[Woj] TJ Warren Contract Extension

[pacers33granger]

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

Agreed. We saw a bit of it this summer and there was a lot more money to go around. There's going to be what like 6 teams with decent cap space next summer? And Indy is one of them, so you can cross one team off the list for any RFAs (owner won't let management go after any). Seems like a bad time for extensions like this unless it's a good deal for the team.

[hcsilla]

Warren reminds me of young DeRozan.

That's not a bad comparison since both are kind of old-school scorers. DeRozan was more athletic and agressive while Warren is bigger and already has more range on his jumper.

I'm torn on this extension, I wouldn't have signed it if I'm the Suns, they basically bet on a breakout-year of Warren or on drastic improvement of his defense. If neither one happens, this deal seems a bit rich for a 6th man type of player with limited upside in a very bad team. I like TJ, he is a professional and will have a career in the NBA, I'm just not sure whether he is a core player of a young rebuilding team.

[Mystical Apples]

Running some wing and combo numbers using percent-to-cap (99, 102, 108, 120, 120) I had....

Oladipo
T. Johnson, who's 3-year was mildly positive before turning negative
Dion
Warren
THJ

[Mr Swagtastic]

This is a good deal for both sides IMHO. Gives The Suns control of Warren for the next 4 years and he seems like he fits their system and they didn't really overpay for him considering what others got/will be getting in the near future

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

I don't get the hate for Warren, Warren was fantastic for The Suns he averaged 14.4 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 blocks and 1.2 steals last season. I get that there are better wings like LeBron/Durant/George/Parker/Aaron Gordon but I don't think The Suns have a shot at any of those guys. IMHO resigning Warren is the smartest move for them, they bring back a guy who knows the system and is still very young (24) and to a reasonable deal. Ross got the same type of deal with Toronto and isn't really that much better than Warren. How much do you expect Norman Powell is going to get? I seriously doubt he gets more than this unless some team thinks he's the next breakout star plus he will be 25 years old as well

[Mystical Apples]

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

Agreed. We saw a bit of it this summer and there was a lot more money to go around. There's going to be what like 6 teams with decent cap space next summer? And Indy is one of them, so you can cross one team off the list for any RFAs (owner won't let management go after any). Seems like a bad time for extensions like this unless it's a good deal for the team.

Do we know if Warren shares an agent with Harris or Gordon? It's possible PHX jumping the gun on $50m was an informed decision.

[Rapcity_11]

This is a good deal for both sides IMHO. Gives The Suns control of Warren for the next 4 years and he seems like he fits their system and they didn't really overpay for him considering what others got/will be getting in the near future

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

I don't get the hate for Warren, Warren was fantastic for The Suns he averaged 14.4 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 blocks and 1.2 steals last season. I get that there are better wings like LeBron/Durant/George/Parker/Aaron Gordon but I don't think The Suns have a shot at any of those guys. IMHO resigning Warren is the smartest move for them, they bring back a guy who knows the system and is still very young (24) and to a reasonable deal. Ross got the same type of deal with Toronto and isn't really that much better than Warren. How much do you expect Norman Powell is going to get? I seriously doubt he gets more than this unless some team thinks he's the next breakout star plus he will be 25 years old as well

1. Those numbers aren’t fantastic. They’re middling.
2. 24 isn’t very young.
3. Nobody is saying let him walk. Just to let the RFA market play out
4. 30/3 isn't the same type of deal as 50/4.

[Mr Swagtastic]

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

I don't get the hate for Warren, Warren was fantastic for The Suns he averaged 14.4 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 blocks and 1.2 steals last season. I get that there are better wings like LeBron/Durant/George/Parker/Aaron Gordon but I don't think The Suns have a shot at any of those guys. IMHO resigning Warren is the smartest move for them, they bring back a guy who knows the system and is still very young (24) and to a reasonable deal. Ross got the same type of deal with Toronto and isn't really that much better than Warren. How much do you expect Norman Powell is going to get? I seriously doubt he gets more than this unless some team thinks he's the next breakout star plus he will be 25 years old as well

1. Those numbers aren’t fantastic. They’re middling.
2. 24 isn’t very young.
3. Nobody is saying let him walk. Just to let the RFA market play out
4. 30/3 isn't the same type of deal as 50/4.

Warren wasn't asked to be the main guy for The Suns, I think his numbers were good, everybody on The Raptors board talks about Powell as the next coming of Jesus Christ and he has worse off numbers and people are saying to get rid of DeMar to keep Powell.
I get they are not great numbers (Warren) but lets not say he's a bad deal, also how isn't 24 young in the league? I kinda understand your stance on why The Suns shouldn't have jumped the gun resigning him but I don't think they want to play the RFA guessing game either.

[Mystical Apples]

This is a good deal for both sides IMHO. Gives The Suns control of Warren for the next 4 years and he seems like he fits their system and they didn't really overpay for him considering what others got/will be getting in the near future

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

I don't get the hate for Warren, Warren was fantastic for The Suns he averaged 14.4 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 blocks and 1.2 steals last season. I get that there are better wings like LeBron/Durant/George/Parker/Aaron Gordon but I don't think The Suns have a shot at any of those guys. IMHO resigning Warren is the smartest move for them, they bring back a guy who knows the system and is still very young (24) and to a reasonable deal. Ross got the same type of deal with Toronto and isn't really that much better than Warren. How much do you expect Norman Powell is going to get? I seriously doubt he gets more than this unless some team thinks he's the next breakout star plus he will be 25 years old as well

For what it's worth passing metrics are general "upside" production indicators (overall improvement, impact, team defense, lineup combination possibilities). The fact Warren struggles there and is a 1-trick pony aren't exactly coincidences

Regarding extensions teams are showing a willingness to release players or trade them in favor of locking in LT deals. Shabazz was minimum, Detroit let KCP walk, Oladipo was traded, Mirotic was left on ice, not sure about Will Barton who waited and is now apparently negotiating, etc. In order of value (historically)....

Top ~ 8 players on max
Rookie scales
Cheap vets in their late 20's and early 30's on ST deals

Extensions based on optimistic projections

[Rapcity_11]

I don't get the hate for Warren, Warren was fantastic for The Suns he averaged 14.4 points per game, 5.1 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 0.6 blocks and 1.2 steals last season. I get that there are better wings like LeBron/Durant/George/Parker/Aaron Gordon but I don't think The Suns have a shot at any of those guys. IMHO resigning Warren is the smartest move for them, they bring back a guy who knows the system and is still very young (24) and to a reasonable deal. Ross got the same type of deal with Toronto and isn't really that much better than Warren. How much do you expect Norman Powell is going to get? I seriously doubt he gets more than this unless some team thinks he's the next breakout star plus he will be 25 years old as well

1. Those numbers aren’t fantastic. They’re middling.
2. 24 isn’t very young.
3. Nobody is saying let him walk. Just to let the RFA market play out
4. 30/3 isn't the same type of deal as 50/4.

Warren wasn't asked to be the main guy for The Suns, I think his numbers were good, everybody on The Raptors board talks about Powell as the next coming of Jesus Christ and he has worse off numbers and people are saying to get rid of DeMar to keep Powell.
I get they are not great numbers (Warren) but lets not say he's a bad deal, also how isn't 24 young in the league? I kinda understand your stance on why The Suns shouldn't have jumped the gun resigning him but I don't think they want to play the RFA guessing game either.

3&D guys get paid a hell of a lot differently than low-end scorers. That's a major consideration here you don't seem to be realizing.

Not being asked to be the main guy, while being primarily a scorer isn't a positive for Warren. That's a negative.

24 isn't "very young". I think that's pretty clear.

[Resistance]

He would have had a cap hold of $9.46 million next summer, so the Suns have surrendered a few million in cap space by doing this now.

[pacers33granger]

I think people are going to be surprised at what the wings get next summer. There’s a lot of good wings and not a lot of cap-space. It’s doubtful teams would have been lining up for a middling efficiency scorer who does little else, and has an injury history.

Agreed. We saw a bit of it this summer and there was a lot more money to go around. There's going to be what like 6 teams with decent cap space next summer? And Indy is one of them, so you can cross one team off the list for any RFAs (owner won't let management go after any). Seems like a bad time for extensions like this unless it's a good deal for the team.

Do we know if Warren shares an agent with Harris or Gordon? It's possible PHX jumping the gun on $50m was an informed decision.

Harris's agent is Aaron Mintz.
Warren's is Ty Sullivan
Gordon's is Calvin Andrews

Andrews is with BDA, but both Mintz and Sullivan are CAA. Either way, I really can't see any team offering more than this next summer given multiple factors. Building goodwill and believing in players is worth something, but it definitely just seems like Phoenix bid against themselves though.

[Prospect Dong]

I was thinking Warren sounded like a poor man's Rudy Gay, but their age 23 seasons (4th for Gay, 3rd for Warren) are actually statistically very similar (I threw in Travis Outlaw as well for another defence-last swing forward, his numbers are better)

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Rudy+Gay&player_id1_select=Rudy+Gay&player_id1=gayru01&y1=2010&player_id2_hint=T.J.+Warren&player_id2_select=T.J.+Warren&player_id2=warretj01&y2=2017&player_id3_hint=Travis+Outlaw&player_id3_select=Travis+Outlaw&player_id3=outlatr01&y3=2008

Gay was an acceptable (but not good) three point shooter, and a better defender on a better team by that point. But you could look at those numbers and hope for a Rudy Gay-like trajectory for Warren: good second option on a fairly bad team, interesting but unproven until this season on a good team. He needs to add a three point shots which other teams aren't completely comfortable with letting him take in order to earn time on the court when he's not finishing plays though...

Gay gets a lot of hate on these boards, and he probably never should have gotten that max salary, since he's about 95% of a star with a skillset which becomes exponentially less valuable when you lack the talent to back it up.

[lilfishi22]

1. Those numbers aren’t fantastic. They’re middling.
2. 24 isn’t very young.
3. Nobody is saying let him walk. Just to let the RFA market play out
4. 30/3 isn't the same type of deal as 50/4.

I look at it like this. For a sizeable group of NBA fans, they look at his numbers and the occasional game and think he's overpaid or that we signed him to a bad deal. I agree, the numbers won't blow anything outta the water but they are solid (close to 50% from the field even without a consistent 3PT shot). After PJ Tucker was traded to your team, he posted 17.6/7.7/1bpg/1spg on 56FG%. A 22 year old averaging those numbers to end the season wouldn't sniff anything less than $15m a year. $12.5m takes his age into consideration.

But the Suns have had a better look at Warren, his development and his potential than 29 other teams and certainly most, if not all NBA fans. The Suns like him. Warren likes being in Phoenix and sees a future with this core. There's obviously a mutual respect and willingness to come to an agreement so to me, it makes total sense for the team that drafted him to come to an agreement which works for both parties. I don't see any problem with that at all. Could we have saved a few millions a year if we let him go to RFA? Possibly. Is there a chance he'd get a $15m a year leaving the Suns with a decision to let him walk or pay up? The consensus on the Suns board is that it's a great value deal and it doesn't makes sense to let him go to RFA to take a chance to save a $1-3m or potentially have to match a more expensive deal.

$50m/4, $12.5m a year isn't going to hurt the ever increasing (though slowing) salary cap and I think he's an improving player. Even if I see it as a slight overpay at this point in time, I think there will be a point when his salary (as a % of our cap) and his improving play will cross over and that time will come sooner rather than later imo.

[GimmeDat]

Not that the stats are bad, but I don't think they tell the full story with Warren. When he's been healthy, confident and in rhythm he's a really talented scorer. If he becomes a legitimate 3 point shooter and less of a liability on defense, both of which I think are reasonable possibilities, he will easily outplay this contract.

[Saberestar]

Is he better than Shabazz Mohammed?

Admittedly I haven't paid a lot of attention to him but from what I have seen he is a good scorer, poor defender, terrible from three and can't really play 4.

I don't understand why someone can think that Warren is a poor defender.

Look, Brandon Knight is a poor defender. Devin Booker is for now a poor defender. But Warren? Come on...

Warren is an average defender who has shown flashes of being an above averege defender. That is a big difference from poor defender IMO.

He is solid, not a lockdown defender like Tony Allen, PJ Tucker or Sefolosha, but those guys are paid just for his defense because they are so limited on offense.

With Warren you can have a good two-way player if he just improves a little bit on defense. He is very good in on the ball defense, and he has active hands that create steals. He needs to improve his post defense and team defense, but overall he is OK.

He creates a lof of opportunities on offense without having the ball on his hands because he is really good cutting, slashing and working the offensive glass. He is not a ball hog but he produces points, and that is gold for any team.

Cedric Ceballos is a good comp for him. Ceballos was a better leaper but Warren is a better mid range shooter. Hopefully Warren is even better on his prime.

In this current NBA I think he can play some minutes as a PF, every team play small ball and he is a good rebounder.

[bondom34]

Is he better than Shabazz Mohammed?

Admittedly I haven't paid a lot of attention to him but from what I have seen he is a good scorer, poor defender, terrible from three and can't really play 4.

I don't understand why someone can think that Warren is a poor defender.

Look, Brandon Knight is a poor defender. Devin Booker is for now a poor defender. But Warren? Come on...

Warren is an average defender who has shown flashes of being an above averege defender. That is a big difference from poor defender IMO.

He is solid, not a lockdown defender like Tony Allen, PJ Tucker or Sefolosha, but those guys are paid just for his defense because they are so limited on offense.

With Warren you can have a good two-way player if he just improves a little bit on defense. He is very good in on the ball defense, and he has active hands that create steals. He needs to improve his post defense and team defense, but overall he is OK.

He creates a lof of opportunities on offense without having the ball on his hands because he is really good cutting, slashing and working the offensive glass. He is not a ball hog but he produces points, and that is gold for any team.

Cedric Ceballos is a good comp for him. Ceballos was a better leaper but Warren is a better mid range shooter. Hopefully Warren is even better on his prime.

In this current NBA I think he can play some minutes as a PF, every team play small ball and he is a good rebounder.

By every team metric I've seen he's a terrible defender. RPM and RAPM both are way down, and PHX was over 5 points per 100 worse defensively when he played. His on court D rating was worse than Knight.

[Saberestar]

Is he better than Shabazz Mohammed?

Admittedly I haven't paid a lot of attention to him but from what I have seen he is a good scorer, poor defender, terrible from three and can't really play 4.

I don't understand why someone can think that Warren is a poor defender.

Look, Brandon Knight is a poor defender. Devin Booker is for now a poor defender. But Warren? Come on...

Warren is an average defender who has shown flashes of being an above averege defender. That is a big difference from poor defender IMO.

He is solid, not a lockdown defender like Tony Allen, PJ Tucker or Sefolosha, but those guys are paid just for his defense because they are so limited on offense.

With Warren you can have a good two-way player if he just improves a little bit on defense. He is very good in on the ball defense, and he has active hands that create steals. He needs to improve his post defense and team defense, but overall he is OK.

He creates a lof of opportunities on offense without having the ball on his hands because he is really good cutting, slashing and working the offensive glass. He is not a ball hog but he produces points, and that is gold for any team.

Cedric Ceballos is a good comp for him. Ceballos was a better leaper but Warren is a better mid range shooter. Hopefully Warren is even better on his prime.

In this current NBA I think he can play some minutes as a PF, every team play small ball and he is a good rebounder.

By every team metric I've seen he's a terrible defender. RPM and RAPM both are way down, and PHX was over 5 points per 100 worse defensively when he played. His on court D rating was worse than Knight.

That is why basketball analytics are just a complement to understand a player's value.

Basketball Analytics help, of course, but they do not say the complete story.

[bondom34]

I don't understand why someone can think that Warren is a poor defender.

Look, Brandon Knight is a poor defender. Devin Booker is for now a poor defender. But Warren? Come on...

Warren is an average defender who has shown flashes of being an above averege defender. That is a big difference from poor defender IMO.

He is solid, not a lockdown defender like Tony Allen, PJ Tucker or Sefolosha, but those guys are paid just for his defense because they are so limited on offense.

With Warren you can have a good two-way player if he just improves a little bit on defense. He is very good in on the ball defense, and he has active hands that create steals. He needs to improve his post defense and team defense, but overall he is OK.

He creates a lof of opportunities on offense without having the ball on his hands because he is really good cutting, slashing and working the offensive glass. He is not a ball hog but he produces points, and that is gold for any team.

Cedric Ceballos is a good comp for him. Ceballos was a better leaper but Warren is a better mid range shooter. Hopefully Warren is even better on his prime.

In this current NBA I think he can play some minutes as a PF, every team play small ball and he is a good rebounder.

By every team metric I've seen he's a terrible defender. RPM and RAPM both are way down, and PHX was over 5 points per 100 worse defensively when he played. His on court D rating was worse than Knight.

That is why basketball analytics are just a complement to understand a player's value.

Basketball Analytics help, of course, but they do not say the complet story.

It's not analytics that they're massively worse when he plays, that's a simple fact.

[Rapcity_11]

1. Those numbers aren’t fantastic. They’re middling.
2. 24 isn’t very young.
3. Nobody is saying let him walk. Just to let the RFA market play out
4. 30/3 isn't the same type of deal as 50/4.

I look at it like this. For a sizeable group of NBA fans, they look at his numbers and the occasional game and think he's overpaid or that we signed him to a bad deal. I agree, the numbers won't blow anything outta the water but they are solid (close to 50% from the field even without a consistent 3PT shot). After PJ Tucker was traded to your team, he posted 17.6/7.7/1bpg/1spg on 56FG%. A 22 year old averaging those numbers to end the season wouldn't sniff anything less than $15m a year. $12.5m takes his age into consideration.

But the Suns have had a better look at Warren, his development and his potential than 29 other teams and certainly most, if not all NBA fans. The Suns like him. Warren likes being in Phoenix and sees a future with this core. There's obviously a mutual respect and willingness to come to an agreement so to me, it makes total sense for the team that drafted him to come to an agreement which works for both parties. I don't see any problem with that at all. Could we have saved a few millions a year if we let him go to RFA? Possibly. Is there a chance he'd get a $15m a year leaving the Suns with a decision to let him walk or pay up? The consensus on the Suns board is that it's a great value deal and it doesn't makes sense to let him go to RFA to take a chance to save a $1-3m or potentially have to match a more expensive deal.

$50m/4, $12.5m a year isn't going to hurt the ever increasing (though slowing) salary cap and I think he's an improving player. Even if I see it as a slight overpay at this point in time, I think there will be a point when his salary (as a % of our cap) and his improving play will cross over and that time will come sooner rather than later imo.

This whole, the Suns know him the best and value him accordingly is a weird appeal to authority. NBA teams make mistakes all the time. Especially the teams with poor front-offices, a group in which it’s hard not to include the current Suns management. The fact that the Suns like him doesn’t change my opinion in the slightest, and it shouldn’t change yours. The Knicks like and know Hardaway…that deal is terrible. The Nuggets like and know Plumlee…that deal is terrible. We can go on and on….

The thing with Warren is he basically has to be an elite efficiency scorer to be worth the deal. There’s too many other holes in his game (as many people in this thread have pointed out). And that’s a big ask for a guy who doesn’t really shoot 3’s or draw fouls. He projects as a bench scorer on a good team.

The point about avoiding RFA is a fair one. I think people undersell the importance of goodwill in dealing with FA’s and agents. If teams squeezed every player, nobody would want to sign there.

[lilfishi22]

This whole, the Suns know him the best and value him accordingly is a weird appeal to authority. NBA teams make mistakes all the time. Especially the teams with poor front-offices, a group in which it’s hard not to include the current Suns management. The fact that the Suns like him doesn’t change my opinion in the slightest, and it shouldn’t change yours. The Knicks like and know Hardaway…that deal is terrible. The Nuggets like and know Plumlee…that deal is terrible. We can go on and on….

The thing with Warren is he basically has to be an elite efficiency scorer to be worth the deal. There’s too many other holes in his game (as many people in this thread have pointed out). And that’s a big ask for a guy who doesn’t really shoot 3’s or draw fouls. He projects as a bench scorer on a good team.

The point about avoiding RFA is a fair one. I think people undersell the importance of goodwill in dealing with FA’s and agents. If teams squeezed every player, nobody would want to sign there.

Everything that goes into signing a player shapes my opinion of the signing. From the deal size, terms, player production, projected performance, attitude, chemistry and alignment of goals. So the fact that the Suns like him alone wouldn't change my opinion but that in addition to the reasonable deal, his current level of production, his role within the team and his possible/likely improvements leads me to believe this is a very reasonable deal.

I agree with you in saying he needs to be a scorer with elite efficiency to be worthy of his deal. But I don't think he's that far from it. On top of that, right now he's a super average defender at best and a below average/inconsistent 3PT shooter but if he can make minor improvements in both, I think he'd be well worth the $11.2m he's owed in the following season, the $12.1m he's owed the season after and if he continues to improve, the $26.7m he's owed in 2020-22 should be below market value.

I won't try and change your opinion since it appears it will only likely change once TJ takes his game onto the court and I'm fine with that. I've watched plenty of TJ over the past few seasons and even in a cooler market, I still think what he's been paid is fair and indicative of what our expectations of him going forward is.