Predict the Wizards Record '17-'18 season

[dckingsfan]

Well, it's that time again... Win's and ECF standings please. Any outrageous predictions welcome

[dckingsfan]

Last seasons predictions...

Wins
52 - stevemcqueen1
50 - Halcyon
49 - bsilver
48 - Wizardspride
47 - krii
46 - CaPtaiN eYeSaNo, Joe_Wiz
45 - nuposse04, Slartibartfast, phil21, Ruzious
44 - Hidden Eye, fishercob, Error Afflalo, dobrojim, FreeBalling
43 - Dark Faze, TGW, Illmatic12, JAR69, CntOutSmrtCrazy, Earth2Ted, DCZards, Kanyewest, pineappleheadindc
42.5 - Vegas Bookmakers, oddsshark.com
42 - Sluggerface, TheBabyMaker, Dat2U, FAH1223, DANNYLANDOVER, m1chal,Nigel Tufnel, dandridge 10, montestewart, McFilthy, sfam
41 - tontoz, waitingfornextyear.com, ESPN, nate33
40 - gesa2, queridiculo, sashae, WizBiz, dckingsfan
39 - PIF, J-Ves, closg00
38 - MJG, AFM, fivethirtyeight.com, KevinFCheng, verbal8
37 - The Fax, Benjammin, WizTom
36 - CCJ
35 - long suffrin' boulez fan
34 - BigA
33 - WallToWall

Eastern Conference Standings

3rd - bsilver, stevemcqueen1
4th - krii, Joe_Wiz, pineappleheadindc
5th - fishercob, phil21, DCZards, Error Afflalo
6th - nuposse04, Dark Faze, Hidden Eye, Vegas Bookmakers, Illmatic12, Dat2U, FAH1223, fivethirtyeight.com, Kanyewest, FreeBalling
7th - Nigel Tufnel, JAR69, montestewart, sfam
8th - TheBabyMaker, DANNYLANDOVER, m1chal, dandridge 10, Sports Illustrated, Earth2Ted, McFilthy, dobrojim, WizBiz, dckingsfan
9th - tontoz, gesa2, queridiculo, sashae, closg00
10th - PIF, CCJ, AFM, J-Ves, KevinFCheng, The Fax, Benjammin, verbal8,WizTom
11th - long suffrin' boulez fan, BigA
12th - cbssports.com

[dckingsfan]

Final predictions are due before the second game of the season.

ECF standings are the tie breaker - if needed...

[montestewart]

dck, I locked up the Wizards W-L Predictions for the 2017-18 season and compiled these predictions from there.

54 - Wizardspride
53 - dangermouse, JWizmentality
52 - MOrgil, diaboliQ_Mo, CobraCommander, queridiculo, Mojo Amok
51 - J-Ves, europeanfan
50 - Sluggerface, Tricky_Kid
49 - HoopsMalone, NatP4
48 - CCJ
47 - MikeTheKid
45 - FAH1223
42 - long suffrin' boulez fan
41 - verbal8

[Mojo Amok]

From the locked thread....

I'm chiseling 52 wins in the slate based on chemistry, continuity and the more questionable prospect of enough guys on the bench putting things together for that to not be a calamity like it was last year.

A sober top down examination of the individual bench pieces isn't overly flattering, but I'm projecting based on a decent bit of scrap and there's enough guys with a shot at performing that the odds of a few of them actually doing so looks respectable. Satoransky, Meeks and Oubre in particular have looked good to me in preseason for assorted reasons. Mahinmi hasn't looked great in games, but he's lean and I have a fair bit of faith in a healthy Yawn.

Satornasky pulling off a modestly below average offensive season is actually a pretty good rotation player when accounting for his defense, so long as he isn't a total liability spotting up. Meeks easily looks poised to match some of the better seasons he's had. Oubre has seemed to just constantly be around the ball in preseason and looks like a legit breakout threat, but even if he doesn't outright take it to another level, there doesn't seem to be any chance for anything less than incremental improvement.

Overall it could be a decent bench, but with the backup forward slots looking questionable right now. Ideally, Oubre wins a starting slot and Morris gets to drop the jailhouse rock on backups when he comes back.

I don't see any way that they register a top 5 offense given the competition, but they were 7th last year in ORTG and the defense certainly has the potential to be better than 19th. If they could pull off the 6th to 8th rated offense and then maybe 12th or so defensively that should be good for low 50's in wins.

[BigA]

46-36, 4th in the EC

[keynote]

51 wins. 3rd in the East. EC Finals.

[Sluggerface]

After watching preseason, 50 sounds about right. Most models have us between 45-48 wins, but i'm taking the over for a couple of non developmental reasons.

1) Washington was really unlucky on defense last year. It was running around in my mind towards the end of the season. Zach lowe pointed out in his article today that Washington got burned the most out of anybody in the league on open 3pt FG%. I think they're bound to at least play better defensively due to regression to the mean. (I don't see them being juggernauts with no kwahi/green/gobert level stopper, but they should be able to be a middle of the pack team with the talent they do have.)

2) Meeks/Scott were hard to predict going in due to the uncertainty that comes with missing an entire nba season (in Meeks case, almost 2), but early returns look good. Meek's game slides in perfectly with the offense the team likes to run and could be the best off the bench shooter we've had since Martell Webster (I'm not basing this on him just being lights out the past couple of games, his off-ball skills are extremely on point). I don't think Scott has returned to his prime form when he was with the Hawks, but so far he's looked better than Smith, which is a win of itself.

3) I really think the east is going to be even worse than expected. Haven't really walked away impressed with some of the eastern conferences middle class. I know it's a small sample size in preseason. This is more of a gut feeling. If that's true, we're probably looking at finishing above our expected W/L.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I need to point out that Felix is only 2 wins away from statistically tying Morris Almond for the best lifetime Wiz record ever.

[gesa2]

Like Amok, I hope the D will be somewhat better, maybe average. But we were unusually healthy last year If John and Brad stay healthy all year again, we could make it over 50 in the East. But if either goes down for 20-30 games we're screwed. I'll take 46 and hope I'm wrong.

[NatP4]

53 wins 2nd in the east. NBA finals loss to GS. Oubre turns into a stud

[BigA]

Like Amok, I hope the D will be somewhat better, maybe average. But we were unusually healthy last year If John and Brad stay healthy all year again, we could make it over 50 in the East. But if either goes down for 20-30 games we're screwed. I'll take 46 and hope I'm wrong.

Right, this is where I am. I'm still not confident that the Wizards will be able to avoid playing the starters really heavy minutes most nights, particularly John.

[verbal8]

For seed I predict the 6th seed in the East, but I will predict making the 2nd round of the play-offs.

I am still sticking at 41 wins. I think the East overall is weak, but doesn't have a ton of easy wins that would inflate the playoff team win totals. The Bucks are the obvious candidate to leap frog the Wizards.

I don't think the other seeds are necessarily better, but even normal health of the starters will make the Wizards vulnerable during the regular season. Also there is young talent in the East that could easily overachieve and get some unexpected wins.

[montestewart]

53 wins 2nd in the east. NBA finals loss to GS. Oubre turns into a stud

Added 4 wins to your original prediction? I usually wait until closer to the season to guess, but I was thinking your original guess of 49 was a good place to start my own process.

I'm thinking the Wizards 1) got a few lucky breaks to win some close games last year and 2) had fabulous health among their starters. Their bench has the look of being at least marginally better this year, and possibly much more so if Meeks and Scott really can hit their former grooves and Mahinmi can return for a full season. Possibly, Oubre takes a leap forward, but possibly, Gortat (and maybe even Mahinmi) begins to decline just because of age.

Not expecting massive leaps from Wall, Beal, Porter, but all things being equal, I would expect the team to be better than last year. Can all things--Wall, Beal, Porter playing big minutes, without significant injury--be equal? Bullets/Wizards PTSD says probably not. I'll wait to see if anyone's out for three weeks (meaning three months) at the start of the season, then decide.

[NatP4]

I honestly didn’t remember making an original prediction. Yeah I’m encouraged from preseason, the bench looks like it could at the very least be not a dumpster fire. Oubre looks like an impact player

[montestewart]

I honestly didn’t remember making an original prediction. Yeah I’m encouraged from preseason, the bench looks like it could at the very least be not a dumpster fire. Oubre looks like an impact player

It was in the other prediction thread, and those early predictions are a little too early. Most people revise once or twice from those early takes.

[tkunit]

44 wins, injuries happen. Still 4th ineast

[Ruzious]

They hit the golden 50 win level - Who's gonna stop em? There just aren't many good teams in the East. Even without Ochefu, they'll win a lot of games. 3rd in the East.

[DANNYLANDOVER]

I think we finally crack 50 this year (and Ernie gets the key to DC)!
Put me down for 51 wins and 2nd in the East.

[bsilver]

The bench looks better than last year, but the only definite impact addition is Meeks. Other hoped for improvement is from growth of young players, and a healthy Mahinmi.

Holding us back is still our bad defense. Saw an impressive stat the other day. We led the league in highest 3 point percentage allowed. Something like 41.6% Don't see where we've done anything to improve on that.

Since I was the 16-17 winner, I'm going to use the same winning strategy used last year. "Pick a number no one else has taken." Unfortunately, all the likely predictions up through 54 wins are used up. So, my winning 17-18 prediction is 55 wins. 2nd in the East.