[Woj] TJ Warren Contract Extension

[bwgood77]

I think despite being 1.5 years younger, Wiggins still has more NBA on court experience than Warren. While I think Wiggins has more upside, I think that should be considered.

While I'm not saying that Warren will be better than Wiggins, I was simply saying the contract is much more a value, and you are right that Wiggins getting overpaid doesn't mean that Warren being overpaid (if you think so) give it an excuse. Most everyone is overpaid though.

Wiggins and Warren came into the NBA the same year. It's a point in Wiggins' favor that he's not only earned significantly more minutes but also has been exceptionally durable (missing one game in 3 seasons). Warren, due to being 1.5 years older, has had a physical and mental advantage over Wiggins, and their age adjusted production isn't close.

It's not like Warren has barely gotten minutes to show his skills. He's received over 3700 minutes in his first 3 years and there's nothing to suggest that he's the exception and we should expect him to have significantly more hidden upside than the average 24 year old.

Also, what does this upside consist of? What do you forecast him to be in the future that's going to make him a good wing starter (what he'd need to be to justify his cost)? Keep in mind that his current archetype has become even less valuable with each subsequent year. If it's simply becoming a more efficient form of what he currently is, I don't see him being a valuable player. I think he'd need to undergo a transformation to be useful, and that's pretty difficult to envision.

Wiggins was a #1 pick and obviously was going to play. He didn't have to earn minutes. The Suns somehow overachieved in their first real rebuilding year, winning 48 games and signed IT in the offseason and the owner thought they should make the playoffs. So they were not going to play a rookie, like a team that traded Love for Wiggins.

HIs upside consists of improved 3 pt shooting and defense. I think his price is fine as a 6th man though, particularly given the cap situation right now and in the next few years. He can flat out score.

We can continue to disagree but we obviously fall on different sides of the fence on this guy, so it's probably not going to really go anywhere.

[Prospect Dong]

I don't know that retaining the third best player on the fifth (?) worst team in the league should be such a high priority. Watching a borderline starter walk away is tough, but sometimes it's the right decision. But that's not even the situation the Suns were faced with here - you've got the option to both wait a year and wait and see what happens in free agency before tying yourself to a contract like this. Sure, that comes with a risk that you'll end up paying more, and maybe you end up looking elsewhere for the fifth/sixth best player on your contending team. That's not the end of the world.

And yeah, sure, this deal probably doesn't stop you from keeping the team together, any more than Garcia (or Jason Thompson) forced the Kings to blow it up. But cap space is a resource and the suns, as presently constituted, aren't very good. "Keeping the team together" as a strategy requires at least two of your young guns to turn into all stars (which is possible, but not a lock), and if you need a plan B, having a slightly overpaid borderline starter on the books could foreclose some other, better options.

When you are rebuilding for 5 years, you can't just let one of your best draft picks for where he was drafted walk out the door. This is a fairly small % of the cap. What exactly do the Suns need cap space for? You think they should overpay someone else's restricted free agent to try and pry him away or try for more stars any time soon given the state of their team and the west?

Obviously the biggest disconnect is perceived value between many here.

You have about 60% thinking either it was a win by the Suns or both, and I expected it might be worse, because I have always thought he was quite underrated. It's certainly not a bad deal, unless you think he was worth half of that or something. If you are talking a few million a year then that's nothing with the cap at what it is.

This deal doesn't expire for five more years - a lot can happen in that time, and I'd imagine that suns management, and their fans, hope to field at least a fringe contender within that time span. Cap space, even if it's a small percentage of the total cap, is useful for rebuilding teams, for teams hoping to take the next step, and for contenders looking to extend their window. You can do a bunch of stuff with it, including acquiring guys like Tony Allen and Zach Randolph, or, to pick an example closer to home, Steve Nash. Is this 12 million dollar deal the things that's going to keep you from signing the next MVP? Almost certainly not. But it reduced the flexibility of a team that doesn't know what it's going to be yet, and doesn't know where it's best players are going to play. That doesn't seem smart unless you're getting a real steal on the value. Suns fans think they are, but so did Kings fans and Bobcats fans. I would have waited...

[bwgood77]

I don't know that retaining the third best player on the fifth (?) worst team in the league should be such a high priority. Watching a borderline starter walk away is tough, but sometimes it's the right decision. But that's not even the situation the Suns were faced with here - you've got the option to both wait a year and wait and see what happens in free agency before tying yourself to a contract like this. Sure, that comes with a risk that you'll end up paying more, and maybe you end up looking elsewhere for the fifth/sixth best player on your contending team. That's not the end of the world.

And yeah, sure, this deal probably doesn't stop you from keeping the team together, any more than Garcia (or Jason Thompson) forced the Kings to blow it up. But cap space is a resource and the suns, as presently constituted, aren't very good. "Keeping the team together" as a strategy requires at least two of your young guns to turn into all stars (which is possible, but not a lock), and if you need a plan B, having a slightly overpaid borderline starter on the books could foreclose some other, better options.

When you are rebuilding for 5 years, you can't just let one of your best draft picks for where he was drafted walk out the door. This is a fairly small % of the cap. What exactly do the Suns need cap space for? You think they should overpay someone else's restricted free agent to try and pry him away or try for more stars any time soon given the state of their team and the west?

Obviously the biggest disconnect is perceived value between many here.

You have about 60% thinking either it was a win by the Suns or both, and I expected it might be worse, because I have always thought he was quite underrated. It's certainly not a bad deal, unless you think he was worth half of that or something. If you are talking a few million a year then that's nothing with the cap at what it is.

This deal doesn't expire for five more years - a lot can happen in that time, and I'd imagine that suns management, and their fans, hope to field at least a fringe contender within that time span. Cap space, even if it's a small percentage of the total cap, is useful for rebuilding teams, for teams hoping to take the next step, and for contenders looking to extend their window. You can do a bunch of stuff with it, including acquiring guys like Tony Allen and Zach Randolph, or, to pick an example closer to home, Steve Nash. Is this 12 million dollar deal the things that's going to keep you from signing the next MVP? Almost certainly not. But it reduced the flexibility of a team that doesn't know what it's going to be yet, and doesn't know where it's best players are going to play. That doesn't seem smart unless you're getting a real steal on the value. Suns fans think they are, but so did Kings fans and Bobcats fans. I would have waited...

Maybe, but the cap likely keeps increasing, not as rapidly as in the past. He's a player. He singlehandedly wins games. He may not look great from a pure stats perspective but I expect that to only get better, not because of his age upside, but because of his playing time upside. I think he might be a late bloomer in some respects, but even if he just improves slightly, I think he can provide some nice value in a 6th man scoring role.

[QRich3]

Problem with TJ Warren is he's a one dimensional player that only does one thing: scoring. He literally doesn't contribute anything else of note. So if you just look at his scoring stats, you're gonna think he's a stud. But that's like judging Reggie Evans by only looking at his rebounding stats. They're only gonna tell you what you want to hear.

I think it's a lot of money for him, not a fan of the deal for the Suns.

[pacers33granger]

I'm not a big fan of it. Some 9f the responses in here remind me of the mkg, Clarkson, Burks, etc deals that look good at first but quickly become negative value (not saying this is negative value definitively but I see a lot of parallels).

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[daoneandonly]

May eat crow, but I don't like it. TJ Warren screams Devean George to me, hence not worth 50 mil at all.

[DRK]

ITT people who havent seen TJ Warren play basketball, instead judge him by his stats.
I think its a great deal that benefits everyone

[Jaw]

I don't think its a bad contract but given the salary cap situation most teams find themselves in and him not being among top RFA I'm not certain why Suns did this deal now instead of waiting things out. There aren't many teams financially able to offer more and most probably wouldn't be willing to offer more so not sure why they felt they had to get this deal done now.

[collidingNeurons]

I don't think its a bad contract but given the salary cap situation most teams find themselves in and him not being among top RFA I'm not certain why Suns did this deal now instead of waiting things out. There aren't many teams financially able to offer more and most probably wouldn't be willing to offer more so not sure why they felt they had to get this deal done now.

Not sure why the Suns did this now either, other than maybe reassure him he was part of their plans, but what's done is done and considering his next years cap hold was something like 9 mil it doesn't hurt them much for cap space perspective/// side benefit he wont be thrown into every realgm trade thread as filler

[Xman]

He seems to be worth the contract. But, it does not make sense to lock that money into a high quality backup while still rebuilding - and hoping to add a big time free agent in a year or two.
And - the contract is large enough that PHX will not be able to get much back in a deal (especially this year wilt PPP applies).

[Rapcity_11]

Warren reminds me of young DeRozan. Suns fans better hope he follows a similar developmental curve or this is going to be a bad deal.

Also, this whole only Suns fans have watched him and know how special he is…is pretty damn annoying.

[jpengland]

Is he better than Shabazz Mohammed?

Admittedly I haven't paid a lot of attention to him but from what I have seen he is a good scorer, poor defender, terrible from three and can't really play 4.

[bwgood77]

Warren reminds me of young DeRozan. Suns fans better hope he follows a similar developmental curve or this is going to be a bad deal.

Also, this whole only Suns fans have watched him and know how special he is…is pretty damn annoying.

Yeah, would be nice if more people had a chance to see him, but they are rarely on tv and not many want to watch a team at the bottom of the standings anyway.

[Andre Roberstan]

Warren reminds me of young DeRozan. Suns fans better hope he follows a similar developmental curve or this is going to be a bad deal.

Also, this whole only Suns fans have watched him and know how special he is…is pretty damn annoying.

Yeah, would be nice if more people had a chance to see him, but they are rarely on tv and not many want to watch a team at the bottom of the standings anyway.

If he played in LA or NYC, we'd hear about him ad infinitum. They sleep.

[Damkac]

Warren is a very underrated player. If he will get minutes and stay healthy he will suprise a lot of people. Great finisher and mid range shooter. He just need to improve his 3pt shot and good luck stoping him.
This is great news for Suns fans.

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[jredsaz]

I think despite being 1.5 years younger, Wiggins still has more NBA on court experience than Warren. While I think Wiggins has more upside, I think that should be considered.

While I'm not saying that Warren will be better than Wiggins, I was simply saying the contract is much more a value, and you are right that Wiggins getting overpaid doesn't mean that Warren being overpaid (if you think so) give it an excuse. Most everyone is overpaid though.

Wiggins and Warren came into the NBA the same year. It's a point in Wiggins' favor that he's not only earned significantly more minutes but also has been exceptionally durable (missing one game in 3 seasons). Warren, due to being 1.5 years older, has had a physical and mental advantage over Wiggins, and their age adjusted production isn't close.

It's not like Warren has barely gotten minutes to show his skills. He's received over 3700 minutes in his first 3 years and there's nothing to suggest that he's the exception and we should expect him to have significantly more hidden upside than the average 24 year old.

Also, what does this upside consist of? What do you forecast him to be in the future that's going to make him a good wing starter (what he'd need to be to justify his cost)? Keep in mind that his current archetype has become even less valuable with each subsequent year. If it's simply becoming a more efficient form of what he currently is, I don't see him being a valuable player. I think he'd need to undergo a transformation to be useful, and that's pretty difficult to envision.

He needs to develop his 3 point shot. Shooting is a skill that can be developed past 24. If he can shoot over 34% from deep he will be a starting quality 3/4 and a bargain on this extension.

Also, he is not as bad a defender and rebounder as advertised. His ESPN DRPM is way out of line with Bball reference DBPM and the eye test. His TRB% is 9.0, the same as Jimmy Butler and better than Tobias Harris and Harrison Barnes.

I think his biggest issue for Warren is staying on the court. He has had some weird injuries that have impacted his time on the court.


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[caliban]

I'd say there's 3 basic things you need to do to help your team win games as a role player.

1.) Defend (not much evidence of this but he's also playing with Len/Booker/Ulis and so on. Not exactly inspiring and system defense is hard to evaluate on a team that does not care about it)

2.) Shoot the 3 (a ways a way but not hopeless, could get there even if unlikely)

3.) Move the ball (no)

Given that the Wing position takes the longest time to master and that he hasn't played a lot of minutes there should still be some room for overall growth in his game. And even if this agreement doesn't pan out as prefered, the deal is hardly the last one a team in need of a wing will be looking at.
With that said, he's missing in the 3 basic categories to contemporary winning basketball as of now. That doesn't change with a nice floater.

[Mystical Apples]

The Warren extension is 1 of several recent transactions that leaves the impression of an old school GM justifying his job. The track record in its entirety has a very 2004-2013 Sacramento Kings feel to it, the difference being SAC was concurrently winning the first part of that period.

[Mr Swagtastic]

This is a good deal for both sides IMHO. Gives The Suns control of Warren for the next 4 years and he seems like he fits their system and they didn't really overpay for him considering what others got/will be getting in the near future

[Rapcity_11]

This is a good deal for both sides IMHO. Gives The Suns control of Warren for the next 4 years and he seems like he fits their system and they didn't really overpay for him considering what others got/will be getting in the near future

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.