nashrambler13 wrote:MrMiyagi wrote:NavLDO wrote:Sorry, but there are so many things I disagree with in this post, I'm not sure where to start, but I guess I'll start with the obvious.
Why, exactly, is Warren on the Bench? Our likely 2nd best all-around player, and he gets relegated to the bench because JJ is 'supposed' to have better defense? You do realize that the coach doesn't sub out 5 starters for 5 subs, right?
Think of it this way; you are Warren. Your career TS% is .544, eFG% of .522, and PER 15.4...your VORP last year was .9, you slashed 14.4/5.1...all numbers better than the guy who was just offered a Max extension, and you are being relegated to the Bench in favor of a Rookie, after having to sit behind PJ Tucker the first almost 3 years? You finally get your shot, just to lose it to a rookie because he was drafted 4th? I'd be livid.
Then, Len has already proven to be woeful as a backup; he needs to start...and no, it has nothing to do with last night. I've been on this bandwagon for years. He's been developed horribly. Let him start. 4 of 5 games he'll manage to stay out of foul trouble long enough to get 28-30 minutes, 15 pts, 12 TRBs, and 2 BLKs a night. Yeah, the other 20% of the games he'll 'goon-up', but it's so much worth it over 'yester-year-Tyson'.
And lastly, kind of back to Warren, but if you are so quick to sit Warren due to his defense for a lesser-offensively gifted talent in JJ (2 x 3-pointers in the 1st preseason game doesn't make him better) then we should sit Booker for Daniels. I mean, Daniels shoots 3s better than Booker, and plays better D. And you are right, it isn't the same thing; but sitting Warren in favor of JJ is not the right or fair answer.
I know, many here think I am anti-JJ, but I'm not. I'm just not in favor of sitting Warren, someone who has finally earned his starting slot, in favor of our new shiny toy, because Warren isn't as 'shiny' anymore. If we are hell-bent on starting JJ, then start Bledsoe-Booker-JJ-Warren-Len. We should be putting our best 5 on the floor in this new 'position-less' NBA, then we can bring in Chriss, Bender, Ulis, DJJ, Daniels, etc.
Because if we don't have TJ in our second unit, our second unit is not going to score. People think too highly of starting. It's not about when you get on the floor, it's about being most effective while on the floor. If these guys want to start winning, I think the best way for that to happen is for TJ to come off the bench.
Also, think of how much better Josh Jackson is going to be if he's not wildly driving into the paint trying to be a #1 option for the second unit? I loved what I saw from him tonight, but he needs to slow it down a little. Having Booker and Bledsoe on the floor should allow him to do just that.
I mean, unless you want to tank this season, having an ineffective second unit is going to hold you back. I believe that Ulis and Warren orchestrating the bench while Bledsoe and Booker orchestrate the starters is our smartest line-up moving forward.
Well my guy Mr. Miyagi already made almost all of my points (and far more succinctly than I likely would have), but I will add a couple of points:
1) I don't think Warren is our second best player, I think Bledsoe and Booker are pretty clearly better.
2) Almost all successful teams don't start their best 5--they space out their players so that every part of the rotation can hold its own. IMO, that becomes WAY easier and more sustainable if TJ becomes the absolute go-to player in the second unit. Also, even if he IS our third best player (not much of a race right now), that doesn't negate the fact that the fit could be better with him on the bench.
3) Warren just got his extension even after we drafted someone at his position at slot 4. He has to realize this is, at the very least, an eventual possibility. He also is totally financially secure-- that was one of the reasons I was so happy about the extension; it allows us to start JJ sooner.
4) You literally used one of the arguments I used for Jackson (he will be better utilized/developed by starting him) for Len. Personally though, I think it is not as relevant in this case. Len is asked to do exactly the same thing as a starter and on the bench; there is no real explanation for his sub-par play thus far in his career. I like Len and I want him to be a useful player for us and I am not wholly against starting him over Tyson. I do think his ultimate destiny, though, is our back-up center (if he stays with the team. It is telling that there was LITERALLY no interest reported from ANY team this offseason, especially since we made no claims about "matching any offer" that usually deters pursuits in RFA).
5) I'm not totally against the idea of starting both, but it still leaves our bench an absolute dumpster fire. I think our starting lineup will undoubtedly be worse than most teams this year no matter how you shuffle it. Our best hope to stay competitive (both now and in the future) is to balance our lineups well.
1) OK, first off, starting does matter to players. Maybe to 'us' fans, WE don;t care who starts, but I GUARANTEE you it matters to Warren. Like I said, he's worked his tail off to be our 2nd best ALL-AROUND player, and we are telling him "Sorry, TJ, we need you to come in with the 2nd unit because your good and we need offense in the 2nd unit." That's BS.
2) As far as who is better, Booker or TJ, don't let 'who is more electric' fool you into who is better. Almost EVERY advanced/statistic shows it FG%, eFG%, TS%, ORtg, DRtg, WS, WS/48, PER, TRB%, VORP, BLK%, STL%, TOV%...all in favor of Warren. Only Asst%, FT%, and 3PT% favors Booker. Why not put Booker in with the 2nd Unit?
3) As far as what I said about Len, there is a HUGE difference between a player in his 5th season, and one in is 1st...c'mon, if you can't see that....
4) And as far as our Bench being a "Dumpster fire", are you saying that JJ is "Dumpster Fire" material? He's good enough to start, but not good enough to be 2nd Unit worthy? Or were you talking only if we started both? Still, as I said, Watson doesn't say "Ok, Bled, Book, JJ, Warren, Len--Out...Ulis, Daniels, Dudley, Chriss, Bender/Chandler--In."
5) Even if Watson did sub-out 5 for 5 (which almost NEVER happens), I don't exactly view view Dudley, Chriss, or Daniels as 'Dumpster Fire' material. And one bad game by Ulis doesn't mean he'll be terrible...
5)...which brings us to even MORE reason to but Booker with Ulis. Ulis shines when with Booker. You want to get the best out of Ulis? Put him with Booker.
But overall, I see NO reason to start JJ over Warren. JJ is a rookie, and would hit a rookie wall anyway 3/4 the way through the season. Let him 'earn' his place, just like Warren had to. If everyone is in favor of us 'winning' as much as possible, then we should start:
Bledsoe, Booker, Warren, Chriss, Len
Then sub in JJ for Warren, giving Warren about 32 minutes, JJ 20 minutes, with 4 of Warren's minutes with JJ on the floor in a 2-SF lineup. Make sure when Bledsoe is spelled, that Booker is there for Ulis. Troy Daniels may be a nice surprise, and can spell Booker with Bledsoe on the floor. Work in Bender when favorable, with Chandler, since Bender can provide the D that Chandler no longer does. And we can't forget about Dudley. He still shot a respectable 38% from 3.
And you never know...maybe the Suns is the team that Bennett breaks out with...ok, I went too far...
Bottom line to all this? Warren has earned the right to start. Even with all his troubles last year, he finished 13th in the league of SFs in VA:
http://insider.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics/_/position/sf/sort/VORP/year/2017Pretty much neck and neck with Booker...he added 5.2 wins, Booker added 5.6. If you consider all the other advanced stats, if Booker has earned a starting spot, Warren sure as heck has.