RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 (Alonzo Mourning)

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RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 (Alonzo Mourning) 

Post#1 » by trex_8063 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:42 am

1. Michael Jordan
2. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
3. Lebron James
4. Bill Russell
5. Tim Duncan
6. Wilt Chamberlain
7. Magic Johnson
8. Shaquille O'Neal
9. Hakeem Olajuwon
10. Larry Bird
11. Kobe Bryant
12. Kevin Garnett
13. Oscar Robertson
14. Karl Malone
15. Jerry West
16. Julius Erving
17. Dirk Nowitzki
18. David Robinson
19. Charles Barkley
20. Moses Malone
21. John Stockton
22. Dwyane Wade
23. Chris Paul
24. Bob Pettit
25. George Mikan
26. Steve Nash
27. Patrick Ewing
28. Kevin Durant
29. Stephen Curry
30. Scottie Pippen
31. John Havlicek
32. Elgin Baylor
33. Clyde Drexler
34. Rick Barry
35. Gary Payton
36. Artis Gilmore
37. Jason Kidd
38. Walt Frazier
39. Isiah Thomas
40. Kevin McHale
41. George Gervin
42. Reggie Miller
43. Paul Pierce
44. Dwight Howard
45. Dolph Schayes
46. Bob Cousy
47. Ray Allen
48. Pau Gasol
49. Wes Unseld
50. Robert Parish
51. Russell Westbrook
52. ????

Go!

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#2 » by iggymcfrack » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:06 am

Pretty sure I'm voting Zo here, but I feel like Harden and Ginobili have strong cases as well. Will look at in more depth before I make an official vote.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#3 » by SpreeS » Sat Oct 14, 2017 6:34 am

I was looking at this voting from the first day. It became to random from TOP30. Bob Cousy from 71th in 2014 to 46th or Stockton from 26th to 21th. I think need more voters and time for one spot voting.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#4 » by penbeast0 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 1:17 pm

For modern players, I am looking at Manu Ginobili is probably my top guy at the moment. 90s have been picked through pretty well except for Mourning, \Mutombo and the oddity that is Dennis Rodman; GOAT rebounder in regular season, but big dropoffs in the postseason or I'd probably be looking at him here.

80s, Sidney Moncrief had a short career but every time I saw him he was brutally effective, particularly defensively. Bobby Jones is another great two way player with limited time (not length of career for him but minutes per game). On the other end, Adrian Dantley is probably the next great scorer over Nique (and King/Aguirre/Marques who didn't have the longevity even if they peaked higher). To paraphrase LA Bird, the only real argument for Nique over English is style over substance; they scored roughly equivalent amounts but English was more efficient, a clearly superior defender, and he scored them in the context of the Nuggets offense without having to have constant isos run for him. No one left is as offensively impressive to me as English and Dantley except for the shorter modern careers like Westbrook and Harden.

60s guys, I am looking at Sam Jones, Hal Greer, Dave Debusschere, and Nate Thurmond, maybe Chet Walker. Thurmond is hurt by his offense and his team winning a title just after trading him for Cliff Ray. 70s there are a bunch of guys like Daniels, Cowens, Hayes, Reed, and McAdoo just among big men. Of these, I'd rather have Dave Cowens though the stats don't always back me up. But having watched them a lot, he had an Alonzo Mourning attitude with stretch the floor midrange shooting. 50s guys, Arizin and Cousy are the best left plus maybe Neil Johnston, the Amare of the 50s, whose great looking numbers overrate his impact.

Vote: Alex English
Coming off Adrian Dantley, those Utah offenses were ugly
Open to arguments

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#5 » by trex_8063 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 2:39 pm

penbeast0 wrote:Coming off Adrian Dantley, those Utah offenses were ugly
Open to arguments [/size]
[/b]



I'm going to resume the Iverson vs Dantley debate, as to who is providing more lift to poor offensive casts.....

I recorded the available with/without data for all of Dantley's prime ('80-'88, so all prime years in Utah plus the first two years in Detroit---I realize these latter two are not poor supporting casts; it's just the way I'd recorded the data at the time), and have summarized his average effect, which are broken into "non-weighted", "weighted for games played", and "weighted for games missed" categories.
To explain what those mean, I'll provide a hypothetical example: suppose in Year 1 the team was a -2 SRS without him and a -1 SRS with him.....that's a +1 SRS lift. In Year 2, the team is a -2 SRS without him and +1 SRS with him (that's a +3 SRS lift). The non-weighted average of those two years (simple: (1 + 3)/2) is a +2 SRS lift. But let's suppose he missed just 6 games in Year 1, but missed 27 games in Year 2. Weighted for the number of games missed, he averaged a +2.64 SRS lift. Weighted for the number of games played in each year, he provided an average +1.84 SRS lift. Make sense?

Dantley teams overall from '80-'88: 290-321 (.475) with him, 51-76 (.402) without; avg +6.0 wins added per 82-games.
For below, *indicates stat only available '86-'88
Average WOWY effect of Dantley (non-weighted), '80-'88:
+3.3 ppg
+1.26 SRS
*+0.4% TS
*-1.2 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Dantley (weighted for games played), '80-'88:
+3.4 ppg
+1.63 SRS
*+0.4% TS
*-1.5 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Dantley (weighted for games missed), '80-'88:
+2.7 ppg
-0.52 SRS
*+0.8% TS
*+1.8 ORtg


Now I did the same thing for Allen Iverson (have only '99-'06 recorded).....

Iverson teams overall from '99-'06: 251-193 (.565) with him, 39-59 (.398) without him; avg +13.7 wins added per 82-games.
Average WOWY effect of Iverson (non-weighted), '99-'06:
+7.3 ppg
+4.61 SRS
+1.1% TS
+2.3 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Iverson (weighted for game played), '99-'06:
+7.4 ppg
+4.21 SRS
+1.2% TS
+2.5 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Iverson (weighted for games missed), '99-'06:
+7.1 ppg
+2.90 SRS
+0.8% TS
+1.4 ORtg

fwiw, at the time I'd noted that '04 in particular was a decidedly DOWN year for Iverson. I ran the numbers for a somewhat more cherry-picked sample of years ('00-'02 + '05-'06), and he comes out as having roughly a +5 SRS lift and avg +16 wins added per 82 in those years.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#6 » by dhsilv2 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:08 pm

A topic that I think we're getting ready for and one that's a bit difficult is the value of drawing a foul. With Iverson, Harden, wilkens, dantley, and English all getting looked at their ability to draw fouls becomes an interesting topic.

As good as some of our stats are we don't have a way to value getting a player in foul trouble.

Looking at free throw attempts Iverson, Harden and Dantley really stand out (though harden gets a lot of 3 point fouls which I'll argue have less value in this context). Meanwhile English's numbers are rather low and Wilken's are a bit behind the first group.

From here are all missed shots the same thing? I think Trex was pointing out that Iveron's missed shots vs the bucks were leading to a lot of second chance points in the 01 series. I also recall some good writing about how Harden and Howard were doing this when they played together how despite Harden finishes poorly/average at the rim, a far greater percentage of those misses lead to offensive rebounds and ultimately second chance points.

This is one of the reasons I tend to think the stats under value Iverson as many are rather tough on poor field goal percentages, but he was doing a lot in his 41 minutes a game that really wore down the defense and he created opportunities for teammates in perhaps a more unconventional way. This is also in part why I tend to value Harden a bit more than Westbrook (I also think Harden is a better decision maker in that comparison). With that it is also why I'm a bit less high on English. I feel uninformed on Dantley compared to the rest here. And Wilkens seems like the stats are about right for me at least, I don't see him being a jump shooter who doesn't add some of these traits or a guy who really pushed it beyond what you'd expect from a 30 a game guy.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#7 » by penbeast0 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 3:21 pm

If the numbers on Iverson and Dantley were even vaguely resembling close, I could see the arguments, but they are not. Of course Iverson does . . . he missed so much where Dantley misses so few and teams adjust for that. And, even if true and Iverson is slightly undervalued by efficiency while Dantley is slightly overvalued, this doesn't account for anywhere near enough to compensate for the kind of ridiculous, grotesque efficiency difference we are talking about. And, remember there is also the issue of ATG coaching for Iverson in Philly (Larry Brown) v. poor coaching for Dantley in Utah (Frank Layden).

Dantley's Detroit time should logically be compared to Iverson's Denver time. . . except that this time Dantley has the very good coach (Chuck Daly) v. Iverson's slightly above average coach (George Karl) . . . and Dantley's coach raved about his professionalism and complemented his defense which I don't remember from Karl about Iverson.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#8 » by Dr Positivity » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:02 pm

Copying my post on Dantley from the last thread

Dr Positivity wrote:Dantley is one of the hardest players to rank. I understand the argument that if he was scoring that much on that efficiency, it's hard not to have star offensive impact, especially compared to a player like Iverson. But when you look at his career as a whole and the opportunities to be part of a championship core, it looks awful for him:

LA - After his rookie year in Buffalo/Indiana (I don't know much about why he bounced around then), he pairs up with the best player of his generation in Kareem. If he had fit in great with the Lakers, his tenure would carry over to the Magic era and likely lead to multiple titles as the 3rd star. Instead Kareem/Dantley is a bad fit, Dantley is a post up wing who gets in the way of Kareem's spots. The team is seen to have poor chemistry. When they lose Dantley and add Magic it is credited as a massive culture change towards passing and playing as a team. Ftr TrueLAFan who would have been watching the Lakers at the time, was the most anti-Dantley poster on this board in previous versions of this project. I think he said he wouldn't have Dantley in his top 200 or something. That's the type of impression his LA tenure left.

Utah - After Dantley does his one man show during the 80s, the Jazz have rookie Malone and 2nd year Stockton and DPOY Eaton. They don't know what they have yet, but if Dantley had stuck for their primes it would have been the 3rd star Malone/Stockton needed to win a title. Here is an article from 1987 about the trade http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1987-04-03/sports/8701250754_1_kent-benson-kelly-tripucka-moses-malone-trade

There are those who disagree. Jazz president Dave Checketts is one. He and coach Frank Layden tried for months to trade Dantley after the differences between coach and player became irreconcilable.

"I know Detroit is saying the same thing as Washington, that the trade was decidedly one-sided and that is not the case," Checketts said last week. "The biggest benefit to us in the Adrian Dantley trade was addition by subtraction. We knew we had to get rid of him and we were never so happy to get rid of a guy in the history of the franchise."


Yeah, that's up there with the Elvin Hayes quotes for most damning about a star player in history

So then he goes to Detroit. To be fair to Dantley they come within a hair of winning the title, which proves you can win a title with him, they were just as much a championship caliber team as the Lakers. However he appears to not get along the best with Isiah, so they traded him for Isiah's friend Aguirre. The Pistons are 32-13 before the trade and finish the season 31-6 and win the next two titles. The Mavericks are 26-21 before the trade (and 53 and 55 W team the two seasons prior) and finish 12-23 including a 12 game losing streak with Dantley. He declines after that.

Basically if Dantley had the personality and ability to gel with teammates that say, James Worthy had, he could have won championships with any of Kareem/Magic, Stockton/Malone or on the Bad Boys. Instead he basically butted heads with the stars or coach in all those situations and drove himself out of town.

Iverson is difficult as well, but for me I'm not touching Dantley for many more threads than this. Whether it's his personality, black hole offensive game or defense, in terms of his impact on winning there are too many troubling signs in spite of his ridiculous stats. For me its too early for both, I definitely prefer a player like Carter for example to Dantley/Iverson


Intangibles matter. Guys like Reed and Manu had the winner gene, Dantley did not.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#9 » by pandrade83 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 4:18 pm

1st choice: Alonzo Mourning
2nd choice: James Harden


As a 2 Time DPOY winner, Alonzo Mourning is an elite defensive anchor. And we still have a few left who I'll give shout outs to in Mutombo, Wallace, Eaton & Thurmond.

The difference between Mourning & those guys is he really separates himself from them at the offensive end and I don't know if we recognize Mourning for the offensive impact he had.

Mourning was a 6 time 20 PPG scorer who shot between 56-59% TS in those years. His turnover efficiency isn't terrible either at a 15% rate. Mutombo hit the 15 PPG mark just once on worse efficiency than any of Mourning's 20 PPG years, Thurmond creates an offensive drag with his TS%'s - he only hit 50% once in his whole career despite the relatively high volume, & Eaton/Wallace are like playing 4 on 5 offensively.

In this video, Mourning displays a strong ability to move up & down the court along with some competent post moves. He's not Olajuwon down there, but he's not Dwight either.

He has a clear impact on winning that's displayed in his whole career.

'93 - In Charlotte, the Hornets accelerate from 31 wins to 44 wins in his 1st year (note, Larry Johnson's development is probably worth at least a couple of those) as Mourning hits the close-out shot to eliminate Boston. Mourning is a 24-10 player in the playoffs to go with over 3 blocks.
'94 - Charlotte is 35-25 with Mourning in the lineup, just 6-16 without him. Larry Johnson's prime abruptly ends with injuries.
'95 - Mourning is the leading scorer on a team that becomes Top 10 in offensive efficiency and the team improves defensively. They make the playoffs. Mourning plays well in the series to Chicago, averaging 23 & 13; the Bulls don't have an answer for him.
'96 - Miami's roster has significant turnover so it's hard to attribute too much to one guy, but Mourning was brought in for Glen Rice among others & the Heat still improve by 10 wins. They jump defensively from +1.6 to -3.8.
'97 - Mourning anchors the #1 defense in the league as the Heat win 61 games. Miami makes the ECF.
'98 - Potentially a black mark if I'm being honest. The WOWY impact isn't great - 39-19 with, 16-8 without. Not a huge impact there. The Heat are upset in round 1 by the Ewing-less Knicks. This is the year where Johnson & Mourning get in a fight & JVG is clinging to Mourning's leg like an animal. Just a very strange series. It is noteworthy that Miami loses the game Mourning is suspended for in the series vs. NY.
'99 - Mourning leads the Heat to the #1 seed and finishes 2nd in the MVP voting. From a Mourning advocate perspective, you wish you could erase what happened in the playoffs and you also wish he would've more thoroughly dominated Ewing but Ewing always played him tough. Still, Mourning had a great year as the defensive anchor on a team that had the best record in the East & was the lead scorer for a team that finished 2nd in offensive efficiency for the 2nd straight year.
'00 - Miami starts to get old. Mourning drags them to the Atlantic title again, finishing 3rd in the MVP Voting.They still can't get over the Knicks hump & Ewing is inexplicably still effective against Mourning.

The the kidney thing happens - but he still comes back after that as a highly valuable defensive role player & is critical in the FInals win over Dallas in '06. Even post-kidney disease, you still see him battling strong.

But the defensive impact - it never goes away.

There's a couple black marks in there - he gets slowed by post-prime Ewing in those Heat/Knicks series more than he should. In some of the Heat years, the WOWY impact is iffy and the assist numbers are pretty brutal.

But look - we're still talking a guy who was regarded as a Top 5 player multiple years, elite defensive anchor, good (not elite but good) offensive player who led winning teams all the way through and showed a tremendous amount of courage in battling back from kidney disease and exhibited outstanding intangibles - for whatever you value that. Anyone who is brought up is going to have some black marks - & if one of Mourning's biggest black marks is he got slowed by a mentor more than he should in the playoffs? I can live with that more than the warts of others. Even the longevity is better than you might think - 8 very strong years ('93-'00) another strong year ('02), 3 post-prime years as an excellent back-up center; others have better but given the kidney disease, it's better than you might think.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I have limited time so I'll keep it brief on Harden. I think everyone knows the arguments for - this is a recent player so unless you're not paying attention to current basketball, you understand the case for. I'll tackle the case against instead.


Longevity - he has 7 high impact years; so there's a solid base there and I value what he's done in those 7 years over what McGrady has done.

Defense - the full impact of that is already showing up in the team performance - and what he did last year is one of the most impressive carry jobs we've ever seen.

Playoff performance - I get him all time time about his game 6 v Spurs & the '12 Finals. Let's look at those runs in fuller context:
Last year he averaged 29-9-6 58% TS in the playoffs. The 5 TO per game is a bit alarming - but still - pretty strong.

Let's look at '12:

16-5-3 on 61% TS. And as bad as he was in the Finals, I think he was their 2nd best player against the Spurs in the WCF that year.

When we take into consideration the massive peak, and that he has a few years on the same order of magnitude - just not as high - I'm comfortable putting him in here.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#10 » by 70sFan » Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:45 pm

Dr Positivity wrote:Copying my post on Dantley from the last thread

Dr Positivity wrote:Dantley is one of the hardest players to rank. I understand the argument that if he was scoring that much on that efficiency, it's hard not to have star offensive impact, especially compared to a player like Iverson. But when you look at his career as a whole and the opportunities to be part of a championship core, it looks awful for him:

LA - After his rookie year in Buffalo/Indiana (I don't know much about why he bounced around then), he pairs up with the best player of his generation in Kareem. If he had fit in great with the Lakers, his tenure would carry over to the Magic era and likely lead to multiple titles as the 3rd star. Instead Kareem/Dantley is a bad fit, Dantley is a post up wing who gets in the way of Kareem's spots. The team is seen to have poor chemistry. When they lose Dantley and add Magic it is credited as a massive culture change towards passing and playing as a team. Ftr TrueLAFan who would have been watching the Lakers at the time, was the most anti-Dantley poster on this board in previous versions of this project. I think he said he wouldn't have Dantley in his top 200 or something. That's the type of impression his LA tenure left.

Utah - After Dantley does his one man show during the 80s, the Jazz have rookie Malone and 2nd year Stockton and DPOY Eaton. They don't know what they have yet, but if Dantley had stuck for their primes it would have been the 3rd star Malone/Stockton needed to win a title. Here is an article from 1987 about the trade http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1987-04-03/sports/8701250754_1_kent-benson-kelly-tripucka-moses-malone-trade

There are those who disagree. Jazz president Dave Checketts is one. He and coach Frank Layden tried for months to trade Dantley after the differences between coach and player became irreconcilable.

"I know Detroit is saying the same thing as Washington, that the trade was decidedly one-sided and that is not the case," Checketts said last week. "The biggest benefit to us in the Adrian Dantley trade was addition by subtraction. We knew we had to get rid of him and we were never so happy to get rid of a guy in the history of the franchise."


Yeah, that's up there with the Elvin Hayes quotes for most damning about a star player in history

So then he goes to Detroit. To be fair to Dantley they come within a hair of winning the title, which proves you can win a title with him, they were just as much a championship caliber team as the Lakers. However he appears to not get along the best with Isiah, so they traded him for Isiah's friend Aguirre. The Pistons are 32-13 before the trade and finish the season 31-6 and win the next two titles. The Mavericks are 26-21 before the trade (and 53 and 55 W team the two seasons prior) and finish 12-23 including a 12 game losing streak with Dantley. He declines after that.

Basically if Dantley had the personality and ability to gel with teammates that say, James Worthy had, he could have won championships with any of Kareem/Magic, Stockton/Malone or on the Bad Boys. Instead he basically butted heads with the stars or coach in all those situations and drove himself out of town.

Iverson is difficult as well, but for me I'm not touching Dantley for many more threads than this. Whether it's his personality, black hole offensive game or defense, in terms of his impact on winning there are too many troubling signs in spite of his ridiculous stats. For me its too early for both, I definitely prefer a player like Carter for example to Dantley/Iverson


Intangibles matter. Guys like Reed and Manu had the winner gene, Dantley did not.


If Magic had got injured in 1988 instead of 1989, how would lack "winner gene" impact Dantley unability to win the ring? Say all you want, but Pistons had 3 times easier road to championship in 1989 than in 1988. Not to mention that without Dantley injury in game 7 of 1987 NBA finals they would have likely gone to the finals WITH Dantley.

Not to mention that AD was past his prime in Pistons and he was still arguably their best player (at least in 1987). He declined in 1989, but he was old then.

One luck followed by lack of luck made you call Dantley "loser", even though Pistons faced far better competition in 1987 and 1988 than in 1989.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#11 » by trex_8063 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:33 pm

penbeast0 wrote:If the numbers on Iverson and Dantley were even vaguely resembling close, I could see the arguments, but they are not.


This exact same line of reasoning could be used as part of a Wilt > Russell argument, fwiw; but you'd had Russell as your #1.

Not trying to play the "gotcha! game", but......jsia....

penbeast0 wrote:Of course Iverson does . . . he missed so much where Dantley misses so few and teams adjust for that. And, even if true and Iverson is slightly undervalued by efficiency while Dantley is slightly overvalued, this doesn't account for anywhere near enough to compensate for the kind of ridiculous, grotesque efficiency difference we are talking about.


Are you so sure? If so, why (supportive materials?)?


penbeast0 wrote:Dantley's Detroit time should logically be compared to Iverson's Denver time. . . except that this time Dantley has the very good coach (Chuck Daly) v. Iverson's slightly above average coach (George Karl) . . . .


I just figured up the average WOWY effect of Dantley during ONLY his prime years in Utah.....

Overall of Utah Prime Years (‘80-’86): 195-266 (.423) with him, 40-73 (.354) without him; avg +5.7 wins added per 82 games.
WOWY effect of ‘80-’86 Dantley (Non-weighted)
+5.1 ppg
+1.85 SRS

WOWY effect of ‘80-’86 Dantley (weighted for games played)
+5.6 ppg
+2.38 SRS

WOWY effect of ‘80-’86 Dantley (weighted for games missed)
+2.9 ppg
-0.30 SRS


Again, just for comparison to Iverson's prime Philly years ('99-'06)......
trex_8063 wrote:
Iverson teams overall from '99-'06: 251-193 (.565) with him, 39-59 (.398) without him; avg +13.7 wins added per 82-games.
Average WOWY effect of Iverson (non-weighted), '99-'06:
+7.3 ppg
+4.61 SRS
+1.1% TS
+2.3 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Iverson (weighted for game played), '99-'06:
+7.4 ppg
+4.21 SRS
+1.2% TS
+2.5 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Iverson (weighted for games missed), '99-'06:
+7.1 ppg
+2.90 SRS
+0.8% TS
+1.4 ORtg

fwiw, at the time I'd noted that '04 in particular was a decidedly DOWN year for Iverson. I ran the numbers for a somewhat more cherry-picked sample of years ('00-'02 + '05-'06), and he comes out as having roughly a +5 SRS lift and avg +16 wins added per 82 in those years.



I know it seems counter-intuitive, but there it is. Coaching aside (that too could be used as a "write off" argument in a Wilt > Russell debate, btw), the degree of impact these two offensive stars had for offensively poor (and generally mediocre-poor overall) casts is not particularly close (SRS lift like >+2.5 higher for AI).
I think it's illustrative that often it's necessary to look further than just volume and shooting efficiency when evaluating offensive stars (even if they're not Magic/Nash/Lebron level passers). In some instances there's so much more nuance to explain the end result.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#12 » by iggymcfrack » Sat Oct 14, 2017 8:40 pm

Voting for Alonzo Mourning:

-14th in overall RAPM from 97-14, a time period which misses 5 peak years and catches 6 post peak seasons.

-45th all-time in PER, a metric he's almost assuredly underrated in due to his elite rim protection and 6 seasons he played far below peak value after his kidney disease.

-4th all-time in block percentage, 6th all-time in blocks per game, 11th all-time in blocks, seriously an elite rim protector throughout his career including leading the playoffs in block percentage (and TS%) at age 35 on a team that won a ring.

Yes, Zo has some injury and longevity issues, but he still played more than Westbrook or Reed, and I think with the value of his defense, his peak is probably Top 20 all-time.


Alternate: Manu Ginobili

Very impressed with the RAPM here as it ranks him #4 overall from 97-14 between Shaq and KG. I thought maybe that him coming off the bench would be a factor that breaks RAPM somehow and makes him look better than he is, but he actually scores better in the years where he started every game, ranking 1st in 2005, 3rd in 2006, and 2nd in 2011.

While his durability is a major issue during the regular season, let's be honest, the NBA is all about the playoffs and in the playoffs he generally plays more minutes and scores very highly in cumulative value metrics, ranking 16th in playoff VORP and 20th in playoff WS.

And let's not forget the 4 rings, 2 of which he was a major factor for. In 2005 specifically, he was very impressive, putting up a 24.8 PER on .652 TS% playing 34 MPG. He also led the playoffs in offensive win shares that postseason.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#13 » by penbeast0 » Sat Oct 14, 2017 9:51 pm

trex_8063 wrote:
penbeast0 wrote:If the numbers on Iverson and Dantley were even vaguely resembling close, I could see the arguments, but they are not.


This exact same line of reasoning could be used as part of a Wilt > Russell argument, fwiw; but you'd had Russell as your #1.

Not trying to play the "gotcha! game", but......jsia....

penbeast0 wrote:Of course Iverson does . . . he missed so much where Dantley misses so few and teams adjust for that. And, even if true and Iverson is slightly undervalued by efficiency while Dantley is slightly overvalued, this doesn't account for anywhere near enough to compensate for the kind of ridiculous, grotesque efficiency difference we are talking about.


Are you so sure? If so, why (supportive materials?)?


penbeast0 wrote:Dantley's Detroit time should logically be compared to Iverson's Denver time. . . except that this time Dantley has the very good coach (Chuck Daly) v. Iverson's slightly above average coach (George Karl) . . . .


I just figured up the average WOWY effect of Dantley during ONLY his prime years in Utah.....

Overall of Utah Prime Years (‘80-’86): 195-266 (.423) with him, 40-73 (.354) without him; avg +5.7 wins added per 82 games.
WOWY effect of ‘80-’86 Dantley (Non-weighted)
+5.1 ppg
+1.85 SRS

WOWY effect of ‘80-’86 Dantley (weighted for games played)
+5.6 ppg
+2.38 SRS

WOWY effect of ‘80-’86 Dantley (weighted for games missed)
+2.9 ppg
-0.30 SRS


Again, just for comparison to Iverson's prime Philly years ('99-'06)......
trex_8063 wrote:
Iverson teams overall from '99-'06: 251-193 (.565) with him, 39-59 (.398) without him; avg +13.7 wins added per 82-games.
Average WOWY effect of Iverson (non-weighted), '99-'06:
+7.3 ppg
+4.61 SRS
+1.1% TS
+2.3 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Iverson (weighted for game played), '99-'06:
+7.4 ppg
+4.21 SRS
+1.2% TS
+2.5 ORtg

Average WOWY effect of Iverson (weighted for games missed), '99-'06:
+7.1 ppg
+2.90 SRS
+0.8% TS
+1.4 ORtg

fwiw, at the time I'd noted that '04 in particular was a decidedly DOWN year for Iverson. I ran the numbers for a somewhat more cherry-picked sample of years ('00-'02 + '05-'06), and he comes out as having roughly a +5 SRS lift and avg +16 wins added per 82 in those years.



I know it seems counter-intuitive, but there it is. Coaching aside (that too could be used as a "write off" argument in a Wilt > Russell debate, btw), the degree of impact these two offensive stars had for offensively poor (and generally mediocre-poor overall) casts is not particularly close (SRS lift like >+2.5 higher for AI).
I think it's illustrative that often it's necessary to look further than just volume and shooting efficiency when evaluating offensive stars (even if they're not Magic/Nash/Lebron level passers). In some instances there's so much more nuance to explain the end result.



The big difference in the Russell case is defensive value, he's arguably the biggest outlier on either side of the ball in NBA history and the numbers show that. For Iverson and Dantley you are comparing offense, at least for the part of their value that makes people think of them as top 100 players, and the numbers for offense are a lot more related to value.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#14 » by trex_8063 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:41 am

penbeast0 wrote:The big difference in the Russell case is defensive value, he's arguably the biggest outlier on either side of the ball in NBA history and the numbers show that. For Iverson and Dantley you are comparing offense....


In a more broad sense, in BOTH comparisons we're just comparing impact, and how that impact occurs in ways which are not well-captured in the box-based metrics. "The numbers" you refer to [the ones the show Russell's outlier impact status] are the team results and WOWY-type information........the same basic method I've been using in comparing Iverson to Dantley.
In that way, the Iverson/Dantley debate we've been having is very very similar to the Russell/Wilt debate:

Dantley > Iverson in box-based metrics.**
Wilt >>> Russell in box-based metrics.

Iverson > (or maybe >>) Dantley in apparent impact.
Russell >> Wilt in apparent impact.

Both of the latter two happen in ways we can't really explain based on the recorded box; one has to look at the WOWY team results and relate that to what we see on the court.

EDIT: Edited in the "**" by the implied gap between the two on box-based. Wanted to mention that I don't think it's worth more than one ">" in that comparison, again because we're looking at rate metrics and Iverson is an [almost extreme] outlier in his era (or any surrounding era) in how many mpg he played. While most stars in surrounding eras were out there for 35-39 mpg, Iverson was routinely out there for 42-44 mpg.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#15 » by trex_8063 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:00 am

It gets harder and harder to pick a player. I see perfectly valid cases for probably about 8 different guys for right here. So I'll preface my picks by saying that I'm not remarkably set on anyone at this stage; likely won't be dead set on specific individuals for the rest of the way, tbh (unless there's someone I think highly of who simply gets "left behind" at a later stage). But I otherwise think there will always be 6-10 (maybe more) valid candidates for any spot from now on.

But you do have to take a stand with someone.
I've been arguing in Iverson's favor recently (posts 5, 11, and 14 itt), mostly showing indicators of his impact via WOWY data. He's somewhat a puzzler for because much of our conventional wisdom wants to say that someone shooting that much on mediocre efficiency can't be doing much good. That's where I went looking at other potential explanations....

I'd previously noted that he seems to break down defenses in ways that force the help D on [ultimately missed] shots that he's still able to get up on to the tin, while his big teammates have no one boxing them out (because their defenders went to help/contest on Iverson); and indeed saw a general trend of increased team OREB% associated with Iverson's presence thru most of his prime.
I also noted he's a pretty decent playmaker, and has a quite low turnover rate for the scoring and assist attempts he's responsible for.
While he doesn't play exclusively off-ball, he also isn't really a ball-stopper with the ball.
And I'd also noted his ridiculous mpg (increasing his degree of impact per game).

All of these things can help explain his impact (which seems more substantial than efficiency-minded advanced metrics would imply).

Past that, I think even if you give him a marginal discount on his awards/honors/accolades/MVP shares (labeling undeserved), these types of "accomplishments" combined with his statistical profile still easily gives him valid candidacy at this stage of things.

Difficult to build around or play with? Seems probably so, but we're long past the point of perfect people, and anyway the very same can be said of other current candidates, soon-to-be candidates, or even a few already inducted (Elvin Hayes, Adrian Dantley, Dennis Rodman, Rick Barry, Dwight Howard, etc).

For my alternate, I'm going with a guy with fair/decent (but not great) longevity, who was an outstanding offensive big, albeit an inconsistent (and perhaps more often leaning toward poor) defensive big who nonetheless appears to have had BIG impact through the vast majority of his career (thru multiple casts and coaches).

1st vote: Allen Iverson
2nd vote: Bob Lanier
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#16 » by trex_8063 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:49 am

Thru post #15:

Alonzo Mourning - 2 (iggymcfrack, pandrade83)
Alex English - 1 (penbeast0)
Allen Iverson - 1 (trex_8063)


Thread will go to runoff in just over 24 hours.
btw--Still need an alternate pick from you, pen.

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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#17 » by penbeast0 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:02 am

I will throw Manu Ginobili in there as an alternative pick. I don't like low efficiency volume scorers or bigs who don't play strong defense so Iverson and Lanier aren't close for me yet with so many other great players out there. I could also go with Sam/Bobby Jones but Manu is getting mentions, the others aren't really yet.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#18 » by scrabbarista » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:20 am

52. Elvin Hayes
53. Dave Cowens


For combined (RS) points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals, Elvin Hayes is 9th in the history of the NBA and ABA combined.

9th and 52nd!

Hayes was the most productive player on the '78 Bullets title team, although Unseld was generally more heralded.

Hayes' MVP finishes, in spite of the fact that apparently not a single person with a vote actually liked him:

1971-72 NBA 0.006 (17)
1972-73 NBA 0.021 (10)
1973-74 NBA 0.082 (5)
1974-75 NBA 0.299 (3)
1975-76 NBA 0.018 (8)
1976-77 NBA 0.020 (7)
1978-79 NBA 0.126 (3)

Hayes also led the league in scoring in '69 (his rookie season), and was a 12x All-Star.

For me, his combination of longevity and production for a championship team make him too hard to ignore.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#19 » by dhsilv2 » Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:24 am

penbeast0 wrote:If the numbers on Iverson and Dantley were even vaguely resembling close, I could see the arguments, but they are not. Of course Iverson does . . . he missed so much where Dantley misses so few and teams adjust for that. And, even if true and Iverson is slightly undervalued by efficiency while Dantley is slightly overvalued, this doesn't account for anywhere near enough to compensate for the kind of ridiculous, grotesque efficiency difference we are talking about. And, remember there is also the issue of ATG coaching for Iverson in Philly (Larry Brown) v. poor coaching for Dantley in Utah (Frank Layden).

Dantley's Detroit time should logically be compared to Iverson's Denver time. . . except that this time Dantley has the very good coach (Chuck Daly) v. Iverson's slightly above average coach (George Karl) . . . and Dantley's coach raved about his professionalism and complemented his defense which I don't remember from Karl about Iverson.


To be honest the bigger point is to move Dantley up and move english down. However my interest was in a discussion on the topic and not on just the players. As I think we'll want to discuss this idea more and more over the next 40 48 choices.
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Re: RealGM 2017 Top 100 List #52 

Post#20 » by Dr Positivity » Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:43 am

Vote: Bob Lanier

I feel he has a good combination of high level peak for players here (by any of MVP, WS, BPM) and a regular career's worth of longevity. Good portability and intangibles. The only thing he's missing is being on the right teams.

2nd: Manu Ginobili
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