2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[Thunder Muscle]

With the playoff hopes on thin ice, discussion around 2018 is likely to start. Figured start a thread on who you expect to be on the roster, players you feel are going to improve/fall off, traded, etc.

OF: I feel like something will happen here. Either they move one of Phillips or Brinson or possibly move Braun to 1B. I don't think Braun has much value unless we eat a ton of that contract which I don't see happening. I also don't think Phillips or Brinson will be shipped back to AAA again. Santana has RF on lockdown I'd think. I wouldn't be shocked if Broxton is moved, or become a platoon CF.

IF: Shaw & Arcia have the left side on lockdown. I suspect they'll try to bring Walker back, but if not they have Villar as a fall back option. If they sign Walker, I think Villar will be moved since I don't see him taking well to a full-time back-up role. 1B will be interesting. Maybe they move Braun there and platoon with Thames. Maybe they roll with Thames/Aguilar again. If they move Braun there, wouldn't be shocked if they try to move Thames and then platoon Aguilar who is cheaper.

C: Assume this will remain status quo. Maybe they don't bring back Vogt.

SP: This is where it will get interesting. I fully expect Anderson, Davies, Woodruff to be 3 of the starters. Hader will maybe be moved back, but I don't know, they may like him in that 2-3 inning bullpen role too. Garza may get a camp invite, but my guess is they move on. They may try to make a move here to get someone. I don't know what we have with Guerra, he may get a shot back into the rotation I suppose. Maybe someone in our farm system makes a leap or gets a shot too.

RP: Probably will try to bring Swarzak back. Rest of the guys are under team control for the most part I think. Probably will take a flyer on some veterans like they did with Feliz this year, which obviously failed. Bullpen actually came around after a horrid start this year. Hader really helped so it will be a void if he is moved to the rotation.

Coaching: Expect the same staff back.

[Thunder Muscle]

Also, as discussed in the other thread, I do fear a possible letdown season next year. I think some teams in the NL may bounce back such as the Mets, Giants, and Cardinals just based on past performance, talent, injuries, etc.

[Kerb Hohl]

The short-term cash on hand will be what interests me.

Do they take a shot at some short-term fill-ins like overpay to keep Walker at 2B or stack the bullpen with some short contracts? Vogt might be kept simply due to having a little bit more $ to spend and they want the platoon mate at C.

Nelson going down is killer. It's possible now that they bring in a Tyler Chatwood or even overpay for someone like Alex Cobb. I'm not saying I agree with it but there's some money to spend (short-term) and they may just take one of those guys and figure it out later. Hopefully Chatwood wouldn't come on too long of a deal if it was him.

Suter is interesting. He's done so well but if he's in the rotation for a full year, they have to be careful to always pull him in the 4th or 5th if he's struggling a bit given that teams can jump on him 2nd/3rd time around. I also still fear some bust chances or maybe just some really down years with him.

Garza probably played himself out of that affordable option, but it is still possible to maybe pick it up and flip him for equally damaged goods somewhere since starting pitching is such a commodity.

[Thunder Muscle]

The short-term cash on hand will be what interests me.

Do they take a shot at some short-term fill-ins like overpay to keep Walker at 2B or stack the bullpen with some short contracts? Vogt might be kept simply due to having a little bit more $ to spend and they want the platoon mate at C.

Nelson going down is killer. It's possible now that they bring in a Tyler Chatwood or even overpay for someone like Alex Cobb. I'm not saying I agree with it but there's some money to spend (short-term) and they may just take one of those guys and figure it out later. Hopefully Chatwood wouldn't come on too long of a deal if it was him.

Suter is interesting. He's done so well but if he's in the rotation for a full year, they have to be careful to always pull him in the 4th or 5th if he's struggling a bit given that teams can jump on him 2nd/3rd time around. I also still fear some bust chances or maybe just some really down years with him.

Garza probably played himself out of that affordable option, but it is still possible to maybe pick it up and flip him for equally damaged goods somewhere since starting pitching is such a commodity.

I agree that they are/may overspend to get a veteran starting pitcher and some bullpen help. I think Attanasio will press the issue, especially with falling just short this year, Nelson injury, etc. Hopefully it works out, but I feel some questionable moves coming up this offseason. Unless Stearns has the power to talk the owner out of them. I do trust Stearns so if it is ultimately his call, maybe they won't do anything crazy.

[coolhandluke121]

Keep Vogt, but try to sign Avila to a 1-year deal and then dump Vogt for organizational depth if you get him.
Thames is okay but shouldn't start so many games. Give Braun about 30-40 of Eric's night starts against rhp's.
With Braun needing day games off, getting hurt a lot, and playing some 1b, there's plenty of starts for the 4th of.
Don't pay full market price for Walker. It would be a reactionary move that you would probably regret.
If Walker accepts an Aramis Ramirez deal, great. Otherwise the prudent thing is to give Villar 1 more chance (and I hate him.)
Keep Sogard if he's cheap and Walker leaves. Otherwise promote Dubon.
Sign Swarzak, Neshek, and Sabathia to 1-year deals, even if they're costly ones.
Sign Chatwood if he doesn't get more than ~$12m per. Prefer Suter in long relief if possible.
Hader stays in the pen.
Get something for Broxton.

Those are my hopes, not my predictions.

[Thunder Muscle]

CC Sabathia, interesting. I don't know if I want to taint my ever lasting impression of the dominant 2008 version.

[coolhandluke121]

CC Sabathia, interesting. I don't know if I want to taint my ever lasting impression of the dominant 2008 version.

Perfect 1-year stopgap for the Nelson injury. Then maybe Nelson comes back or maybe guys like Burnes or Peralta are ready. I don't think he gets 2 years at his age, especially not after conveniently being effective again in his contract year.

I prefer to keep maximum payroll flexibility for the following offseason. Avila, Sabathia, Swarzak, and Neshek will all be hard-pressed to get multiple years at a high salary (age, prior 3-year history, and/or role all being factors), so it would come down to offering very tempting 1-year deals to dissuade them from seeking longer deals at quite a bit less per year.

[BUCKnation]

I think CC would be great. He's coming off a pretty good year and he'd be a perfect guy to have in the clubhouse with a young team.

[trwi7]

Regression candidates

Santana
Shaw
Pina
Phillips
Knebel
Nelson
Anderson
Hader (if moved to the rotation and probably even if he stays in the bullpen)

[Thunder Muscle]

Regression candidates

Santana
Shaw
Pina
Phillips
Knebel
Nelson
Anderson
Hader (if moved to the rotation and probably even if he stays in the bullpen)

And not many guys that could go the other way...

Braun
Villar
Broxton, but think he is odd man out in OF.
Post-April Thames
Guerra

[jute2003]

I think success next year will depend on whether or not they can get a couple quality starting pitchers somewhere. I think the offense will be fine and the pen will still be strong. Nelson getting injured is a killer though. Gotta move foward assuming he's done.

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[El Duderino]

With the playoff hopes on thin ice, discussion around 2018 is likely to start. Figured start a thread on who you expect to be on the roster, players you feel are going to improve/fall off, traded, etc.

OF: I feel like something will happen here. Either they move one of Phillips or Brinson or possibly move Braun to 1B. I don't think Braun has much value unless we eat a ton of that contract which I don't see happening. I also don't think Phillips or Brinson will be shipped back to AAA again. Santana has RF on lockdown I'd think. I wouldn't be shocked if Broxton is moved, or become a platoon CF.

No reason to move either of Brinson or Phillips unless given an offer so good you can't say no.

1. As much as we hope Brinson becomes a star, no prospect is a lock to reach what a team hopes for. Phillips is a hedge in case Brinson ends up not being as good as we hope.

2. Broxton is a much more likely to be traded i believe. He certainly has talent, but i can't ever see him shaking his bizarre inability to make contact with pitches in the strike zone.

3. Braun is injury prone and even when healthy, needs games off regularly. He'll play 100-115 games at most next year.

4. Brinson has had his share of injuries in the minors.

5. That means we'll need a competent 4th outfielder.

Trade Broxton for the best offer received. That opens 162 games in CF and between the 50-60 games Braun is out, along with say 10-15 Santana is rested, that's about 220 games or more that can be shared by Brinson and Phillips.

[Outlander]

Regression candidates

Santana
Shaw
Pina
Phillips
Knebel
Nelson
Anderson
Hader (if moved to the rotation and probably even if he stays in the bullpen)

And not many guys that could go the other way...

Braun
Villar
Broxton, but think he is odd man out in OF.
Post-April Thames
Guerra

Obviously Nelson will regress with the injury but I would say it is more likely than not that Santana/Shaw/Phillips and Hader are more productive next year than this year. Santana just keeps getting better and will only be 25, Hader and Phillips should be with the team from the get go and should be better than what the Brewers were trotting out to start the year. Some would say career year for Shaw but he has struggled in the second half and I think the issue with his daughter is impacting his play. Knebel should still be good but this will probably be the best year of his career. Pina is an old minor league guy so I would agree with regression. Anderson probably career year as well as he showed no signs of this prior to this year. I would imagine Arcia gets better as well.

[coolhandluke121]

Yep. There are lots of candidates for regression, but other than Nelson, nobody jumps out at you as a guy you can't count on. It's not like Guerra and Villar last year. You should probably project slight regression from most of them, but the margin of error in both directions means there's actually a pretty good chance some of them will be just as good if not better. A lot of them have good talent and pedigree. I don't think a lot of them have bad periphals, like Villar's BABIP last year. They're pretty good players, and you don't need superstars in baseball. Also, it's likely that some random guys will have career years, compensating for regression from other players. Would anyone really be shocked if Hernan or Arcia has an OPS over .800 once or twice during their prime? I wouldnt'.

Address a few glaring weaknesses and they could duplicate this year's success even with some regression. Just having Hader, Philllips, Vogt, Swarzak (they should be able to afford him), and Woodruff on the team all year is a big improvement when you consider the alternatives they used at times this year.

[Kerb Hohl]

The more I think about it, the more I wonder if Mark (and maybe even Stearns) may step up and throw some big money around this offseason and next offseason. The one issue is that this is not a great free agent crop. It's also possible that the Brewers could absorb somebody from a rebuilding team.

I have been banging the drum of money being available now but funds being dicey in 2020/2021 and especially keeping our crop in the 2021/2022 offseasons, but I'm rethinking that a bit, especially with twirly's insistence that we have a lot of production out of back-end prime guys right now anyways and the fact that we currently have a lot of good, yet non-elite players. Also, watching Nelson go down reminds us that even the guys that look good right now may regress or suffer career-altering injuries.

Stearns has built a farm system that is going to feed us with useful players for the next 5+ years even if they won't be bringing up elite players every season.

The downside is yet again that we're not giving some guys in our own system chances to grow in certain spots.

This is the argument that can be made for being a bit aggressive (note: I am not suggesting to trade away our farm system for anything, more to spend on veteran player contracts):

Hypothetically, say you sign 2 somewhat expensive relievers, Alex Cobb, Walker this offseason and another relatively large contract next offseason.

The idea of that is that now you're jeopardizing keeping Arcia, Santana, Chase Anderson, Davies, maybe Nelson, etc. in the 2021/2022 timeframe. Brinson/Phillips/Hader aren't even a concern until much after that.

But you've only got a few ways it can go.

-Your free agent signings can be spectacular busts, but you are filling spots of supposed weakness anyways. If Walker falls off the face of the earth in mid-2018, you hopefully can just plug Hiura in anyways. Villar is a strange case, but as it stands right now we don't necessarily have someone there anyways. Sure, signing Alex Cobb may eat into seeing what Suter has in the rotation next year, but there's room for some moves like that.

-If everything goes pretty well but now you reach 2021/2022 and have a crossroads of who to keep, this is somewhat of a good problem to have. If the team is truly contending for titles, Mark may open up the pocketbook and pay to keep as much as he can and go for a $150 million payroll.

-If everything is going well, it may be a blessing in disguise not to be able to keep guys like Shaw. He'll almost be 31/32 when he's hitting free agency. You may want to replace him with the next guy up at that point or if the situation is right, trade him right before free agency.

-It's possible that only half of the current guys we have work out. Maybe you can spend to keep or buy out some free agency on Arcia/Santana and Knebel or Anderson regress anyways and sure, we've overpaid Alex Cobb, but it didn't end up costing us anyone 4 years down the road. We may only want to keep 2 or 3 of the guys coming due in 2021.

-If all of the guys we are counting on right now end up underwhelming the next few years (Santana, Arcia, Hader, Brinson, Woodruff, etc.) and we've overpaid a few free agents, well, we would've sucked anyways and it's Mark's money. We'll be depressed to be hitting 2022 somewhat hitting the reset button and it's not the end of the world if you've got 2 guys that are sitting on 2 years/$30 million on the books. It's a rebuild, they'll be gone when it matters again.

[Turk Nowitzki]

If they want to throw around some money on 1 year deals fair enough. No way am I handing a long term deal to someone like Swarzak.

[Kerb Hohl]

If they want to throw around some money on 1 year deals fair enough. No way am I handing a long term deal to someone like Swarzak.

Yeah, it's not going to be Swarzak. Guys like him will get 1-2 years. I think they may be serious players for Cobb, Lynn, might keep Walker for 3-4 years, etc. even if those guys are going to get overpaid. 2019 may be the better year to dip their foot in the water, though.

[coolhandluke121]

The more I think about it, the more I wonder if Mark (and maybe even Stearns) may step up and throw some big money around this offseason and next offseason. The one issue is that this is not a great free agent crop. It's also possible that the Brewers could absorb somebody from a rebuilding team.

I have been banging the drum of money being available now but funds being dicey in 2020/2021 and especially keeping our crop in the 2021/2022 offseasons, but I'm rethinking that a bit, especially with twirly's insistence that we have a lot of production out of back-end prime guys right now anyways and the fact that we currently have a lot of good, yet non-elite players. Also, watching Nelson go down reminds us that even the guys that look good right now may regress or suffer career-altering injuries.

Stearns has built a farm system that is going to feed us with useful players for the next 5+ years even if they won't be bringing up elite players every season.

The downside is yet again that we're not giving some guys in our own system chances to grow in certain spots.

This is the argument that can be made for being a bit aggressive (note: I am not suggesting to trade away our farm system for anything, more to spend on veteran player contracts):

Hypothetically, say you sign 2 somewhat expensive relievers, Alex Cobb, Walker this offseason and another relatively large contract next offseason.

The idea of that is that now you're jeopardizing keeping Arcia, Santana, Chase Anderson, Davies, maybe Nelson, etc. in the 2021/2022 timeframe. Brinson/Phillips/Hader aren't even a concern until much after that.

But you've only got a few ways it can go.

-Your free agent signings can be spectacular busts, but you are filling spots of supposed weakness anyways. If Walker falls off the face of the earth in mid-2018, you hopefully can just plug Hiura in anyways. Villar is a strange case, but as it stands right now we don't necessarily have someone there anyways. Sure, signing Alex Cobb may eat into seeing what Suter has in the rotation next year, but there's room for some moves like that.

-If everything goes pretty well but now you reach 2021/2022 and have a crossroads of who to keep, this is somewhat of a good problem to have. If the team is truly contending for titles, Mark may open up the pocketbook and pay to keep as much as he can and go for a $150 million payroll.

-If everything is going well, it may be a blessing in disguise not to be able to keep guys like Shaw. He'll almost be 31/32 when he's hitting free agency. You may want to replace him with the next guy up at that point or if the situation is right, trade him right before free agency.

-It's possible that only half of the current guys we have work out. Maybe you can spend to keep or buy out some free agency on Arcia/Santana and Knebel or Anderson regress anyways and sure, we've overpaid Alex Cobb, but it didn't end up costing us anyone 4 years down the road. We may only want to keep 2 or 3 of the guys coming due in 2021.

-If all of the guys we are counting on right now end up underwhelming the next few years (Santana, Arcia, Hader, Brinson, Woodruff, etc.) and we've overpaid a few free agents, well, we would've sucked anyways and it's Mark's money. We'll be depressed to be hitting 2022 somewhat hitting the reset button and it's not the end of the world if you've got 2 guys that are sitting on 2 years/$30 million on the books. It's a rebuild, they'll be gone when it matters again.

All good points. They have a lot of good, not great, players in the prime. The thing about baseball is that's perfectly fine. Personally I don't see a reason to be discontent with the roster just because there are no stars. Seattle once lost A-Rod, Griffey Jr., and Big Unit in rapid succession and proceeded to win 116 games.

As for free agency, I don't think there's enough high-upside moves out there to justify spending. There's a great chance Walker will be dead weight by the end of his next deal, for example. Furthermore, the balance and depth of the team makes it harder to be sure you're getting an upgrade in free agency unless you're getting premium guys. Honestly there's still a chance Villar out-WARs Walker over the next 3 years, and Walker is one of the most obvious upgrade possibilities out there. Upside can also be measured by how close you are to contending. I enjoy this team immensely but we're probably not looking at any potential "put us over the top" moves out there.

I think sticking to 1 or 2 year deals leaves open the greatest possible flexibility and ability to adapt to unexpected circumstances, and the opportunity cost is not that high because you're not missing much in free agency. Just enjoy any continued unexpected success and make the most of the assets you've developed. Lastly, I prefer 1-year deals because I want a puncher's chance at some of the great free agents after next season. That speaks to my point about not resorting to free agency unless you're sure you're getting an upgrade. Machado is my dream free agent, thus moving Shaw to 1b and trading Thames for some value if he hits in the high 800's again next year.

[coolhandluke121]

If they want to throw around some money on 1 year deals fair enough. No way am I handing a long term deal to someone like Swarzak.

Relievers with one year of success don't generally command long-term deals. Just offer him a nice 1-year deal as long as you've got such a low payroll. Maybe like 1/$7m to compete with the 2/$10m offers he might get. I could be way off on those numbers as reliever salaries and trade value are pretty volatile, but that's the principle I'd go by this winter.

[Kerb Hohl]

I do agree that if they're going to get something, waiting on 2019 makes some sense.

I do think that, to twirly's delight, we may need to hit free agency to add more good players (maybe an elite player, but it may be a fleeting effort).

We have an army of good players on the team and probably coming up in the system, but I think a lot has to go right. Maybe Shaw and Santana play even better next year and Villar is "back" but Brinson/Phillips are massive busts in their true rookie season, Davies/Knebel regress, and Nelson never gets back to what he was and his rotation spot next year is a black hole.

Maybe adding Lynn or Cobb to the rotation giving you hopefully a rotation where you think all 5 guys are legitimately good all year or going crazy and adding Machado next year is what gets you a complete roster. I know I'll get stuff thrown at me because it is a 99.9% certainty that those guys will be albatross contracts 3/4 of the way through their contracts, but even good smaller market teams have those. They may have to take a risk at some point.