[Woj] TJ Warren Contract Extension

[bwgood77]

The biggest knock on him is his shooting right?
Can he share the court with Josh Jackson and a big that can't shoot?

Not really his shooting, but more so his 3 point shooting.

I'd take Warren on 4/$50M over Wiggins on 5/$148M anyday of the week.

The Player Comparison speaks volumes.

http://bkref.com/tiny/MRsuE

If Warren works on his 3 point shot, he will be amazing.

The Wiggins deal being awful doesn't make the Warren deal not bad.

It's a bargain based on the contract values today. Warren is probably more underrated just because I feel few have watched the impact he can have. I don't like the "You haven't watched him" argument, but clearly there can't be THAT many people who watch the Suns, so it's a little more relevant in this case. I'm extremely stoked about this contract as are most Suns fans.

I didn't even see Kerrsed's posts here but made a similar post elsewhere and actually also used Wiggins as an example because they are in the same draft:

This is a great deal. Most underrated player in Phx. He has had an unfortunate career. Hornacek kept him mostly on the bench as a rookie, and then when he finally started getting playing time as a 2nd year guy, he got injured.

This past year he was on fire, but had an unfortunate medical condition that kept him out a bit and messed him up for a bit.

He has started less than a full season overall.

He was far better than Wiggins, for example, overall last year. Wiggins better from 3 this past year, not much better over his career (slightly). Outside of that, Warren is FAR more efficient offensively, a great overall scorer, and a far better defender.

I mean look at their advanced stat comparisons from last year, and their TS% and eFG%

http://bkref.com/tiny/m0zDC

And Wiggins wants 5 years at $143 million? TJ at $12.5 a year is better than Wiggins at almost $29 a year.

Wiggins is younger so may have more upside, but he's had a lot more opportunity in the league to improve already.

Suns fans are stoked about this deal.

[bwgood77]

No but when you compare the two stat wise, and see how underrated Warren is (Specially on RealGM)

Cutting out the Wiggins discussion (when he signs that will go there), that link doesn't show me anything to suggest that Warren is underrated.

I see a guy who is bad defensively.
Who doesn't significantly create for others or have 3 point range to help team offense.
Who is a below average rebounder for sf's.
And who can bench score, with almost average efficiency.

That is a one trick in one of the most replaceable skills, and not someone I have worth 12.5m.

Comparing with Wiggins feels more unfair than comparing with Shabazz: http://bkref.com/tiny/jIcNe

Wow, Shabazz is even worse defensively than Wiggins. And older than T.J.

There is clearly some disagreement here among opinions in the thread so I doubt things will change in that respect, but I was really hoping he didn't hit RFA last year after watching what some of the wings got and looking at the teams with cap space. I was hoping somewhere between $12-$14, but thought with the market supposedly to be even more in a depression next summer, though there was a chance he could only get $10, but didn't want to bank on it.

I guess it will remain to be seen where he goes from here, but if healthy, I expect him to outplay his contract.

[Mystical Apples]

Using synergy data to make the point Warren is "REALLY good" is either disingenuous or a misunderstanding of what the data actually says. I have Warren's 9th percentile playmaking efficiency dragging his overall halfcourt efficiency down to 16th percentile. The worst? No, but certainly far from REALLY good.

I use synergy data for some calculations so I verified what they have on him and sure enough.....20th percentile. Also of note, 21.4% of his possessions were in transition.

Read on Twitter

[HartfordWhalers]

Okay, I'm going to o ahead and make fun of the stats above:


I have serious issues with Duncan Smith and his ability to impartially present data. And that is not that it is only offensive stats and ignore playmaking, defense and rebounding.

The scale rank goes 0 to 100%, with a player at 50% better and worse than half of the NBA players. So he characterizes it as:
84% Excellent
66-75% Very Good
62% Good
33% Average
16% Below average

33% being "Average" while 66% being "Very Good" while both being equally far off the median sure looks like the definition of lopsided slant. And its important because that 33% as 'average' is as a spot up shooter, the area where his usage could go up more most naturally. You aren't likely to maintain that transition percentage if he increases his usage for instance.

[GimmeDat]

This is a quality deal for a good player who has the potential to be even better. His role is minimized with the addition of Jackson, but he's a quality 6th/7th man and this is a very movable contract if it gets in the way of team building.

[Mystical Apples]

Okay, I'm going to o ahead and make fun of the stats above:


I have serious issues with Duncan Smith and his ability to impartially present data. And that is not that it is only offensive stats and ignore playmaking, defense and rebounding.

The scale rank goes 0 to 100%, with a player at 50% better and worse than half of the NBA players. So he characterizes it as:
84% Excellent
66-75% Very Good
62% Good
33% Average
16% Below average

33% being "Average" while 66% being "Very Good" while both being equally far off the median sure looks like the definition of lopsided slant. And its important because that 33% as 'average' is as a spot up shooter, the area where his usage could go up more most naturally. You aren't likely to maintain that transition percentage if he increases his usage for instance.

Ha yeah it's like the arbitrary labels are for happy clients. Samples can be small so I kinda get it but there's an important distinction.

Also weird -- ignoring the weighting differential between scoring categories and positional expectations. Or for that matter, data suggesting playmaking is roughly equivalent to scoring impact (and the whole defense/rebounding thing).

[HartfordWhalers]

For what its worth on the comparison between all three players, here is 538's take:

Shabazz worth -11.7m over the next 5 years:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/shabazz-muhammad/
Warren worth 27.5m over the next 5 years:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/tj-warren/
Wiggins worth 78.9m over the next 5 years:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/andrew-wiggins/

And for comparison:
Porter: 181.7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/otto-porter-jr/
Covington: 107.5m
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/robert-covington/
Dekker: 40.3m
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/sam-dekker/
Ingles: 40.0
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/joe-ingles/
CJ Miles: 9.8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/cj-miles/
Tucker: 23.3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/pj-tucker/


I'm not crazy about the 538 projections so let me be clear abut that, but thought I would post them anyway for fodder.

Edit: But seriously, my first take away is those projections are very hit or miss.
My second take away is the Covington extension should be interesting.

[Mystical Apples]

Reminds me. Their comp may surprise people.

Lamb $32.4M
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/jeremy-lamb/

[bwgood77]

For what its worth on the comparison between all three players, here is 538's take:

Shabazz worth -11.7m over the next 5 years:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/shabazz-muhammad/
Warren worth 27.5m over the next 5 years:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/tj-warren/
Wiggins worth 78.9m over the next 5 years:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/andrew-wiggins/

And for comparison:
Porter: 181.7
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/otto-porter-jr/
Covington: 107.5m
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/robert-covington/
Dekker: 40.3m
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/sam-dekker/
Ingles: 40.0
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/joe-ingles/
CJ Miles: 9.8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/cj-miles/
Tucker: 23.3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/pj-tucker/


I'm not crazy about the 538 projections so let me be clear abut that, but thought I would post them anyway for fodder.

Edit: But seriously, my first take away is those projections are very hit or miss.
My second take away is the Covington extension should be interesting.

I saw those a while back, and the one thing that actually jumped out as odd was Warren. Their charts with marks on where they were in certain categories appeared to make Warren look pretty good, but their comments didn't make sense based on what I saw and what they said about others.

I really think his numbers have suffered partially because of a lack of opportunity, but also because of getting injured in his second year right when he started getting playing time. Then he was our most valuable player this year based on per minute and per games played Suns forum votes. We vote on players of the game after each game.

Of course now he will compete some with Jackson, but I think they might play some together too in small ball lineups, particularly if one or both shooter better from 3.

I just don't think he's gotten near the NBA experience where you can improve because of on court experience as guys like Porter, Wiggins and Covington.

Not because he wasn't worthy, but in year one, Hornacek, after a surprise year, and the owner, thought we were going to compete, and PJ Tucker left his heart on the floor so he didn't play much. Then finally he started to play after the bad start two years ago, and this year after starting out on fire, had a bad reaction from some fluids/medicine they had given him and was hospitalized and clearly having some problems before and after that, which drastically impacted his stats for a stretch..he was far better to start the season and down the stretch.

[Prospect Dong]

This reminds me a lot of the Kings extending Fran Garcia back in `08. Not any real similarity in their games (honestly, I don't always remember who TJ Warren even is) but because it's a bad team locking up a guy whose absolute ceiling is above-average starter to starter money without having their championship core clearly in place.

Kings fans were hyped about the extension, and were adamant that Garcia would remain movable if it didn't work out

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=840168&start=40#start_here

Here's what I said then

But I think you have to sort out your stars first and your role-players later. Right now the Kings are basically locked-in to what they have at the 1, 2 and 3, without having any true all stars at any of those positions - though Martin is obviously close. That makes adding the missing pieces pretty tough

and I think that holds up pretty well here. Warren's not the missing piece, and the Suns don't know what the next contending suns team is going to look like. Why sign a probable below-average starter a year earlier than you need to?

Since I'm diggin back through the archives anyway, it's worth noting that Bobcats fans absolutely loved Tyrus Thomas' extension

My point is proven...The only way you would only say something that (Please Use More Appropriate Word) is if you didn't actually watch TT play in a bobcat uniform.. you watch stat sheets, I watch the games... Tyrus is infinitely better then Boris Meow...

It should tell you something the only people that are saying that this is a bad signing are non bobcat fans... People who actually had a close eye on TT's play for the last 6 months think this is a good contract.. so fall back

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1032733&start=30

If this is Suns management falling in love with their guy, the excitement for the deal among fans might be the same thing.

[TTP]

Not really his shooting, but more so his 3 point shooting.

I'd take Warren on 4/$50M over Wiggins on 5/$148M anyday of the week.

The Player Comparison speaks volumes.

http://bkref.com/tiny/MRsuE

If Warren works on his 3 point shot, he will be amazing.

The Wiggins deal being awful doesn't make the Warren deal not bad.

It's a bargain based on the contract values today. Warren is probably more underrated just because I feel few have watched the impact he can have. I don't like the "You haven't watched him" argument, but clearly there can't be THAT many people who watch the Suns, so it's a little more relevant in this case. I'm extremely stoked about this contract as are most Suns fans.

I didn't even see Kerrsed's posts here but made a similar post elsewhere and actually also used Wiggins as an example because they are in the same draft:

This is a great deal. Most underrated player in Phx. He has had an unfortunate career. Hornacek kept him mostly on the bench as a rookie, and then when he finally started getting playing time as a 2nd year guy, he got injured.

This past year he was on fire, but had an unfortunate medical condition that kept him out a bit and messed him up for a bit.

He has started less than a full season overall.

He was far better than Wiggins, for example, overall last year. Wiggins better from 3 this past year, not much better over his career (slightly). Outside of that, Warren is FAR more efficient offensively, a great overall scorer, and a far better defender.

I mean look at their advanced stat comparisons from last year, and their TS% and eFG%

http://bkref.com/tiny/m0zDC

And Wiggins wants 5 years at $143 million? TJ at $12.5 a year is better than Wiggins at almost $29 a year.

Wiggins is younger so may have more upside, but he's had a lot more opportunity in the league to improve already.

Suns fans are stoked about this deal.

You'll get no argument from me that Wiggins is extremely overrated, but your argument is still weak because it doesn't take into account the differences in usage and age-adjusted production. Wiggins' 53.4% TS% on 29.0% USG in his age 21 season is far more impressive than Warren's 53.9% on 19.2% USG in his age 23 season.

Wiggins is 1.5 years younger and these are some pretty significant years. Average historical production data shows that rapid development tends to occur up until around a player's age 23 season, with much slower improvement until around 27/28. It's a lot easier to justify significant growth for Wiggins at 22.5 than for Warren at 24. Wiggins' efficiency at Warren's age is likely to be significantly greater than what Warren produced last season.

Finally, Wiggins, while a terrible defender now, at least has the tools to be a good defender in the future. The same is not the case for Warren.

[bwgood77]

The Wiggins deal being awful doesn't make the Warren deal not bad.

It's a bargain based on the contract values today. Warren is probably more underrated just because I feel few have watched the impact he can have. I don't like the "You haven't watched him" argument, but clearly there can't be THAT many people who watch the Suns, so it's a little more relevant in this case. I'm extremely stoked about this contract as are most Suns fans.

I didn't even see Kerrsed's posts here but made a similar post elsewhere and actually also used Wiggins as an example because they are in the same draft:

This is a great deal. Most underrated player in Phx. He has had an unfortunate career. Hornacek kept him mostly on the bench as a rookie, and then when he finally started getting playing time as a 2nd year guy, he got injured.

This past year he was on fire, but had an unfortunate medical condition that kept him out a bit and messed him up for a bit.

He has started less than a full season overall.

He was far better than Wiggins, for example, overall last year. Wiggins better from 3 this past year, not much better over his career (slightly). Outside of that, Warren is FAR more efficient offensively, a great overall scorer, and a far better defender.

I mean look at their advanced stat comparisons from last year, and their TS% and eFG%

http://bkref.com/tiny/m0zDC

And Wiggins wants 5 years at $143 million? TJ at $12.5 a year is better than Wiggins at almost $29 a year.

Wiggins is younger so may have more upside, but he's had a lot more opportunity in the league to improve already.

Suns fans are stoked about this deal.

You'll get no argument from me that Wiggins is extremely overrated, but your argument is still weak because it doesn't take into account the differences in usage and age-adjusted production. Wiggins' 53.4% TS% on 29.0% USG in his age 21 season is far more impressive than Warren's 53.9% on 19.2% USG in his age 23 season.

Wiggins is also 1.5 years younger and these are some pretty significant years. Average historical production data shows that rapid development tends to occur up until around a player's age 23 season, with much slower improvement until around 27/28. It's a lot easier to justify significant growth for Wiggins at 22.5 than for Warren at 24. Wiggins' efficiency at Warren's age is likely to be significantly greater than what Warren produced last season.

Finally, Wiggins, while a terrible defender now, at least has the tools to be a good defender in the future. The same is not the case for Warren.

I think despite being 1.5 years younger, Wiggins still has more NBA on court experience than Warren. While I think Wiggins has more upside, I think that should be considered.

While I'm not saying that Warren will be better than Wiggins, I was simply saying the contract is much more a value, and you are right that Wiggins getting overpaid doesn't mean that Warren being overpaid (if you think so) give it an excuse. Most everyone is overpaid though.

[bondom34]

Its a bit much. I don't know if I hate it as much as some but it's a pretty decent overpay. He came out bottom 10 in DRAPM and near 400th overall, somewhere between Beasley and Barton. Overall ability wise I'd rate him around where Clarkson is and Clarkson's a similarly not great deal.

[lilfishi22]

Solid for both as long as Warren can stay on the court. Hard to pinpoint Warren's value right now. I'd say he's an 8-9M caliber player right now with the potential to become a 13-14M caliber player. So the Suns are paying a little more than they need to just in case Warren blows up next season.

+1

I think this is a very balanced and reasonable view of the extension.

[Dupp]

His stats don't seem to line up with how good people say he is (I haven't seen much of him) but regardless this seems like a great deal for the suns.

[jayjaysee]

Don't mind it.. It's a small overpay betting on TJ actually being the player he was for that stretch this season.. If he is it'll be a bargain, if not he'll be a eh filler contract.

And.. I haven't checked, at all, to see if it's out there yet, but I hope Phoenix got it declining.. Considering their current financial situation, the fact that they didn't need to offer him anything, and the potential he is overpaid...much rather pay TJ Warren 15-16 mil next season and 9-10 in 2023 than 12.5 flat. And don't see why TJ would care how Phoenix managed his 50 mil.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums

[bwgood77]

This reminds me a lot of the Kings extending Fran Garcia back in `08. Not any real similarity in their games (honestly, I don't always remember who TJ Warren even is) but because it's a bad team locking up a guy whose absolute ceiling is above-average starter to starter money without having their championship core clearly in place.

Kings fans were hyped about the extension, and were adamant that Garcia would remain movable if it didn't work out

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=840168&start=40#start_here

Here's what I said then

But I think you have to sort out your stars first and your role-players later. Right now the Kings are basically locked-in to what they have at the 1, 2 and 3, without having any true all stars at any of those positions - though Martin is obviously close. That makes adding the missing pieces pretty tough

and I think that holds up pretty well here. Warren's not the missing piece, and the Suns don't know what the next contending suns team is going to look like. Why sign a probable below-average starter a year earlier than you need to?

Since I'm diggin back through the archives anyway, it's worth noting that Bobcats fans absolutely loved Tyrus Thomas' extension

My point is proven...The only way you would only say something that (Please Use More Appropriate Word) is if you didn't actually watch TT play in a bobcat uniform.. you watch stat sheets, I watch the games... Tyrus is infinitely better then Boris Meow...

It should tell you something the only people that are saying that this is a bad signing are non bobcat fans... People who actually had a close eye on TT's play for the last 6 months think this is a good contract.. so fall back

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1032733&start=30

If this is Suns management falling in love with their guy, the excitement for the deal among fans might be the same thing.

The Suns have many missing pieces and many projects. TJ right now is their second or third best player. I don't think you give up on a guy because he's not a star or even if you think it's an overpay, you just can't let an asset walk out the door. There is a decent chance he gets more next offseason they'd have to match, and it's not worth the chance. Their cap space is fine too. There is no need to try and sign a premier free agent with the state of their team and the western conference.

When Booker gets his next deal, Dudley and Chandler are off the books...that's $23 million. When Bender/Chriss get their's, if they do, Knight's $14 million comes off the books. Alan Williams may be their center going forward, and he is cheap. But they may also get one in the next draft (who will be cheap as well), with a few premier ones at the top.

[Prospect Dong]

This reminds me a lot of the Kings extending Fran Garcia back in `08. Not any real similarity in their games (honestly, I don't always remember who TJ Warren even is) but because it's a bad team locking up a guy whose absolute ceiling is above-average starter to starter money without having their championship core clearly in place.

Kings fans were hyped about the extension, and were adamant that Garcia would remain movable if it didn't work out

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=840168&start=40#start_here

Here's what I said then

But I think you have to sort out your stars first and your role-players later. Right now the Kings are basically locked-in to what they have at the 1, 2 and 3, without having any true all stars at any of those positions - though Martin is obviously close. That makes adding the missing pieces pretty tough

and I think that holds up pretty well here. Warren's not the missing piece, and the Suns don't know what the next contending suns team is going to look like. Why sign a probable below-average starter a year earlier than you need to?

Since I'm diggin back through the archives anyway, it's worth noting that Bobcats fans absolutely loved Tyrus Thomas' extension

My point is proven...The only way you would only say something that (Please Use More Appropriate Word) is if you didn't actually watch TT play in a bobcat uniform.. you watch stat sheets, I watch the games... Tyrus is infinitely better then Boris Meow...

It should tell you something the only people that are saying that this is a bad signing are non bobcat fans... People who actually had a close eye on TT's play for the last 6 months think this is a good contract.. so fall back

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1032733&start=30

If this is Suns management falling in love with their guy, the excitement for the deal among fans might be the same thing.

The Suns have many missing pieces and many projects. TJ right now is their second or third best player. I don't think you give up on a guy because he's not a star or even if you think it's an overpay, you just can't let an asset walk out the door. There is a decent chance he gets more next offseason they'd have to match, and it's not worth the chance. Their cap space is fine too. There is no need to try and sign a premier free agent with the state of their team and the western conference.

When Booker gets his next deal, Dudley and Chandler are off the books...that's $23 million. When Bender/Chriss get their's, if they do, Knight's $14 million comes off the books. Alan Williams may be their center going forward, and he is cheap. But they may also get one in the next draft, with a few premier ones at the top.

I don't know that retaining the third best player on the fifth (?) worst team in the league should be such a high priority. Watching a borderline starter walk away is tough, but sometimes it's the right decision. But that's not even the situation the Suns were faced with here - you've got the option to both wait a year and wait and see what happens in free agency before tying yourself to a contract like this. Sure, that comes with a risk that you'll end up paying more, and maybe you end up looking elsewhere for the fifth/sixth best player on your contending team. That's not the end of the world.

And yeah, sure, this deal probably doesn't stop you from keeping the team together, any more than Garcia (or Jason Thompson) forced the Kings to blow it up. But cap space is a resource and the suns, as presently constituted, aren't very good. "Keeping the team together" as a strategy requires at least two of your young guns to turn into all stars (which is possible, but not a lock), and if you need a plan B, having a slightly overpaid borderline starter on the books could foreclose some other, better options.

[TTP]

I think despite being 1.5 years younger, Wiggins still has more NBA on court experience than Warren. While I think Wiggins has more upside, I think that should be considered.

While I'm not saying that Warren will be better than Wiggins, I was simply saying the contract is much more a value, and you are right that Wiggins getting overpaid doesn't mean that Warren being overpaid (if you think so) give it an excuse. Most everyone is overpaid though.

Wiggins and Warren came into the NBA the same year. It's a point in Wiggins' favor that he's not only earned significantly more minutes but also has been exceptionally durable (missing one game in 3 seasons). Warren, due to being 1.5 years older, has had a physical and mental advantage over Wiggins, and their age adjusted production isn't close.

It's not like Warren has barely gotten minutes to show his skills. He's received over 3700 minutes in his first 3 years and there's nothing to suggest that he's the exception and we should expect him to have significantly more hidden upside than the average 24 year old.

Also, what does this upside consist of? What do you forecast him to be in the future that's going to make him a good wing starter (what he'd need to be to justify his cost)? Keep in mind that his current archetype has become even less valuable with each subsequent year. If it's simply becoming a more efficient form of what he currently is, I don't see him being a valuable player. I think he'd need to undergo a transformation to be useful, and that's pretty difficult to envision.

[bwgood77]

I don't know that retaining the third best player on the fifth (?) worst team in the league should be such a high priority. Watching a borderline starter walk away is tough, but sometimes it's the right decision. But that's not even the situation the Suns were faced with here - you've got the option to both wait a year and wait and see what happens in free agency before tying yourself to a contract like this. Sure, that comes with a risk that you'll end up paying more, and maybe you end up looking elsewhere for the fifth/sixth best player on your contending team. That's not the end of the world.

And yeah, sure, this deal probably doesn't stop you from keeping the team together, any more than Garcia (or Jason Thompson) forced the Kings to blow it up. But cap space is a resource and the suns, as presently constituted, aren't very good. "Keeping the team together" as a strategy requires at least two of your young guns to turn into all stars (which is possible, but not a lock), and if you need a plan B, having a slightly overpaid borderline starter on the books could foreclose some other, better options.

When you are rebuilding for 5 years, you can't just let one of your best draft picks for where he was drafted walk out the door. This is a fairly small % of the cap. What exactly do the Suns need cap space for? You think they should overpay someone else's restricted free agent to try and pry him away or try for more stars any time soon given the state of their team and the west?

Obviously the biggest disconnect is perceived value between many here.

You have about 60% thinking either it was a win by the Suns or both, and I expected it might be worse, because I have always thought he was quite underrated. It's certainly not a bad deal, unless you think he was worth half of that or something. If you are talking a few million a year then that's nothing with the cap at what it is.