2018 Brewers Discussion - Yelich Signing on Page 45

[wichmae]

The MLB is still a major crapshoot and there is little reason to tank just for the draft. The Brewers rebuild will ultimately succeed or fail because of trades they made for prospects after everybody could somewhat see what these guys could do. While there will be draft picks that end up helping the big league club there will be a large assortment of higher and lower drafted players and the high draft pick of Corey Ray isn't looking real good right now. A case could be made that just as much money and resources should be spent internationally but when they do spend big they end up with Gilbert Lara. In the future Stearns will have to continue to trade guys high to sustain success but it is not as easy to trade a Thornburg or Will Smith type player when expectations or high much less a higher profile guy like Lucroy/Gomez. Just a brief summary of young players that are on the team now or are expected to have a role within the next year or so:

Orlando Arcia - Signed as a 16 year old by the Brewers
Domingo Santana - Signed as 16 year old by the Phillies, acquired by Brewers in trade
Freddy Peralta - Signed as a 17 year old with Mariners, acquired by Brewers in trade
Josh Hader - Picked in 19th round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Zach Davies - Picked in 26th round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Brandon Woodruff - 11th round pick by Brewers
Corey Knebel - Supplemental pick after 1st round by Tigers, acquired by Brewers in trade
Lewis Brinson - Picked in 1st round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Brett Phillips - Picked in 6th round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Corbin Burnes - 4th round pick by Brewers

Again like Ive said previously the draft changed completely two years ago. Its not only about picking high but about the pool money. Ray was an under slot sign and that large pool allowed us to draft and sign Payton Henry, Francisco Thomas, Chad Mclanahan, Zach Clark, and Blake Lillis. Its very difficult to contrast and compare pre 2016 team building to now because of the way the system is set up. This is why youve never saw tanking really pre-2016 ever in baseball. Now you have teams like CHI, SD, and DET now to some extent really not trying to win on the big club.
Pre 2016 you often saw the top guys slip because of the massive tax bill that came along with them (signability). Benintendi, Judge, Piscotty, and Stroman are all examples of where teams that had the ability to pay the tax bill of a big over slot could draft and pay their crazy demands. Its really tough to not be enticed by building home grown drafted kids by allocating the most resources to affect the amateur market.

[El Duderino]

The MLB is still a major crapshoot and there is little reason to tank just for the draft. The Brewers rebuild will ultimately succeed or fail because of trades they made for prospects after everybody could somewhat see what these guys could do. While there will be draft picks that end up helping the big league club there will be a large assortment of higher and lower drafted players and the high draft pick of Corey Ray isn't looking real good right now. A case could be made that just as much money and resources should be spent internationally but when they do spend big they end up with Gilbert Lara. In the future Stearns will have to continue to trade guys high to sustain success but it is not as easy to trade a Thornburg or Will Smith type player when expectations or high much less a higher profile guy like Lucroy/Gomez. Just a brief summary of young players that are on the team now or are expected to have a role within the next year or so:

Orlando Arcia - Signed as a 16 year old by the Brewers
Domingo Santana - Signed as 16 year old by the Phillies, acquired by Brewers in trade
Freddy Peralta - Signed as a 17 year old with Mariners, acquired by Brewers in trade
Josh Hader - Picked in 19th round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Zach Davies - Picked in 26th round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Brandon Woodruff - 11th round pick by Brewers
Corey Knebel - Supplemental pick after 1st round by Tigers, acquired by Brewers in trade
Lewis Brinson - Picked in 1st round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Brett Phillips - Picked in 6th round, acquired by Brewers in trade
Corbin Burnes - 4th round pick by Brewers

Again like Ive said previously the draft changed completely two years ago. Its not only about picking high but about the pool money.

Obviously any team would rather being picking say 5th instead of 15th, 20th, or 30th, that goes without saying. I think his point though is that there are other avenues to keep adding quality prospects to the farm system besides just drafting high. Tougher drafting later, but far from impossible. This is where good GM's and scouting directors earn their money, with some luck mixed in.

[trwi7]

The Brewers star problem.

http://disciplesofuecker.com/the-brewers-star-problem/27328

It's nice that Stearns can find all these 2 WAR guys but that's not going to matter unless we get the 5-7 WAR guys as a core. That's why I've been banging the drum on tanking and drafting high. Yeah, you can trade for an established star and gut your farm system or you can try to trade for a prospect who might become a star but chances are you're going to need a contender with those types of prospects and a current star player to trade them. You can try to get one in free agency but chances are you're going to be outbid. So what option are you left with? Sucking for a few years, getting as much bonus pool money as you can and drafting them yourself.

Instead of searching out all these 2 WAR guys, we should've been finding a bunch of scrubs to play and then supplementing our drafts with trades of stupid teams like the Braves acquiring Luiz Gohara for next to nothing or when the Braves got Toussaint for taking Arroyo's contract. Knowing that you have the competency to get 2 WAR players to fill in around stars when you actually need to is good. Doing it before you need to prevents you from getting those 5-7 WAR players that you need to build a contender.

[coolhandluke121]

In order to consistently be a contender, they do need more high-WAR guys. It's hard to find upgrades when you've already got a bunch of 2-3 WAR guys. But those guys can be found in lots of places. Guys like Lucroy (if you buy the pitch-framing arguments) and Gomez were some of the highest WAR guys in all of baseball in their prime. It's not like the NBA that way. Also, we saw for years what happens when you have a few high-WAR guys but not nearly enough 2-3 WAR guys, and on average it was worse than this year. Baseball is definitely more about depth and balance, and if you're that close to making the playoffs, you're almost a contender by definition in baseball because the best team doesn't always win a series. And we could be sitting on a lot of 3-4 WAR guys, which changes the argument a lot.

If they had clearly been a fluke, I would have been screaming to sell high as much as anyone. I think this is the nucleus of a pretty consistent 85-win team with a little tinkering though. It's a win-win situation with all their solid guys in their primes or close to it and their payroll flexibility. There's downside to tanking too, as it's pretty hard to project draft picks and it's usually a long time before they even get to the majors, unlike the NFL or NBA. The nature of the sport is just very different. It's fairly rare to be able to piece together a team this good without any stars, but the Brewers have been planning for this for years now so maybe it's an indication of being able to take a more complex, intricate route to building a good team than what a typical NBA contender does. Gotta give them some credit for achieving what they did this year.

The probability of depleting your own talent base by trading a bunch of guys now could outweigh the improved probability of getting stars in the draft. When both routes make sense, ties go to living in the present.

[bizarro]

The starter for me in any of these conversations is the reality that Ned Yost has managed a WS winning team. To me, that trumps all probabilities and or rational outcomes. If Ned Yost can command a WS championship...I'm prepared to accept any rose-colored view for a David Stearns led Brewers organization.

[coolhandluke121]

Also, it's not like we're talking about a bunch of 2-3 WAR guys in their last year of arbitration or anything. I would support selling guys like that and following the A's model, but most of them are only in their 1st year, if that. When you're saving that much money, you can't just dismiss big free agent acquisitions as overpays, because you can afford to overpay. I'd rather they waste money than time. I'm not a cliche "yolo" sheep by any stretch of the imagination, but it's okay to live in the present.

[BUCKnation]

Agree with Twirl's logic about not having that one stud. I went back to the 08 and 11 seasons to see what was different because I felt that overall this year's team was deeper and the lineup day to day was always solid on paper so the struggles kind of befuddled me. Besides the RISP numbers which are obvious, one thing that stood out with the previous teams was having players hit that 5-ish WAR territory or in 2011 having prime Fielder and Braun hit 7.8 and 4.6 respectively. This year's high was 4.0 with Shaw and Anderson.

WAR isn't everything obviously, but I thought it was an interesting difference.

[wichmae]

In order to consistently be a contender, they do need more high-WAR guys. It's hard to find upgrades when you've already got a bunch of 2-3 WAR guys. But those guys can be found in lots of places. Guys like Lucroy (if you buy the pitch-framing arguments) and Gomez were some of the highest WAR guys in all of baseball in their prime. It's not like the NBA that way. Also, we saw for years what happens when you have a few high-WAR guys but not nearly enough 2-3 WAR guys, and on average it was worse than this year. Baseball is definitely more about depth and balance, and if you're that close to making the playoffs, you're almost a contender by definition in baseball because the best team doesn't always win a series. And we could be sitting on a lot of 3-4 WAR guys, which changes the argument a lot.

If they had clearly been a fluke, I would have been screaming to sell high as much as anyone. I think this is the nucleus of a pretty consistent 85-win team with a little tinkering though. It's a win-win situation with all their solid guys in their primes or close to it and their payroll flexibility. There's downside to tanking too, as it's pretty hard to project draft picks and it's usually a long time before they even get to the majors, unlike the NFL or NBA. The nature of the sport is just very different. It's fairly rare to be able to piece together a team this good without any stars, but the Brewers have been planning for this for years now so maybe it's an indication of being able to take a more complex, intricate route to building a good team than what a typical NBA contender does. Gotta give them some credit for achieving what they did this year.

The probability of depleting your own talent base by trading a bunch of guys now could outweigh the improved probability of getting stars in the draft. When both routes make sense, ties go to living in the present.

Im sorry I just dont think theres a ton of truth to this. Right now only going 4 years back. Kris Bryant, Jon Gray, Clint Frazier, Rodon, Schwarber, Nola, Freeland, Hoffman, Conforto, Bregman, Swanson, Happ, and Benintendi all are contributing on the MLB level and some pretty significantly. All were picked in the top 10. Sure you have the HS guys who were drafted and obviously have no chance of making an MLB roster so soon and yes there were a few busts in there with Colin Moran, Mark Appel, and Tyler Jay (injury). But there is a significant sway towards success in high end talent in the top 10 especially at the collegiate draftee level.

[coolhandluke121]

The top of the draft might be good, but there's so many really good players who are drafted later. I don't think the correlation between draft position and productivity is as strong as it is in the NBA, the quintessential tanking league. More importantly, although clearly you need lots of talent in any sport, baseball is not as superstar-driven as basketball or even football, where qb's make such a huge difference even when there's over 50 guys on the team. Look at how the Mariners lost A-Rod, Griffey Jr., and Randy Johnson in such a short time span and then won 116 games. That just wouldn't happen in basketball.

[wichmae]

The top of the draft might be good, but there's so many really good players who are drafted later. I don't think the correlation between draft position and productivity is as strong as it is in the NBA, the quintessential tanking league. More importantly, although clearly you need lots of talent in any sport, baseball is not as superstar-driven as basketball or even football, where qb's make such a huge difference even when there's over 50 guys on the team. Look at how the Mariners lost A-Rod, Griffey Jr., and Randy Johnson in such a short time span and then won 116 games. That just wouldn't happen in basketball.

I think the disagreement lies in the probability of getting impact talent via the college level and signable versus hitting on a HS kid. We'll see this again next season with the way drafts are somewhat trending in getting the elite college level kid is a "sure'r" thing than a HS kid. The top level HS kids now are going off to college or JC if they arent landing their desired bonuses. That didnt happen pre-2016 because you could just pay a tax and sign them. While Ive agreed that the likelihood of this team "tanking" is remote. Its basically the only way theyre going to get an A list player, and as you can see outside of a KC anomaly you really need those upper tier players to win a WS.

[coolhandluke121]

While Ive agreed that the likelihood of this team "tanking" is remote. Its basically the only way theyre going to get an A list player, and as you can see outside of a KC anomaly you really need those upper tier players to win a WS.

There's plenty of truth to that but there are other ways. Also, when you have so many solid players, there's a good chance a few of those guys will have a an a-list year at any given time, even if they can't do it every year. Gomez and Lucroy peaked not too far below Braun and Fielder levels, and arguably higher if you factor in positional value and defense. If they had just been concentrating on depth and balance all along, maybe those squads would have made the playoffs. They have no a-list players and they nearly made the playoffs even though some of their best prospects haven't even contributed yet. They've obviously built great organizational depth and it's paying off already. Having this kind of cheap controllable depth is terrific and I'll take this type of team year in and year out even if it means not drafting high. I hated those stars-and-scrubs squads that defined most of Mark A's first 10 years.

[El Duderino]

The Brewers star problem.

http://disciplesofuecker.com/the-brewers-star-problem/27328

It's nice that Stearns can find all these 2 WAR guys but that's not going to matter unless we get the 5-7 WAR guys as a core. That's why I've been banging the drum on tanking and drafting high. Yeah, you can trade for an established star and gut your farm system or you can try to trade for a prospect who might become a star but chances are you're going to need a contender with those types of prospects and a current star player to trade them. You can try to get one in free agency but chances are you're going to be outbid. So what option are you left with? Sucking for a few years, getting as much bonus pool money as you can and drafting them yourself.

Except that many of the stars and top young players in baseball weren't top 5 picks.

The top 10 players in WAR via Baseball Reference

Altuve-- International signing
Judge-- 32nd pick first round
Kluber-- 4th round
Scherzer-- 11th pick first round
Stanton-- 2nd round
Votto-- 2nd round
Arenado-- 2nd round
Simmons-- 2nd round
Ramírez-- International signing
Trout-- 25th pick first round

The Indians won 102 games and only Lindor was a top 10 pick.

The Dodgers won 104 games and only Kershaw on their roster was a top 10 pick. Seager went 18th and Bellinger 4th round.

Boston only has Benintendi as a top 10 pick. Among their young studs Betts went 5th round, Devers International signing, Xander Bogaerts International signing.

Other playoff team studs, Goldschmidt 8th round. Jake Lamb 6th round. Robbie Ray 12th round. Rizzo 6th round. Willson Contreras International signing. Kyle Hendricks 8th round. Arrieta 5th round. Didi Gregorius International signing. Gary Sánchez International signing. Luis Severino International signing. etc etc

Sure Houston and the Cubs hit big after their tank, but even among non-playoff teams, a lot of upper tier players weren't top 10 picks, instead they were drafted in a myriad of different round or were International signings.

So to imply that the only way the Brewers can acquire high level players is to be purposely awful is just not true. It takes a mix of skill at drafting and some luck that a player or players develop above their draft spot, a good eye for talent on the international market, and or via trades for prospects.

[El Duderino]

The top of the draft might be good, but there's so many really good players who are drafted later. I don't think the correlation between draft position and productivity is as strong as it is in the NBA, the quintessential tanking league. More importantly, although clearly you need lots of talent in any sport, baseball is not as superstar-driven as basketball or even football, where qb's make such a huge difference even when there's over 50 guys on the team. Look at how the Mariners lost A-Rod, Griffey Jr., and Randy Johnson in such a short time span and then won 116 games. That just wouldn't happen in basketball.

I think the disagreement lies in the probability of getting impact talent via the college level and signable versus hitting on a HS kid. We'll see this again next season with the way drafts are somewhat trending in getting the elite college level kid is a "sure'r" thing than a HS kid. The top level HS kids now are going off to college or JC if they arent landing their desired bonuses. That didnt happen pre-2016 because you could just pay a tax and sign them. While Ive agreed that the likelihood of this team "tanking" is remote. Its basically the only way theyre going to get an A list player, and as you can see outside of a KC anomaly you really need those upper tier players to win a WS.

That's just not true. The small market Indians just won 102 games and barely missed a title last year by smart team building in a variety of ways. The league is also littered with A/B+ level players who were drafted outside the top 10 through later rounds and international signings. Far more than who actually were top 10 picks.

I get that drafting high increases the odds to land impact players and the extra pool money helps also. That's common sense. I just don't buy the narrative though that being terrible and drafting high is pretty much the only shot.

If hypothetically the Brewers were to regress significantly next year and in turn land a high draft spot, I'll be fine with that. If instead they don't and contend for a playoff berth again, i'm not going to ball up into the fetal position and feel like Stearns and the organization then has no chance to build really good teams going forward because there is no reason the believe that has to be the case. MLB isn't the NBA.

[wichmae]

The top of the draft might be good, but there's so many really good players who are drafted later. I don't think the correlation between draft position and productivity is as strong as it is in the NBA, the quintessential tanking league. More importantly, although clearly you need lots of talent in any sport, baseball is not as superstar-driven as basketball or even football, where qb's make such a huge difference even when there's over 50 guys on the team. Look at how the Mariners lost A-Rod, Griffey Jr., and Randy Johnson in such a short time span and then won 116 games. That just wouldn't happen in basketball.

I think the disagreement lies in the probability of getting impact talent via the college level and signable versus hitting on a HS kid. We'll see this again next season with the way drafts are somewhat trending in getting the elite college level kid is a "sure'r" thing than a HS kid. The top level HS kids now are going off to college or JC if they arent landing their desired bonuses. That didnt happen pre-2016 because you could just pay a tax and sign them. While Ive agreed that the likelihood of this team "tanking" is remote. Its basically the only way theyre going to get an A list player, and as you can see outside of a KC anomaly you really need those upper tier players to win a WS.

That's just not true. The small market Indians just won 102 games and barely missed a title last year by smart team building in a variety of ways. The league is also littered with A/B+ level players who were drafted outside the top 10 through later rounds and international signings. Far more than who actually were top 10 picks.

I get that drafting high increases the odds to land impact players and the extra pool money helps also. That's common sense. I just don't buy the narrative though that being terrible and drafting high is pretty much the only shot.

If hypothetically the Brewers were to regress significantly next year and in turn land a high draft spot, I'll be fine with that. If instead they don't and contend for a playoff berth again, i'm not going to ball up into the fetal position and feel like Stearns and the organization then has no chance to build really good teams going forward because there is no reason the believe that has to be the case. MLB isn't the NBA.

The small market Indians have this years Cy Young and last years runner up.

[wichmae]

The Brewers star problem.

http://disciplesofuecker.com/the-brewers-star-problem/27328

It's nice that Stearns can find all these 2 WAR guys but that's not going to matter unless we get the 5-7 WAR guys as a core. That's why I've been banging the drum on tanking and drafting high. Yeah, you can trade for an established star and gut your farm system or you can try to trade for a prospect who might become a star but chances are you're going to need a contender with those types of prospects and a current star player to trade them. You can try to get one in free agency but chances are you're going to be outbid. So what option are you left with? Sucking for a few years, getting as much bonus pool money as you can and drafting them yourself.

Except that many of the stars and top young players in baseball weren't top 5 picks.

The top 10 players in WAR via Baseball Reference

Altuve-- International signing
Judge-- 32nd pick first round
Kluber-- 4th round
Scherzer-- 11th pick first round
Stanton-- 2nd round
Votto-- 2nd round
Arenado-- 2nd round
Simmons-- 2nd round
Ramírez-- International signing
Trout-- 25th pick first round

The Indians won 102 games and only Lindor was a top 10 pick.

The Dodgers won 104 games and only Kershaw on their roster was a top 10 pick. Seager went 18th and Bellinger 4th round.

Boston only has Benintendi as a top 10 pick. Among their young studs Betts went 5th round, Devers International signing, Xander Bogaerts International signing.

Other playoff team studs, Goldschmidt 8th round. Jake Lamb 6th round. Robbie Ray 12th round. Rizzo 6th round. Willson Contreras International signing. Kyle Hendricks 8th round. Arrieta 5th round. Didi Gregorius International signing. Gary Sánchez International signing. Luis Severino International signing. etc etc

Sure Houston and the Cubs hit big after their tank, but even among non-playoff teams, a lot of upper tier players weren't top 10 picks, instead they were drafted in a myriad of different round or were International signings.

So to imply that the only way the Brewers can acquire high level players is to be purposely awful is just not true. It takes a mix of skill at drafting and some luck that a player or players develop above their draft spot, a good eye for talent on the international market, and or via trades for prospects.

Like Ive said a zillion times already you cannot simply compare pre 2016 to now. International slots also are relative to the teams prior years record.

[El Duderino]

The small market Indians have this years Cy Young and last years runner up.

Yea, Corey Kluber, a guy drafted in the 4th round, not 2nd overall who the Indians traded for. And a fabulously put together lineup which finished 3rd in the AL in runs scored. A smart front office mixed with some good fortune as most teams need lead to building a team who was one win from a title last year and 102 wins so far this year.

[El Duderino]

=
Like Ive said a zillion times already you cannot simply compare pre 2016 to now. International slots also are relative to the teams prior years record.

You are overstating this aspect

Altuve wasn't signed to some mega deal on the international market.

Kluber wasn't some mega prospect who couldn't have been had today in the 4th round like he was back when he was drafted.

Trout didn't last to 25th because of pre-2016 rules.

Goldschmidt didn't slide to the 8th round round because of different rules. Same for Kyle Hendricks in the 8th round, Rizzo in the 6th, or the countless other players who always have and always will slip through the cracks and get drafted later than they should have in retrospect. Just as mistakes will be made every year in the first round. It's inevitable.

Yea the teams picking high each draft have an advantage over those picking later between talent at the top and pool money, but this won't change at all what always happens in every draft, a whole bunch of players outside the top 10 and in rounds 2-15ish will end up being really good players simply because their talent was undervalued.

The international market has evened out in more fairness to small market teams compared to the past. Now it's more about which teams have a better eye at scouting mostly raw Latin teenagers, not who has super deep pockets. These slots can also be traded for. This is an overall positive, not a negative for the Brewers and other small market teams.

[Wisky4life]

We just need to comb through the guys we got, keep feeding the farm and sign and trade for a few guys this year to make the team better. Everyone here has had great points and arguments.

I don't think we will tank but I can see us regress next year if we don't make any moves. All in all, I see us making a few moves via trades and free agency and win the same amount of games next year.

[ReasonablySober]

Read on Twitter

Later, Wily.

[Iheartfootball]

There isn't one blueprint to winning a WS. If there was every team would follow it. I'll take my chances with a great season that was one of the most entertaining I've had since the Pat Listach team than rolling the dice to tank for the #1 pick and slot value.

Creativity helps breed success, not black and white thinking.

*edit* So is the thinking that the only way to win is through the draft? I'm not buying that.