Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXIV

[TGW]

"50 zillion shots"....lol that sounds a bit exaggerated, don't you think? It was closer to 50 billion.

[gambitx777]

So its almost october and our starting PF is out for 6-8 weeks.... whats the panic trade gona be? LA? someone else ?

[payitforward]

So its almost october and our starting PF is out for 6-8 weeks.... whats the panic trade gona be? LA? someone else ?

Who you want to give a R1 pick for today, gamby?

(just joking... don't take offense)

[gambitx777]

So its almost october and our starting PF is out for 6-8 weeks.... whats the panic trade gona be? LA? someone else ?

Who you want to give a R1 pick for today, gamby?

(just joking... don't take offense)

I never would mate!
I'm thinking.
Ian and chris and a 2018 second and cash to the bucks for parker and henson. Then need a true D center off the bench and they seem to have given up on henson and parker has had health issues.
If we can talk them in to this it does a few things for us.
gets us out of that contract way early. henson should be good enough to be a serviceable enough backup, he will at least be better than an Ian who can play because he blows out his (insert body part here) in the 7th game of the year. Parker is interesting, if healthy hes decent enough, he mahinmi at the PF position in essence but only paid 6.7 mill. He might also be retained cheap too! But he should be serviceable enough till morris gets back and worst case hes a cap dump.

[Ruzious]

Parker's contract issues would make him a non-starter (so to speak) for the Wiz. He's looking to get paid, so I'm guessing he accepts the 1 year tender and then tries to make a fortune next offseason, and that would put the Wiz in the lux tax.

The good thing about Henson is that he's got a declining contract, but his play has also declined. And his lack of range would make it very difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi.

[gambitx777]

Parker's contract issues would make him a non-starter (so to speak) for the Wiz. He's looking to get paid, so I'm guessing he accepts the 1 year tender and then tries to make a fortune next offseason, and that would put the Wiz in the lux tax.

The good thing about Henson is that he's got a declining contract, but his play has also declined. And his lack of range would make it very difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi.

#1 its essentially a salary dump with the potential to gain some player assets. If parker wants to much money you let him walk end of story not tears shed, Plus we are already in the tax so it really doesnt matter. Also Henson is listed as a PF but he is a true center and plays center for the buck more often than not, he doesnt need ranges, he has good inside scoring ability and good rebounding and D hes not amazing but as a back up center or to split time with gortat, he doesn't have to be amazing. Also this ultimately saves us money because parker might not be work resigning, and if he is **** it we are allowed to go into the tax to do so, with his rights, also the mans to injury prone to be getting huge mega deals, the caps no increasing than much and there is not going to be any more crazy wind falls of cash coming anytime soon. He might take a 4-40 or 4 for 48 or 3 for 30 or 3 for 36. type del with opt outs. But it gets rid of mahinmi. thats what matters. Parker as injury prone as he is, is a one year deal and we can get out of it if needed. Plus if resigned with his issues, i don't see him getting 16 a year or better i see him taking some cash from us guaranteed in case he blows out a knee again.

[payitforward]

This kind of "course correction" deal is not what Ernie does. Moreover, because of our repeated failure to acquire & develop young talent in the last 4 years (Oubre & that's it), we are in so much salary trouble going forward that even though this deal might help it wouldn't help enough.

Next year we have almost $113m committed to 7 players. Two other guys have player options they'll pick up, which will bring us to $122m. Add Oubre & a R1 pick -- call it $127m for 11 guys. & that's without a backup PG, btw. Add Frazier or the equivalent to get to $130m, & you can count on the barrel scrapings coming along for the ride as well (McCullough, Sheldon, Ochefu...). @ $136m.

& the year after it's worse -- much worse! $108m committed to 4 guys.

Ted's given Ernie some rope, obviously, but he isn't going to want to pay the tax forever! Plus the farther into tax territory the higher the % bite it is, & the more years in a row you're in ditto: the %'s go up.

So.... I think Ernie is all in for this year. No thinking any longer term than right now. & when the sh#t is about to hit the fan... he'll retire!

[Sluggerface]

This kind of "course correction" deal is not what Ernie does. Moreover, because of our repeated failure to acquire & develop young talent in the last 4 years (Oubre & that's it), we are in so much salary trouble going forward that even though this deal might help it wouldn't help enough.

Next year we have almost $113m committed to 7 players. Two other guys have player options they'll pick up, which will bring us to $122m. Add Oubre & a R1 pick -- call it $127m for 11 guys. & that's without a backup PG, btw. Add Frazier or the equivalent to get to $130m, & you can count on the barrel scrapings coming along for the ride as well (McCullough, Sheldon, Ochefu...). @ $136m.

& the year after it's worse -- much worse! $108m committed to 4 guys.

Ted's given Ernie some rope, obviously, but he isn't going to want to pay the tax forever! Plus the farther into tax territory the higher the % bite it is, & the more years in a row you're in ditto: the %'s go up.

So.... I think Ernie is all in for this year. No thinking any longer term than right now. & when the sh#t is about to hit the fan... he'll retire!

That actually doesn't sound that bad with the latest projections. 108 could possibly be the cap in 2020. They could probably pay for two more good players and stay under the tax.

Agree that it's a **** situation though. It's basically hoping that guys like Oubre/Satoransky/Mac pan out or *shudder* they get lucky in the back end of the draft.

[nate33]

I'm assuming the Wizards will try to make a run at Demarcus Cousins at the Trade Deadline if the two towers lineup fails in New Orleans. Looking at the roster composition, the only way it really makes sense is if we jettisoned the salaries of both Gortat and Mahinmi in the process. Those guys get paid too much to play just 14 minutes a game behind Cousins. The problem is, no team wants two expensive centers. So the trick is to "launder" one of them through a 3rd party.

Looking at the league, I think Boston might be the best trade partner in a Gortat trade. They're a win-now team that is thin at center, and Horford can play PF for stretches so that Gortat could still play 25-30 minutes a game and justify his salary.

Washington trades:
Marcin Gortat + Ian Mahinmi --> Demarcus Cousins + Omer Asik

Boston trades:
Ayon Baynes + Marcus Morris --> Marcin Gortat

New Orleans trades:
Demarcus Cousins + Omer Asik --> Ian Mahinmi + Marcus Morris + Ayon Baynes

Why for Washington:
We get Cousins while keeping our long term salary structure in decent shape. Next year will be a nasty luxtax payment when Cousins signs a new max contract, but then Asik comes off the books in Summer of 2019.

Why for Boston:
Assuming Hayward, Tatum and Brown are doing well at the forward spot, Boston gets a chance here to upgrade their center position without really sacrificing anything. Gortat would spare Horford from having to log 36 minutes a night at center.

Why for New Orleans:
The assumption here is that they don't want to resign Cousins at $30M a year and Cousins has offered a pretty short list of teams where he'd willingly resign if traded there (with Washington being on the list). With a small universe of suitors, his trade value is low. New Orleans manages to get 2 competent players (Mahinmi and Morris) and an expiring contract (Baynes) while also dumping Asik's $12M contract. A Washington 1st round pick could be included if necessary, but I'm not sure it would be.

[Ruzious]

Parker's contract issues would make him a non-starter (so to speak) for the Wiz. He's looking to get paid, so I'm guessing he accepts the 1 year tender and then tries to make a fortune next offseason, and that would put the Wiz in the lux tax.

The good thing about Henson is that he's got a declining contract, but his play has also declined. And his lack of range would make it very difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi.

#1 its essentially a salary dump with the potential to gain some player assets. If parker wants to much money you let him walk end of story not tears shed, Plus we are already in the tax so it really doesnt matter. Also Henson is listed as a PF but he is a true center and plays center for the buck more often than not, he doesnt need ranges, he has good inside scoring ability and good rebounding and D hes not amazing but as a back up center or to split time with gortat, he doesn't have to be amazing. Also this ultimately saves us money because parker might not be work resigning, and if he is **** it we are allowed to go into the tax to do so, with his rights, also the mans to injury prone to be getting huge mega deals, the caps no increasing than much and there is not going to be any more crazy wind falls of cash coming anytime soon. He might take a 4-40 or 4 for 48 or 3 for 30 or 3 for 36. type del with opt outs. But it gets rid of mahinmi. thats what matters. Parker as injury prone as he is, is a one year deal and we can get out of it if needed. Plus if resigned with his issues, i don't see him getting 16 a year or better i see him taking some cash from us guaranteed in case he blows out a knee again.

Unless something's happened that I haven't heard, the Wiz are not in the lux tax. And if they are, of course it matters, because the tax is a 100% tax - making every dollar you go over the tax doubled. And you don't trade what it'd take to get Parker unless you have long-term plans to keep him. I agree that Henson is just a center - that's why I said it would be difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi. And Mahinmi doesn't have trade value.

[gambitx777]

Parker's contract issues would make him a non-starter (so to speak) for the Wiz. He's looking to get paid, so I'm guessing he accepts the 1 year tender and then tries to make a fortune next offseason, and that would put the Wiz in the lux tax.

The good thing about Henson is that he's got a declining contract, but his play has also declined. And his lack of range would make it very difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi.

#1 its essentially a salary dump with the potential to gain some player assets. If parker wants to much money you let him walk end of story not tears shed, Plus we are already in the tax so it really doesnt matter. Also Henson is listed as a PF but he is a true center and plays center for the buck more often than not, he doesnt need ranges, he has good inside scoring ability and good rebounding and D hes not amazing but as a back up center or to split time with gortat, he doesn't have to be amazing. Also this ultimately saves us money because parker might not be work resigning, and if he is **** it we are allowed to go into the tax to do so, with his rights, also the mans to injury prone to be getting huge mega deals, the caps no increasing than much and there is not going to be any more crazy wind falls of cash coming anytime soon. He might take a 4-40 or 4 for 48 or 3 for 30 or 3 for 36. type del with opt outs. But it gets rid of mahinmi. thats what matters. Parker as injury prone as he is, is a one year deal and we can get out of it if needed. Plus if resigned with his issues, i don't see him getting 16 a year or better i see him taking some cash from us guaranteed in case he blows out a knee again.

Unless something's happened that I haven't heard, the Wiz are not in the lux tax. And if they are, of course it matters, because the tax is a 100% tax - making every dollar you go over the tax doubled. And you don't trade what it'd take to get Parker unless you have long-term plans to keep him. I agree that Henson is just a center - that's why I said it would be difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi. And Mahinmi doesn't have trade value.

#1 the only trade value parker has is for his 6 mill cheap expiring deal, that's about it. the only real value for henson is also his contract.
#2 Ian does not have a lot of trade value, but ever mans trash could be another mans treasure. A big D centric center off the bench is what that team needs and what that team lacks. ian is a perfect fit for that bench, and adding a second round pick and a young player, i believe i added chris in this deal, for two guys you are really not keen on for a piece that can help you is huge.
#3 parker and henson while they don't have a lot of trade value, do to injuries and effort issues. a change of team and locker rooms can help with those things. with the exception of Ian our medical staff is pretty solid and we have a really strong locker room i think. Its at least a trade worth looking into
#4 we are currently sitting at 7 million over the tax.

[gambitx777]

This kind of "course correction" deal is not what Ernie does. Moreover, because of our repeated failure to acquire & develop young talent in the last 4 years (Oubre & that's it), we are in so much salary trouble going forward that even though this deal might help it wouldn't help enough.

I 100% agree with you piff. But isn't a little relief better than none at all ? I guess in my head if we can get two players under 30 on decent deals by moving Chris, ian and a second. even if one has some effort issues and the other has bad knees it works out in the wash because if the one with bad knees gets healthy hes a decent player if not hes cap relief, and the effort issues guy could be corrected with a different staff and a better locker room. I agree with you though, its not enough, it would make us better but the only way to truly fix this team would be to total rebuild and trade everything and everyone. and go full on 76ers. but thats not happening so we need to make the best of it in my opinion.

[Ruzious]

#1 its essentially a salary dump with the potential to gain some player assets. If parker wants to much money you let him walk end of story not tears shed, Plus we are already in the tax so it really doesnt matter. Also Henson is listed as a PF but he is a true center and plays center for the buck more often than not, he doesnt need ranges, he has good inside scoring ability and good rebounding and D hes not amazing but as a back up center or to split time with gortat, he doesn't have to be amazing. Also this ultimately saves us money because parker might not be work resigning, and if he is **** it we are allowed to go into the tax to do so, with his rights, also the mans to injury prone to be getting huge mega deals, the caps no increasing than much and there is not going to be any more crazy wind falls of cash coming anytime soon. He might take a 4-40 or 4 for 48 or 3 for 30 or 3 for 36. type del with opt outs. But it gets rid of mahinmi. thats what matters. Parker as injury prone as he is, is a one year deal and we can get out of it if needed. Plus if resigned with his issues, i don't see him getting 16 a year or better i see him taking some cash from us guaranteed in case he blows out a knee again.

Unless something's happened that I haven't heard, the Wiz are not in the lux tax. And if they are, of course it matters, because the tax is a 100% tax - making every dollar you go over the tax doubled. And you don't trade what it'd take to get Parker unless you have long-term plans to keep him. I agree that Henson is just a center - that's why I said it would be difficult to play him with Gortat or Mahinmi. And Mahinmi doesn't have trade value.

#1 the only trade value parker has is for his 6 mill cheap expiring deal, that's about it. the only real value for henson is also his contract.
#2 Ian does not have a lot of trade value, but ever mans trash could be another mans treasure. A big D centric center off the bench is what that team needs and what that team lacks. ian is a perfect fit for that bench, and adding a second round pick and a young player, i believe i added chris in this deal, for two guys you are really not keen on for a piece that can help you is huge.
#3 parker and henson while they don't have a lot of trade value, do to injuries and effort issues. a change of team and locker rooms can help with those things. with the exception of Ian our medical staff is pretty solid and we have a really strong locker room i think. Its at least a trade worth looking into
#4 we are currently sitting at 7 million over the tax.

Parker's got a lot of value to the Bucks. It makes no sense for them to basically give him away unless they think he won't stay healthy, and the Wiz basically don't have anything of value to trade. There's no match there.

[payitforward]

Unless something's happened that I haven't heard, the Wiz are not in the lux tax. And if they are, of course it matters, because the tax is a 100% tax - making every dollar you go over the tax doubled....

The luxury tax line is at @#119.2m this year.

Right now we have 13 guaranteed salaries adding up to $123.5m. Doesn't include Sloan, Ochefu, Mac & Felix. Keeping two of those guys brings us to 15 & takes our salary to $126m+.

Now, our luxury tax obligation doesn't get calculated until... the trade deadline? End of regular season? (can't remember). So there's time. But, I don't see a practical way to bring it down.

[payitforward]

Next year, Wall/Porter/Beal will cost us a combined $70.6m. Were we to trade for Cousins, who is expiring, I think we can assume it'd cost us $25m / year to keep him. That would make it @$96m for 4 players next year.

But, that's nothing: the following year we'd be at $122m for 4 players (Wall, Beal, Porter, Cousins), and unless we gave Oubre no more than his qualifying offer, the outflow is even more stratospheric.

I look forward to hearing how this is going to work (not).

[Ruzious]

Unless something's happened that I haven't heard, the Wiz are not in the lux tax. And if they are, of course it matters, because the tax is a 100% tax - making every dollar you go over the tax doubled....

The luxury tax line is at @#119.2m this year.

Right now we have 13 guaranteed salaries adding up to $123.5m. Doesn't include Sloan, Ochefu, Mac & Felix. Keeping two of those guys brings us to 15 & takes our salary to $126m+.

Now, our luxury tax obligation doesn't get calculated until... the trade deadline? End of regular season? (can't remember). So there's time. But, I don't see a practical way to bring it down.

It's the roster at the end of the season.

Yeah, I've been paying less attention to the Wiz. And it makes NO sense to add to the salary (if you're the owner), because there's a 100% tax on every dollar over the cap.

[dangermouse]

I'm assuming the Wizards will try to make a run at Demarcus Cousins at the Trade Deadline if the two towers lineup fails in New Orleans. Looking at the roster composition, the only way it really makes sense is if we jettisoned the salaries of both Gortat and Mahinmi in the process. Those guys get paid too much to play just 14 minutes a game behind Cousins. The problem is, no team wants two expensive centers. So the trick is to "launder" one of them through a 3rd party.

Looking at the league, I think Boston might be the best trade partner in a Gortat trade. They're a win-now team that is thin at center, and Horford can play PF for stretches so that Gortat could still play 25-30 minutes a game and justify his salary.

Washington trades:
Marcin Gortat + Ian Mahinmi --> Demarcus Cousins + Omer Asik

Boston trades:
Ayon Baynes + Marcus Morris --> Marcin Gortat

New Orleans trades:
Demarcus Cousins + Omer Asik --> Ian Mahinmi + Marcus Morris + Ayon Baynes

Why for Washington:
We get Cousins while keeping our long term salary structure in decent shape. Next year will be a nasty luxtax payment when Cousins signs a new max contract, but then Asik comes off the books in Summer of 2019.

Why for Boston:
Assuming Hayward, Tatum and Brown are doing well at the forward spot, Boston gets a chance here to upgrade their center position without really sacrificing anything. Gortat would spare Horford from having to log 36 minutes a night at center.

Why for New Orleans:
The assumption here is that they don't want to resign Cousins at $30M a year and Cousins has offered a pretty short list of teams where he'd willingly resign if traded there (with Washington being on the list). With a small universe of suitors, his trade value is low. New Orleans manages to get 2 competent players (Mahinmi and Morris) and an expiring contract (Baynes) while also dumping Asik's $12M contract. A Washington 1st round pick could be included if necessary, but I'm not sure it would be.

Dream scenario for us. Maybe not a wet dream, but our boxers would be lightly soiled. Ted on the other hand, not the best position, wallet wise. Especially since we're one of the teams who apparently lost money last year. Although, we'd have to be Eastern conference title contenders.

Just wanted to explore the possibility of us actually landing Cousins in a trade a little more. Whats his list of teams he would sign with look like?

Boston would obviously have interest, but did they blow their wad on Kyrie? Have they the kind of assets to trump us in a deal? If the Lakers were on his list I imagine they would have us beat with what they could offer.

[Sluggerface]

There's no way Boston agrees imo. Any scenario that lands us boogie without giving up Beal or Porter gives Washington free reign of the East for the foreseeable future. Just can't see Ainge contributing to that for a minor upgrade.

[Ruzious]

And as PIF alluded to, creating that big 4 would not be affordable. No chance that Ted would pay that much in lux tax, and there'd be no roster maneuvarability to create an adequate bench. It makes no sense and isn't workable.

Going forward, the Wiz are going to have to make good use of draft picks. Actually do some work on evaluating players and look into buying 2nd rounders. That's how they can improve in the Wall/Beal/Porter era. They've basically wasted the last 2 drafts and can't continue to do so. It's nice that they've given some undrafted free agents a chance, but high second round picks are a much better use of resources and are much more likely to improve the team. If GS can buy Jordan Bell... and no GM wants to see GS get stronger... why can't the Wiz make moves like that? It costs some money (but cap-free money) up front, but that helps you get out of the lux tax. Stay where you are and buy picks.

[payitforward]

...Going forward, the Wiz are going to have to make good use of draft picks. Actually do some work on evaluating players and look into buying 2nd rounders. That's how they can improve in the Wall/Beal/Porter era. They've basically wasted the last 2 drafts and can't continue to do so. It's nice that they've given some undrafted free agents a chance, but high second round picks are a much better use of resources and are much more likely to improve the team. If GS can buy Jordan Bell... and no GM wants to see GS get stronger... why can't the Wiz make moves like that? It costs some money (but cap-free money) up front, but that helps you get out of the lux tax. Stay where you are and buy picks.

Yes, & (if I can point it out w/o seeming to blow my own horn) this is what I've been saying over & over for a couple of years now.

Ernie hasn't made even one outstanding move since the 2010 draft -- now 7 years. Not one. We are a pretty good team because & only because the ping pong balls moved us to #1 that year & to #3 in 2013.

Given those 2 pieces of luck, it's kind of mind-blowing to think about how good this team would be if he'd just made 2 good draft picks -- Kawhi Leonard instead of Vesely in 2011 & Draymond Green instead of Sato in 2012.

Then there is Kenneth Faried instead of Singleton & Chandler Parsons instead of Mack in 2011. Oh, & how about not letting Trevor Booker walk (while keeping Seraphin)? & not giving away a lower R2 pick in 2012 & thereby missing on Kyle O'Quinn. All guys I wanted... Of course at a certain point it's just fantasy, because you no longer have picks in those spots if you picked well a few previous years in a row.

But, nothing stops a GM from buying high R2 picks. The smart ones understand that the 31st pick is actually a more valuable asset than the 30th. I hope the reason is obvious.

Ruz, you mention GS buying the pick that got them Jordan Bell. They are paying Jordan Bell $815K this year; next year he'll cost them under $1.4m; the following year it's $1.8m.

That's $4m for 3 years. This year we are paying Mike Scott $1.5m - equal to to $4.5m/3 years. Anyone who wouldn't prefer to have Jordan Bell over Mike Scott....

The previous year, btw, GS bought the high R2 pick that got them Patrick McCaw -- he played almost 1100 minutes for them as a rookie last year. He played better than any shooting guard we have not named Bradley Beal.