well for us.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#12 » by Dantares » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:12 am

bro good post. but how can you not start the thread with "it was the best of times, it was the worst of times."
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#13 » by Manhattan Project » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:17 am

It's as you say, it's a 48 game sample size... in a contract year. Considering the market and what similar players got [KCP], there's no other way to see but as an overpay. Like you said, he was kind of throw into the first in Atlanta, teams weren't game planning for him, that won't be the case in NY. Here he will be a top two option and teams will be looking to make him revert into the old Timmy, where we all remember he never met a shot he didn't like.

I don't mind bringing him back, I feel like he's actually going to be pretty good here with the team we got forming. However with that being said, for him to justify the contract he was given, he's going to have to step his game up even more and prove that it wasn't just a case of the contract year.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#14 » by Mecca » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:18 am

Deeeez Knicks wrote:Great article and anaylsis. I hope your right. Also hope the defense is at least legit. Not sure the 2nd half shooting is sustainable, but if he can be a solid defender while putting up last year's overall numbers that would be solid. But if he can continue getting better and play at that level, that would become a great signing



I think Budenholzer is arguably the 2nd best coach in ball. His teams consistently lack talent, yet somehow overachieve. I definitely think he took Timmy to school the last few years. Once he gave him the opportunity, he was arguably their 2nd most important player.


The defense improved to around league average. I still think his worth will come from his scoring in a Hornacek transition based offense.

I really think we're going to be better than what a lot of skeptics say. Gun to my head I say 37 wins.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#15 » by Mecca » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:22 am

Manhattan Project wrote:It's as you say, it's a 48 game sample size... in a contract year. Considering the market and what similar players got [KCP], there's no other way to see but as an overpay. Like you said, he was kind of throw into the first in Atlanta, teams weren't game planning for him, that won't be the case in NY. Here he will be a top two option and teams will be looking to make him revert into the old Timmy, where we all remember he never met a shot he didn't like.

I don't mind bringing him back, I feel like he's actually going to be pretty good here with the team we got forming. However with that being said, for him to justify the contract he was given, he's going to have to step his game up even more and prove that it wasn't just a case of the contract year.


But, it wasn't a random 48 games. It was based on the day Korver got traded so there was a specific dependent variable that changed.

I'd also argue that 48 games is a strong sample size. That's 65% of the season.

It also isn't about what team's are trying to make him do. That's all based on assumption. You can have the flip side of that and say that now that he's a #2 option, he's going to flourish and benefit from camp-Budenholzer.

4/71 puts THJ at around 10th-16th in SG salaries. If he plays like an above avg 2 guard, he's worth the contract.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#16 » by Jesus Juice » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:35 am

I’ve always had the feeling that if you subtract Melo from the equation THJ would produce career numbers this year, the one thing he did well when he was a Knick was finish in transition, he will have a ton of opportunities like that with Jeff coaching his style.. just looking at KP and THJ on media day along with Beasley those guys put in the work this off season and are going to have a chance to put some shots up they all might post career numbers in this environment
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#17 » by fatalogic » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:42 am

I think he will do well but if he doesn't the blame should be placed at Jeff's feet.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#18 » by SelbyCobra » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:59 am

I posted this at the time of the trade, and I think it goes in here, too. Not because it's making any definitive statement about what Hardaway will be for certain, but instead it made me arch my eyebrows at what he was (and thus what he might bring going forward)...

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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#19 » by BowlRips » Tue Sep 26, 2017 3:59 am

Good work.
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Re: "A Tale of 2 Hardawayz" 

Post#20 » by F N 11 » Tue Sep 26, 2017 4:06 am

I believe in Tim. I know he is going to have a breakout year.

Also mad props in taking the time for such an informative post.
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